30th April 2017
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 28th of April 2017
 
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Africa

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Looking forward to #Mindspeak tomorrow with Barclays Kenya CEO Jeremy Awori

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Sir James Cochran Stevenson Runciman, CH, FBA (7 July 1903 - 1 November 2000), known as Steven Runciman
Africa


Sir James Cochran Stevenson Runciman, CH, FBA (7 July 1903 – 1
November 2000), known as Steven Runciman, was an English historian
best known for his three-volume A History of the Crusades (1951–54).

It is said that he was reading Latin and Greek by the age of five. In
the course of his long life he would master an astonishing number of
languages, so that, for example, when writing about the Middle East,
he relied not only on accounts in Latin and Greek and the Western
vernaculars, but consulted Arabic, Turkish, Persian, Hebrew, Syriac,
Armenian and Georgian sources as well.[4][5] A King's Scholar at Eton
College, he was an exact contemporary and close friend of George
Orwell.[3] While there, they both studied French under Aldous Huxley.

In his personal life, Runciman was an old-fashioned English eccentric,
known, among other things, as an aesthete, raconteur, and enthusiast
of the occult. According to Andrew Robinson, a history teacher at
Eton, "he played piano duets with the last Emperor of China, told
tarot cards for King Fuad of Egypt, narrowly missed being blown up by
the Germans in the Pera Palace hotel in Istanbul and twice hit the
jackpot on slot machines in Las Vegas".

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Raila Odinga NASA Flag Bearer via The Star
Law & Politics


Conclusions

The Strategy is around snaffling up a big chunk of the Kalenjin vote.

read more


Donald Trump warns 'major, major conflict' with North Korea is 'absolutely' possible Independent
Law & Politics


Donald Trump has warned about a "major, major conflict" between the US
and North Korea, saying a catastrophic confrontation with the isolated
state was "absolutely" possible.

In an interview ahead of his 100th day in office, the President said
he was committed to resolving the diplomatic crisis peacefully.

But he added: “There is a chance that we could end up having a major,
major conflict with North Korea. Absolutely.”

He also lavished praise on Chinese President Xi Jinping for Chinese
assistance in trying to rein in North Korea, saying he was a “very
good man” who he had got to know “very well”.

"I believe he is trying very hard. He certainly doesn’t want to see
turmoil and death. He doesn’t want to see it,” Mr Trump said.

Asked if he considered North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to be rational,
the Republican billionaire said: "He's 27 years old. His father dies,
took over a regime. So say what you want but that is not easy,
especially at that age.

Conclusions


Look he might really be enjoying himself. This is Reality TV turned real.

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18-APR-2017 :: we are dealing with two principals whose very raison d'etre appears to be escalation.
Law & Politics


The piece de resistance in a geopolitical context last week was the
news that the US’ policy of ‘’strategic patience’’ with North Korea
was over and an Armada [“We are sending an armada, very powerful. We
have submarines, very powerful, far more powerful than the aircraft
carrier.” President Trump] is now parked off the Korean Peninsula.

Machiavelli argued that sometimes it is “a very wise thing to simulate
madness” (Discourses on Livy).  The madman theory was a feature of
Richard Nixon’s foreign policy. Other than both having tiny little
hands and both possessing nuclear weapons, we are dealing with two
principals whose very raison d’être appears to be escalation.

“If the U.S. provokes recklessly, the revolutionary forces will take
an annihilating strike,” Choe Ryong Hae, a senior regime official,
said. North Korea is ready for a nuclear or full-scale war if the U.S.
wants it, he added. Saddam Hussein who was prone to a similar
hyperbole did not possess a nuclear weapon.  This is the difference.
Furthermore, it is impossible to model how ‘’Little’’ Kim is going to
react to what he must perceive as an existential threat to him and his
Regime.

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Tillerson Said to Seek 9% Cut to U.S. State Department Workforce
Law & Politics


The State Department plans to cut 2,300 U.S. diplomats and civil
servants -- about 9 percent of the Americans in its workforce
worldwide -- as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson presses ahead with
his task of slashing the agency’s budget, according to people familiar
with the matter.

The majority of the job cuts, about 1,700, will come through
attrition, while the remaining 600 will be done via buyouts, according
to the people, who asked not to be identified because the decision
hasn’t been publicly announced. William Inglee, a former Lockheed
Martin Corp. official and policy adviser in Congress, was hired to
help oversee the budget cuts and briefed senior managers on the plan
Wednesday, the people said.

Just cutting without deciding what change you want to make is simply
mindless,” said Stephen Sestanovich, a professor at Columbia
University’s School of International and Public Affairs who served as
U.S. ambassador-at-large for the former Soviet Union.

“A new administration is right to look at what Cabinet departments do,
but does it want the United States to do less in the world — and if
so, exactly what?” he added. “Those are the questions that need to be
answered before you make big cuts at State.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0895
Dollar Index 99.10
Japan Yen 111.32
Swiss Franc 0.9940
Pound 1.2925
Aussie 0.7477
India Rupee 64.185
South Korea Won 1136.70
Brazil Real 3.1823
Egypt Pound 18.0530
South Africa Rand 13.30

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The pound rose to its highest level since October versus the dollar 1.2947 [1.30 looks a shoe-in]
World Currencies


Sterling advanced for a third straight day to test the psychologically
significant 1.2900 level against the U.S. currency. Demand from
interbank investors triggered stops above 1.2905, according to a
trader in Europe who asked not to be identified as the person isn’t
authorized to speak publicly. The currency has advanced almost 3
percent since Prime Minister Theresa May announced snap elections
earlier this month.

“It’s a general dollar move because of disappointment about President
Trump’s tax plans,” said Stuart Bennett, a G-10 currency strategist at
Banco Santander SA in London. “Equally, it’s still against a
background that the pound is very cheap. There is probably more of a
bias when the dollar weakens and everybody moves against the dollar
and the pound can maybe outperform.”

GBP/USD climbs 0.5% to 1.2909, having earlier reached 1.2917, its
highest level since Oct. 3.

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24-APR-2017 :: The pound had found an off-ramp, and rallied from just above 1.2500 to the dollar to as high as 1.2900 [momentarily]
World Currencies


The pound had found an off-ramp, and rallied from just above 1.2500 to
the dollar to as high as 1.2900 [momentarily] and closed out the week
at 1.2805. I recalled a meeting in Nairobi where I had been laying out
a bull case for the pound [I see an eventual return to 1.40 versus the
dollar which equates to 144.20 versus the shilling] and the gentleman
in question had painted a dystopian future and talked of sub-parity
versus the dollar.

So allow me to start with the pound. Last week’s price action was an
important signal. I see May winning this snap general election by a
mile like Shergar did when he won the Epsom Derby. Respectfully,
Jeremy Corbyn strikes me as a Neil Kinnock figure, and she is going to
parlay her party’s 20-plus- point lead over Labour into a huge
majority. Political Risk is not going away, but it’s not going to be
about May not having a mandate.  That will mark a big shift.  There is
a sizeable short position in the pound.  ere were a lot of naysayers
out there, smelling a good old-fashioned sterling crisis in the air
like the fellow I met in Nairobi.  These short sellers are going to be
well and truly burned, in my opinion.

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Curious Curse of May: Emerging-Market Currency Bulls Beware
Emerging Markets


Blame dividend payments, weddings in India, or simply plain
profit-taking. Developing-nation currencies could be in for a rough
month in May, if history is any guide.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has fallen in May in the six
of the past seven years, a seasonal quirk that’s prompted Citigroup
Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG to warn investors that the gauge’s
five-month winning streak may be coming to an end.

Frontier Markets

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Africa's house of cards Ethiopia enters its seventh month of emergency rule Economist
Africa


THE three-hour bus-ride to Ambo from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital,
offers a glimpse into the country’s future. The road is well paved;
irrigation ditches and polytunnels criss-cross commercial farmland;
electricity lines leap over forested hills. The signal granting access
to mobile internet is clear and constant. As the bus pulls into Ambo,
a trading centre in Oromia, the largest and most populous of
Ethiopia’s nine ethnically based regions, the street is bustling.

But there are signs, too, that not all is well. An army truck rolls
down the main road. Federal police surround the entrance to the local
university. Unemployed young men playing snooker in bar point at a
building across the road: it used to be a bank, but it was burnt down.
Three years ago 17 local boys were shot dead by security guards as
they protested on the doorstep, the young men say.

Alexis de Tocqueville, a 19th-century French historian, argued that
the most dangerous time for a bad government is when it begins to
reform itself. The EPRDF is not the ancien regime of pre-revolutionary
France. But it has taken de Tocqueville’s lesson to heart. It views
Ethiopia as a house of cards that might easily topple. So the old
model persists: development now, democracy later.

Conclusions

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17 OCT 16 :: Ethiopia's Reputation Shattered by Political Tensions @TheStarKenya
Africa


THe government need to change tack and effect a course correction and
history shows us that this course correction is one of the most
difficult things to pull off.

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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.0530
Africa


Nigeria's central bank to make available $20,000 to each of the
country's 3,150 registered forex bureaus on Thursday at a rate of 360
naira per dollar

Nigeria's central bank is expected to make available $20,000 to each
of the country's 3,150 registered forex bureaus on Thursday at a rate
of 360 naira per dollar in order to boost liquidity, the head of the
bureau de change association said.

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Kenya's opposition alliance picks Odinga as presidential candidate
Kenyan Economy


Kenya's main opposition alliance said on Thursday it had chosen
veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga as its candidate for a
presidential election scheduled for August 8.

Odinga, 72, will face off against President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is
running for a second and final five-year term. The two men were the
main contenders in the last election in 2013.

read more


Kenyan Economy


Conclusions


The Question is will the One Time promise keep all Principals locked in?

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WPP-ScanGroup reports FY 16 EPS 1.12 unch Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           19.00
Total Shares Issued:          378865102.00
Market Capitalization:        7,198,436,938
EPS:             1.12
PE:                 16.964

The largest marketing services company in East Africa.

FY Billings 16.306447b vs. 16.791084b -2.886%
FY Revenue 4.835073b vs. 5.022408b -3.730%
FY Operating and administrative expenses [4.475205b] vs. [4.669817b] -4.167%
FY Operating profit 359.868m vs. 352.591m +2.064%
FY Net interest income 406.528m vs. 436.098m -6.781%
FY Foreign exchange [Loss/ gain [63.159m] vs. 47.213m -233.775%
FY Profit before tax 725.925m vs. 875.271m -17.063%
FY Profit for the year 460.380m vs. 478.672m -3.821%
Basic and diluted EPS 1.12 vs. 1.12 –
Total Assets 13.486398b vs. 12.468479b +8.164%
Total Equity 8.803639b vs. 8.604260b +2.317%
Cash & cash equivalents at the end of the year 3.909484b vs. 4.062212b -3.760%
Dividends per share 0.50 vs. 0.50 –

Directors Note


The Group faced a tough trading environment during 2016 in Kenya, its
largest market, however this was offset by good growth in markets
outside of Kenya.
Group revenue declined by 3.7%
Kenya accounted for 60% [2015:66%] of the total.
Gabon Ghana Nigeria and Zambia were particularly pleasing

Conclusions


Fair Value. Its good a good geographical spread and with WPP on the
register it looks good value here.

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Flame Tree Group reports FY16 EPS -18.182% earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           5.00
Total Shares Issued:          161866804.00
Market Capitalization:        809,334,020
EPS:            0.90
PE:              5.55

FY Revenue 2.544628524b vs. 2.283151865b +11.452%
FY Cost of sales [1.640312183b] vs. [1.476312127b] +11.109%
FY Gross profit 904.316341m vs. 806.839738m +12.081%
FY Other operating income 5.412643m vs. 1.501921m +260.381%
FY Selling and distribution costs [329.112443m] vs. [260.515766m] +26.331%
FY Administrative expenses [297.491883m] vs. [244.278863m] +21.784%
FY Other operating expenses [45.267509m] vs. [44.531016m] +1.654%
FY Operating profit before gain on disposal of Property, Plant and
Equipment 237.857149m vs. 259.016014m -8.169%
FY Gain on disposal on PPE 0.837365m vs. 2.086323m -59.864%
FY Operating profit before after gain on disposal of PPE
238.694514m vs. 261.102337m -8.582%
FY Profit before tax 175.974893m vs. 198.387446m -11.297%
FY Profit for the year 144.980485m vs. 178.848086m -18.937%
EPS 0.90 vs. 1.10 -18.182%
Total Assets 1.521194765b vs. 1.326531265b +14.675%
Shareholders’ Funds 719.166802m vs. 581.921879m +23.585%
Cash and cash equivalents at 31st December [101.713064m] vs.
13.684023m -843.298%
Bonus Share Issue 1:10

Company Commentary


FTG ''the diversified manufacturer and distributor of plastic tanks,
cosmetics and snacks''
Annual Net Sales for FY16 2.5B +11.5%
A +22.3% Increase in operating costs to 671.8m
one-off impact from Suzie Beauty retail chain expansion as well as new
Mozambique factory expenses in that period.
Company has also decided to make a significant provision against
receivables from supermarkets inn Kenya that have been extremely slow
to pay.
1for10 bonus issue

Conclusions

Its a cheap share operating in an interesting niche.

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Home Afrika reports FY 16 EPS Loss of 39cents a share Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           0.80
Total Shares Issued:          405255320.00
Market Capitalization:        324,204,256
EPS:             -0.39
PE:

FY Revenue 222.187m vs. 259.773m -14.469%
FY Cost of sales [160.278m] vs. [233.493m] -31.356%
FY Gross profit 61.909m vs. 26.280m +135.575%
FY Other operating income 13.183m vs. 18.931m -30.363%
FY Operating expenses [152.143m] vs. [349.906m] -56.519%
FY Operating [Loss] [85.697m] vs. [278.079m] -69.182%
FY Finance costs [121.320m] vs. [132.720m] -8.597%
FY Loss before tax [207.007m] vs. [410.799m] -49.609%
FY [Loss] for the year [168.458m] vs. [390.091m] -56.816%
[Loss] per share – basic and diluted [0.39] vs. [0.91] -57.143%
Total Assets 3.930011b vs. 3.862316b +1.753%
Total Equity [210.167m] vs. [41.709m] +403.889%
[Decrease] in cash and cash equivalents [36.505m] vs. [264.376m] -86.192%

Conclusions

Their Assets are worth 3.93b their market is 324.204m.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.26
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

133.24 +0.11 +0.08%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.69% 2017

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,164.36 +1.99 +0.06%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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