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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 30th of August 2022
 



This is the Titanic
World Of Finance



This is the Titanic

“Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market to-day has happened before and will happen again''  

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is a 1923 roman à clef by Edwin Lefèvre

Before proceeding, we should note that pointing out the flaws in the West’s war response is not “pro-Putin,” nor is it “unpatriotic” as some propagandists on Twitter would have you believe. It is the opposite. Crazy Pills @DoombergT

No matter how the official narrative of this turns out, these are the places we should be looking, not in newspapers or television but at the margins, graffiti, uncontrolled utterances, bad dreamers who sleep in public and scream in their sleep. Thomas Pynchon, Bleeding Edge
Now lets come to this Year. I recall being in London early in the Year and meeting with old school friends really successful ones at the pinnacle of their careers. 

And the Ukraine War had started and they all told me ''he is and he is forced out in a few weeks Chum'' 

And I said ''No he is not'' and have you thought of what will happen and to be frank I was dismissed out of hand.

On Twitter I had to mute the Claque and the echo chamber that is the Western Think Tanker class for my sanity.
The @POTUS Official Who Pierced Putin’s “Sanction-Proof” Economy @NewYorker 
https://bit.ly/3JJo7Ob
Singh said, “We’ve made him stare into an economic abyss. But he could choose to pull back.”
The markets are where these two systems touch—the supply of buckwheat, the joint energy ventures, the price of the ruble—and within this arena the sanctions were a demonstration that Washington still had levers to pull. 

“You know, we can play chess, too,” Singh said. “It was important for us to show that the fortress could come crumbling down.”
Hubris (/ˈhjuːbrɪs/; from Ancient Greek ὕβρις (húbris) 'pride, insolence, outrage') describes a personality quality of extreme or excessive pride or dangerous overconfidence, often in combination with (or synonymous with) arrogancehttps://bit.ly/3yLXrK8
The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancishttps://bit.ly/3rfkf0c
I was reminded of Sun Tzu & The Art of War ''victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
I wanted to explain that a ''revanchist'' Putin is in fact not a Risk Taker, that he has waited patiently for this moment. 

Our Western Economies are like a bonfire of turbo financialised QE, that the violence of the geoeconomic boomerang is going to be unprecedented. 
Sure Mr. Taleb says ''The Western system is inherently self-correcting. Help preserve it!'' but how do we preserve it with this level of insanity.
The ''Leader of the Free World'' President Biden said his sanctions against Russia would “reduce the Ruble to rubble”
https://bit.ly/3mOhPDb
& Today The RUB is the strongest EMEA currency tand the strongest currency in the World] 
https://twitter.com/x1skv/status/1562442274742579200?s=20&t=5EbvyQyqqZvWR2FsUJ0tjg
The Economist is reporting

Why the Russian economy keeps beating expectations @TheEconomist 
https://econ.st/3cky892
“Experts predict Russia’s gdp will contract up to 15% this year, wiping out the last 15 years of economic gains,” the White House gloated.
Both sides of the debate agree the country is still hurting. Massive increases in interest rates in the spring, designed to stabilise the collapsing rouble, along with the withdrawal of foreign businesses, have pushed it into recession. In the second quarter of the year gdp fell by 4% year on year, according to official figures. 
Our ability to Pull forward is exhausted. You would have to be an imbecile not TO have predicted that 
1. Just for fun: Today's Eur 300 gas price is 17x the long-term average and the Dec. 20 price. Putin has to sell 1/17 much as gas as he did in 2020 to make as much money. Who came up with these sanctions? Must have been knuckle-headed academic economists.
https://twitter.com/davidpgoldman/status/1562510799372820483?s=20&t=8UeuJ9OfENCump-ZSuQfTw
2. Germany's consumption of around 1000 TWh of #gas per year just got a lot more expensive. @COdendahl

https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1562718803469156358?s=20&t=eskUGF2TDx3pIWWkhY4f2A
We used to pay <1% of GDP for gas. At €300, it will be ... 8.4% of GDP. 

3. Good Morning from #Germany, which is heading toward an electricity crisis. The 1y ahead power price has skyrocketed to almost €1,000 per megawatt hour. The electricity price has risen by 720% ytd. @Schuldensuehner
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1563416712707710976?s=20&t=8UeuJ9OfENCump-ZSuQfTw
4. If bills do indeed exceed £6k next year then you're talking about spending £120bn-£130bn to freeze people's bills. This is a staggering amount - more than double the cost of furlough - which was already the single biggest economic intervention in UK peacetime history @EdConwaySky

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1563178591914827776?s=20&t=-0Deh1EyuVgExoTy5zb3Qg
5. Just thought I might update you on the latest ‘best’ energy deal available for a pub of our size.  We were paying 15p/unit in May. This is the best quote available today. @RoseAndCrownBeb
https://twitter.com/RoseAndCrownBeb/status/1563451257376763908?s=20&t=rAxq_cORE02x7eqaHTm9oA
6. Analysis: Heat or eat? Winter protests loom as energy poverty sweeps Europe @Reuters H/T @staunovo 
https://reut.rs/3Rflkjb
The most disturbing part of all is that the parabola has not resulted in any policy shifts, and in fact a doubling down.
Deee-Lite - Good Beat (Official Music Video)
http://bit.ly/2Y5X4FQ
Depending on you see a thing
The ship is free, or is it sinking?
This is the Titanic, plain and simple. 

I take you now to Ibn Khaldun 

Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah 
Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...” 
Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 
States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
Emmanuel Macron  warned France to  prepare  for a miserable winter in which they must be ready to pay “the price of liberty”
“the price of liberty” which was not engaging with Putin and at least picking a better moment is beyond calculation.

Our Economies are teetering and the downside cascade effects are now in plain sight. Is anyone modelling what is now a cliff edge? 
How many Jobs are about to be vaporized? How many Businesses? Are we going to print more worthless Euros?

Are our Leaders going to spin more weaponized babble? as we career at top speed off the cliff.
Lets finish off with the markets.
The Euro and GBP are at the cliff edge. 
May 2 Currency puzzles I AM EXPECTING THE DOLLAR INDEX TO RALLY TOWARDS 110.00 BECAUSE WE HAVE UNDERGONE A REGIME CHANGE
https://bit.ly/3LEqBOH
The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) which averaged 140.9 points in July 2022, down 13.3 points (8.6 percent) from June, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. @vtchakarova

https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1563477948753408004?s=20&t=PfIPT-eTFP5jNDcKtF57IQ
Is poised to rally sharply higher.
One of the preeminent Thinkers today is @CreditSuisse's Zoltan Pozsar and he said 
The policymakers to follow are no longer central bankers, but heads of state at the pinnacle of power who aren’t known for the transparency of their thinking – especially not when at war. @CreditSuisse Zoltan Pozsar
https://bit.ly/3SCBdBz

I have no faith in those at  the pinnacle of power. None. So I expect more babble and a doubling down.
Sheep spend their entire lives being afraid of the wolf, but end up eaten by the shepherd. Fabio Vighi
https://bit.ly/3v7jNUk
The sacrifice of a sheep (1997) Kourush. Daghestan. RUSSIA Thomas Dworzak @fatalstrategies


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Kilwa, the complete chronological history of an East-African emporium: 800-1842. @rhaplord
Africa


Kilwa, the complete chronological history of an East-African emporium: 800-1842. @rhaplord 


The small island of Kilwa kisiwani, located off the coast of southern Tanzania, was once home to one of the grandest cities of medieval Africa and the Indian ocean world. 

The city-state of Kilwa was one of several hundred monumental, cosmopolitan urban settlements along the East African coast collectively known as the Swahili civilization.
Kilwa's historiography is often organized in a fragmentary way, with different studies focusing on specific eras in its history, leaving an incomplete picture about the city-state's history from its earliest settlement to the modern era.
This article outlines the entire history of Kilwa, chronologically ordered from its oldest settlement in 7th century to its abandonment in 1842. 

Early Kilwa (7th-11th century)
The site of Kilwa kisiwani was first settled between the 7th-9th century by the Swahili; a north-east coastal Bantu-speaking group which was part of a larger population drift from the African mainland which had arrived on the east African coast at the turn of the common era.

Their establishment at Kilwa occurred slightly later than the earlier Swahili settlement at Unguja, but was contemporaneous with other early settlements at Manda, Tumbe and Shanga (7th-8th century). 

Classical Kilwa (12th-15th century)
Like most of its Swahili peers, Kilwa underwent a political and economic fluorescence during the 11th century, with increased maritime trade and importation of foreign (Chinese and Islamic) ceramics, local crafts production especially in textiles, 

and the advent of substantial construction in coral; which at Kilwa was mostly confined to the reconstruction of the (formerly wooden) Great mosque as well as the construction of coral tombs. 

This transformation heralded the ascendance of Kilwa's first attested ruler (sultan) named Ali bin al-Hassan, whose reign is mostly known from his silver coins, tentatively dated to the late 11th century.

Al-Hassan is identified in latter accounts as one of the "shirazi" sultans of Kilwa. 

The ubiquitous "shirazi" epithet in Swahili social history, is now understood as an endonymous identification that means "the Swahili par excellence" in opposition to the later, foreign newcomers; against whom the Swahili asserted their ancient claims of residence in the cities, and enhanced their Islamic pedigree through superficial connections to the famous ancient Persian city of shiraz that is located in the Muslim heartlands.
Kilwa first appears in external accounts around the early 13th century, in which the city is referred to simply as "a town in the country of the Zanj" in the account of Yaqut written in 1222.

In the late 13th and early 14th century, Kilwa extended its control to the neighboring islands of the Mafia archipelago including the towns of Kisimani mafia and Kua, becoming the dominant power over much of the southern Swahili coast. 

Kilwa also seized sofala from Mogadishu in the late 13th century and prospered on re-exporting gold that was ultimately derived form the Zimbabwe plateau

During the late 13th century, Kilwa’s first dynasty was deposed by the a new dynasty from the nearby Swahili city of Tumbatu led by al-Hassan Ibn Talut, who founded the "Mahdali" dynasty of Kilwa. 

Tumbatu had been a major urban settlement on the Zanzibar island, its extensive ruins of houses and mosques are dated to the 12th and 13th century, and it appears in Yaqut's 1220 account as the seat of the Zanj.

 The most illustrious ruler of this line was the sultan al-Hassan bin sulayman who reigned in the early 14th century (between 1315-1355). 

Sulayman was a pious ruler who sought to integrate Kilwa into the mainstream Islamic world, prior to his ascendance to the throne, he had embarked on a pilgrimage to Mecca in 1331 and spent some time studying in the city of Aden

 Ibn Battuta. In his description of Kilwa, Ibn Battuta writes that;
"After one night in Mombasa, we sailed on to Kilwa, a large city on the coast whose inhabitants are black A merchant told me that a fortnight's sail beyond Kilwa lies Sofala, where gold is brought from a place a month's journey inland called yufi"

Battuta adds that Kilwa was elegantly built entirely with timber and the inhabitants were Zanj (Swahili), some of whom had facial scarifications.
Kilwa declined in the second half of the 14th century, possibly due to the collapsing gold prices on the world market as well as the bubonic plague that was spreading across the Indian ocean littoral at the time.

The decline of Kilwa may only be apparent, as it was during the late 14th century when the settlement on the nearby island of Songo Mnara was established. 

Songo Mnara was constructed over a short period of time, on a site with no evidence of prior settlement, its occupation was immediately followed by an intense period of building activity that surpassed Kilwa in quality of domestic architecture. 

Kiwab was succeeded by his son Ibrāhīm Sulaymān who appears as the 'king of kilwa' in external accounts, and was in power when the Portuguese fleet of Vasco Da Gama arrived in 1502, although his actual power was much less than the title suggested.

After their occupation of Sofala in 1505 and meddling in Kilwa's politics, the Portuguese interlopers had effectively broken the commercial circuit established by Kilwa which funneled the gold purchased from Sofala into the Indian Ocean world. 

Kilwa tried to salvage its fortunes in the mid-16th century by reorienting its trade towards its own hinterland, from where it derived ivory which it then sold to the Portuguese and other Indian ocean buyers in lieu of gold, and the city was reportedly still in control of the Mafia islands in 1571.
In 1588, Kilwa was attacked by the enigmatic Zimba forces, an offshoot of the Maravi kingdom from northern Mozambique that had been active in the gold and ivory trade which had since been taken over by the Portuguese. 

The city had gradually recovered from this devastation by the 1590s as the Yao; new group of Ivory traders from the mainland, created a direct route to Kilwa from the region north of Lake Malawi.

Succession crises plagued Kilwa's throne in the 1610s; and were instigated largely by interventions of the Portuguese, who had effectively colonized the Swahili coast by then and had re-occupied a small fort they constructed in Kilwa in 1505. 

The Portuguese eventually  managed to placate the rivaling factions by channeling the ivory trade exclusively through Kilwa's merchants by 1635, thus maintaining their control of the city despite an Omani attack in 1652, as the city wouldn't revert to local authority until 1698 when the Portuguese were finally expelled from Mombasa.

Despite the reorientation of trade, Kilwa was impoverished under Portuguese rule and no buildings were constructed throughout the 17th century. 

The city's prosperity was restored in the early 18th century, under sultan Alawi and the queen (regent) Fatima bint Muhammad's reign, largely due to the expanding ivory trade with the Yao that had been redirected from the Portuguese at Mozambique island. 

Kilwa’s last ruler, sultan Hassan, was exiled by the Omanis rulers of Zanzibar in 1842, and the once sprawling urban settlement was reduced to a small village.

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Interview with Maria Joao Lopo de Carvalho about Luis de Camoes and her book which followed his c16th journey from Portugal to Macau via Cape of Good Hope
Africa


Interview with Maria Joao Lopo de Carvalho about Luis de Camoes and her book which followed his c16th journey from Portugal to Macau via the Cape of Good Hope Mozambique Mombasa Malindi Oman Hormuz Goa Sri Lanka Macau Malacca

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Interview with Maria Joao Lopo de Carvalho about Luis de Camoes and her book which followed his c16th journey from Portugal to Macau via the Cape of Good Hope Mozambique Mombasa Malindi Oman Hormuz Goa Sri Lanka Macau Malacca
Africa


The Gereza Fort was erected after the Portuguese seized control of the Swahili coastal trade routes and is one of the last in a series of great forts and palaces built on the island of Kilwa Kisiwani, at one point the most powerful city-state in the whole of East Africa.
Located directly opposite the town of Kilwa Masoko, 300km to the south of Dar es Salaam, Kilwa Kisiwani is one of two islands that were the epicentre of a once bustling cosmopolitan trading hub. 

Kilwa Kisiwani and its neighbouring Songo Mnara, are today quiet places, inhabited by small communities, which survive on fishing and subsistence farming. 

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M.G Vassanji's The Magic of Saida
Africa


M.G Vassanji's The Magic of Saida



M. G. Vassanji: I would describe it as a love story that in its development and description tells other stories. 

It is set in Kilwa, the ancient town on the east coast of Africa, which is associated historically with slavery, international (Indian Ocean) trade, and twentieth-century colonialism, as well as Swahili culture and poetry. 
This history is manifest in various forms in the lives of the people. The story of Kilwa is therefore also the story of the two childhood sweethearts in the book. 

Thus, the boy Kamal is mesmerized by the history narrated by the old poet of the town.
Vassanji: Sometimes, it's hard to remember. I think I had the town of Kilwa in mind, having read about it. It has a certain romance to it, being ancient. It's one of the oldest urban settlements in sub-Saharan Africa. 
The Arab traveler Ibn Batuta mentions it in the fourteenth century; the English poet John Milton mentions it. It's older than Delhi. Its descriptions in old Portuguese texts are fantastic. 
Then there was the mystique of magic--which is very strong in Tanzania. I got fascinated by Swahili culture.

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Jul 3 It is now clear that no amount of gaslighting can finesse a Ukrainian military rebound from here.
Law & Politics


Jul 3 It is now clear that no amount of gaslighting can finesse a Ukrainian military rebound from here. 


It is now clear that no amount of gaslighting can finesse a Ukrainian military rebound from here. 

Shoigu [who has resurrected himself from the dead You will recall Information Warfare Specialists had informed us that he was on his last legs] has pronounced the Lugansk People's Republic liberated. 

As mentioned before, I see Russia moving eventually towards Odesa, landlocking Ukraine and only then coming to the Table.
The inability to read the battlefield, the extraordinary propaganda threads on Twitter, the deplatforming of any voice that countered the Propaganda effort have produced a ''Fairy Tale'' reality and a geoeconomic boomerang effect which is shredding the standard of living in the West and whose consequence will be Regime Change in Western Capitals long before Moscow.
The choice for Western Policy Makers is extraordinarily bleak.

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Lord Richard Dannatt tells #TimesRadio that President Zelensky should ‘start negotiating’ as ‘Russia is not going to lose.’ @TimesRadio
Law & Politics


Lord Richard Dannatt tells #TimesRadio that President Zelensky should ‘start negotiating’ as ‘Russia is not going to lose.’ @TimesRadio

"The military commanders have got to advise, Look, Mr. President, we have done as much as we can, but we really can’t throw the Russians out."
Lord Richard Dannatt tells #TimesRadio that President Zelensky should ‘start negotiating’ as ‘Russia is not going to lose.’

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At the March UN General Assembly session, 141 countries (73%) voted for a resolution to condemn Russia. This week, that support DROPPED to 30% @jacksonhinklle
Law & Politics


At the March UN General Assembly session, 141 countries (73%) voted for a resolution to condemn Russia. This week, that support DROPPED to 30% @jacksonhinklle


At the March UN General Assembly session, 141 countries (73%) voted for a resolution to condemn Russia.
This week, that support DROPPED to 30%, with no African, Persian Gulf or BRICS countries on board. Only 2 Latin American governments, COLOMBIA & GUATEMALA, stand with Ukraine.

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She is pointedly refusing to recognise the actual issue directly affecting peoples lives. Not a good omen for the next few months. @JoMicheII
Law & Politics


Seems desperate in the sense that she is desperate to be seen to be doing something but also disdainful in that she is pointedly refusing to recognise the actual issue directly affecting peoples lives. Not a good omen for the next few months.

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The @Conservatives are en route to electoral annihilation, aren't they? @davesumnersmith
Law & Politics


The @Conservatives are en route to electoral annihilation, aren't they? @davesumnersmith


And choosing @TrussLiz & her bunch of misfits to attempt to run a government during this time of crisis simply makes the result more certain.

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Ursula has disappeared from public view for weeks now. Hiding after landing EU in this mess @BhadraPunchline
Law & Politics


Ursula has disappeared from public view for weeks now. Hiding after landing EU in this mess @BhadraPunchline


Ursula has disappeared from public view for weeks now. Hiding after landing EU in this mess by pushing the 'sanctions from hell' down the throats of reluctant member states & vowing to defeat Russia in the war. Next it will be Borrell's turn to disappear from public stage.

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Ursula and The Charge of the Light Brigade.
Law & Politics


Ursula and The Charge of the Light Brigade. 



   Someone had blundered.
   Theirs not to make reply,
   Theirs not to reason why,
   Theirs but to do and die.
   Into the valley of Death
   Rode the six hundred.

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Jul 3 One can create inorganic cascade like price moves in the derivatives market and thereby control the physical commodity.
Commodities

Jul 3 One can create inorganic cascade like price moves in the derivatives market and thereby control the physical commodity.

Western markets are turbo finiancialized and for an eternity, Western banks and Central Banks have been able to distort the commodity price complex with little difficulty. 
Take the Gold market for example where derivatives are 100x the underlying. 
One can create inorganic cascade like price moves in the derivatives market and thereby control the physical commodity. 
There are plenty of examples of these inorganic price moves. In essence, the Tail wags the dog. 
The challenge is where the Supply/Demand balance is precarious and a small adjustment [reduce Supply or increase Demand] tips the situation into disequilibrium. 
The Tail will no longer wag the Dog and the Dog will simply run amok.

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Would be interesting to see if market news coverage of these countries - from Egypt to Kenya and Pakistan to Tunisia - echoes the repayment humps coming due in 2022/23 @RencapMan
Emerging Markets


Would be interesting to see if market news coverage of these countries - from Egypt to Kenya and Pakistan to Tunisia - echoes the repayment humps coming due in 2022/23 @RencapMan

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Libya's worst fighting for two years suddenly hit the capital, Tripoli, on Saturday. Reuters
Africa


Libya's worst fighting for two years suddenly hit the capital, Tripoli, on Saturday. Reuters


Libya's fault lines surfaced as local groups took different positions in the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that toppled Muammar Gaddafi.
An attempted democratic transition slid out of control as armed groups built local power bases and coalesced round rival political factions, seizing control of economic assets.
After a battle for Tripoli in 2014, one faction including most parliament members moved east and recognised Khalifa Haftar as military chief, eventually setting up a parallel government.
A U.N.-backed agreement led to a new internationally recognised government in Tripoli, but eastern factions spurned the deal and Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) attacked the capital in 2019.
The squabbling armed factions that controlled western Libya came together to back the Tripoli government against Haftar and they repelled his assault in 2020 with help from Turkey, leading to a ceasefire and a new U.N.-backed peace process.

Turkey's continued military presence around Tripoli, where it maintained air bases with drones after helping fend off the eastern assault in 2020, means another Haftar offensive against the capital looks very unlikely for now.

Control over revenues from Libya's main export, its oil output of up to 1.3 million barrels per day, has long been the biggest prize for all the main political and military factions.
Groups have repeatedly shut down output before as a tactic to put pressure on the government in Tripoli where all foreign oil sales revenue is channelled into the central bank through international agreements.

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For a while regime change was de rigeur
Africa

For a while regime change was de rigeur


Muammar Gaddafi was decapitated and the domino effect only stopped when Vladimir Putin decided he was going to put a stop to it and intervened on behalf of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria.

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24 OCT 11 :: Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message?
Africa


24 OCT 11 :: Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message?


The image of a bloodied Gaddafi, then of a dead Gaddafi in a meat locker have flashed around the world via the mobile, YouTube and Twitter.

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Some Tunisian shops are rationing goods including cooking oil, sugar and butter, while big queues have hit petrol stations amid a fuel shortage as the government navigates a looming crisis in public finances @Reuters
Africa


Some Tunisian shops are rationing goods including cooking oil, sugar and butter, while big queues have hit petrol stations amid a fuel shortage as the government navigates a looming crisis in public finances @Reuters 


Some grocery shops have restricted customers to single packs of items in short supply, while queues outside petrol stations have blocked traffic in parts of the capital.
President Kais Saied and his government have not commented on the shortages except by announcing an intention to target commodities speculators and hoarders. 

However, Saied on Friday sacked the head of Tunisia's petroleum distribution company.

The government sells many imported goods at a highly subsidised rate and a global commodities squeeze has pushed up international prices.
The government has received two tranches of international help this summer, from the World Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, to fund grain purchases, but is also seeking an IMF bailout to finance the budget and pay debt.
"There's no oil or sugar or butter and there is a big shortage of biscuits and snacks," said Azzouz, a shopkeeper in the working class Ettadamon district of Tunis.

Khadija, a woman shopping in the same area, said she could not find any subsidised cooking oil and could not afford other brands.
"The situation gets more difficult day by day and we don't know what we're going to do," she said.

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Paul Virilio Speed and Politics
Africa


Paul Virilio Speed and Politics



“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’

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@Walmart Inc has launched a 6.4 billion rand ($377.6 million) offer for the 47% of @MassmartSA shares it does not already own @Reuters
Africa

Massmart's announcement of the offer sent its shares up 46%. If approved by shareholders, the retailer would be delisted from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

Walmart has offered 62 rand for each outstanding Massmart share, which represents a premium of 53% to Friday's closing share price, Massmart added.
Since acquiring majority control over Massmart in 2010, the U.S. retailer has had to provide increasing levels of financial and operational support across Massmart's businesses.
Massmart's management launched a turnaround plan in 2019 that involved selling off non-core assets, removing fresh food from its Game stores and cutting costs across the group.

"The potential offer, if finalised, will provide Massmart with needed access to ongoing financial and operational support from Walmart to sustain the group's turnaround," it added.

The retailer posted a headline loss in the 26 weeks ended June 26 of 903.5 million rand ($53.2 million), from a loss of 358.5 million rand a year before.

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Why Ghana Went From Hero to Zero for Investors @bpolitics H/T @johngakunju
Africa


Why Ghana Went From Hero to Zero for Investors @bpolitics H/T @johngakunju


Ghana is learning the hard way why oil can be a blessing and a curse. 

The onset of commercial crude production helped turn the West African nation into one of the continent’s hottest investment destinations, but also prompted successive governments to borrow to the hilt. 

Skittish investors have offloaded Ghana’s bonds and currency, the cedi, amid mounting concern over its ability to settle its debts. 

The tumbling exchange rate has led to a surge in prices of basic necessities, from milk to bus fares, and prompted the central bank to sharply increase interest rates. 

With the economy on its knees, President Nana Akufo-Addo’s administration has appealed to the International Monetary Fund for an assistance package of as much as $3 billion.
1. Why was Ghana so popular among investors?
The first sub-Saharan African nation to gain independence after colonial rule, Ghana has been a bastion of stability in a region plagued by civil unrest and coups. 

It’s held peaceful elections on a regular basis since the 1990s, power has changed hands between rival parties and presidents, and it has an independent judiciary and a vibrant parliament. 

The world’s second-biggest grower of cocoa and Africa’s No. 2 producer of gold, it began exporting oil in late 2010. 

The following year, gross domestic product leaped by almost 14%. 

The economy has expanded every year since then, albeit at a more modest pace, with the government’s embrace of a free-market system helping to lure foreign capital and financing. 
2. So what went wrong?
The government abandoned fiscal discipline and opened the spending taps in anticipation of an oil windfall. 

But the revenue it earned was insufficient to cover a succession of expensive flagship programs and the budget deficit soared as borrowing rose to plug funding gaps. 

Overspending was particularly rife in election years. Akufo-Addo’s administration scrapped fees for all senior high school students and pays for their upkeep and accommodation. 

In 2021, the government spent $1 billion on refinancing loans taken out by indebted private power producers, a move that was intended to reduce its electricity bills. 

A plan to strengthen a banking industry that’s been weakened by bad loans has cost taxpayers more than 25 billion cedis ($2.5 billion), and an estimated 8 billion cedis more is needed to complete the process. 

Covid-19 dealt a further blow to the state’s already stretched finances. 

After selling Eurobonds for each of the previous nine years, it was shut out of international capital markets in 2022 as investors lost confidence in Ghana’s ability to service its debts. 

The government shunned an initiative that would have enabled it to suspend the servicing of its loans, and vowed not to tap further support from the IMF, before changing its tune in July 2022. 
3. How precarious are Ghana’s finances?

The country is on the verge of a fiscal crisis and may be forced to restructure a debt burden that equated to 78.3% of gross domestic product at the end of June, up from 62.5% five years earlier. 

When it could no longer tap international markets, the government resorted to taking out domestic loans, paying annual interest rates of almost 30%. 

The central bank stepped in to provide the government with funding after it risked defaulting on its local debt, but it plans to limit further support to stay within its legal lending threshold. 

In early August, S&P Global Ratings cut the nation’s credit rating by one notch to CCC+, seven levels below investment grade, citing the government’s elevated financing needs and limited access to external financing. 

4. How have investors responded to the meltdown?
There’s been an exodus from the currency and bond markets. 

The cedi’s decline of almost 40% between the start of 2022 and late August made it the world’s worst performer after defaulter Sri Lanka’s rupee. 

Its dollar-denominated bonds trade at yields of more than 10 percentage points above those of US Treasuries, a sign of distress. 
5. What are the authorities doing to address the situation?
The Finance Ministry has vowed to return state finances to a sustainable path, cutting spending and reducing the projected budget deficit for 2022. 

The Bank of Ghana raised its key lending rate by 850 basis points between November 2021 and August 2022 to support the currency and help tame inflation. 

The central bank also increased the cash reserves that banks are required to hold and began buying dollars from mining and oil companies operating in the country -- moves that were aimed at bolstering the nation’s depleting foreign reserves. 

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9 DEC 19 :: Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes
Africa


9 DEC 19 :: Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes


we were all popping Quaaludes [Quaaludes ‘’to promote relaxation, sleepiness and sometimes a feeling of euphoria. It causes a drop in blood pressure and slows the pulse rate. These proper- ties are the reason why it was initially thought to be a useful sedative and anxiolytic It became a recreational drug due to its euphoric effect’’].

Everyone knows how this story ends. When the music stops, everyone will dash for the Exit and the currency will collapse 

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Jubilee Insurance Company Ltd. HY Net Profit 3.366412b versus 4.506107b
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Jubilee Insurance Company Ltd. HY Net Profit 3.366412b versus 4.506107b


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           258.00
Total Shares Issued:          72472950.00
Market Capitalization:        18,698,021,100
EPS:             89.88
PE:                 2.870


Jubilee Holdings reports HY results through 30th June 2022 versus 6 months through 30th June 2021

HY 22 Gross written premium & contributions 20.867508b versus 22.206750b

HY 22 Gross Earned premiums 13.195212b versus 15.903849b

HY 22 Outward reinsurance [2.879819b] versus [4.739869b]

HY 22 Net Insurance premium revenue 10.315393b versus 11.163980b

HY 22 Other Revenue 4.669422b versus 6.707283b

HY 22 Total Income 4.669422b versus 6.707283b

HY 22 Total Income 14.984815b versus 17.871263b

HY 22 Net Insurance benefits & Claims [10.250283b] versus [12.234158b]

HY 22 Total expenses and commission [3.471980b] versus [3.390802b]

HY 22 Result of operating activities 1.262552b versus 2..246303b

HY 22 Share of results of Associates 1.188837b versus 0.885931b

HY 22 Profit of operating activities 2.451389b versus 3.132234b

HY 22 Gain on disposal of subsidiary 1.610238b versus 2.073744b

HY Group Profit before Tax 4.061627b versus 5.205978b

HY Net Profit 3.366412b versus 4.506107b

HY 22 Total Assets 160.484879b versus 155.272618b

HY 22 Investment Assets 137.085017b versus 128.999568b

HY 22 Cash & Cash Equivalents 6.443139b versus 7.918319

HY 22 Interim Dividend 1 shilling a share 

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Limuru Tea Company Ltd.reports HY 22 EPS 2.47 versus [3.58]
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Limuru Tea Company Ltd.reports HY 22 EPS 2.47 versus [3.58]


Par Value:                  20/-
Closing Price:           510.00
Total Shares Issued:          2,400,000
Market Capitalization:       
EPS:             -1.53
PE:                 -333.333



Limuru Tea results for the Six months ended 30th June 2022.versus 30th June 2021

HY 22 Turnover 66.261m versus 46.617m

HY 22 Profit {Loss] before Income Tax 6.428m versus [8.372m]

HY 22 Profit after Tax 5.917m versus [8.597m]

HY 22 EPS 2.47 versus [3.58]

Commentary

In the first half of 2022, total revenues increased by 42% to Kes 66.3 million in the period compared to Kes 46.6 million realised in the same period of 2021. 

This increase in the first half of 2022 is driven by favourable black tea market prices and the continuous improvement of tea quality.
The company produced 1,702 tons of green leaf, which in turn was manufactured into 406 tons of black tea. 

This was a 6% decrease in made tea volumes compared to the first half of 2021.
The company posted a pre-tax profit of Kes 5.9 million in the first half of 2022 compared to a pre-tax loss of Kes 8.6 million in 2021. 

This improvement in performance is driven by the higher market prices compared to the same period in 2021

Inflation on key material costs pushed up the cost quite significantly but management put up cost efficiency programs to mitigate the full impact.
Prospects
The first half of 2022 has experienced relatively lower rainfall which has negatively impacted tea production. 

Price inflation of key inputs has also impacted the cost profile. 

Market prices have improved, and this has cushioned the profitability of the company despite the challenging business environment. 

The management will keep undertaking strategic cost efficiencies and quality improvement initiatives to ensure the company maximize on returns.

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FTG Holdings Ltd reports HY 2022 through 30th June 2022 versus through 30th June 2021
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


FTG Holdings Ltd reports HY 2022 through 30th June 2022 versus through 30th June 2021


Closing Price:           1.31
Total Shares Issued:          161866804.00
Market Capitalization:        212,045,513
EPS:             0.58
PE:                 2.259



FTG Holdings reports HY 2022 through 30th June 2022 versus through 30th June 2021

HY 22 Revenue 1.803576535b versus 1.630738167b +11%

HY 22 Cost of Sales [1.312302733b] versus [1.084043738b]

HY 22 Gross Profit 491.273802m versus 546.694429m

HY 22 Other Operating Income 45m versus 2.944945m

HY 22 Selling & Distribution Expenses [260.439287m] versus [211.693148m]

HY 22 Administrative Expenses [142.776617m] versus [144.523872m]

HY 22 Other Operating Expenses  [79.154266m] versus [66.898673m]

HY 22 Operating Profit [Loss] 53.903632m versus 126.523681m

HY 22 Finance Costs [98.645398m] versus [59.536435m]

HY 22 Profit [Loss] before Taxation [44.741766m] versus 66.987246m

HY 22 Profit [Loss] for the period/year [44.741766m] versus 66.987246m

HY 22 Other comprehensive Income 108.380634m versus 42.743903m

HY 22 Exchange differences on Translation of foreign Operations [20.276905m] versus 42.743903b

HY 22 Gain on revaluation 183.796484b 

HY 22 Deferred tax on revaluation gain [55.138945b]

HY 22 Cash and Cash equivalents at end of year [296.386266m] versus [242.237321m]

Commentary

FTG Holdings (FTGH: NSE) the diversified manufacturer and distributor of plastic tanks, cosmetics, snacks, spices and playground equipment, has announced a 11% increase in sales vs. H1 2021, up to 1.803M with a gross margin of 27% vs. 34% on previous year. 

This drop of margin translates on 126.3M less profit, and it is directly linked to the very tough international context of extreme increase of oil prices (+70% only in the last 1 year) and shipping costs (tripled over the past 12 months), driving the costs of our main raw materials (plastics) to levels not seen before. 

The progressive devaluation of the KES (from 106 June 2021 to 117 KES/USD in June 2022) has also contributed to the increase in the cost of sales.

Finance costs went up by 66% vs H12021 (+39.1M), as a result of additional funds required to purchase raw materials and the devaluation of the Kenyan Schilling vs. USD.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2022
 
 
 
 
 
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