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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 02nd of February 2022
 
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Africa

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The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff - Carl Sagan, Cosmos
Misc.

We now know that Nearly half of the atoms that make up our bodies may have formed beyond the Milky Way and travelled to the solar system on intergalactic winds driven by giant exploding stars, astronomers claim. 



The dramatic conclusion emerges from computer simulations that reveal how galaxies grow over aeons by absorbing huge amounts of material that is blasted out of neighbouring galaxies when stars explode at the end of their lives.
“Science is very useful for finding our place in the universe,” said Daniel Anglés-Alcázar, an astrono- mer at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois.
“In some sense we are extragalactic visitors or immigrants in what we think of as our galaxy.”
“Our origins are much less local than we thought,” said Faucher-Giguère.
“This study gives us a sense of how things around us are connected to distant objects in the sky.” 

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If we ever encounter extraterrestrials, we will likely be meeting eons-distant atomic-level cousins billions of evolutionary years ahead of us. We can't conceive time on that scale @GilRGlover
Misc.

If we ever encounter extraterrestrials, we will likely be meeting eons-distant atomic-level cousins billions of evolutionary years ahead of us. We can't conceive time on that scale, so we mostly leave these mysteries to our poets and shamans and preachers of shapeshifting.

Don DeLillo, who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one of his short stories:
http://bit.ly/2CGuGDd

The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable poignancy”.
He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm officers at Colorado Command:
“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”
“We copy. There’s a voice.”
“We have gross oscillation here.”
“There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure it’s helping.”
“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”
“Thank you, Colorado.”
“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the step-function quad.”
“It was a voice,” I told them.
“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”
The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest sadness”.
“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60 years ago.”

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Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives... on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam. –Carl Sagan
Misc.


"This place is a dream. Only a sleeper considers it real. Then death comes like dawn, and you wake up laughing at what you thought was your grief." - Rumi




 "We're like butterflies who flutter for a day and think its forever." Carl Sagan @ZonePhysics




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It is certainly possible that Putin will backdown, but then the buildup will have been a strategic failure for Moscow. NATO countries will consider future buildups as bluffs and will draw the lesson @RALee85
Law & Politics


It is certainly possible that Putin will backdown, but then the buildup will have been a strategic failure for Moscow. NATO countries will consider future buildups as bluffs and will draw the lesson that increased arms exports to Ukraine were decisive and will send more arms.


24-JAN-2022 ::  The Charge of the Light Brigade



Conclusions

I err on the side 

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[of] Machiavelli: „There’s nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, then to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. Because this is what Russia’s doing now. @vtchakarova
Law & Politics

Amid bifurcation of the global system, think of Machiavelli: „There’s nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, then to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things.“  Because this is what Russia’s doing now.

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George Soros says Xi could be toppled Financial Review @mcranston1
Law & Politics


Chinese President Xi Jinping could be replaced once his economic and COVID-19 control policies prove to be a failure following the Winter Olympics, billionaire George Soros says.
Mr Soros, the retired hedge fund manager who has long warned groups such as BlackRock against investing in China because of its authoritarian regime, likened the upcoming Winter Olympic Games to a Nazi Germany propaganda stunt.

Like Germany in 1936, [China] will attempt to use the spectacle to score a propaganda victory for its system of strict controls,” Mr Soros told think tank Hoover Institution’s forum on China on Monday (Tuesday AEDT).
But the striking prediction from the 91-year-old, who maintains China is the greatest threat to open societies in the world, is that the Xi regime could be replaced this year as his economy and pandemic responses fail.
“Xi Jinping has many enemies. Although nobody can oppose him publicly because he controls all the levers of power, there is a fight brewing within the CCP that is so sharp that it has found expression in various party publications,” Mr Soros said.

“Xi is under attack from those who are inspired by Deng Xiaoping’s ideas and want to see a greater role for private enterprise.”
Xi elevated to same status as Mao
Mr Soros’ comments run counter to the widely held view that Mr Xi will win an unprecedented third five-year term as leader later this year.
A meeting of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials in November endorsed his official re-examination of the country’s modern history, which elevates his achievements to the same status as those of revolutionary founder Mao Zedong.
Mr Xi has also silenced most detractors, which means public criticism of his policies is rare. 

However, experts say there is no way to read exactly what is going on at the party’s top levels.
Mr Soros cast doubt on the elevation of Mr Xi’s status.
“Given the strong opposition within the CCP (Chinese Communist Party), Xi Jinping’s carefully choreographed elevation to the level of Mao Zedong and [successor] Deng Xiaoping may never occur,” he said.
“It is to be hoped that Xi Jinping may be replaced by someone less repressive at home and more peaceful abroad. This would remove the greatest threat that open societies face today, and they should do everything within their power to encourage China to move in the desired direction.”
Mr Soros’ speech is just his latest against the Chinese leader. Last year he warned several times against closer economic ties with the world’s No. 2 economy, as the Chinese government tightens its grip on the private sector.
Mr Soros praised efforts by Western leaders such as US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Prime Minister Scott Morrison to counter China’s increased military and economic aggression.
“Biden has made it clear to Xi Jinping that if he uses force against Taiwan, China will have to confront not only the US but a larger alliance composed of the AUKUS, that is Australia, United Kingdom and the US and the QUAD that is US, Japan, Australia and India, together with a number of other potential allies,” Mr Soros told the forum.
“War between the US and its enemies has become more plausible and that is not a pleasant subject to contemplate.”
Mr Soros’ prediction of a regime change is predicated on the ultimate mismanagement of COVID-19 and tightening controls on the population. 

The potential for a massive property sector collapse that infects the entire economy will expose Mr Xi’s flaws in governance, he said.
The real estate crisis, characterised by huge debt and triggered by the failure of real estate company Evergrande, could be felt more abruptly in the second quarter of this year, Mr Soros predicted.
“China is facing an economic crisis centred on the real estate market. The model on which the real estate boom is based is unsustainable. In my opinion, the second quarter of 2022 will show whether [Xi] has succeeded. The current situation doesn’t look promising for Xi.”
He pointed to Evergrande subcontractors who did not get paid and who then stopped working, and how people who had bought apartments started to worry that they might never receive the homes they were paying for.
China’s adherence to a zero-case virus strategy that has led to harsh lockdowns for millions of people could also prove to be Mr Xi’s undoing.
“All Xi Jinping can do now is to impose a zero COVID policy. This involves severe lockdowns at the slightest sign of an outbreak, but this is having a negative effect on economic activity,” Mr Soros said.
He outlined broader problems with China, including grossly understated demographic changes.
“The birthrate is much lower than the published figures indicate. Experts calculate that the actual population is about 130 million lower than the official figure of 1.4 billion. This is not widely known, but it will aggravate the real estate crisis, produce labour shortages, fiscal strain and a slowdown in the economy,” he said.
He also insisted that China’s artificial intelligence will not be used effectively by the regime, but will still make warfare between it and the US more competitive.
“This development has had far-reaching political consequences. It has sharpened the conflict between China and the United States and has given it an entirely new dimension.
“One might think that Xi Jinping, who collects personal data for the surveillance of his citizens more aggressively than any other ruler in history, is bound to be successful ... but this is not the case,” Mr Soros said.

Conclusions

This is wishful thinking on Mr. Soros's part


09-NOV-2020 :: The Single biggest Issue remains how Biden engages with the Algorithmic Master [Blaster] and Sun Tzu Maestro



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Controlling the COVID19 Narrative, suppressing the Enquiry, parlaying the situation into one of singular advantage marks a singular moment
Misc.

 


Xi Jinping has exhibited Chinese dominance over multiple theatres from the Home Front, the International Media Domain,  the ‘’Scientific’’ domain over which he has achieved complete ownership and where any dissenting view is characterized as a ‘’conspiracy theory’’
It remains a remarkable achievement


Actually I think Xi Jinping has been singularly brave and bold a la the Mellon doctrine. 


Mellon doctrine Territory. Mellon believed that economic recessions, such as those that had occurred in 1873 and 1907, were a necessary part of the business cycle because they purged the economy. 
In his memoirs, Hoover wrote that Mellon advised him to “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. ... enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.”




 

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Soros Criticizes Xi for Handling of China Economy, Virus
Law & Politics


Xi has taken calculated risks. The muscular and multi-faceted nature of Chinese Power is seen in its handling of COVID19


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Dominic Raab tells @BBCRadio4 that Boris Johnson's (false) claim about Keir Starmer failing to prosecute Jimmy Savile was merely... the cut and thrust of Parliamentary debates and exchanges @PickardJE
Law & Politics



“Akhund is probably best known as one of the architects of the destruction of the Buddhas of Bamiyan, the giant cliff statues destroyed by the Taliban in 2001” @aaolomi answering who is the new Taliban leader is @ConversationUS
https://bit.ly/3GjtAZA

22-JUN-2020 :: Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World

https://bit.ly/3hQcdEE

The Bamiyan Statues  And it all left me wondering Who exactly is controlling the Console?

And then I recalled
‘’You remember those twin statues of the Buddha that I told you about? Carved out of a mountain in Afghanistan, that got dynamited by the Taliban back in the spring? Notice anything familiar?" Thomas Pynchon
"Twin Buddhas, twin towers, interesting coincidence, so what." "The Trade Center towers were religious too. They stood for what this country worships above everything else, the market, always the holy fuxxing market." [Thomas Pynchon]

And it all left me wondering Who exactly is controlling the Console?
Is this Statue toppling business a Gladwellian and metastatic type Event?

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Note to self we are NOT in a post-pandemic world: COVID is a disease, which as of last week was killing at least 8000 people every day @adam_tooze
Misc.


The Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved #COVID19
https://bit.ly/3szfEo5

Bearing in mind that R0 for SARS2 is probably at least 3-4 if not more times that of flu, the IFR comparison tells us very little about relative annualized risk of death for example. @ArisKatzourakis


Bearing in mind that R0 for (just to pick two random viruses as an example) SARS2 is probably at least 3-4 if not more times that of flu, the IFR comparison tells us very little about relative annualized risk of death for example.

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Arguably the laziest and most damaging cognitive error of the pandemic is not appreciating that lagged outcomes like deaths don’t reflect current threat in a rising epidemic. @AdamJKucharski
Misc.

Arguably the laziest and most damaging cognitive error of the pandemic is not appreciating that lagged outcomes like deaths don’t reflect current threat in a rising epidemic. Remember: first UK COVID case was identified on 31 Jan 2020 - first death was reported on 5 Mar.

29-NOV-2021 ::  #Omicron Regime Change
https://j.mp/32AZEK5

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The transmissibility of #Omicron is not in question, it clearly has a spectacular advantage.
Misc.


The Open Question is whether it is more virulent. If it is less virulent then #Omicron is breaking the Trend of increasing virulence.
https://j.mp/32AZEK5

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Nations w/ high COVID19 2wk avg death/day increase #Omicron @jmlukens
Misc.


Japan: 650%
Israel: 589%
Brazil: 255%
Pakistan: 225%
Bangladesh: 218%
Uruguay: 214%
Morocco: 195%
Argentina: 166%
Colombia: 148%
Peru: 143%


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Denmark lifted *all* restrictions, while cases are soaring. The international reaction: Disbelief. @M_B_Petersen
Misc.

I am leading the largest Danish project on pandemic behavior & I am advising the gov.
Here is why Danes are still supportive. And what may be learned from this.

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What is happening in Israel? And why isn't it happening (yet?) in the West Bank? @greg_travis
Africa


The origin of every emerging virus in recent decades was traced: In no case did the trail go cold or the scientific community lose interest. Till now. Today is the 2nd anniversary of the Farrar-Fauci phone call @mattwridley


The origin of every emerging virus in recent decades was traced: HIV, Lassa, Marburg, Hanta, Ebola, SARS, MERS, Nipah, Hendra, zika... In no case did the trail go cold or the scientific community lose interest. Till now. Today is the 2nd anniversary of the Farrar-Fauci phone call

01-MAR-2020 ::  The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19

https://bit.ly/39khd1W

What is clear is that the #COVID19 was bio-engineered. 

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.12736
Dollar Index 96.265
Japan Yen 114.7270
Swiss Franc 0.920985
Pound 1.3523
Aussie 0.713785
India Rupee 74.83500
South Korea Won 1203.420
Brazil Real 5.2659
Egypt Pound 15.709800
South Africa Rand 15.25444

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Another breakout on agricultural commodities as Ammonia prices make new highs. @TaviCosta
Commodities


Pay close attention to this, it’s just getting started.

Big implications in food prices still ahead of us.

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The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rose as much as 21 basis points to 6.89%, the highest since July 2019. @business
Emerging Markets


India’s benchmark bond yields surged to the highest in two and a half years after the government unveiled plans to issue record amount of bonds in the next financial year. 

“India government bonds are facing a double whammy,” said Harish Agarwal a bond trader at FirstRand Bank in Mumbai. 

“Without any support, the yields are set to jump to 6.95% to 7% in the coming days.”

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rose as much as 21 basis points to 6.89%, the highest since July 2019. The rupee fell 0.2% to 74.74 per dollar.
The government’s gross borrowing is estimated at about 15 trillion rupees ($200.7 billion) in the fiscal year starting April, according to the budget documents, much higher than 13 trillion rupees forecast in a Bloomberg survey. 

The target for the current year is 12.06 trillion rupees. Net borrowing, excluding maturities for next year, is estimated at 11.2 trillion rupees. 

Bond yields have climbed more than 40 basis points in 2022 as the RBI ramps up its liquidity withdrawal in an effort to gradually normalize policy and amid rising global yields. 

The central bank has also stopped its bond purchases and banks, the biggest buyers are already overstocked, resulting in a demand-supply imbalance. 

“The bond market has now to focus on inflation trajectory and mammoth borrowings next year,” said Sandeep Bagla, chief executive at Trust Mutual Fund. 

“The next big event is the RBI decision and their reaction to the budget.”
The central bank will outline its rate decision on Feb. 9.

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The United Arab Emirates will introduce a federal corporate tax on business profits for financial years starting on or after 1st June 2023 @MwangoCapital
Emerging Markets

The tax is a standard statutory tax rate of 9^ and a 0% tax rate for taxable profits up to AED375,000 to support small businesses & startups

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Somaliland Offers U.S. Military Access to Port, Airfield as It Pushes for Nationhood @WSJ
Africa


Somaliland is offering the U.S. military use of a seaport and airfield overlooking strategic maritime routes in exchange for steps toward recognizing the region as a sovereign country.
Hoping to capitalize on growing U.S. concern over Chinese expansionism in Africa, Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi is planning a March visit to Washington

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The Malian order of expulsion for the French ambassador. @hofrench
Africa


Conclusions

Wildcard forecast. But the Goita administration in Mali will probably itself be overthrown in the coming months


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Putschologie @Usmaan_Aali
Africa

Turning To Africa
https://bit.ly/35ekJJr

Democracy has been shredded.
We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

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ECOWAS is overwhelmed. It doesn't have the bandwidth to handle so many crises, in the midst of a pandemic, while every member faces huge domestic issues. @gyude_moore
Africa

In events like these, the regional hegemon shoulders most of the cost of collective action - not sure Nigeria is able or ready

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Gross foreign #reserves in #Tanzania stood at $6.6bn (-3.1% m-o-m, +36.4% y-o-y) at end-November. During 2021, @OEAfrica
Africa

Tanzania’s gross foreign reserves benefited from an increase in export receipts, FDI inflows, and IMF-related support.

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Uganda’s shilling is expected to keep strengthening against the dollar in the short-term, adding to gains of 1.4% in January and 0.3% in December as the flow of foreign funds increase. @BBGAfrica
Africa


Some $10 billion of oil projects investment will boost inflows
Currency is the fifth-best performer in Africa so far in 2022

“It is a combination of low demand and increased dollar inflows,” according to Benoni Okwenje, general manager for financial markets at Kampala-based Centenary Bank Ltd. 

“Dollar inflows from NGOs are constant while there’s been an increase in returns from coffee on higher volumes and better global markets.”
In the past two months, the East African nation’s currency benefited from foreign investors channeling funds to government securities, remittances during the Christmas season as well as in January with the reopening of schools, Okwenje said. 

As the year progresses, demand for the dollar will rise following the opening of the economy, he said.
Uganda, Africa’s biggest coffee exporter, saw shipments of the beans in the fourth quarter jump 21% from a year earlier. 

The pace of the nation’s economic growth is seen increasing to 6% in 2022-23, from an estimated 3.8% in the financial year through June, as effects of the coronavirus pandemic ease and demand recovers, according to the Ministry of Finance.
Bigger dollar inflows are expected as Uganda National Oil Co. plans to sign a final investment decision on Feb. 1 that will unlock more than $10 billion investment into a large oil field and pipeline project. 

The nation is taking a definitive step toward becoming a crude exporter and expects to start production by 2025.
TotalEnergies SE and Cnooc Ltd., along with the East African country’s state oil company, are developing projects expected to reach an output of 230,000 barrels a day -- bigger than some OPEC members on the continent.

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Food prices up 8.99% in Jan 2022 vs Jan 2021: @MwangoCapital
Kenyan Economy


Conclusions

significantly below the @FAO Food Index over the same period, however

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2022
 
 
 
 
 
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