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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke
FY Results Interview with @BobCollymore CEO #Safaricom RICH #TV http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtvi.php
Africa's quest for sustained economic growth Inside Story @AJELive @AJEnglish Africa http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2013/05/201351184230371482.html
#Africa 's quest for sustained economic growth @AJELive @AJEnglish Twitpic http://www.twitpic.com/cpzhur
I am looking forward to hosting @HabilOlaka of the @KenyaBankers at #Mindspeak on Saturday 25th May http://twitpic.com/cprlag
#Mindspeak is held at @InterConNairobi http://twitpic.com/cm03ub
We serve Breakfast from 9 am The Program starts at 1000 http://www.twitpic.com/8oc8q7
#Mindspeak 2013 RICH TV http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtv.php
Africa's Perception Gap Still very Wide The Star http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX1305.pdf
#Africa's future is not seen in the rear view mirror,Aly-Khan Satchu beyondbrics FT http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/03/12/guest-post-africas-future-is-not-seen-in-the-rear-view-mirror/#axzz2THagvmZk
Macro Thoughts
BUY THE DOLLAR AND SELL GOLD
Home Thoughts
My Heart was as light as if I had been flying it, up there, on a string, as you fly a Kite. Page 199 Out of Africa
It was a Pleasure catching up with my oldest and Dearest Friend Alexander Michaelis yesterday http://www.twitpic.com/cr0ll1
It was at Alex's House in London where Prime Minister @David_Cameron told me that he had spent his gap year here in Kenya
25-MAR-2013 Ties that Bind UK and Kenya @UKinKenya http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX2503.pdf
Interestingly, Alex is refurbishing Kichwa Tembo in the Maasai Mara [and just under 30 Years ago we stayed there ourselves]
Among The Elephants #Maasai Mara #Video http://www.twitpic.com/87jfu1
Maasai Dance #Fairmont Mara #Kenya #Africa Video http://www.twitpic.com/84v8kh
The #Maasai Morans taught us to dance #Fairmont Mara #Kenya http://www.twitpic.com/84mu40
Life is tough for a Zebra #Mara #Fairmont #Kenya Twitpic http://www.twitpic.com/83xmob
I have so many Memories with Alex and since I was 13 Years old. When we were 17 We drove from London to the South of France in his Alfa Sud and in our version of On The Road.
What's your road, man? — holyboy road, madman road, rainbow road, guppy road, any road. It's an anywhere road for anybody anyhow. [On the Road]
The Road Robert Frank http://artblart.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/us-285-new-mexico-1955.jpg
In his introduction to The Americans, Kerouac describes this photograph as "a long shot of night road arrowing forlorn into immensities and flat of impossible-to-believe America in New Mexico under the prisoner's moon."
“As we crossed the Colorado-Utah border I saw God in the sky in the form of huge gold sunburning clouds above the desert that seemed to point a finger at me and say, "Pass here and go on, you're on the road to heaven.” ― Jack Kerouac, On the Road
There are few People in Your life that have known You from the beginning and whom You love unconditionally, other than Your immediate Family and Your Children.
Alex is one of those. |
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Russia Raises Stakes in Syria WSJ Law & Politics |
Russia has sent a dozen or more warships to patrol waters near its naval base in Syria, a buildup that U.S. and European officials see as a newly aggressive stance meant partly to warn the West and Israel not to intervene in Syria's bloody civil war.
Russia's expanded presence in the eastern Mediterranean, which began attracting U.S. officials' notice three months ago, represents one of its largest sustained naval deployments since the Cold War. While Western officials say they don't fear an impending conflict with Russia's aged fleet, the presence adds a new source of potential danger for miscalculation in an increasingly combustible region.
"It is a show of force. It's muscle flexing," a senior U.S. defense official said of the Russian deployments. "It is about demonstrating their commitment to their interests."
"There's no magic formula for dealing with an extraordinarily violent and difficult situation like Syria's," Mr. Obama said at a news conference in Washington with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "I do think that the prospect of talks in Geneva involving the Russians…may yield results."
Moscow's diplomacy notwithstanding, U.S. officials believe that in addition to the naval deployments, Russia is moving more quickly than previously thought to deliver S-300 surface-to-air defense systems to Syria.
U.S. officials say the S-300 system, which is capable of shooting down guided missiles and could make it more risky for any warplanes to enter Syrian airspace, could leave Russia for the port of Tartus by the end of May.
Russia sent newly advanced supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles to Syria and deployed a dozen or more warships to patrol waters near Syria, U.S. officials said.UPI http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2013/05/17/Russia-sends-missiles-to-Syria-warships-near-Syria/UPI-63171368770400/
The delivery of Yakhont, or the P-800 Oniks, missiles demonstrates the depth of Moscow's support for the regime of President Bashar Assad, U.S. officials told The New York Times.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu ended their three-hour meeting in Sochi Tuesday, May 14, at loggerheads on Syria say DEBKA http://www.debka.com/article/22970/Syrian-Israeli-war-of-words-via-Putin-edges-into-Syrian-Hizballah-war-of-attrition-
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu ended their three-hour meeting in Sochi Tuesday, May 14, at loggerheads on Syria. In fact, Putin warned his guest that Israel and its army, the IDF, were heading for war with Syria in which Russia might well be involved – and not just through the advanced S-300 anti-air missiles supplied to the Assad government. The case Netanyahu and Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi put before Putin and Russian foreign intelligence chief, SVR Director Mikhail Fradkov, fell on deaf ears.
They found the Russian leader further infuriated by the docking that day at Israel’s Red Sea port of Eilat of the USS Kearsarge, carrying 1,800 marines and a consignment of 20 V-22 Osprey helicopters which US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel had promised to supply to Israel during his April visit.
Putin viewed the stationing of US forces in the Gulf of Aqaba just two hours away the Israeli-Syrian border for repelling Syrian-Iranian-Hizballah aggression against Israel or Jordan – signaled by the Kearsage’s arrival - as an act of bad faith by Washington. On the one hand, they want us to cooperate for an international conference to end the bloodshed in Syria, while on the other, they deploy military forces, he complained to Netanyahu.
The conversation ended with the Russian leader fully confident that his capabilities for safeguarding Assad were greater than Israel’s ability to destroy him.
Conclusions
There is a lot of Hardware in a small Area.
Putin had to put up or shut up, however.
Russia Warship docked at Tartus http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/images/news/201212/n_36147_4.jpg |
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Samaras Tells China to See Greece as Europe’s Investment Gateway Bloomberg International Trade |
Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said China should use his country as a gateway to invest in Europe, pledging to give the “red carpet treatment” to foreign investors as Greece recovers from its economic crisis.
Samaras, speaking in Beijing during a five-day visit, said his country is “anchored to the euro zone,” and believes in a “new era” of cooperation. Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Jiang Yaoping said China will expand investment in the port of Piraeus and invest in infrastructure in the European Union.
“Greece in now anchored in the euro zone and this is unquestionable -- period,” Samaras said.
Samaras spoke three days after Fitch upgraded Greece and gave it a stable outlook, saying that “clear progress” had been made toward eliminating its fiscal and current-account deficits. The country’s Economic Adjustment Program is “on track,” Fitch said.
Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ http://j.mp/97tI8l
Euro 1.2865 touched 1.2843 on May 15, Dollar strongest since April 4. Dollar Index 83.97 Japan Yen 102.52 The yen touched 102.76 per dollar this week, the weakest since October 2008 Swiss Franc 0.9670 Pound 1.5241 Aussie 0.9744 touching 97.36, the lowest level since June 5. India Rupee 54.887 South Korea Won 1116.94 Brazil Real 2.0258 Egypt Pound 6.9701 South Africa Rand 9.3910 4+ Year Low
The dollar has risen 5 percent this year, the best performance among the 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen has lost 13 percent in the same period, the biggest loser, while the euro had gained 2.1 percent.
Conclusions
I am very bullish the Dollar.
Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 83.97 [I am looking for 88.00] http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 102.52 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Japan Becomes Most Favored Nation in Poll Showing Abe Optimism Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/japan-becomes-most-favored-nation-in-poll-showing-abe-optimism.html
Investors are more confident in a Japanese leader than any time since at least September 2010, with optimism about Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s policies exceeding that for counterparts in the U.S., Europe and China.
The number of respondents who are more optimistic than pessimistic on the impact of Abe’s plans on Japan’s investment climate rose to 66 percent this month from 54 percent in January, a worldwide poll of investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers showed. Japan offers one of the top two opportunities globally in the next year, according to 33 percent of respondents, up from 21 percent and beating China for the first time in surveys dating back to 2009.
“Abe bought time and succeeded in changing people’s minds” about Japan’s potential, said respondent Ai Sato, a stock trader at Nissay Asset Management in Tokyo. “We’re seeing the effects of this ‘sake’ through foreign investors increasing Japanese exposure,” she said, using a reference to traditional rice wine for the liquidity being injected by the Bank of Japan.
The optimism rating for Abe’s policies is higher than any leader ever tested, even Germany’s Angela Merkel, who has long been at the top on this question.
Sixty-three percent predicted the Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) will be higher six months from now, the highest share in polls dating to July 2009.
djfxtrader: #Japan Govt: March Machinery Order Amount Highest Since Oct 2008, Percentage Gain Largest on Record djfxtrader: #Japan March Core Machinery Orders +14.2% On Month; Expected +2.5%
Nikkei ^N225 1 Year Chart +73.74% Yahoo Finance http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=
Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.2865 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1 |
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Turkey Raised to Investment Grade by Moody’s on Debt Cuts Bloomberg Emerging Markets |
Turkey’s credit rating was raised to investment grade by Moody’s Investors Services Inc. for the first time in two decades as the government reduced its debt and current-account deficits. The lira pared losses.
Moody’s said in a statement yesterday that it lifted Turkey’s government bond ratings by one step to Baa3, the lowest investment grade, from Ba1. The move puts Turkey’s credit rating at the same level as Spain, Colombia and India. The outlook was set at stable.
Frontier Markets |
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Sudanese foreign minister to visit Juba on Friday Reuters Africa |
Karti will visit Juba with intelligence chief Mohamed Atta to deliver a letter regarding bilateral relations from President Omar Hassan al-Bashir to South Sudan's Salva Kiir, state news agency SUNA said.
Conclusions
The Trend is your Friend and The Trend is one of increasing Rapprochement.
The #river #Nile seen from #juba #Sudan Twitpic http://www.twitpic.com/rlbpe
Nigeria sent fighter jets in support of troops fighting increasingly powerful Islamist insurgents in its northeast on Thursday Reuters http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/16/us-nigeria-violence-idUSBRE94F0M320130516
Air Force spokesman Air Commodore Yusuf Anas confirmed to Reuters by telephone that "air assets", including helicopter gunships as well as jets, had been sent in support of the extra troops being deployed for the operation.
He declined to give any further details. A military source said the planes would bomb Islamist bases and training camps.
Telephone connections to Borno and Yobe were almost completely cut on Thursday. In Adawama, where a curfew was declared from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. -- the other two states were already under curfew -- some cautiously welcomed the offensive. The three are among Nigeria's poorest and most remote states, near border areas with Chad, Cameroon and Niger.
"All you're doing is giving the military more powers than they had, but they were already far exceeding the powers ... and violating human rights massively," Lucy Freeman, Amnesty International's deputy program director, told Reuters by phone.
Human Rights Watch Nigeria researcher Eric Guttschuss said: "If the military continues its practice of targeting civilians, there is a risk of massive abuses during this offensive ... the military's tactics have helped fuel the spiraling violence."
DaMina Advisors Frontier Markets Note Nigeria’s sovereign stability at risk as security challenges and sectarian clashes threatens economic growth, FDI and capital inflows http://www.rich.co.ke/rcfrbs/docs/DaMina%20Nigeria%20State%20of%20Emergency.pdf
Africa’s rising food imports FT Subscriber http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/05/16/africas-rising-food-imports/#axzz2THagvmZk
A rising middle class, expanding population and stagnant local agricultural production are driving up Africa’s food imports. Bad luck is partly to blame. Weather-related damage has hit rice crops in Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Niger and Madagascar. Foot and mouth disease has hurt Egypt’s bovine sector, and cassava – one of Africa’s major offerings to world agricultural trade – is being felled by a fast-spreading virus.
But policy volatility is also at fault. Nigeria – Africa’s largest rice importer – announced a hike in import taxes last year which prompted a sudden rise in purchases. And across Africa, weak infrastructure hinders agri-markets.
Rising imports are also a consequence of wealth and one of its quickest effects: a taste for protein. Poultry imports were up about 12 per cent last year, driven by higher incomes in the likes Angola, Benin, Ghana and the Republic of the Congo.
“Africa is growing at a base of 5 to 6 per cent a year, which translates into a growing middle class with an increase of consumption,” says Jean-Louis Ekra, president of the African Export-Import Bank in Cairo.
A raft of public initiatives including Grow Africa and the Kofi Annan-chaired Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa are drawing attention to agricultural productivity, which has fallen over the past three decades. Africa lost its status as a net exporter of agricultural products in the early 1980s when prices of raw commodities fell and local production stagnated. Since then, agricultural imports have grown consistently faster than exports and by 2007 reached a high of $47bn, yielding a deficit of $22bn. The value of agricultural exports from Thailand, which has less than 10 per cent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population, is now greater than for the whole of Sub-Saharan Africa.
No country better exemplifies Africa’s agricultural decline than Nigeria. In the 1960s, before the oil bonanza, it was one of the world’s most promising food producers, beating the likes of Malaysia and Indonesia in palm oil, and the US and Argentina in groundnuts. It provided 18 per cent of global cocoa production, a figure down to 8 per cent today. And while it produces 65 per cent of tomatoes in western central Africa, it is now the largest importer of tomato paste (from China and Italy).
In an interview with This is Africa at the World Economic Forum in Cape Town last week, Akinwumi Adesina, Nigeria’s agriculture minister, reeled off these statistics with regret.
While Nigeria is second in the world in citrus production and Africa’s biggest pineapple producer, its supermarkets are stocked with concentrated, imported versions of both. “The only local content is water from Nigeria,” the minister complains.
Multinationals testify to the challenges of agricultural import-dependence in their local operations. “We have 13 factories in Africa that use products like soft oils, tomatoes or starch-based compounds on a daily basis, but much of this is imported, wasting foreign exchange and increasing our carbon footprint,” says Marc Engel, chief procurement officer at Unilever. The company owns the largest soap factory in Africa, but has to import palm oil from Asia to keep it running; and it imports sorbitol from China for its local oral care products, when cassava would do the job.
To an optimist, of course, import-dependence spells opportunity. Firstly, structural imbalances are often a symptom of fast growth. China’s annual agricultural consumption has overtaken production, too. For companies and investors, Africa’s status as an importer signals strong domestic demand which could be met through investment in domestic agribusiness and food retail.
Zimbabwe Wants to Distribute Diamonds to China, Dubai, Israel Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/zimbabwe-wants-to-distribute-diamonds-to-china-dubai-israel.html
Zimbabwe is trying to reach an agreement to distribute its stones directly to China, Dubai and Israel without violating rules against the sale of gems from the Marange fields, Chris Mutsvangwa, chairman of the state-owned Mineral Marketing Corporation Ltd., said.
The U.S. may also get involved in discussions, Mutsvangwa said on the sidelines of a Chamber of Mines annual meeting in Nyanga today. The proposal wouldn’t violate rules because Zimbabwe outside of Marange was certified compliant in 2010.
Zimbabwe, which produced 8 million carats of diamonds in 2012 worth $865 million, is the world’s seventh largest diamond producer. Its output this year is estimated at 16 million carats, according to Mines Minister Obert Mpofu.
Diamond mining in Zimbabwe was mostly confined to central and southern parts of the country and expanded to the eastern district of Marange after the discovery of alluvial diamonds, boosting production since 2006.
Diamonds from Marange can’t be exported legally from Zimbabwe because the field hasn’t yet met an international certification standard showing that proceeds from sales aren’t used to finance conflict.
Dollar versus Rand 1 Year Chart INO 9.38532 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9701 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Sierra Leone Recovery Sends Yields to Record Low Level Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-17/sierra-leone-recovery-sends-yields-to-record-low-level.html
Sierra Leone, the African nation rebuilding its economy a decade after the end of a civil war, is benefiting from slower inflation and a stable currency as borrowing costs tumble and growth accelerates.
Yields on 91-day notes fell 128 basis points, or 1.28 percentage point, to a record 6.42 percent at the last central bank auction May 9, 134 basis points higher than South African yields and down from 19.1 percent in December after the central bank cut interest rates. The Finance Ministry forecasts growth in the $3 billion economy of 15.1 percent in 2013 after last year’s 21.3 percent, which was bolstered by the start of iron-ore exports and construction including the expansion of the airport serving Freetown, the capital.
The amount of bills sold by the Bank of Sierra Leone in the first quarter dropped 18 percent from the previous three months to 489 billion leones, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Debt rose as government spending climbed on borrowing to spend on infrastructure projects including roads and power output.
Debt to gross domestic product will slow to 40 percent this year from 44 percent in 2012 after climbing as high as 162 percent in 2003, according to IMF estimates and data.
The government wants to cut debt by at least 50 percent in 2013, Joseph Thullah, an economist in the ministry’s public debt management department, said in an interview May 7. Any financing shortfalls will be made up by seeking donor funds, he said.
The Bank of Sierra Leone lowered its key lending rate by 300 basis points to 17 percent on April 11, saying concern about inflation pressure from prices for imported food and fuel “may be cushioned by the relative stability in the exchange rate.”
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IMF says Kenya well placed for debut Eurobond in Q4 2013 Business Daily Kenyan Economy |
Ragnar Gudmundsson, IMF resident representative in Kenya, told Reuters a peaceful presidential vote in March has helped restore Kenya's image after post-election violence five years ago and would also help secure a lower yield on the new issue.
"The conditions would be right to negotiate a sovereign bond in the last quarter of the year."
Kenya will use proceeds from the sale to retire a $600 million syndicated loan taken out last year at an overall cost of 7 per cent and to fund infrastructure projects. Rwanda, a smaller economy, paid a yield of 6.875 per cent on its bond.
Mr Gudmundsson said 10 years would be a "reasonable tenor" and the government could seek up to $1 billion, an amount that would keep the government's borrowing on debt markets within a limit agreed under the IMF's extended credit facility programme.
Mr Gudmundsson said the country, which discovered oil in the far north county of Turkana last year, could attain the double-digit growth that the government has been targeting if it properly manages wealth from those natural resources.
"If these deposits are commercially viable and they are managed well, double-digit growth becomes a more realistic prospect," the representative said, although he said production could still be five years away.
Mr. Gudmundsson at the BAT Lunch http://www.twitpic.com/cn3j2h
Kenya Commercial Bank has launched a fully-furnished five-star luxury marina at the coast Nation http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/KCB-unveils-Sh5bn-hotel-for-tourists/-/1006/1854650/-/lowrwf/-/index.html
The Englishpoint Marina, set on a four-acre piece of land in Mkomani, Nyali overlooking Fort Jesus, will be completed in November and bookings for the 96 three-bedroom apartments at the facility are currently ranging between 30 and 35 per cent.
The Sh4.8 billion project was fully funded by Kenya Commercial Bank, according to the bank’s group chief executive officer Joshua Oigara.
“We are aware that the backbone for East Africa’s economy is the investment in strategic sectors such as tourism. The sheer magnitude of this five-star investment is an indicator that KCB group has the capacity to finance huge projects,” said Mr Oigara during the unveiling ceremony attended by among others Vision 2030 Director General Mugo Kibati.
The marina is a complex with four-story blocks consisting of 96 three-bedroom lifestyle apartments and eight five-bedroom penthouses designed in such a manner that all rooms have a sea view.
There will also be a 26-room hotel, spa, gym, a five star international marina accommodating 88 boats, water sports centre and restaurants.
#Africa Past Present and #Future Sculpture at English Point Marina #Mombasa Twitpic http://www.twitpic.com/bqdoko
The View of Mombasa Island seen from The Show Apartment English Point http://www.twitpic.com/bqdcok
Kenya Commercial Bank share price data here +37.815% 2013 http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D
Par Value: 1/- Closing Price: 41.00 Total Shares Issued: 2950170000.00 Market Capitalization: 120,956,970,000 EPS: 4.11 PE: 9.976
An Interview with @JoshuaOigara CEO @KCBGroup http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtvi.php
Protesting pigs march against Kenyan MP's greed YouTube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5f5YpDpy90
Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros http://j.mp/5jDOot
Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +33.375% in 2013 http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +19.888% in 2013 http://j.mp/ajuMHJ
Every Listed Share can be interrogated here http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php |
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