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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 24th of January 2022

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The Markets Are Wilding Title: Bar, Las Vegas, Nevada Artist: Robert Frank
World Of Finance

29-NOV-2021 ::  Regime Change

There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.
There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. Paul Tudor-Jones

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Liquidity in equities continues to evaporate. The speculative garbage has been silently massacred & now broader indices slip –– bids are becoming more scarce. @FadingRallies
World Of Finance

Liquidity in equities continues to evaporate. The speculative garbage has been silently massacred & now broader indices slip –– bids are becoming more scarce. Vol expansion in the face of thin market depth intensifies the impact of flows. Remember, liquidity is short volatility.

The Music has been playing for Eternity and its about to stop

Love Fellini. So brave, with that whiff of insanity. @DiAmatoStyle Federico Fellini's 8 1/2 @tcm

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The nearly 15% plunge in the Nasdaq Index since Nov high @Schuldensuehner
World Of Finance

Mirrors on the ceiling, The Pink champagne on ice

Last thing I remember, I was Running for the door

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– C.P. Cavafy, “The City”. Boulevard de Ramleh, Alexandria, ca. 1880 @CCavafy

“The city will be following you. In the same streets
you’ll wander. And in the same neighbourhoods you’ll age,
and in these same houses you will grow grey.”

– C.P. Cavafy, “The City”.

[Boulevard de Ramleh, Alexandria, ca. 1880]

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Consider The Possibility That This Is Already The Dystopia You Fear @caitoz

Consider the possibility that the powerful are already getting everything they want from you, right now, exactly as things are, and that any suspicious action you see them taking isn’t them constructing a cage for you but them tightening the bolts on a cage that was quietly built around you some time ago.
Consider the possibility that while they’ve been training you to watch out for communism and microchips and overt totalitarianism, they’ve been covertly transforming us all into mindless gears in a machine constructed to serve their interests which challenges them in no way, shape or form.
Consider the possibility that tyrants have evolved an understanding that you can exert a lot more control over a population with mass-scale psychological manipulation than you can with overt force, and that they have been developing the science of that mass-scale psychological manipulation for over a century.
Consider the possibility that we’re like a woman who always feared winding up in a physically abusive relationship like the kind depicted on television, and then wound up in a psychologically abusive relationship where her very mind is bent to the will of her abuser in every way.
Consider the possibility that just like in a psychologically abusive relationship, we’re manipulated into believing things are fine and that we give our abuser everything he wants of our own free will and that any problems that arise come from us and not our abuser, and that we are so well-trained at this that we’ve even learned to gaslight ourselves.
Consider the possibility that governments forcefully seizing control of all media and transforming them into official state propaganda outlets would actually be far less efficient at mass brainwashing than our current system in which people believe they are getting accurate information from a free and honest press.
Consider the possibility that if the powerful were able to surgically implant microchips in our brains and control everything we think and do, what they’d make us think and do would not be significantly different from what the overwhelming majority of us already think and do.
Consider the possibility that the dystopia we’ve been worried about has already been ushered in, not from any of the directions we’ve been conditioned to anticipate, but through the simple fact that the human mind is far more hackable than we’ve been conditioned to believe.
Consider the possibility that while we’ve been trained to fear communist authoritarians taking over and forcing us to obey their will, capitalist authoritarians have had us marching to the exact drumbeat they desire for generations. And we only think this is freedom because we’ve been trained to think that.
Consider the possibility that you’ve been trained to believe freedom looks like being able to buy a gun which we all know you’ll never use against the powerful, or choose from 197 kinds of potato chip at the grocery store, when really that mindless consumption is just you turning the gears of your own prison.
Consider the possibility that real freedom isn’t being able to consume whatever advertisers have convinced you to consume, it’s being able to think with a mind that has not been molded by the powerful, to educate yourself in an information ecosystem that is not locked down by those who rule over you, and to speak the truth without having your speech stifled by oppressive dominators.
Consider the possibility that the only thing keeping us from creating heaven on earth is our inability to clearly see what’s going on in our world and thus strategize a truth-based path out of this mess, and that the powerful know this, and that that’s why they work so hard to keep us from seeing clearly.
Consider the possibility that the real obstacle to terrestrial harmony is not so much opposing ideologies as the fact that all attempts to see clearly what’s really going on in our world are being actively obstructed by propaganda, by Silicon Valley manipulation, and by government secrecy.
Consider the possibility that the bastards succeed not by overtly quashing dissent but by covertly quashing all will towards dissent, and that we succeed not by trying to ward off a dystopia that’s already here but by working to awaken the giant within our brothers and sisters from its propaganda-induced coma.
Consider the possibility that real freedom means all of humanity awakening from our dehumanizing role as brainwashed gear-turners for the capitalist machine and uncorking the wild unpredictable brilliance within us that our oppressors have worked so hard to keep bottled up.
Consider the possibility that there is so much more to us than we’ve been permitted to know, and that the only thing keeping us from achieving our true potential as a species at this point in history is a propaganda-induced misunderstanding of what is freedom and what is slavery.

"Consider the possibility that the Orwellian dystopia you fear is already here and has been in place for many years, you just haven’t noticed because you’re still allowed to watch Netflix or buy a gun or say whatever you want to say within a small impotent online echo chamber." @DeCrooRodney

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My Struggle: Book 2: A Man in Love | Karl Ove Knausgard

What would it have been like to live in a world where the American Indians still lived their lives in peace? Where that life was an actual possibility? Where Africa was unconquered? Where darkness came with the sunset and light with the sunrise? Where there were too few humans and their tools were too rudimentary to have any effect on animal stocks, let alone wipe them out? Where you could not travel from one place to another without exerting yourself, and a comfortable life was something only the rich could afford, where the sea was full of whales, the forests full of bears and wolves, and there were still countries that were so alien no adventure story could do them justice, such as China, to which a voyage not only took several months and was the prerogative of only a tiny minority of sailors and traders, but was also fraught with danger.

where before man wandered through the world, now it is the world that wanders through man.

However, this is not so strange, for we never feel more strongly and passionately about life than in our teenage years, when we step into the world for the first time, as it were, and all our feelings are new feelings.

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My Struggle: Book 2: A Man in Love | Karl Ove Knausgard |

‘Have I told you about the time my grandma saw red northern lights?’

I shook my head.

‘She saw them when she was out walking. The whole sky was red, the light billowed backwards and forwards, it must have been beautiful, but also a bit doomsday-like. When she came back and told us no one believed her. She barely believed it herself, red northern lights, who’s ever heard of that? Have you?’


‘But then, many, many years later, I was out with my mother in Humlegården late one night. And we saw the same thing! We have the northern lights here now and then, it’s rare, but it does happen. That night they were red! Mummy rang grandma as soon as she was home. Grandma cried. Later I read about it and discovered it was a rare meteorological phenomenon.’

Apart from the light from the television, which was on in the corner, with the sound turned down, the flat was in total darkness. The autumnal darkness was like an ocean outside the windows.

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Machiavelli: „There’s nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, then to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. Because this is what Russia’s doing now. @vtchakarova

Amid bifurcation of the global system, think of Machiavelli: „There’s nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, then to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things.“  Because this is what Russia’s doing now.

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@JoeBiden is in a Pincer with Xi & Vladimir holding the console & ratcheting up the pressure & [and] they own the timing on the Ukraine Taiwan Two Step
Law & Politics

The POINT remains @POTUS has to do a deal with Putin in order to avoid triangulation in the new Tri Polar World

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Moscow has put its conditions on the table. /4 @vtchakarova
Law & Politics

Putin sees this optimal window of opportunity to test the readiness of US for bilateral talks with Moscow but also the red line for future  concessions if Washington really intends to get Russia out of China’s orbit in the long term. Moscow has put its conditions on the table. /4

5 DEC 16 :The Parabolic Rebound of Vladimir Putin

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NEW: We will not tolerate Kremlin plot to install pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine #StandWithUkraine @trussliz
Law & Politics

The Kremlin knows a military incursion would be a massive strategic mistake & the UK and our partners would impose a severe cost on Russia.

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Not so: after losing a few soldiers the Russians withdraw (as they did in Chechnya) @ELuttwak
Law & Politics

My call for a Ukraine national militia of quick-trained volunteers to attack stopped Russian columns opportunistically (the Finnish model)  is misrepresented as a call for an endless guerilla war. Not so: after losing a few soldiers the Russians withdraw (as they did in Chechnya)

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Xi Jinping's far-reaching anti-graft campaign has ushered in an era of immaculate governance in China @XHNews
Law & Politics

The plenary sessions of the top disciplinary agency of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) are usually tone-setting times for China's anti-graft work.
It was at such a meeting nine years ago, when Xi Jinping, who was just about two months into his role as general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, vowed to crack down on high-ranking "tigers" as well as lower-level "flies" involved in corruption.
In the ensuing years, Xi's far-reaching anti-graft campaign has ushered in an era of immaculate governance in China, with people's trust in the leadership continuing to grow.
This week, addressing the sixth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), Xi stressed rigorous and unswerving efforts in further promoting full and strict Party governance.

Xi compares corruption to poison and often cites an ancient proverb to emphasize the resolve of "scrapping poison off the bone" to maintain the Party's "good health."
The anti-graft campaign calls for "no mercy." It's about preventing and eliminating corruption and ensuring that officials are honest, the government is clean, and political integrity is maintained.

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Chinese Wisdom in Xi's Words: Extravagance, an ominous sign of peril @XHNews
Law & Politics

23-AUG-2021 :: There is a fluidity at the Apex of World Power and this brings friction, increases risk and creates ‘’Geopolitical’’ Tail Risks across the spectrum.

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Soviet humor on Nazi forces massing on the Czechoslovakian border in 1938: @Kasparov63
Law & Politics

"Why are there so many troops?"
"In case of a provocation."
"What if there's no provocation?"
"How could there not be with so many troops?!"

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.@BorisJohnson has told friends: Bring it on. @thetimes
Law & Politics

The interview left his supporters bewildered and his critics scenting blood. “Why the f*** was he speaking to Beth Rigby [Sky News political editor] for 16 minutes,” one senior Conservative said. 

“It’s mental. He’s been avoiding her for ages. It’s probably out of a desire to be out there and to be seen but his authority is just shot. He’s a lame duck. It’s a question of days and weeks now, not months.” 

Even in No 10, some senior figures acknowledge that his description of a Downing Street party he attended in the first lockdown as a work event was stretching credulity. 

His defence in the interview that “nobody said this was something that was against the rules” attracted more derision.
A government figure who spoke to Johnson’s No 10 team said they were “totally delusional”. 

“They’ve convinced themselves that Gray will exonerate him and they can just go back to how things were before. It’s rubbish. The only people who think he can go on and on are in No 10.” 

The confidence inside No 10 has been evaporating.
One insider said that the atmosphere in No 10 was like being in a “nest of adders”. 

“Everyone is turning on one another. There is a really terrible atmosphere in the place. Most of the people who work in No 10 are officials who are motivated by service and doing the right thing,” said one source
One government source said while conversations with MPs suggested that Johnson would comfortably survive a confidence vote, there was a strong suspicion that many MPs weren’t being truthful. 

“There is no confidence in what we’re being told,” they said. “We know some people are lying to us. The question is how many.” 

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Israel Omicron COVID case explosion is rediculous! @jmlukens

443/day (1-Dec-2021)
6,121/day (1-Jan-2022)
64,147/day (22-Jan-2022)

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

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Having ~40% of the population infected by a single pathogen in the span of 8 weeks is remarkable and I can't think of an obvious modern precedent. @trvrb

Having ~40% of the population infected by a single pathogen in the span of 8 weeks is remarkable and I can't think of an obvious modern precedent. Flu seasons generally have perhaps 10% infected in the span of 16 weeks. 8/9

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Yesterday, 3,896 covid deaths were reported in the United States, the tenth deadliest day of the whole pandemic and the deadliest since the pre-vaccination surge last winter. @dwallacewells

Yesterday, 3,896 covid deaths were reported in the United States, the tenth deadliest day of the whole pandemic and the deadliest since the pre-vaccination surge last winter. Over the last four days, the total is 12,957. 

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Henri Cartier-Bresson, Cité interdite, Pékin 1948 @AngeloSiati

28-MAR-2021 we are seeing a sustained acceleration in mutant viruses.

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Vaccine A was made to stop Virus A. Virus A mutated into Virus B. Vaccine A does not stop Virus B. @kksheld

The executive branch of the US federal government mandates mass vaccination of the entire US population with Vaccine A To stop Virus B. Incoherent policy defies trust of the people.

23-AUG-2021 ::  We have now crossed peak Vaccine Euphoria

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Ralph Baric lecture about coronaviruses from February 2020 at the University of North Carolina.The viruses are quite clever. H/T @made_in_1971 @x2IndSpeculator

Is a scientific publication considered misinformation or even disinformation if emails of the authors are later released showing that they had a different private stance and likely did not believe in their own public arguments? @Ayjchan

01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of #COVID19

What is clear is that the #COVID19 was bio-engineered.
“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”― Thomas Pynchon

 “There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.” Delillo

“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. ” ― William S. Burroughs

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Guess who are the conspirators. @Rossana38510044

"They deliberated in secret. They used burner phones. They spoke only to their trusted colleagues. This went on for more than a month from late January 2020 to early March."

04-JAN-2021 :: Today only the Paid for Propagandists and Virologists will argue that there is a ''zoonotic'' origin for COVID19.

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Or The @federalreserve could entertain the novel idea of a sharp interest rate rise a la Volcker
World Of Finance

The FED must believe the Economy is like a patient that needs permanent etherisation

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.131790
Dollar Index 95.797
Japan Yen 113.833
Swiss Franc 0.91400
Pound 1.35404
Aussie 0.71571
India Rupee 74.52255
South Korea Won 1194.465
Brazil Real 5.46025
Egypt Pound 15.747739
South Africa Rand 15.103500

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8 JAN 18 :: The Crypto Avocado Millenial Economy.
World Currencies

The ‘’Zeitgeist’’ of a time is its defining spirit or its mood. Capturing the ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Now is not an easy thing because we are living in a dizzyingly fluid moment.

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27 NOV 17 :: Wow! What a Ride!
World Currencies

Let me leave you with Hunter S. Thompson, “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”

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In order to fabricate, I always need the trampoline of reality. -Mario Vargas Llosa

The Lotos-eaters 

"Courage!" he said, and pointed toward the land, "This mounting wave will roll us shoreward soon."

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eah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro
World Of Finance

GameKyuubi posted "I AM HODLING," a drunk, semi-coherent, typo-laden rant about his poor trading skills and determination to simply hold his bitcoin from that point on.
"I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time. Still wrong. w/e," he wrote in reference to the now-famous misspelling of "holding."
"WHY AM I HOLDING? I'LL TELL YOU WHY," he continued.
"It's because I'm a bad trader and I KNOW I'M A BAD TRADER.  Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro."
He concluded that the best course was to hold, since "You only sell in a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob.  The people inbetween hold. In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell."
He then confessed he'd had some whiskey and briefly mused about the spelling of whisk(e)y.  [HODL Definition | Investopedia]

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South Africa's Omicron wave vs. its Delta wave: a comparison of cases, hospital admissions, confirmed deaths, and excess mortality. @enn_nafnlaus

Note: does not account for the younger cohort and better immunity on one hand, nor the assumed lower percentage of detected cases on the other.

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The high excess mortality relative to deaths - to me raises the question of whether the wave has triggered deaths that are not classed as "COVID deaths" due to a lack of the characteristic lung pathology. @enn_nafnlaus

The high excess mortality relative to deaths - and even surprisingly high relative to hospitalization rates - to me raises the question of whether the wave has triggered deaths that are not classed as "COVID deaths" due to a lack of the characteristic lung pathology.

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OUAGADOUGOU, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Gunfire rang out from several military camps in Burkina Faso early on Sunday, the government said, but it denied the military had seized power.

Heavy arms fire at the capital Ouagadougou's Sangoule Lamizana camp, which houses the army's general staff and a prison whose inmates include soldiers involved in a failed 2015 coup attempt, began at least as early as 5:00 a.m. (0500 GMT), a Reuters reporter said.

The reporter later saw soldiers firing into the air in the camp. A witness also reported gunfire at a military camp in Kaya, around 100 kms (62 miles) north of Ouagadougou.
Burkina Faso's government confirmed gunfire at some military camps but denied reports on social media that the army had seized power.
"Information on social networks suggests a takeover by the army. The government, while confirming gunfire at certain barracks, denies this information and calls on the population to remain calm," government spokesman Alkassoum Maiga said 

Among the inmates at the Sangoule Lamizana camp prison is General Gilbert Diendere, who was a top ally of Burkina Faso's former president, Blaise Compaore. Compaore was overthrown in a 2014 uprising.
Diendere led a failed coup attempt the following year against the transitional government. He was sentenced in 2019 to 20 years in prison. 

He is also currently on trial in connection with the killing of Compaore's predecessor, Thomas Sankara, during a coup in 1987.

10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator

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For all their propaganda, neither side can claim victory is in sight. @Africa_Conf

Neither is preparing for an end to hostilities. This war of attrition looks set to stretch into much of the new year, and possibly beyond.
Over the past three months the balance of forces has moved decisively, but not irreversibly, in favour of the federal government in Addis Ababa. 

Sporadic but devastating air raids by the federal air force on military targets and civilian centres kept up the pressure on Tigray in early January.
At first glance, the retreat of Tigrayan forces last month had looked like a complete defeat, but the reality is different. 

Without doubt, the TPLF regional government and the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) are facing a strategic dilemma. 

For now, they have few defences against the federal forces which have been deploying Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones with UMTAS missiles to devastating effect

The federal air force has added to the pressure by bombing what it identified as three training grounds in Mekelle as well as logistics centres at Shire, Abiy Adi and Korem.
The drone and bombing campaign cut many of the TDF's supply lines, forcing it to abandon its southward march in early December. 

Yet the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) was further weakened during the previous five months when the Tigrayan forces were advancing on Addis Ababa.
One military source in the capital, quoting from official reports, reckons the federal soldiers and regional militia could have lost up to half their force strength of some 400,000 personnel. 

Those losses have made the federal government press ahead with its mass recruitment drive, albeit of inexperienced and untrained youths. The TDF also managed to loot large quantities of fuel and armaments.  

Weeks before the federal soldiers entered Kombolcha on 7 December, much of the TDF had left the city and immediate environs, securing vantage points in the highlands from which it launched strikes against the incoming forces. 

Likewise, when the federal forces took back the historic town of Lalibela in Amhara region, with its churches hewn from rock, the TDF fighters moved to the surrounding hillsides to fire on the soldiers as they arrived. 

So successful was this tactic that the TDF retook the town, before withdrawing again in early December (AC Vol 62 No 23, Rebel advance drives a diplomatic flurry).
We hear federal officers relayed reports of these tactics back to officials in Addis Ababa, warning that the headline news of captured towns and cities was costing the lives of thousands of their soldiers.

All sides are continuing to recruit, preparing for the next chapter of the war. 

Military sources in Addis Ababa and well-connected Tigrayans report that the TDF has over 200,000 fighters, some say double that, and it is training still more.

In a region of just over seven million where many farmers have served in militaries and militia over the years, the dividing line between an organised regional army and an irregular one is blurred. 

More than definitions, the critical factors are military skills, tactical acuity and supplies. It is the last that is Tigray's greatest vulnerability.
The Tigray forces may have lost several field commanders during the air strikes but it was no rout. 

Senior officers in the TDF  coordinated the withdrawal to ensure minimum loss of personnel and logistics. 

They also managed to inflict heavy losses on federal forces around Dessie and Gashena in Amhara, and Alamata in southern Tigray over about five weeks in late November and December.
Those losses raise questions about the federal forces' ability to maintain security in northern Amhara and southern Tigray, even with military aid from China, the Gulf, Iran and Turkey.

 All these countries, we hear, are stepping up military backing for Addis Ababa (AC Vol 62 No 21, At the mercy of friends).
More problematic for regional politics, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are supplying surveillance and intelligence services. 

Yet they are also strong allies of Egypt, whose government has every interest in seeing a weakened Ethiopia

The fight between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is far from over, although international attention has been diverted towards Addis Ababa's war with Tigray (Dispatches 9/7/21, Dam solidarity in North Africa).

Break out

So far, Tigray's forces have had little answer to federal bomber jets or drone strikes. 

And their withdrawal to their home region means they can do little to break what amounts to a continued blockade on aid to the region.
That could prompt the TDF commanders to try to break out of the region in the coming weeks – unless there is some progress on ceasefire talks, which looks unlikely – and there have been ongoing skirmishes and reports of a build-up of Tigray's forces on its borders. 

Although Abiy's government released some TPLF veterans, including one of its founders Sebhat Nega, from prison on 7 January, the prime minister has repeatedly argued that dialogue with the current TPLF leadership is impossible (AC Vol 63 No 2, Prisoners' release sparks war cries). 

That was why the government rejected the ceasefire offer, and why many of its Amhara supporters insist that disarming the TPLF is an essential war aim.
For Tigray's forces, the status quo of bombardment and blockades is also untenable. 

One way of trying to break the blockade would be for them to march on Humera, which lies near the Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan border and is controlled by the ENDF and Amhara Fano militia.
Worried about the vulnerability of the Humera area last month, Abiy asked the Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF) to secure the route, said an insider in Addis

Now the EDF has stationed two mechanised and three infantry divisions, well over 30,000 soldiers, on the Humera border 
March south
Another option for Tigray's forces would be to launch a second wave of targeted attacks towards Addis Ababa, Gondar and Bahir Dar, calculating that they would have battlefield superiority over the ENDF. 

Whether the TDF chooses to go north-west towards Humera or south towards Gondar and Addis, it would mark a new cycle of conflict and yet another escalation.
Should the Tigrayan commanders opt to shore up defences around their region, they are likely to continue to clash with federal forces and their allies in the regional militias, especially in the disputed section of southern Tigray and around Mai Tsebri town. 

The ENDF is improving its position by expediting training and federalising the regional militia such as Fano in Amhara and the Afar forces. 

Together with Eritrean forces, the ENDF and its militia allies are keeping up the pressure on Tigray's northern and southern borders.
The batch of prisoner releases on 7 January, which included senior Tigray and Oromo figures, triggered searing criticism from leading Amhara politicians calling for a tougher prosecution of the war. 

These contrary pressures on Abiy, as regional officials and international organisations urge him to expedite the promised national dialogue and open ceasefire negotiations, will make it difficult to pull back from his proclaimed aims of defeating all insurgents.

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November 8, 2020 .@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.

JUL-2021 :: The Contagion will surely boomerang as far as Asmara and destabilise the Horn of Africa for the forseeable future.

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Sri Lanka option for counter-insurgency Death of the Tiger @newyorker Jon Lee Anderson H/T @jamescrabtree

In military circles around the world, the “Sri Lanka option” for counter-insurgency was discussed with admiration. 
Its basic tenets were: deny access to the media, the United Nations, and human-rights groups; isolate your opponents, and kill them as quickly as possible; and segregate and terrify the survivors—or, ideally, leave no witnesses at all.

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According to @IMFNews Ivorian economy grew an average of 7.8% each year between 2013 and 2019, the fastest growth rate in the world. @thecontinent_

The African Development Bank predicts that it will continue to recover, with real GDP growing by 6.5% in 2022.

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They are only too happy to lick the spittle of those who falsely claim superiority @LindiweSisuluSA @PresidencyZA

“The lack of confidence that permeates their rulings against their own speaks very loudly, while others, secure in their agenda, clap behind closed doors.”

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The EFF surrenders a key progressive principle @NewFrame_News

Until recently, the EFF’s sternest critics had to concede that the party had held a principled line on xenophobia towards African migrants. 

With all the major parties taking xenophobic positions, the EFF, an entirely unscrupulous organisation in other respects, seemed to hold to a principle rooted in a commitment to pan-Africanism.

The EFF may have some control over how its “ground forces” conduct themselves in this turn to organised xenophobia. 

But it’s one thing to start a fire under controlled circumstances. It’s another to throw petrol on an already out-of-control fire. 

The EFF’s actions do not only take place in a context where political parties are taking dangerous right-wing positions on migration, with ActionSA and the Patriotic Alliance being among the most crude. 

They also take place in a society in which there is a general dehumanisation of migrants and both the formal and informal power exercised by the state is routinely xenophobic. 

Small but vociferous xenophobic organisations such as the self-proclaimed Umkhonto weSizwe veterans who trashed migrant stalls in Durban and the All Truck Drivers Foundation engage in xenophobic violence with impunity. 

In many wards in Durban local ANC structures now include “business forums”, usually openly armed organisations that, in classic Mafia style, demand access to tenders and private business, often under open threats of violence. 

In some parts of the city, it is now common for people making deliveries to be stopped, told to turn back at gunpoint and the business for which they are making the delivery visited and forced to contract that delivery work to the local “business forum”. 

It is all too easy to imagine a situation in which this turn to institutionalised gangsterism could intersect with xenophobia with horrific results. 

It is also important to be mindful that there is a now long history of politicians actively seeking to incite regional and ethnic divisions. 

Helen Zille’s comments about people from the Eastern Cape being “refugees” in the Western Cape are well known. 

In the elite public sphere, it is less well known that ANC politicians regularly tell people living in shacks that they cannot expect to get government support while they have “foreigners” among them. 

In Durban it has, for years, been routine for ANC politicians to tell people that they do not have decent housing because the province has been “flooded” by people from the Eastern Cape. 

Sometimes derogatory language is openly used to describe amaMpondo. This has resulted in violence on occasion.

If someone from Flagstaff is presented as being an illegitimate resident of Durban it is clear that someone from Lilongwe, Harare or Karachi has no chance of receiving a warm reception. 

In the context of mass impoverishment and the desperation that it creates, the routine way in which rights and entitlements are, in practice, tied to identity and place of origin is an extremely dangerous situation. 

These are all valuable lines of analysis. 

But there is also a long history of xenophobia in the formerly colonised world. Elites have repeatedly sought to scapegoat migrants, along with ethnic minorities, as the people become aware of what Frantz Fanon called the “treason” of their rulers. 

In 1961, he wrote that “foreigners are called on to leave; their shops are burned, their street stalls are wrecked”.
He could have been writing about the EFF when he remarked that “we observe a permanent see-saw between African unity, which fades quicker and quicker into the mists of oblivion, and a heart-breaking return to chauvinism in its most bitter and detestable form”.

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Africa’s First Heat Officer Faces a Daunting Task @business

From a distance, Kroo Bay, a slum in Sierra Leone’s capital of Freetown, resembles a gigantic overheating engine: Thousands of rust-colored tin shacks stand in rows under the sweltering West African sun, divided only by trash-filled streams of sewage.
“It’s warm, warm, warm,” says Mariama Barrie, a 34-year-old mother of three who rents a one-room hut in the heart of the poverty-stricken district. “It feels like we’re being cooked alive. We’re cooking like pigs in here.”
Barrie, who sells homemade charcoal for income, says she suffers from chest pains and breathing difficulties due to the heat, particularly during Sierra Leone’s scorching December-to-April dry season, when temperatures can soar above 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit).
“I don’t understand why it’s happening,” says Barrie, shaking her head when asked if she knows what climate change is. “But I know it’s getting warmer.”

Freetown, like many cities around the world, is increasingly threatened by dangerous temperatures. 

A study published in the scientific journal PNAS last year found that extreme heat exposure in 13,115 cities nearly tripled between 1983 and 2016, affecting 1.7 billion people. 

The researchers found that the health risk of extreme heat is “highly unequal and severely impacts the urban poor.”

To confront the issue, Freetown announced a new hire in November: a chief heat officer, the first in Africa.
Eugenia Kargbo, who works as an advisor to Mayor Yvonne Aki-Sawyerr, has been tasked with raising public awareness of extreme heat, improving protection and responses to heat waves, and collecting, analyzing and visualizing heat impact data across this city of 1.2 million people, using tools like Freetown’s tree database Treetracker.
“Climate change is in front of us now,” says Kargbo. “The heat is already here and it’s unbearable. What we’re experiencing in Freetown right now has never happened before — it’s unprecedented. We need adaptation, not just mitigation. I need to make my city a safer, cooler place.”
In 2017, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ranked Sierra Leone third, after only Bangladesh and Guinea Bissau, on its list of countries most vulnerable to climate change

Many of these risks are concentrated in its capital and largest city, where a combination of civil war, climate-change-induced crop failure and rural poverty helped fuel explosive urbanization. 

Some 35% of Freetown’s population live in 74 informal settlements such as Kroo Bay, often in disaster-prone areas like the seafront or hillsides. 

Homes are typically temporary structures made of “heat trap” metal sheets. 

In 2017, flooding and mudslides killed more than 1,000 people in Freetown and last March a fire in a slum made 7,000 people homeless.
“The city’s population is exploding around us and that’s putting a lot of stress on the city,” says Aki-Sawyerr. “It’s like living in a pressure cooker.”
Kargbo’s role is part of an Atlantic Council-led initiative that has also brought heat officers to Miami-Dade County and Athens, Greece; Los Angeles and Phoenix have hired officials dedicated to fighting extreme heat at their own initiative. 

Like her counterparts in the U.S. and E.U., Kargbo plans to combat rising temperatures with a mix of infrastructural and policy changes. 

She’s leading Freetown’s project to plant a million trees and build 48 urban gardens, working with telecommunications companies to send out weather warnings, and constructing “cooling centers” with shade and water in slums. 

There’s also a plan to improve sanitation by creating waste collection jobs for 800 youths. 

“The work Eugenia is doing is not just for Freetown,” says Aki-Sawyerr. “The human cost of extreme heat is something all cities need to learn about.”

Other heat officers in Africa may soon follow: Kargbo says she has been advising other Sierra Leonean mayors, as well as the mayor of Liberia’s capital, Monrovia.

Kathy Baughman McLeod of the Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center, which has funded the first year of chief heat officers in Freetown, Athens and Miami-Dade, says she expects one to be on every continent by the end of the year.

“We are intent on being flexible for communities and mayors,” she says. “How best will they address the role? We will try for a year and see how it goes.”
Following a few months of success, McLeod says Miami has already incorporated the heat officer role into its budget. 

But in cities like Freetown, where many residents live in extreme poverty and municipal services are far more fragile, “there’s a different set of challenges,” she says. The post may require more long-term support. 

“We will maybe be there in year two and three and four, but we want to make sure it works,” McLeod says. “This is an experiment. But this role is perhaps more important in Africa than other regions.”
Mayor Aki-Sawyerr underlines those disparities. “In Athens, they decided to install water fountains around the city, but only 47% of people in Freetown have access to running water,” she says.
Lack of data is another barrier. The number of people exposed to heat waves between 2000 and 2016 increased by 125 million, according to the World Health Organization

But in sub-Saharan Africa, researchers say that data can be understated. Autopsy and mortality figures, Aki-Sawyerr says, are not reliable. 

And the mayor doesn’t know the city’s precise population. “It’s only an estimate of between 1.2 and 1.5 million,” she says. “We need to know the real numbers to make improvements.”
Though African countries account for only 3.8% of global greenhouse gas emissions — a share dwarfed by China, the U.S., and the E.U. — experts believe the continent is likely to feel the heat more than other regions, and its residents, many of whom depend on subsistence agriculture, are more acutely threatened by drought and flooding. 

The World Meteorological Organization has warned that Africa’s overall GDP will decrease by 2.25% to 12.12% due to extreme heat.
Anna Steynor, head of climate services at the University of Cape Town’s Climate System Analysis Group, says that, given the “vulnerable development context” of African cities, “any increase in extremes or heat over time is going to have a huge impact, more so than on developed cities.”
The dangers posed by extreme heat in urban Africa have hitherto been widely overlooked, Steynor says; heat officers can play a crucial role in raising awareness. 

“We’ve seen that champions are incredibly important in driving change,” she says. “Extreme heat is an insidious effect of climate change that people often don’t think about.”
Densely populated and surrounded by water on three sides, Freetown stands to be a challenging stage for heat mitigation efforts. 

At Kroo Bay, which is gradually expanding towards the sea onto unstable and exposed land, there’s no space for trees to be planted, according to Murray Alie Conteh, councilor for the surrounding Ward 431.

Extreme weather has a number of knock-on effects in slum settlements like his. 

Crowding and unregulated construction bring higher risks of fire, while poor sanitation increases flood risk and leads to mass mosquito breeding. “It’s getting hotter and hotter,” says Conteh. “At the end of the day, it’s disastrous.”

Adamsy Fornh, a 43-year-old mother of eight who sells home-cooked food, knows that risk as much as anyone. 

She lived uphill in one of the more established parts of Kroo Bay until 2015, when in the middle of night her home began to burn down. “They just shouted: ‘fire, fire, fire’,” she says. “I left everything behind.”
Now Fornh, who is tending to her newborn grandchild outdoors, lives almost on the water’s edge: The slum has sprawled to a once-uninhabited, marsh-like shore. “We’ve got nowhere else to go,” she says. “We’re pleading for help.”

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Most structures in Kroo Bay are metal shacks — unforgiving environments during periods of extreme temperatures. Photo: Peter Yeung/Bloomberg CityLab

23-NOV 2015 I cannot help feeling we are like frogs in boiling water. We have created massive interference in the "cosmic tuning" phenomenon

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In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.

Lorenz wrote:
"At one point I decided to repeat some of the computations in order to examine what was happening in greater detail. I stopped the computer, typed in a line of numbers that it had printed out a while earlier, and set it running again. I went down the hall for a cup of coffee and returned after about an hour, during which time the computer had simulated about two months of weather. The numbers being printed were nothing like the old ones. I immediately suspected a weak vacuum tube or some other computer trouble, which was not uncommon, but before calling for service I decided to see just where the mistake had occurred, knowing that this could speed up the servicing process. Instead of a sudden break, I found that the new values at first repeated the old ones, but soon afterward differed by one and then several units in the last decimal place, and then began to differ in the next to the last place and then in the place before that. In fact, the differences more or less steadily doubled in size every four days or so, until all resemblance with the original output disappeared somewhere in the second month. This was enough to tell me what had happened: the numbers that I had typed in were not the exact original numbers, but were the rounded-off values that had appeared in the original printout. The initial round-off errors were the culprits; they were steadily amplifying until they dominated the solution." (E. N. Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos, U. Washington Press, Seattle (1993), page 134)[7]
Elsewhere he stated:
One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.

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Market Indicators The NASI declined by 0.2% Market capitalization declined by 0.2% @ouma_timothy
N.S.E General

The NSE 25 and NSE 20 share price indices increased marginally by 0.6% and 0.1%

The NASI declined by 0.2%

Market capitalization declined by 0.2%

Equity turnover declined by 15.8%

Total shares traded declined by 7.2%

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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January 2022

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