18th August 2017
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Company Data
 
Athi-River Mining Ltd.
http://www.armkenya.com
Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           20.75
Total Shares Issued:          495275000.00
Market Capitalization:        10,276,956,250
EPS:             -5.84
PE:                 -3.553
 

A mineral extraction and processing company which manufactures lime, cement and other industrial fertilisers.

FY 16 Earnings versus FY 15 Earnings
FY Revenue 12.793408b vs. 14.735935b -13.182%
FY [Loss] Profit before tax [3.978831b] vs. [3.539156b] +12.423%
FY [Loss] Profit after tax [2.800175b] vs. [2.890841b] -3.136%
FY [Loss] Earnings per share [3.30] vs. [5.84] +43.493%
Total Assets 51.058802b vs. 51.936664b -1.690%
Total Equity 27.795121b vs. 16.845768b +64.998%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year [3.401516b] vs. [3.382783b] -0.554%

Number of outstanding shares 959,940,200

Company Commentary

business challenges in Tanzania
New Equity of 14.1b issued to CDC Group in October 2016
Turnover was 13% lower primarily due to increased competition and lower cement selling prices in Tanzania
construction sector in Kenya has remained buoyant volumes +10% during 2016
Interest burden increased substantially in 2016, at 2.8b up by nearly 1b over the previous year.
The Company decided to exit all of the non cement businesses.
The Company has entered into an agreement for the sale of the non cement to a strategic investor, and it expects to close the sale during Q3.
Co has decided to complete expansion of the Athi River Cement grinding plant thereby increasing the Kenya capacity by 650,000 tons per year.

Conclusions

I am sure there are a number of Suitors for the Fertiliser business.
They have now dramatically right sized balance sheet.
I expect a return to Profitability this FY.

FY Revenue 14.735935b vs. 13.743185b +7.224%
FY [Loss] profit before tax [3.539156b] vs. 2.018133b -275.368%
FY [Loss] profit after tax [2.890841b] vs. 1.493393b -293.575%
FY Other comprehensive income for the year net of income tax 10.612967b vs. 0.000847b
FY Total comprehensive income for the year 7.722126b vs. 1.494240b +416.793%
EPS [5.84] vs. 3.01 -294.020%
Dividend vs. 0.60
Total assets 51.936664b vs. 36.912580b +40.702%
Cash & cash equivalents at the end of the period [3.382783b] vs. [2.735632b] +23.656%

Company Commentary

EBITDA margin grew from 23% to 26%
unrealised Exchange Loss 0f 3.7b
Co. has agreed a $140m Equity Investment from CDC Group
Co. to apply $110m to Debt reduction
demand for Cement in East Africa increased by more than 10% last year

Conclusions

CDC Group have a smart trade. They can bring cheaper Funding to the business, in the first place.

First Half Results through 30th June 2015 versus 30th June 2014
First Half Revenue 7.689144b versus 7.566879b +2.00%
First Half Operating Profit 1.572193b versus 1.469047b +7.00%
Finance cost 627.040m versus 220.969m
First Half Profit before Tax and unrealised Exchange losses 945.153m versus 1.248078b
Unrealised Exchange Losses 1.418669b versus 25.817m
First Half Profit [Loss] before Tax [472.516m] versus 1.222261b
First Half Profit [Loss] after Tax [355.8m] versus 847.223m
First Half EPS [1.4] versus 3.4

Company Commentary

Cement Sales have been increasing each month in both Kenya and Tanzania with a marked increase in Q2 when Tanga Plant became fully operational
Tanga operating at 70% capacity
EA Cement Demand increased by more than 10% during 1st half

Conclusions

Organic growth is accelerating with a Q2 Skew versus Q1.
The Exchange Rate tipped the Earnings.
Mavuno Fertiliser was an Outlier.

Full Year Results through 31st Dec 2014 versus through 31st Dec 2013
Full Year Revenue 13.743185b versus 14.179208b -3.075%
Full Year Profit before Tax 2.018133b versus 2.000060b +5.043%
Full Year Profit after Tax 1.493393b versus 1.348803b +10.71%
Full Year EPS 3.01 versus 2.74 +9.85%
Full Year Dividend 0.60cents unchanged
Assets 36.912580b versus 29.705254b
Cash Flows at End of reporting Period [2.735632b] [1.879015b]

Company Commentary

Revenue remained stable as no significant capacity came on line and the Tanga Clinker Plant was only completed in December 2014
Gross Margin improved by 8%
Total group cash flow generated from operations stood at 2.5b while total borrowings increased by 4.8b shillings
Group is confident about the outlook for 2015
cement markets continue to grow at double digits with significant demand from the infrastructure segment
margins are expected to grow as we substitute clinker imports with our own clinker
Company doubled the manufacturing capacity for Mavuno Fertilisers
ARM has appointed a group of mandated lead arrangers to assist the company in raising medium to long ted, funding
Annual General Meeting will be held at the Laico Regency 30th July 2015

Conclusions

I think these were promising results. The Cement Demand Curve remains muscular and ARM is well placed.

First Half through 30th June 2014 versus through 30th June 2013
H1 Revenue 7.566879b versus 6.499126b +16%
H1 Profit before Tax 1.222261b versus 1.015317b +20.00%
H1 Profit after Tax 847.223m versus 702.824m +21.00%
No Interim Dividend

Company Commentary
Cement Sales increased by 10% in Kenya and in Tanzania by 38% as the Rhino Cement brand increased distribution throughout the country
Mavuno Fertilizer business recorded significant growth
The Total investment in the combined 1.8m tonnes per year Tanga clinker plant and Dar Es Salaam cement plant to date is kes 15b
improved EBITDA margins upon commencement of clinker production at the Tanga Plant

Conclusions

Steepening earnings Trajectory which is set to steepen further on margin expansion related to the commissioning of the Clinker Plant in Tanzania.

A Shareholder asks a Question @Armcement1 @PradeepPaunrana @Rhinocement @LaicoRegency
http://www.twitpic.com/e8endf

@pradeeppaunrana takes the Stage at #ARMAGM2014 @Armcement1 @Laicoregency
http://www.twitpic.com/e8el7x
FY through 31st December 2013 versus FY 2012
FY Revenue 14.179208b versus 11.400569b +24%
FY Profit before Tax 2.000060b versus 1.790296b +12%
FY Profit after Tax 1.348803b versus 1.245638b +8.00%
FY Earnings Per Share 2.74 versus 2.51 +9.1633%
FY Dividend 60 cents a share versus 50cents +20%

Company Commentary
despite some weakness in Kenyas construction sector during 2013
Cement Sales increased 31% Cement Division is 86% of group's Turnover
The Dar es Salam plant manufactured cement using imported clinker. The profit margins are expected to improve after the Tanga clinker plant becomes operational in the 2nd half of the year.
Group Net Debt 14.7b

Conclusions

Some Margin compression. Expect margin expansion when the Tanga Clinker plant becomes operational.
There is a significant Capacity Expansion in Play.
ARM's share exhibits very low beta and this is a consequence of outstanding execution.

H1 Turnover 6.499126b versus 5.073987b +28%
H1 PBT 1.015317b versus 0.790962b +28%
H1 PAT 0.702825b versus 0.550183b +28%
Annualised EPS 2.83 versus 2.23
Group generated 2b of Cashflow H1

Conclusions

Execution has been flawless ever since I started following this Share.

FY Through Dec 2012 versus FY through Dec 2011
FY Revenue 11.400569b versus 8.180992b +39.00%
FY PBT 1.790296b versus 1.362912b +31%
FY PAT 1.245638b versus 1.150498b
FY EPS 2.51 versus 2.32
Dividend 0.50 versus 0.40

Company Commentary
Cement Sales +64%
Dar Es Salaam Plant became operational in October 2012
Company generated 2.7b Cash from Operations during the Year

Conclusions

The Company continues to Bulk up.
Pradeep is an Outstanding CEO and The Share trades on a PE Premium to its Peers, which is entirely justified because of its Faultless Execution.
The Share Price is +52.466% in 2012

H1 2012 Swot Analysis
Turnover 5.073897b versus 3.695189b +37%
Profit Before Tax 790.962m versus 636.296m +24%
Profit After Tax 550.183m versus 441.896m +25%
Earnings Per Share Annualised 11.15 versus 8.92 +25%
Company Commentary
60% Increase in Sales of Rhino Cement during the Year
$50m Convertible Note with AFC Drawdown expected in this Quarter
No Interim Dividend


52wk Range: 137.00 196.00
1Yr Rtn: -0.86%

Swot Analysis FY 2011 versus FY 2010
Turnover 8.180992b versus 5.964670b +37%
PBT 1.362912b versus 1.112962b +22%
PAT 1.150498b versus 1.075268b +7% 2010 PAT Restated
Earnings Per Share 11.6 versus 10.9 +7%
Final Dividend 2.00 versus 1.75

Commentary

Cement Sales +72%
ARM to issue a $50m Convertible with a 268.00 Conversion Price

Conclusions

They continue to accelerate via a Bulking Up

Swot Analysis FY 2010 versus FY 2009
Turnover 5.96467 Billion versus 5.144822 Billion +16%
PBT 1.112962B versus 0.948714b +17%
PAT 0.792011B versus 0.645774B
EPS 8.00 versus 6.52 +22.699%
Dividend 1.75 versus 1.50 +16.666%
Cumulative Average Growth Rate of 31% over last 5 Years in EPS

The firm said a 750,000 tonnes per year cement grinding plant in Tanzanias commercial city of Dar es Salaam would be on stream before the end of this year, while another 1.5 million tonne per year plant would be commissioned in mid-2012.This is after the companys cement grinding capacity more than doubled to 1 million tonnes per year last
year.The company expects to increase cement sales significantly in 2011.

Conclusions

Their Execution is Flawless and hence the PE Premium

East African Cables reports FY 16 EPS Loss -1.80 Earnings here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzI%3D

EA Cables FY Earnings through Dec 2016 versus Dec 2015

FY Turnover 3.650451b vs. 3.724212b -1.981%
FY Cost of sales [2.846146b] vs. [3.110205b] -8.490%
FY Gross profit 804.305m vs. 614.007m +30.993%
FY Expenses [823.383m] vs. [752.569m] +9.410%
FY Loss before impairment losses and depreciation [11.619m] vs. [90.042m] -87.096%
FY Loss from operating activities [531.488m] vs. [649.783m] -18.205%
FY Loss before income tax [810.349m] vs. [1.087004b] -25.451%
FY Loss for the year [582.602m] vs. [741.204m] -21.398%
Basic and diluted EPS [1.80] vs. [2.21] -18.552%
Total Assets 7.548406b vs. 8.384143b -9.968%
Total Equity 2.556409b vs. 3.149987b -18.844%
Cash and cash equivalents at 31st December 45.186m vs. [88.820m] +150.874%
No dividend

Company Commentary

Group Revenue declined by 2% attributed to decrease in London Metal Exchange Prices.
Group recorded a 31% increase in gross profit levels owing to production efficiencies
Groups net earrings improved by 21% from a loss of 741m to a loss of 583m
Order Book of 4.2b
the Group continues to seek improved credit facilities

Conclusions

This Turnaround has taken 2 Years now and still has not turned around
Average Price Over the last 5 Weeks
Average Price Over the last 5 Months
No. Of Shares Traded Over the last 5 Weeks
No. Of Shares Traded Over the last 5 Months
Market Capitalization Over the last 5 Weeks
Market Capitalization Over the last 5 Months
Data Source: Nairobi Stock Exchange
Trading Day: 17 Aug 2017
 
Downloads
 
  22-JUN-2017 ::  AGM Resolutions
  Annual General Meeting Resolutions

Download N.S.E Announcement
   
  02-MAY-2017 ::  Full Year Results
  AUDITED GROUP RESULTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31st DECEMBER 2016

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  04-OCT-2016 ::  PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT
  Public Announcement

Download N.S.E Announcement
   
  26-AUG-2016 ::  HALF YEAR RESULTS
  Unaudited Results for the Six Month Period Ended 30th June 2016.

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