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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

I thank Dr. Richard Bridge Head of Government and Political Affairs BP
for an excellent Dinner at Pango at the Fairview. Welcome to this
Missive and Thank You for an excellent Dinner and Company.

My Steak being cooked at the Fairview Nairobi Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/8f15d0

I thank Trade Mark East Africa for the Opportunity to facilitate their
2nd Forum which focussed on Non Tariff Barriers. It was a Pleasure to
catch up with the EAC Secretary General, the Ambassador PS Bill
Kayonga, to meet the The Danish Minister for Development Cooperation,
The Minister of Trade Chirau Ali Mwakwere and a whole Bunch of Good
People. I enjoy myself actually, I get away from my Desk, I meet
interesting People.

SecGen EAC Dr.Richard Sezibera cites #Kenyans4Kenya @Bobcollymore @oduormartinO
http://www.twitpic.com/8en9ei

How Relevant is the African Union Inside Story #Aljazeera #AU
http://j.mp/z6UOTK

"Sudan has now become an epicentre of a collision between America and
China. Essentially the US is backing the south ... and it is in that
context that we need to look at the situation in Sudan now. It is not
just a Bashir-Salva issue but more a US-China issue, especially
post-Libya." - Aly Khan Satchu, a financial analyst.

SUDAN OIL WARS AND THE LAMU PIPELINE The Star
http://j.mp/zcww13

My Extraordinary Experience at the Masai Mara Fairmont Safari Club
Part 1 The Star
http://j.mp/A8cZLq

My Extraordinary Experience at the Masai Mara Fairmont Safari Club
Part 2 The Star
http://j.mp/wAF0HF

Macro Thoughts

The Black Swan Nanyuki Twitpic
http://j.mp/xEw2Fv

Home Thoughts

Thinking about Life Walking on the Beach Lake Magadi Kenya Twitpic
http://WWW.TWITPIC.COM/4oroke

There is not a single Day that I do not remember My Mother Twitpic
http://WWW.TWITPIC.COM/5fzbkp

Life Is A Rollercoaster - by Ronan Keating #YouTube
http://j.mp/xlHnwp

Egypt caught in spiral of disaster "the deadliest soccer riot anywhere in more than 15 years" Asia Times

Africa

While new information about what happened on Wednesday in the Egyptian
city of Port Said is still coming to light, the gist of the official
story is that fans of two rival Egyptian football teams, the local
al-Masry and Cairo's al-Ahly, clashed after a game.

Conclusions

Yet the army’s tricks - if this is what we are observing - come at a
risk, and carry a price. As of early Thursday morning, thousands of
Egyptians were reportedly protesting in Cairo and in other cities
against the military rule. If the regime ends up absorbing some of the
blame for the disaster, it stands to lose more than it could possibly
gain. Now, at least, it may be able to share the losses with the
Muslim Brotherhood. Then again, stranger things have happened on the
Nile

February 2, 2011 attack against the opposition in Tahrir Square by
supporters of former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak on horses and
camels.
http://j.mp/ymKLT6

Iran Blocks U.N. Nuclear Inspectors WSJ

Law & Politics

Iran denied United Nations inspectors access to a suspected nuclear
site, scientists and documents during a visit to Tehran this week.

An amendment to the bill provides for possible sanctions against the
management and ownership of the Belgium-based Society for Worldwide
Interbank Financial Telecommunications, or Swift, which facilitates
the flow of electronic financial transactions globally.

U.S. lawmakers are alleging that Swift has aided blacklisted Iranian
banks in evading U.S. and European Union sanctions, a charge the
organization denies. "The measures…will further increase the pressure
on Iran to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons and sponsorship of
global terrorism," said Tim Johnson (D., S.D.) chairman of the Senate
Banking Committee.

THE ROVING EYE Fear and loathing in the American Gulf Pepe Escobar Asia Times

Law & Politics

Time to review the evidence. In roughly one month, no less than three
US aircraft carriers and their strike groups will be sloshing around
the American Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea; the USS
Abraham Lincoln, USS Carl Vinson and USS Enterprise, plus good ol'
French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. And yet one
more Pacific-based US aircraft carrier can be swiftly dispatched. The
Pentagon's CENTCOM is fast upgrading the 14,000-kilogram Orwellian
bunker-buster monster known as Massive Ordinance Penetrator (MOP),
theoretically capable of taking out Iran's underground nuclear
installations.

USS Abraham Lincoln Image
http://j.mp/xCtWB9

Gastrologik, Stockholm's newest gastronomic phenomenon WSJ

Food, Climate & Agriculture

Gastrologik, Stockholm's newest gastronomic phenomenon. But when you
open the menu card, you are faced with a blank page except for some
tiny writing at the bottom—the prices of two tasting-menu options.
Diners are asked whether they have food allergies and are then
presented with each course as a surprise, only getting a detailed copy
of the menu, with the headline "Let today's produce decide," when they
depart.

Sweden is now delving deeper into what is termed New Nordic
cuisine—fresh ingredients and foraged products cooked (or raw), to
enhance the flavors on your plate. Gastrologik's approach is similar,
although perhaps, to be more accurate, it should be broadened to be
called New Natural cuisine, as these principles have been applied in
top French restaurants such as L'Arpège, L'Astrance and Bras for some
time. Nevertheless, Swedish cuisine is now at the forefront of
creative Scandinavian cuisine, with a handful of restaurants such as
Fäviken, Mistral and Frantzén/Lindeberg, leading the way.

Deep-fried cod belly in a sourdough batter on a plate of hot pebbles.

Mali capital paralysed by anti-rebellion protests Reuters

Law & Politics

BAMAKO (Reuters) - Hundreds of Malians set up barricades and burned
tyres in the streets of Bamako on Thursday, shutting down the capital
in the latest protests against a rebellion that has seized several
northern towns, and the government's handling of it.

The protest in the capital comes after the Tuareg-led rebels, who are
fighting for an independent north, took control of the northeastern
town of Menaka.

Dozens of people have been reported killed and thousands of civilians
have fled their homes after the rebels launched a three-pronged
assault south in mid-January.

But the demonstrations, sparked by local reports that the military ran
out of ammunition and that dozens of soldiers may have been executed
during rebel attacks, have raised the prospects of clashes between
Malian communities.

In his first public statement since the rebellion began, Mali's
President Amadou Toumani Toure late on Wednesday pledged not to give
in to separatist demands but, in a sign of concerns that the conflict
could spread, called on Malians to refrain from attacks on any
particular community.

"Do not confuse those who are shooting at military bases with those
who are living amongst us, who are our neighbours, colleagues," he
said on state television.

Conclusions

I wish Jonathan had said something similar to President Toure.

President Amadou Toumani Toure 4:30PM GMT 17 Jan 2012 Telegraph
http://j.mp/AfpGdm

The redeployment of troops in Mali last week to fight al-Qaeda was
yesterday blamed for triggering a clashes for control of Manaka, a
market town, between the army and desert nomads. Fighting in Menaka
was so fierce the government of President Amadou Toumani Toure was
forced to deploy helicopter gunships to fend off Tuareg fighters.
Security experts said that the government's deployment of additional
troops to Mali's desert music festival, held near Timbuktu in Mali's
north, had sparked the offensive by the Tuareg factions and its
al-Qaeda allies

Toumani Diabaté - Cantelowes live at El Real Alcazar #YouTube
http://j.mp/pmA7oq

BAMAKO Mali the lobby of Sangare's hotel Photography
http://j.mp/z2O0Fd

Tuareg people Wikipedia
http://j.mp/wvC4wP

The Tuareg (also Twareg or Touareg, Berber: Imuhagh, besides regional
ethnyms) are a Berber nomadic pastoralist people. They are the
principal inhabitants of the Saharan interior of North Africa.

The Tuareg people inhabit a large area, covering almost all the middle
and western Sahara and the north-central Sahel. In Tuareg terms, the
Sahara is not one desert but many, so they call it Tinariwen ("the
Deserts"). Among the many deserts in Africa, there is the true desert
Ténéré.

Tuareg riding a Camel FLICKR
http://j.mp/yR6PUI

Social media #AfricaTweets Economist

Information & Communication Technology

@Africa: Twenty countries sent over 11m tweets in the last quarter of
2011, Africa is an officially paid-up member of the Twittersphere
#AfricaProgress
@jacobzuma: South Africa is wired! 5m tweets—number one in Africa!
@Africa: Who needs computers? 57% of tweets were sent from mobile
phones #CoolAfrotech
@KenyaGov: Egypt shmeegit. Kenya rocks twitter. 2.5m tweets to your 1.2m
@DisgruntledKenyan:@GovKenya no thanks to you!
@SPRINGBOKS: Ek verstaan nie
@SaifQaddafi:Catching up with reality television now I have some time
on my hands. New season of I’m A Tyrant Get Me Out Of Here rocks.
#KeepingItSaif
@Africa: Chitchat with friends and following the news form the bulk of
tweets #Notthatdifferent
@PresidentofGhana: "twitter machine" arrived this morning.
@Africa: 94% of those on Twitter use Facebook too #NoSurprisesThere
@AlQaeda: infidels get ready Somali al-Shabab has set up its own
Twitter account @HSMpress
@HillaryClinton: feeling glum African al-Qaeda @HSMpress has over
10,000 followers
@Bono: Africans tweeting each other, not me, about news, not me #sadface
@GovernmentEthiopia: 1billion tweets on their way by 2020!
@GovEritrea: we have no twits
@UhuruKenyatta: Dad founded Kenya. I’m going to The Hague and tweeting about it
@MorganTsvangirai: ******* **** ******* ****** ******** ****** **
******* #ZimPolitics
@UhuruKenyatta: As I leave for The Hague tonight, I would like to
thank you all for the support, encouragement and prayers that you have
accorded to me
@RobertMugabe: I have a farm in Africa. Lots actually. #ReadingIsakDinesen
@LibyanRebels: Does this thing run on oil? #HopeSpringsEternal

Conclusions

Cute.

The Point remains that Africa has embraced the Information Century and
the Mobile Phone was the Game Changer. In many respects, its a
Laboratory Experiment.

Aly-Khan Satchu
http://www.rich.co.ke
Nairobi

“Jonathan is fighting political battles on all fronts, and at the moment he seems to be losing all of them,” Spio-Garbrah Bloomberg

Law & Politics

Central Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi said Jan. 31 that there are no
signs the security and political concerns have sparked “any massive
movement of capital out of the country.”

Yields on Nigeria’s international dollar bonds due 2021 have fallen 33
basis points, or 0.33 percentage point, this year to 5.819 percent as
of 4:12 p.m. in London, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The
Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index (NGSEINDX) has risen 0.4
percent to 20,822. The naira has gained 1.1 percent this year to
160.57 per dollar on the interbank market, according to data compiled
by Bloomberg.

“Tensions on the narrow issue of fuel subsidies have unleashed broader
popular anger over corruption and inequality,” Elliot said. “After
decades of shattered promises, today’s generation have difficulty
believing in the Nigerian state as an agent of development.”

Activists copied the tactics of protesters in the Arab world and on
Wall Street, using social media such as Facebook and Twitter to
organize an Occupy Nigeria movement.

“Nigeria is never going to be the same again,” factory owner Ali said.
“I grew up with no power, the security challenges in our country,
corruption every day. A lot of us have been talking for a while and
we’re all really tired with the issues our country is facing.”

WILL NIGERIAN FUEL PROTESTS TURN INTO A REVOLUTION? The Star Jan 16
http://j.mp/yyE1vV

Naira Rises Against Dollar on Nigeria Central Bank Stabilization Bloomberg
http://j.mp/xqSeDa

Nigeria’s naira advanced against the dollar for a third day after the
central bank of Africa’s top crude producer said it favoured a stable
currency.The naira strengthened 0.3 percent to 160.65 per dollar as of
11:17 a.m. in Lagos, the commercial capital, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.

The West African nation isn’t under pressure to devalue the naira
again after lowering its band against the dollar last year, Central
Bank of Nigeria Governor Lamido Sanusi said yesterday. The bank kept
its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record high for a second
consecutive meeting Jan. 31 and Sanusi said he favors a stable
exchange rate while building up reserves.

The foreign-exchange reserves of Africa’s most populous nation have
risen 4.5 percent this year to $34.4 billion as of Jan. 27, according
to Central Bank of Nigeria data.

Petrodar Says It Has Reported South Sudanese Oil-Output Volumes Accurately Bloomberg

Commodities

Petrodar Operating Co., an oil- pipeline operator in Sudan, said it
has reported production volumes to South Sudan’s government
“accurately and transparently” since beginning output in 2006. South
Sudanese Oil Minister Stephen Dhieu Dau said on Jan. 27 his government
would investigate whether Petrodar had under- reported output by
40,000 barrels per day.

“We have always operated in a professional and ethical manner in line
with international standards and will continue to do so in future,”
Petrodar said in an e-mailed statement today from Juba, South Sudan’s
capital.

British Virgin Islands-registered Petrodar’s shareholders include
state-owned China National Petroleum Corp., Malaysia’s Petroliam
Nasional Bhd and the government-controlled Sudan Petroleum Co.

Court bars debate over whether ICC pair will run for presidency NATION

Law & Politics

Mr Justice Isaac Lenaola ruled that pending the hearing and
determination of a petition filed by civil society groups challenging
the eligibility of the two after they were indicted by the ICC, the
matter was now in court and therefore not for public debate.

“The question of whether Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto are qualified to run
for the presidency in the coming elections is now before court and all
persons and authorities enjoined are not to discuss the matter in
public failure to which the court may take such action as it deems
appropriate,” ruled Justice Lenaola.

Justice Lenaola added that Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto, who were not
represented in court, were at liberty to revisit the orders if they
feel gagged and aggrieved by the directions when the matter is
mentioned on February 17.

The rule restricts media from carrying news reports or commentaries on
whether or not Uhuru and Ruto can contest the presidency.

Conclusions

The Court has surely done everyone [including the Two Principals in
question] a Favour.

UAE and India beat China to top trading position with Kenya Business Daily

International Trade

The value of UAE exports to Kenya rose to Sh177.8 billion or 23.3 per
cent of Kenya’s total imports in the first 11 months to November
compared to China’s Sh132.9 billion or 17.4 per cent of imports,
according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).The
increase was helped by petroleum exports. China was Kenya’s largest
source of imports in 2010 after Beijing deepened its presence in East
Africa with mega infrastructure development projects.But increased
consumption of expensive petroleum products and rising interest of
Indian companies in the Kenyan economy have combined to push China to
the third spot in what could intensify the rivalry between the two
Asian giants.

Though the rivalry between India and China has played out as a battle
of the Asian giants, the biggest losers have been the traditional
Western trading partners such as Britain whose share of the market has
been on a steady decline.

UAE share of the export business has increased to 23.3 per cent last
year from 19.5 per cent while China’s has dropped to 17.4 per cent
from 19.8 per cent with India’s stake increasing to 18 per cent from
16.4 per cent.

AFRICA DEBT-E.African bond investors eye long-term paper Reuters

Africa

NAIROBI, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Bond investors in East Africa yearn for
sales of longer-term government paper to secure high yields and
benefit from capital gains spurred by rate cuts seen later this
year.Yields on government securities in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda
surged in 2011 as inflation and benchmark interest rates rocketed, and
governments struggled to plug budget deficits.With the exception of
Tanzania, regional inflation started easing at the end of last year,
helped by aggressive monetary tightening and improved food supplies
after a drought.Analysts said with inflation likely to continue
falling, benchmark lending rates in Uganda already on the way down and
likely to be cut in Kenya, longer-term bonds were attractive.

Aly Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based independent economist, said the
market was expecting longer-term bonds to be sold as governments seek
to raise more funds after demand at many Treasury bill sales fell
short at the end of last year.

"Inflation rates have crossed their cycle highs across the region and
long-term bonds in Uganda and Kenya are an outrageous buy," Satchu
said. "The fixed income market is a free lunch."

"The recent tempering of the inflation rate coupled with a Bundesbank
ahead-of-the-curve monetary policy tells me that we are in fact done
here in Uganda and that extending duration in the Uganda bond market
is a no-brainer," he said.

Duration is a measure of how long it takes for the cash flow from the
security to be received. The longer the duration, the more the bond
price will rise for an equivalent yield fall.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume 797,600
total turnover 2,565,420
avg price 3.21 closing PRICE 3.20
high price 3.30
low price 3.20
last price 3.20

Conclusions

Safaricom did not manage to trade 1m shares which confirms how quiet
the Securities Exchange was today. Safaricom has rallied 16.363% Dec
9th through today.

Uchumi traded 3rd at the Exchange. Uchumi eased 1.37% to close at 7.20
and traded 523,000 shares. Uchumi returned to the Exchange May 31st
Last Year after a more than 5 Year Suspension. Uchumi returned at a
Price of 14.50, which was the Price it had been suspended at. Uchumi
then fell 53.448% May 31 through Dec 16th when it closed at a Low of
6.75. Uchumi now sits just 6.666% above that December 16th Closing
Low. Uchumi did report H1 2011 Results where Pretax income for the six
months through December climbed to 204.3 million shillings ($2.4
million) compared with 162.2 million shillings a year earlier, while
sales jumped to 7.5 billion shillings from 5.8 billion shillings.

Uchumi H1 2011 Results and share Price Date here
http://j.mp/ch9oUs

ScanGroup firmed 1.829% to close at 41.75 and traded 22,100 shares.

Access Kenya fell 3.191% to close at 4.55 and traded 67,500 shares.
Access Kenya remains the biggest Loser at the Exchange 12 Months
through today having retreated 65.27%.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank was the most active share. KCB retreated 0.78%
to close at 19.10 and traded just 350,100 shares. KCB has rallied
27.333% Dec 2nd through today, ie 2 Months. KCB trades on a 6.9104
Trailing PE and the Emergence from a 'deeply oversold' Position is
still in play and therefore, there is further to go on the Upside.
Barclays Bank traded 2nd and eased 0.405% to close at 12.35 and traded
511,400 shares. Barclays Bank has corrected 31.388% from its 52 week
High of 18.00 from May last Year. Barclays Bank has retreated 12.3% 12
Months through today.
Equity Bank closed unchanged at 17.30 and traded 133,800 shares.
COOP Bank eased 0.386% to close at 12.90 and traded 93,700 shares.
StanChart eased 2 shillings to close at 157.00 and traded 7,000 shares.

Kenya Re rebounded 6.25% to close at 7.65 and traded 264,200 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL firmed 0.59% to close at 170.00 and traded 3,400 shares. EABL has
outperformed the NSE20 Index by a wide Margin and is -3.72% over 12
Months and the Thin Volume today signals that Supply has been hollowed
out at these Levels and therefore, given the clearly Muscular Demand
for SSA Beverage and Beer Type Equity as evidenced in the Tanzania
Breweries Over Subscription and Sell Out, I expect EABL to kick on
from here and through the Release of its results Feb 17th.

KenGen fell 3.205% to a Fresh All Time Closing Low of 7.55 and traded
Session Lows of 7.35 -5.77%. KenGen traded 68,200 shares. KenGen is
-51.86% 12 Months through today and its Market Capitalisation is
16.597b.
KPLC eased 10 cents to close at 15.85 and traded 41,600 shares.

KenolKobil firmed 0.487% to close at 10.30 and traded 39,600 shares.
KenolKobil remains a Bull Outlier at the Exchange having posted a
+15.69 1 Year Return and that excludes a 57 cents Interim Dividend
which further juiced the returns. The Nicolas Biwott Model is clearly
an optimal One as far as Shareholders at the Nairobi Securities
Exchange are concerned, I venture. It remains an undervalued share,
in fact. They have already nailed their Colours to the Mast re They
are eventually seeking to be bought out and they continue to expand
their Regional Footprint. Plenty of Street Smarts.
Total Kenya closed unchanged at 16.50.

Eveready rebounded 6.451% to close at 1.65 and traded 1.023m shares.
Eveready released its FY Results a few days before where it reported a
FY Loss.