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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

#Mindspeak Feb 25th Guest Ambassador Sec Gen EAC @RSEZIBERA

I am looking forward to this.

SecGen EAC Dr.Richard Sezibera cites #Kenyans4Kenya @Bobcollymore @oduormartinO
http://www.twitpic.com/8en9ei

Pierre Trouilhat CEO @Nestle Equatorial African Region #Mindspeak RICH TV
http://j.mp/1mPS6v

Pierre Trouilhat #Nestle Equatorial #Africa @ InterContinental #Nairobi Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/8clmo6

Pierre Trouilhat The Power Point Presentation
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcfrbs/frbwriters.php

Macro Thoughts

Keep an Eye on Crude Oil.

Home Thoughts

One of My Favourite Songs has to be Touch The Sky by Kanye West YouTube
http://j.mp/9WF6xz

Its such an Impossible is Nothing Song I love it.

And Yesterday [and actually its been a rising viral Tide] the numbers
on the Site http://www.rich.co.ke were twice as high as our Previous
All Time High.

Mine is an Eye Ball Model, of course, so Thats been pretty exciting.

The Tipping Point
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tipping_Point

Gladwell defines a tipping point as "the moment of critical mass, the
threshold, the boiling point."[1] The book seeks to explain and
describe the "mysterious" sociological changes that mark everyday
life. As Gladwell states, "Ideas and products and messages and
behaviors spread like viruses do."[2]

Members of al-Qaeda have infiltrated Syrian opposition groups, and
likely executed recent bombings in the nation’s capital and largest
city, the United States’ top intelligence official said Thursday.

The remarks by Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper are
the most definitive to date from a senior Obama administration
official on al-Qaeda’s efforts to insert itself into the Syrian
uprising.

Two bombings in Damascus in December, as well as deadly attacks on
security and intelligence buildings in Aleppo last week, “had all the
earmarks of an al-Qaeda-like attack,” Clapper said, adding that the
network’s affiliate in Iraq “is extending its reach into Syria.”

Clapper seemed to go a step farther, describing al-Qaeda’s presence
among militant groups as “another disturbing phenomenon that we’ve
seen.”

Conclusions

I spoke to this in my Podcast yesterday. We are getting into Bed again
with Folks who are essentially beyond the Pale. And the Blow Back from
these Folks is not de Minimis.

Robert Fisk: Could there be some bad guys among the rebels too?
http://j.mp/w1LFFO

Maybe it goes back to the Paris Commune of 1871 – French versus
French, but let's forget that bit – or the Warsaw Uprising, or the
1944 Liberation of Paris. The French used to talk about les tireurs
des toits – the roof marksmen – who assaulted even Charles de Gaulle
when he entered Notre Dame on the day of liberation. Homs, of course,
has its own tireurs des toits: Syrian government snipers on the roofs
– Iranians according to the Syrian opposition. As if the Syrian
military needs to be taught how to shoot by the slightly decrepit
Revolutionary Guards of Tehran. Stories of the brutality and cruelty
of Syrian officials are true. Let's repeat that: stories, reports,
images, YouTube, real recordings of these cruelties, are all true. But
then there's the shocked face of my friend, neither Syrian nor a
journalist, drinking coffee with me, who agrees with much of the
story. Snipers, yes. "Most of the shooting victims are hit in the head
or chest. If you are hit by a sniper, you are in a serious way." There
has been shelling – of homes and of at least one clinic – and there
are graves in gardens. But then there are the other little comments,
almost forgettable but still disturbing. The habit of "Free Syrian
Army" soldiers of playing Islamic music before crossing roads under
sniper fire and of praying before pressing their foot on the gas.
Well, nothing wrong in that, for heaven's sake.

Then the large number of FSA men who appear to be Islamist rather than
Islamic – this subtle difference is initially hard to spot, says my
friend. And then the boasts of "armed activists" in Homs – there now
seems to be a gentle difference between activists (armed) and
protesters (unarmed) – who are executing their Alawite and Christian
neighbours.

My friend (no acolyte of the Baath party) expresses his absolute
belief that if the FSA breaks out of Homs, there will be "massacres".
The ethnic cleansing of the Christians, then, the nightmare that Assad
evokes? And the rumours that Syrian tanks use heavy machine guns in
cities but growl around without shells for their barrels – just in
case they, too, defect? Could it be that shelling Homs is one thing,
but levelling it to the ground a much more painful gamble of "will the
tank-crews defect or not"?

Euro 1.3125 Yesterday began with the single currency lodged below 1.30
before the Bounce
Japan Yen 78.99 It earlier touched 79.18, the weakest since Oct. 31,
when the yen set a postwar record against the dollar at 75.35,
Dollar Index ^DXY 79.40
Swiss Franc 0.9197
Pound 1.5797
Aussie 1.0762 was at 1.0673 on Feb. 10.
India Rupee 49.235
South Korea Won 1126.60
Brazil Real 1.7184
Egypt Pound 6.0387
South Africa Rand 7.7711

The U.S. economy is gaining momentum, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
President Richard Fisher said in a CNBC interview yesterday. Policy
makers will take note of the “improved data,” he said.

The dollar has fallen 2.9 percent in the past month, the worst
performance after the yen’s 6.1 percent decline among 10 developed
market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation- Weighted Indexes.
The euro has gained 0.3 percent in the same period.

Conclusions

I expect the Dollar to produce the best Returns from here over the
next 12 Months [especially versus the Yen and the Euro]

Dollar versus Yen 3 Month Chart INO 79.02 Last
http://j.mp/x9thPD

It earlier touched 79.18, the weakest since Oct. 31, when the yen set
a postwar record against the dollar at 75.35.

Conclusions

80.00 looks a Shoe In.

Dollar Index ^DXY 1 Year Chart INO 79.42 Last
http://j.mp/sKbLJD

I think we are headed towards 83.00 and that Further Quantitative
Easing is Talk.

New Zealand Dollar versus US Dollar 0.8360 Last
http://j.mp/yXEpuB

The New Zealand dollar, known as the kiwi, extended gains against most
of its major peers this week after Reserve Bank Governor Bollard said
gross domestic product could be as much as 10 percent higher than
official data by adopting a range of statistical conventions used in
other countries such as Australia.

“New Zealand is in some ways better off than is often thought,” he
said in e-mailed notes for a speech to the Trans- Tasman Business
Circle, citing a research paper.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a nearly four-year high, boosted
by signs of an accelerating U.S. economic recovery and glimmers of
hope on the Greek debt crisis.The Dow surged 123.13 points, or 1%, to
12904.08. Thursday's rise was the biggest one-day point and percentage
gain in two weeks and left the blue-chip index less than 100 points
from the 13000 level it last hit in May 2008. The Dow has now run
higher for 34 days without a single triple-digit decline, the longest
run in more than a year. All 10 sectors of the Standard & Poor's
500-stock index finished with gains.

Live Crude Oil chart 103.02 Last
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php

Crude for March delivery rose as much as 64 cents to $102.95 a barrel
on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $102.84 at 4:01 p.m.
Singapore time. Prices yesterday rose 51 cents, or 0.5 percent, to
$102.31, the highest close since Jan. 4. They are up 4.2 percent this
week, the most since the period ended Dec. 23, and have gained 19
percent from a year ago.Brent oil for April settlement rose 25 cents
to $120.36 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract
yesterday jumped $1.18, or 1 percent, to $120.11 a barrel, the highest
close in eight months. The premium to West Texas Intermediate for the
same month was at $17.38, compared with a record $27.88 on Oct. 14.

Conclusions

I expect Fresh 52 Week Highs.

Iran will increase the volume of oil it ships to China “soon,”
state-run Mehr news agency reported, citing an an unidentified
official at National Iranian Oil Co.
China and Iran agreed on pricing and sales methods for the oil
contract, Mehr reported, without giving further details. A NIOC
official at the company’s Singapore crude marketing office, who asked
not to be identified in line with company policy, declined to comment
on the report.

China is the world’s biggest buyer of Iran’s oil, accounting for 22
percent of its exports, according to the U.S. Energy Information
Administration. Unipec and NIOC reached an agreement in principle on
the 2012 supply contract, the Wall Street Journal reported today,
citing an unidentified person familiar with Iran’s oil sales.

Nymex Crude Oil 6 Month Chart 103.02 Last
http://j.mp/wma0Ch

Flohr wanted a buffer between us and the trattoria's bustle, and
concocting a cover story was merely his way of securing it. The price
of privacy is something of an obsession for Flohr. His company,
VistaJet, sells flights aboard private jets for an hourly fee, a
business he aims to make as seamless and consistent as checking into a
luxury hotel. A flight between London and Moscow aboard one of Flohr's
silver jets can be arranged for 40,000 euros, which is roughly
equivalent to "burning through four Hermès handbags," Flohr notes.

"If you would have asked me three years ago to quote you a price from
Ulan Bator to Shanghai, I would have said forget it. Today it's a
daily route!" Flohr says.

On a recent morning, the high-flying work of art was sitting on a
tarmac in Rwanda. For Flohr, located a world away in his Milan
apartment, the plane was but one of dozens he tracks daily from his
MacBook, receiving real-time updates on their whereabouts, staff and
passengers. Each piece of data gets crunched and analyzed by the
former asset manager—all part of Flohr's endless quest to wring cost
savings from a business built on self-indulgence. "We really are
detail-obsessed," he says. "But the joy is seeing the big picture."

1. EYES FOR DETAIL | Nina Flohr's headline-grabbing 18th birthday in
St. Petersburg featured a formal dinner in the style of Imperial
Russia.
2. GRAND ENTRY | Art by Raphael Mazzucco hangs in the foyer of the
Flohrs' Milan apartment
3. FLIGHT PLAN | The interior of a Bombardier Challenger VistaJet,
with cashmere throws

Egypt’s politicians and media are issuing ever-louder accusations of
American meddling just as the country seeks loans from the
International Monetary Fund, where the U.S. is the biggest
shareholder.

“America is behind the chaos,” blared a red headline on the front page
of state-run Al-Gomhuria newspaper this week. The Muslim Brotherhood
said U.S. money was being spent “to destroy Egypt and ruin its
society.” The dispute over the prosecution of employees at U.S.-based
NGOs, accused of breaking rules on foreign financing, has opened the
deepest rift for decades between the military allies. It’s happening
as the government prepares to submit an economic program to parliament
that will be the basis for its application for a $3.2 billion IMF
credit.

Yields on Egyptian dollar bonds maturing in 2020 rose to 7.31 percent
yesterday, up 57 basis points since Jan. 26, when the State Department
said several U.S. citizens had been questioned by Egyptian judges.
Yields surged to a record 8.79 percent earlier last month before
retreating when the government reversed course and announced it would
apply for IMF loans that it rejected last year.

Asked about concern that Egypt’s dispute with the U.S. may affect its
loan prospects, the IMF said in an e-mailed statement that “the
success of the authorities’ economic program hinges critically on
broad political support from a cross-section of stakeholders in Egypt,
as well as financial support from multilateral and bilateral
development partners.”

Essam el-Erian, a leader of the Brotherhood’s party, says his group
may vote against it, unless it is convinced there are no alternatives.
He said Egypt should trim spending, and cited the risks of borrowing
abroad.

“Look at Greece,” el-Erian said in an interview this week. “Everybody
is telling it what to do.”

Conclusions

They are moving ever closer to a Precipice.

Egypt ^EGX30 Bloomberg +37.27% 2012 World's Best
http://j.mp/nmbkOT

4,967.15
-36.30
-0.73%
Year To Date:     +37.27%
Previous Close:     5,003.45    
52-Week Range:     3,577.79 - 6,308.65    
1-Year:     -12.03%

There are about 3,500 Somali people working as pirates, attacking and
hijacking vessels in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, according
to Wayne Miller, an official from the United Nations Office on Drugs
and Crime.The number of Somalis who have turned to piracy is greater
than the 2,000 figure commonly cited in counter-piracy campaigns,
Miller, who is based in Nairobi, Kenya, said today at a conference in
London. His estimate was based on talks with pirates in Somalia last
November, when the end of the monsoon season typically sees attacks
rise, Miller said.

Somali pirate attacks rose to a record 237 in 2011, with ransoms worth
$160 million paid to release 31 hijacked vessels, according to a One
Earth Future Foundation report released last week. About 42,450
vessels pass through the region annually, the foundation said. Of
these, 23,000 transit the Gulf of Aden carrying $1 trillion of trade,
the U.K. government estimates. Piracy cost the shipping industry and
governments $6.9 billion last year, including $2.7 billion in extra
fuel to speed up through the area and $1.27 billion on military
operations, according to the foundation.

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:          176.00
Total Shares Issued:          790,774,976
Market Capitalization:        139,176,395,776
EPS:            9.30
PE:                18.925

H1 2011 versus H1 2010 Results Swot Analysis
Revenue 27.777b versus 20.463b +35.74%
Net Finance Costs [642m] versus 50
Profit Before Income Tax 6.67b versus 6.165b
Profit After Tax 4.877b versus 4.152b +17.461%
Earnings Per Share 5.55 versus 4.03 +37.71%
Total Comprehensive Income 4.561b versus 3.990b
Long Term Borrowings 23.32b versus 3.918b
Available for Sale Investments Tanzania Breweries 2.465b - versus 6.3b
Actual Sale before Deductions - which will feed in at FY and it looks
real Material
Interim Dividend 2.50 a share
Purchase of NCI share of Kenya Breweries 20.876b

Commentary

''The Impressive Performance is a direct result of sustained Focus on
our Grwoth Strategy, anchored on our Strong Brands,
innovations.....Tusker growing 21%..solid performance in premium and
mainstream Spirits...'' Seni Adetu.
Uganda showing strong Momentum.

My Twitpic comments from the Investor Briefing are here
http://www.twitpic.com/photos/ALYKHANSATCHU

Conclusions

I thought these H1 Results plain muscular. PAT accelerated 17.461% and
EPS +37.71% with a Windfall Gain still to be bagged in the FY Earnings
Release from the TBL Share Sale. Clearly EABL is investing
aggressively in Tanzania at this Point, has gained serious Traction in
Uganda and the Great Lakes Region.

I cannot Fault these Results and I see an Inflection Point in the
Earnings Trajectory here.

FY Results to 30th June 2011 versus FY Results June 2010
Net Revenue 44.895b versus 38.679b +16%
Cost of Sales 22.831b versus 19.537b +17%
Selling and Distributions costs 3.491b +36%
PBT 12.249b versus 12.569b -3.00%
PAT 9.014b versus 8.838b +2.00%
EPS 9.30 versus 9.09 +2.00%
Final Dividend 6.25 Total Dividend PayOut 8.75
Dividend Yield 5.47%
Serengeti now consolidated into Accounts

Conclusions

I thought these Results beat the Street Estimates. Operationally, 2011
has presented a lot of challenges. Also, they are taking a more
offensive Position in the Region. I think they have executed both Good
Defence and Good Offence. EABL trades at a PE Premium to the NSE and
the Dividend Yield is 5.47% which is surely attractive.

1st Half Results End December 2010 Swot Analysis
Interim Dividend 2.50
Revenue 20.463 Billion versus 18.617b
operating Profit 6.115b versus 5.342b
Profit After Tax 4.152b versus 4.223b
EPS 4.03 versus 4.41

EABL Retirement of Chairman Jeremiah Kiereini Announcement
http://j.mp/yCcA59

If we need to borrow to expand we will Seni Adetu #EABL #Diageo #Africa #Beer
http://www.twitpic.com/8kyctl

EABL Vision Statement Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/8ky04n

Do Watch Seni Adetu at #Mindspeak RICH TV
http://j.mp/xXEnuN

The Power Point presentation is here
http://j.mp/xXEnuN

The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.29 points to close at 70.23.
The NSE20 rallied 27.68 points to close at 3182.14.
Market Cap was 896.268b versus 892.589b.
Equity Turnover was 133.644m versus 117.485m and dominated by EABL
+1.7025%, Barclays Bank which has rallied 5.993% over 2 Sessions,
Safaricom and KCB.
Barclays Bank kicked off the Reporting Season yesterday and EABL
reported muscular H1 Results Pre Open today.
Both Sets of Results beat consensus Expectations and that Fact is
Evidenced in the Price Reactions after the Releases.
The Market remains bifurcated with Transcentury and Access Kenya
closing at Fresh All Time Lows. KenGen closed at an All Time Low for
the 2nd Consecutive Session.
The Shilling was last at 82.83 which is a whisker away from a 12 Month High.

SAFARICOM

shares volume    7,234,900
total turnover    24,054,940
avg price    3.32
high price    3.35
low price    3.25
last price    3.30

Conclusions

Safaricom traded 3rd and closed unchanged at 3.30 with 7.234m shares
worth 24.054m changing hands. The Buyers who were peppering the Board
on Thursday decided to try and be a little subtle today. Safaricom has
rallied 20% since December 9th and underlying Buy Side Demand is
muscular.

Uchumi rebounded 5% to close at 7.35 and traded 12,300 shares.

Access Kenya retreated 1.18% to close at 4.20 a Fresh All Time Closing
Low. Access Kenya traded shares as low 4.10 Intra Day which is a Fresh
All Time Intra Day Low. Access Kenya has retreated 62.33% 12 Months
through Today and the Market Capitalisation is Kenya Shillings
839.52m.

Kenya Commercial Bank traded 2nd and eased 0.25% to close at 19.65 and
traded a 19.65-20.00 range and 1.681m shares worth 33.038m. There is
clearly a Block of shares at 20.00 and for now that is acting as Near
Term Resistance. KCB has rallied 30.654% since Dec 1st and will test
and cross 20.00 ahead of its FY Earnings Release. KCB accelerated Q3
2011 PAT 43.089% and that probably accelerated through the Year End.

Barclays Bank followed on yesterdays Rally of 4.84% to close a further
1.153% higher at 13.15 and was trading at 13.40 +3.08% at the Closing
Bell. Barclays Bank traded 845,000 shares worth 11.121m. Barclays Bank
reported FY 2011 Results yesterday.

COOP Bank firmed 1.6806% to close at 12.10 and traded 236,400 shares.
DTB ticked 2.82% higher to close at 91.00 and traded 8,200 shares.
CFC StanBic ticked 3.144% higher to close at 41.00 and traded 800 shares.
StanChart firmed 0.62% to close at 160.00 and traded 6,800 shares.
Equity Bank ticked 0.26% higher to close at 19.05 and traded 99,300 shares.

Transcentury fell 4.65% to close at 20.50 which is a Fresh All Time
Closing Low. Transcentury traded 57.00 on July 14th 2011 and has now
fallen 64.03% July 14th 2011 through today.

EABL reported its H1 Earnings at the Serena Hotel this Morning before
the Opening Bell. Seni Adetu reported that EABL H1 Revenue increased
35.74% to 27.777b, PAT increased 17.461% Earnings Per Share was
+37.71% at 5.55 and that an Interim Dividend of 2.50 would be paid.
Long Term Borrowings are at 23.32b but the Balance sheet remains solid
and has room for further Leverage as Mr. Adetu confirmed when he said
'' If we need to borrow to expand we will''
http://www.twitpic.com/8kyctl Clearly there have been Macro Economic
Challenges, the East African Currency Volatllity during this period
was unprecedented and that makes these Earnings even more impressive
frankly. There will also be a Material One Off Gain from the Sale of
the Shares in Tanzania Breweries in the Full Year Release. Uganda was
a Stand Out. They are aggressively investing in Tanzania.
International Macro Level Interest in SSA Beer and Beverage Equity has
been elevated for a while and I think it will remain elevated and
these Results will surely only encourage those Folks Further. I said
the following to Businessweek

Diageo Kenyan Unit First-Half Profit Rises 17% as Sales Jump Businessweek
http://j.mp/yi3yW5

“They have hit the ball out of the park,” said Aly Khan Satchu, chief
executive officer of Nairobi-based investment company Rich Management,
said in an interview today. “I see further acceleration in full year.”

EABL rallied 1.7025% to close at 179.00 and was trading at 180.00
+2.27% and was Bid for Good Size at that level at the Finish Line.
EABL traded 264,600 shares worth 47.491m and that was 35.53% of the
Volume traded at the Securities Exchange in todays Session. EABL is
-0.81% excluding Dividends on a 12 Month Basis versus an ^NSE 20 Index
which is -25.69% over the same period and I expect that Spread to
widen. EABL's 52 week Closing High is 217.00 and I expect to see
Upwards Traction towards 200.00.

Mr. Adetu was very gracious about his long Serving Chairman who
retired yesterday.

Mumias Sugar firmed 1.11% to close at 4.55 and traded 251,600 shares.

KenGen closed unchanged at 7.30 and traded 25,600 shares.
KPLC closed unchanged