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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 18th of February 2022

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September 1, 1939 by W. H. Auden comes to mind

Waves of anger and fear
Circulate over the bright
And darkened lands of the earth,
Obsessing our private lives;
The unmentionable odour of death

Into this neutral air
Where blind skyscrapers use
Their full height to proclaim
The strength of Collective Man,
Each language pours its vain
Competitive excuse:
But who can live for long
In an euphoric dream;
Out of the mirror they stare,

Faces along the bar
Cling to their average day:
The lights must never go out,
The music must always play

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Tabla wizard, Aref Durvesh @thenitinsawhney

14-FEB-2022 ::  The Music has been playing for Eternity and its about to stop
Love Fellini. So brave, with that whiff of insanity. @DiAmatoStyle Federico Fellini's 8 1/2 @tcm

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29-NOV-2021 :: Regime Change
World Of Finance


There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. 
There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. Paul Tudor-Jones

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Equity market liquidity has absolutely collapsed. Markets entered a new volatility regime following Volmageddon @FadingRallies
World Of Finance

Equity market liquidity has absolutely collapsed. Markets entered a new volatility regime following Volmageddon –– evaporating liquidity reflects this. Volatility is expanding and this is just systematics pulling. Bids are vanishing & real deleveraging will trigger feedback loops

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14-FEB-2022 :: The Curtain has been lifted and Mr. Powell has now arrived at his Volcker moment
Law & Politics

These developments led to a seismic shift in the markets before Fridays whipsaw

Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid notes that yesterday's surge in the 2-year US Treasury yield was, by one measure, "the biggest "shock" since October 1979 when Volcker announced his intentions on the world @ReutersJamie

The last time inflation was here, February 1982 - the Fed Funds Rate was 15%. @Convertbond

Dartmouth economist and former Fed adviser Andrew Levin says the Fed needs to get rates to a neutral setting within a year or so, and that the means getting the Fed Funds rates up to 4% or 5%

Its a Wizard of Oz moment 

24 JUN 19 :: Wizard of Oz World. 

This is ‘’Voodoo Economics’’ and just because we have not reached the point when the curtain was lifted in the Wizard of Oz and the Wizard revealed to be ‘’an ordinary conman from Omaha who has been using elaborate magic tricks and props to make himself seem “great and powerful”’’ should not lull us into a false sense of security

The Curtain has been lifted and Mr. Powell has now arrived at his Volcker moment 

Friday's action and next immediate sessions might afford us the greatest macro trading opportunity to reset shorts in the US 10 and Ultra Bond. 

We can look across all G7 Bonds because this is a Super Bubble that is going to burst big. There is no way out now.

There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. 

There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. Paul Tudor-Jones

Its the End of the Bull market obviously. 

The Music has been playing for Eternity and its about to stop

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Spotlight Effect: @G_S_Bhogal

We often get the anxious feeling that our every move is being scrutinized by others. The truth is, no one is paying as much attention to you as you are. People are too concerned with how they appear to others to care much about how you appear to them.

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Proteus Effect: @G_S_Bhogal

In virtual spaces, people become like their avatars. For instance, using a "sexy" avatar tends to make a person more flirtatious. This suggests people's personalities are largely a performance choreographed to social expectations.

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Fredkin's Paradox: @G_S_Bhogal

The more similar two choices seem, the less the decision should matter, yet the harder it is to choose between them. As a result, we often spend the most time on the decisions that matter least.

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Audience Capture: @G_S_Bhogal

Many influencers make their name by attacking cultural foes. Their growing audience demands ever more attacks, so, like Aztec priests trying to keep the rain flowing, they get trapped in a cycle of offering blood sacrifices to appease unseen entities

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Guerrilla Information War: @G_S_Bhogal

Conquerors once expanded territory by seizing land, but with the Digital Age it became more efficient to expand virtually by seizing minds. World War III is already happening, but it's being fought not for land but for clout.

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Political Reflections
Law & Politics

It is the third visit by a senior Israeli official to Bahrain in less than six months.

A quite extraordinary overall geopolitical development. 

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The Dark Forest which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology. @nfergus

First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.”
Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.”
Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle.
In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:
The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ...
The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him.
If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod —
There’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them.
In this forest, hell is other people ... any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.
This is intergalactic Darwinism.

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Russia-Ukraine crisis: Skirmish near border raises fear of false flag attack @Telegraph
Law & Politics

Russia-Ukraine crisis: Kindergarten shelling 'blatant attempt' to fabricate pretext for invasion, says Liz Truss

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14-FEB-2022 :: So here we are. What we do know is Putin is not a reckless Gambler [known knowns] and therefore a full scale invasion of Ukraine is pure hyperbole
Law & Politics

“There are known knowns — there are things we know we know,” Rumsfeld said in February 2002, “We also know there are known unknowns — that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
So here we are. What we do know is Putin is not a reckless Gambler [known knowns] and therefore a full scale invasion of Ukraine is pure hyperbole. 

However, Donbas and Luhansk are entirely within the scope of an imminent incursion, A Frozen conflict at this new forward boundary is I believe the limit of the scope of this Operation.

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Max:Mattis said 2 major wars simultaneously. The current "simultaneity trap" (two-front crisis) is a result of misguided foreign and economic policy. @ElbridgeColby @/andrewmichta
Law & Politics

Max:Mattis said "2 major wars simultaneously."  Today's situation is is not so much a hardware problem as one of having a flawed strategy for the past 20yrs.  The current "simultaneity trap" (two-front crisis) is a result of misguided foreign and economic policy. @ElbridgeColby

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Hong Kong's COVID fight intensifies as cases multiply by 60 times

Hong Kong's coronavirus battle intensified on Thursday as authorities reported new cases had multiplied by 60 times so far this month and media reported that testing would become compulsory for everyone in the global financial hub from March.

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We are about to hit the sars-cov2 jackpot. @xabitron1

Very soon we'll see people falling dead on the sidewalk. Strokes and heart attacks. That'll be only the tip of the iceberg, but at least a patent and indisputable experience.

14-FEB-2022 ::  the long range fallout of long Covid unfathomable.

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Virological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 BA.2 variant The Sato Lab (Kei Sato) @SystemsVirology

Statistical analysis shows that the effective reproduction number of BA.2 is 1.4-fold higher than that of BA.1. 

Neutralisation experiments show that the vaccine-induced humoral immunity fails to function against BA.2 like BA.1, and notably, the antigenicity of BA.2 is different from BA.1. 

Cell culture experiments show that BA.2 is more replicative in human nasal epithelial cells and more fusogenic than BA.1. 

Furthermore, infection experiments using hamsters show that BA.2 is more pathogenic than BA.1.

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Viral genome sequences of BA.1 and BA.2 is ~2-fold more different from those of an original Wuhan-Hu-1 and #Delta and #Alpha. @SystemsVirology

We showed the virological features of BA.2 is clearly different from that of BA.1. Should BA.2 be given a letter of the Greek alphabet? 

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.136870
Dollar Index 95.771
Japan Yen 115.1145
Swiss Franc 0.9209300
Pound 1.36233
Aussie 0.721500
India Rupee 74.7745
South Korea Won 1194.340
Brazil Real 5.1724
Egypt Pound 15.73810
South Africa Rand 14.979100

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Chinese real estate-backed high yield bonds are falling again. Their collapse, following a decade of liquidity-fueled expansion, has been spectacular: @bopinion @johnauthers

China has been anxious for years to find a way to deflate its credit bubble without causing a Lehman-style disaster. 

It’s possible they actually mean it when they say that their policy is biased toward stability. 

He said:
We have argued persistently for many months against the hope that China is about to undertake a massive policy stimulus. It is simply not going to happen, as it did in the past. “Stability” is the new watchword. The PBoC operated a relatively tight monetary stance last year and so far shows no signs of changing that in 2022.

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Mellon advised him to liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system
World Of Finance

Mellon doctrine Territory. Mellon believed that economic recessions, such as those that had occurred in 1873 and 1907, were a necessary part of the business cycle because they purged the economy.
In his memoirs, Hoover wrote that Mellon advised him to “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. ... enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.”

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.@georgesoros on China, Xi Jinping, and the Threat from Within: Delivered at the @HooverInst

[the most insightful critique I have heard full stop] I disagree with the Regime change prospect, His point about demography incisive and the Vaccine issue]

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World Of Finance

GameKyuubi posted "I AM HODLING," a drunk, semi-coherent, typo-laden rant about his poor trading skills and determination to simply hold his bitcoin from that point on.

"I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time. Still wrong. w/e," he wrote in reference to the now-famous misspelling of "holding."
"WHY AM I HOLDING? I'LL TELL YOU WHY," he continued.
"It's because I'm a bad trader and I KNOW I'M A BAD TRADER.  Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro."
He concluded that the best course was to hold, since "You only sell in a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob.  The people inbetween hold. In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell."
He then confessed he'd had some whiskey and briefly mused about the spelling of whisk(e)y.  [HODL Definition | Investopedia]

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Europe Must Be Africa's Partner of Choice #AUEUSummit @JosepBorrellF

The EU’s objective is to become Africa’s partner of choice, a goal set by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during our first visit to the AU’s headquarters in Addis Ababa two years ago.
Africa is a continent as large as the United States, Mexico, China, Japan, India, and much of Europe combined. 

With 54 countries and some 2,000 languages, and with a diverse range of opportunities as well as problems, the continent cannot be treated as a homogenous entity.
Second, we must be realistic. Between Afro-pessimism and Afro-optimism, I advocate Afro-realism. 

Before talking about economic growth and trade relations, Europe must show that it can contribute to peace, security, and good governance in African countries. 

Before talking about the demographic dividend, we must also acknowledge the scale of the difficulties that uncontrolled population growth can create in societies. 

By 2030, 30 million young people will be entering the African labor market each year. To generate sustainable jobs for them, basic education must be a high priority.
Moreover, in supporting the global transition to green energy and sustainable development, we must help ensure access to basic services on a continent where almost half the population has no electricity and must fight a daily battle for access to water and food. 

And while helping African countries develop their future vaccine-production capacity, we also must help accelerate vaccination in the present. 

Over 90% of the continent’s population remains unvaccinated against COVID-19.
In thinking about these issues, we Europeans must not make the mistake of believing that we could impose an agenda on Africa. 

Nor should we ignore the immediate realities and short-term constraints facing the vast majority of Africans. 

This is especially true now that the COVID-19 pandemic has aggravated the continent’s fragilities. 

In the Sahel, insecurity is increasing along with political instability. 

The Horn of Africa, where we saw promising democratic transitions just two years ago, is now deeply destabilized. 

And several African countries have once again entered a debt spiral.
The pandemic has also moved geopolitical competition in Africa beyond investment and business opportunities to include values and governance models. 

We find ourselves confronted with other global actors whose methods and agendas are very different from our own. 

Many of them will not hesitate to use disinformation campaigns and other forms of hybrid warfare to undercut European influence.
Despite these difficulties, we still have compelling reasons for wanting to make Europe Africa’s partner of choice. One is that Africa’s problems are our problems. Terrorism and insecurity know no borders

The Sahel is not as remote from Europe as it sometimes seems; and instability in the Horn of Africa threatens one of the world’s most important trade routes. 

Then there is climate change, which will inevitably create new waves of migration as it destroys people’s livelihoods and renders their communities uninhabitable.
Our goal is also motivated by the wealth of opportunities across the continent. Africa’s economies and societies are young and dynamic. Europe’s aging societies will have to rely on them sooner or later. 

The continent also has an abundance of raw materials and immense potential both to deploy and help produce renewable energy technologies.
Finally, we must think in geopolitical terms. With its population expected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, Africa is a rising global force. 

A closer partnership would enable Europe and Africa together to exercise much greater influence on the world stage, giving a boost to the model of multilateralism that both partners support.
To succeed, we will need a positive agenda based on joint priorities. 

Without sidestepping the difficulties, we must focus on achieving concrete, rapid results. 

Africa does not need charity or media stunts. It needs cooperation and partnerships that can actually deliver for its people.
To that end, the EU will need to combine the strengths of its member states, financial institutions, development banks, and agencies. The pandemic has given substance to the notion of this “Team Europe” approach, and this way of working must become a habit to avoid a fragmented strategy and all the problems that come with it.
In Africa, as elsewhere, the EU carries weight only when its constituent parts work together. That includes not just EU institutions and governments; civil society and the private sector also must be better attuned to dynamics on the ground.
Europe’s future will be shaped in no small part by Africa’s future. There and elsewhere, we must also better defend the European project by demonstrating that the EU’s added value exceeds that of other global powers. This month’s summit must be the starting point for building a new intercontinental partnership.

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The EU will welcome more than 40 African leaders to Brussels on Thursday in an effort to reassert its influence on a continent where China and Russia have made hefty investment inroads @Reuters #AUEUSummit

The European Union will offer several packages of support at the summit to bolster health, education and stability in Africa, and will pledge half of a new 300 billion euro investment drive launched to rival China's Belt and Road Initiative.
The EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said ahead of the two-day meeting - postponed from 2020 because of the pandemic - that the two continents were closely interlinked.
"African problems are our problems," he told the European Parliament on Tuesday. "When we work to try to solve these problems, we work for ourselves as well."
European and other wealthy nations were heavily criticised for hoarding protective equipment and later vaccines during the pandemic, with some leaders saying the slow pace of donations could lead to "vaccine apartheid".
There was also dismay over Europe's travel bans on South Africa after the Omicron variant was detected there.
Tensions run deeper on other issues between two continents with colonial ties and resentments, including over migration flows and the erosion of democracy in several African countries, some of which have recently seen coups d'etat.
French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce his intention to withdraw forces from Mali after hosting a top-level meeting on the Sahel region of Africa on Wednesday.
Ties have worsened since Mali's military junta went back on an agreement to organise elections in February and proposed holding power until 2025.
Frank Mattheis, an expert in regional studies at the United Nations University, said the summit would seek to highlight areas where cooperation is promising and avoid thorny issues such as the EU's relations with Ethiopia, which has cooled over the conduct of pro-government forces in the Tigray conflict.
The European Commission announced this week that the EU and the Gates Foundation would invest over 100 million euros in the next five years to help set up an African medicines regulator to boost the continent's drugs and vaccine production.
The race to establish the African Medicines Agency (AMA) comes after the pandemic exposed the region's dependence on imported vaccines.
Africa initially struggled to get COVID vaccines as rich countries snapped up limited supplies. 

Deliveries later picked up, but just 10% of Africans are fully vaccinated.
Just over 5% of medicines, and 1% of vaccines, consumed by Africa's population of 1.2 billion people are produced locally. 

The EU says it will provide support to help Africa produce 60% of the vaccines it needs by 2040.
Part of the funding for the AMA will come from 150 billion euros to be mobilised for Africa over the next seven years under the EU's Global Gateway scheme.
The initiative was launched in December to strengthen Europe's supply chains and fighting climate change in sectors including health and energy, priorities that Mattheis said don't necessarily align with those of African countries.
"The main objectives are set by the ambitions of the EU's own agenda, such as diversifying its energy sources, achieving its climate goals, impeding migration and curbing the global influence of China and its Belt and Road Initiative," he said.

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President Emmanuel Macron says France will withdraw its troops from Mali but maintain a military presence in neighboring West African nations AP

Announcing the move during a Thursday news conference in Paris, Macron said, “We cannot remain militarily involved” alongside Malian transitional authorities with whom “we don’t share the strategy and goals.”
France has about 4,300 troops in the Sahel region, including 2,400 in Mali. 

The so-called Barkhane force is also involved in Chad, Niger, Burkina Faso and Mauritania.
European leaders simultaneously announced Thursday that troops from the European-led military task force known as Takuba also would withdraw from Mali. 

The Takuba task force is composed of several hundred special forces troops from about a dozen European countries, including France.
Tensions have grown between Mali, its African neighbors and the European Union, especially after the West African country’s transitional government allowed Russian mercenaries to deploy in its territory.
French forces have been active since 2013 in Mali, where they intervened to drive Islamic extremists from power. 

But the insurgents regrouped in the desert and began attacking the Malian army and its allies.
Macron said support for civilians in Mali would continue, but he blamed the junta now ruling the country for its decision to hire a private Russian military contractor known as the Wagner Group that the EU accuses of fomenting violence and committing human rights abuses in Africa.
Macron said a coalition of allies will remain present in Sahel and the Guinea Gulf to counter actions from Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
He said the fight against terrorism in the region requires “steadiness and tenacity.”
The announcements followed Macron’s Wednesday night meeting with African and European leaders involved in the fight against Islamic extremists in the Sahel region.
The Mali and Burkina Faso coup leaders were not invited since both nations were suspended from the African Union.

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28 OCT 19 :: From Russia with Love

“This is not accidental, as Africa increasingly becomes a continent of opportunities''
‘’These opportunities include natural resources, infrastructure de- velopment and increasing consumer demand from a growing population'' Putin specified.

“Our African agenda is positive and future-oriented. We do not ally with someone against someone else, and we strongly oppose any geopolitical games involving Africa.”

“Russia regards Africa as an important and active participant in the emerging polycentric architecture of the world order and an ally in protecting international law against attempts to undermine it,” said Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov back in November 2018

I would argue Putin’s timing is exquisite and optimal and his Model has an exponential ROI.

Andrew Korybko writes Moscow invaluably fills the much-needed niche of providing its partners there with “Democratic Security”, or in other words, the cost-effective and low-commitment capabilities needed to thwart colour revolutions and resolve unconventional Wars (collectively referred to as Hybrid War).
To simplify, Russia’s “political technologists” have reportedly devised bespoke solutions for confronting in- cipient and ongoing color revolutions, just like its private military contractors (PMCs) have supposedly done the same when it comes to ending insurgencies.

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Ahmadou Kourouma’s novel- Waiting for the Vote of Wild Animals is a great African classic in political satire @drmwarsame

Its written as a donsomana ie "purificatory narrative" of the leader Koyaga of the Republic of the Gulf with a praise singer & responder giving alternative viewpoints

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Kourouma evocatively uses subjects, reign & intoxicated. @drmwarsame

“The people of your republic are ever feasting or preparing commemorative events. Your subjects never have time for reflection. During your reign, they lose themselves, becoming intoxicated in public rejoicing”.
Kourouma evocatively uses “subjects”,  “reign” & “intoxicated”.

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Turning To Africa

Democracy has been shredded.
We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

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Gross domestic product growth should exceed 6% for the whole fiscal year that ends June 30, he said. @Reuters

Egypt's economy grew 8.3% in the second quarter of the fiscal year and 9% in the first half, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly told a news conference in Cairo

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British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd. reports FY Earnings EPS +18% here
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Par Value:                  10/-
Closing Price:           468.0
Total Shares Issued:          100000000.00
Market Capitalization:        46,800,000,000
EPS:              64.83
PE:                7.2188 

FY Results through 31st December 2021 versus FY through 31st December 2020

FY Gross Revenue 40.049b versus 38.845b

FY Excise Duty and VAT [14.621b] versus [13.506b]

FY Net Revenue 25.428b versus 25.339b

FY Cost of Operations [16.058b] versus [17.750b]

FY Profit from Operations 9.370b versus 7.589b

FY Profit before Tax 9.288b versus 7.416b
FY Profit after Tax 6.483b versus 5.518b +18% 

FY Dividend 50 [+3.50 interim] 

FY EPS 64.83 versus 55.118 +18% 

Cash at End of Year 3.029b versus 1.884b 


continued prevalence of illicit trade in tax evaded cigarettes estimated at 22% 

Gross revenue increased by 3% ...lower export sales ...

a gain of 1.2b in comprehensive income via a property valuation exercise


Excellent results driven by excellent cost management. 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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February 2022

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