1st September 2014
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 29th of August 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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I thank Laura Kyle @AJInsideStory for taking my Thoughts yesterday re : Ebola @AJInsideStory
Law & Politics


Ebola response: Self preservation? Inside Story

Travel and trade restrictions isolate West African nations as death
toll passes 1,500.

West African economies are feeling the impact of the world's worst
outbreak of Ebola.

It's six months since the disease was diagnosed in Guinea. It has
since spread to Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria.

The World Health Organization says more than half of identified cases
have proved fatal, and it's warning that the death toll could
eventually exceed 20,000.

But criticism is growing over the global response.

The medical charity Doctors Without Borders, says international
efforts have been: "...chaotic and entirely inadequate to the scale of
the crisis."

A statement said: "Self-protection is occupying the entire focus of
states that have the expertise and resources to make a dramatic
difference."

Travel and trade restrictions are now taking a toll on the econonies
of the affected countries.

President of the African Development Bank, Donald Kaberuka, said:
"Foreign exchange levels are down, markets are not functioning,
airlines are not coming in, projects have been cancelled, business
people have left. That is very, very damaging.

Add to that, the rainy season, people are not farming, the price of
produce is going up, at a time when purchasing power is limited, so
you're increasing poverty."

It is a huge problem for West Africa. But is it a global responsibility?

Presenter: Laura Kyle

Guests:


Aly-Khan Satchu - an independent trader and analyst, and African
economy specialist.

Micaela Serafini - medical director for Doctors Without Borders.

Katie Mark - a filmmaker and journalist who has just returned from
covering the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone.

read more



Morning from the @NorfolkFairmont wishing you all a fabulous Friday
Africa


It was a pleasure attending the CIO EAST AFRICA ‏@CIOEastAfrica
Samsung sponsored Breakfast this morning at the Fairmont Norfolk

read more





Interview with Charles Ireland CEO EAVL RICH TV @YouTube
Africa


See You tomorrow at #Mindspeak with @Dennis_Makori the CEO @OnfonMediaLtd

It was a Pleasure meeting the Dominic Barton The Global Managing
Director of McKinsey and Company, yesterday.

read more



#Mindspeak 2014 RICH TV
Africa


In 2014, #Mindspeak has hosted Christine @Lagarde @IMFNews, Dr. Titus
Naikuni @KenyaAirways, Charles Ireland EABL @TuskerLager, EAC SG Dr.
@rsezibera, Munir Ahmed National Bank Joshua Oigara @KCBGroup.

read more



You see in the old days, these conditions would have created a flight into the dollar. And interestingly the dollar has been punching higher. If things tip big, the dollar might soar. 25-AUG-2014
Africa


Home Thoughts

“I crave your mouth, your voice, your hair.
Silent and starving, I prowl through the streets.
Bread does not nourish me, dawn disrupts me, all day
I hunt for the liquid measure of your steps.

I hunger for your sleek laugh,
your hands the color of a savage harvest,
hunger for the pale stones of your fingernails,
I want to eat your skin like a whole almond.

I want to eat the sunbeam flaring in your lovely body,
the sovereign nose of your arrogant face,
I want to eat the fleeting shade of your lashes,

and I pace around hungry, sniffing the twilight,
hunting for you, for your hot heart,
Like a puma in the barrens of Quitratue.”
― Pablo Neruda

Almost as powerful as this

''Bin Ich so in Lieb mit dich als hat ich deine Blut getrunken''

which means

I am so in Love with you its like I have drunk your Blood.

read more


Barack Obama has accused Russia of sending troops into Ukraine
Law & Politics


"Russia has deliberately and repeatedly violated the sovereignty and
territorial integrity of Ukraine and the new images of Russian forces
inside Ukraine make that plain for the world to see. This comes as
Ukrainian forces are making progress against the separatists."

Lavrov Via Email


(BN) *LAVROV SAYS EARLIER PHOTOS OF TROOPS WERE FROM COMPUTER GA
BN 08/29 09:20 *LAVROV, ZARIF NEWS CONFERENCE ENDS IN MOSCOW
BN 08/29 09:19 *RUSSIA SENT NEW DIPLOMATIC NOTE TO UKRAINE YESTERDAY: LAVROV
BN 08/29 09:19 *LAVROV: UKRAINE ANSWERED NOTE, GENERALLY AGREED TO CONVOY
BFW 08/29 09:18 *LAVROV SAYS RUSSIA TO ENSURE SECURITY FOR 2ND CONVOY
BFW 08/29 09:17 *LAVROV SAYS NOTE DELIVERED TO UKRAINE 5 DAYS AGO ON 2ND CONVOY
BFW 08/29 09:17 *LAVROV SAYS RUSSIA TO AGREE CONVOY TERMS WITH UKRAINE
BFW 08/29 09:10 *LAVROV: IF UKRAINE KEEPS SAME LOGIC, NOTHING GOOD TO COME
BFW 08/29 09:09 *REBELS PUSHING BACK GOVT FORCES TO PROTECT CIVILIANS: LAVROV
BFW 08/29 09:08 *LAVROV: ACCUSATIONS BECAUSE REBLS PUSHING BACK UKRAINE TROOPS
 BN 08/29 09:06 *LAVROV REITERATES RUSSIA SEEKS CLARIFICATION ON BOEING CRASH
BFW 08/29 09:05 *LAVROV: RUSSIA KEEPS ASKING U.S., WEST TO PROVIDE EVIDENCE
BFW 08/29 09:04 *LAVROV SAYS NO EVIDENCE OF TROOPS IN UKRAINE PROVIDED
BFW 08/29 09:03 *LAVROV SAYS NATO ACCUSATIONS AREN'T MADE FOR FIRST TIME
 BN 08/29 09:00 *IRAN 6+1 TALKS GOING THANKS TO RUSSIA'S POSITION: LAVROV
BFW 08/29 08:57 *SANCTIONS DIDNT SLOW DOWN IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM: ZARIF
 BN 08/29 08:57 *IRAN'S ZARIF SAYS SANCTIONS ILLEGAL, NEVER HELP REACH GOALS
 BN 08/29 08:50 *IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER ZARIF SPEAKING IN MOSCOW
 BN 08/29 08:50 *ZARIF SAYS IRAQ EXTREMISTS CAN BRING VIOLENCE TO EUROPE, U.S.
BFW 08/29 08:46 *RUSSIA’S LAVROV SAYS IRAN HAS RIGHT TO CIVILIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
 BN 08/29 08:45 *RUSSIA'S LAVROV SAYS IRAN HAS RIGHT TO CIVILIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
BFW 08/29 08:45 *LAVROV: RUSSIA WANTS RESPECT FOR IRAN RIGHT TO ENRICH URANIUM
 BN 08/29 08:45 *LAVROV: RUSSIA WANTS RESPECT FOR IRAN RIGHT TO ENRICH URANIUM
BFW 08/29 08:43 *RUSSIA WANTS IRAN TO BE PART OF SYRIA PEACE PROCESS: LAVROV
BFW 08/29 08:42 *LAVROV, ZARIF DISCUSSED SYRIAN CRISIS, NEED TO STOP VIOLENCE
 BN 08/29 08:41 *RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV SPEAKS TO REPORTERS IN MOSCOW
BFW 08/29 08:41 *RUSSIA’S LAVROV SAYS HAD GOOD TALKS WITH IRAN’S ZARIF
 BN 08/29 08:41 *RUSSIA'S LAVROV SAYS HAD GOOD TALKS WITH IRAN'S ZARIF

Russian soldiers near the border with Ukraine. Photograph:
Alexander Demianchuk/REUTERS

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/29/obama-russia-troops-ukraine

Shelling is continuing in the city of Donetsk, hitting buildings
including this school

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28967526

@Reuters BREAKING NEWS @UN human rights official #Kiev says current
total death toll in Ukraine fighting is 2,593

http://www.reuters.com

read more



The US is still holding a stick behind its back. Washington could use its intervention in Iraq to open a gateway for intervention against Syria as a means of shifting the balance of power against the Syrian government.
Law & Politics


Washington is now talking about intervening in Syria to bomb the same
troublesome groups that it is supposedly fighting in Iraq. Pentagon
military honcho, General Martin Dempsey, has stated that the
ISIL/DAISH “cannot be defeated unless the United States or its
partners take on the Sunni militants in Syria” on August 21, 2014.
Speaking about the Pentagon strikes in Iraq, General Dempsey stated:
“Can they be defeated without addressing that part of the organization
that resides in Syria? The answer is no.”

read more


Ebola Cases May Surpass 20,000, WHO Says in Updated Plan
Law & Politics


More than 20,000 people may be infected with the Ebola virus before
the outbreak in West Africa is controlled, the World Health
Organization said as it sought $490 million in funding.

The number of people falling ill is accelerating, with more than 40
percent of the infections happening in the past 21 days, the
Geneva-based United Nations agency said in an e-mailed statement
today. In some areas, the number of cases may be two to four times
higher than reported, the WHO said in a separate document, a so-called
road map that lays out the plan to deal with the situation.

“The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak continues to evolve in alarming
ways,” the WHO said in the road map released today. Liberia, Guinea
and Sierra Leone are “struggling to control the escalating outbreak
against a backdrop of severely compromised health systems, significant
deficits in capacity and rampant fear.”

The virus has infected more than 3,000 people, making it the biggest
outbreak ever, and has killed more than 1,550. It’s on a pace to cause
more deaths than all previous outbreaks combined.

The WHO’s cost estimate is up from $430 million in a draft of the road
map reported by Bloomberg News this week.

Cases also have been reported in Nigeria. The death toll there has
risen to six after a doctor who died in the southern oil city of Port
Harcourt tested positive posthumously, Health Minister Onyebuchi
Chukwu says in e-mailed statement.

read more


@WHO Verified account @Twitter
Law & Politics


WHO @WHO  WHO roadmap aims to stop #Ebola transmission worldwide
within 6–9 months, while rapidly managing consequences of any further
intl spread
WHO @WHO  WHO issues today a roadmap to guide and coordinate the
international response to the #Ebola outbreak in West Africa
http://goo.gl/l8qWVB
WHO @WHO  At this time, the #Ebola outbreak in #DRC is believed to be
unrelated to the ongoing outbreak in West Africa http://goo.gl/dGVL69
WHO @WHO  The index case & 80 contacts in #DRC hv no history of travel
to #Ebola affected areas in W Africa or contact w individuals from
those areas
WHO @WHO  Human-to-human transmission including healthcare personnel
exposed to the deceased pregnant woman was established during surgery
#Ebola #DRC
WHO @WHO  Between 28 July and 18 August a total of 24 suspected cases
of haemorrhagic fever with 13 deaths have been identified in #DRC
WHO @WHO  The #Ebola index case in #DRC was a pregnant woman who
butchered a bush animal killed & given to her by her husband
http://goo.gl/dGVL69
WHO @WHO  On 26 August the Ministry of Health of the #DRC notified the
WHO of an #Ebola outbreak in Equateur Province http://goo.gl/dGVL69

read more


Gene studies of Ebola in Sierra Leone show virus is mutating fast
Law & Politics


CHICAGO, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Genetic studies of some of the earliest
Ebola cases in Sierra Leone reveal more than 300 genetic changes in
the virus as it leapt from person to person, changes that could blunt
the effectiveness of diagnostic tests and experimental treatments now
in development, researchers said on Thursday.

"We found the virus is doing what viruses do. It's mutating," said
Pardis Sabeti of Harvard University and the Broad Institute, who led
the massive study of samples from 78 people in Sierra Leone, all of
whose infections could be traced to a faith healer whose claims of a
cure attracted Ebola patients from Guinea, where the virus first took
hold.

Study coauthor Robert Garry of Tulane University said the virus is
mutating at twice the rate in people as it was in animal hosts, such
as fruit bats.

Garry said the study has shown changes in the glycoprotein, the
surface protein that binds the virus to human cells, allowing it to
start replicating in its human host. "It's also what your immune
system will recognize," he said.

The team had been doing surveillance for two months when the first
case of Ebola arrived from Guinea on May 25. That case involved a
"sowei" or tribal healer, whose claim of a cure lured sick Ebola
victims from nearby Guinea.

"When she contracted Ebola and died, there were a lot of people who
came to her funeral," Garry said. One of these was a young pregnant
woman who became infected and traveled to Kenema Government Hospital,
where she was diagnosed with Ebola.

With the Lassa surveillance team in place, they quickly began testing samples.

"We've been able to capture the initial spread from that one person
and to follow all of these contacts and everything with sequencing,"
Garry said.

The team used a technique called deep sequencing in which sequences
are done repeatedly to generate highly specific results, allowing them
to see not only how the virus is mutating from person to person, but
how it is mutating in cells within the same person.

What is not clear from the study is whether the mutations are fueling
the epidemic by allowing the virus to grow better in people and become
easier to spread. That will require further tests in the lab, Garry
said.

read more


Viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics
Law & Politics


The Ebola Virus continues to gain velocity and the World Health
Organisation in their latest release dated August 22 announced that
the ‘’magnitude of the Ebola outbreak....has been underestimated’’ and
of ‘’the existence of an invisible caseload of patients who are not
being detected by the surveillance system.’’ WHO spoke of ‘’the
existence of numerous “shadow-zones.’’

read more


埃博拉疫情影响西非经济 政治稳定添变数 来源:凤凰卫视 发布:2014-08-23 21:35:00 时长:01:54 播放数:198685 评论数:0
Law & Politics


CNCNEWS(Africa) Ebola taking toll on W African economy @YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SXXAB12Aq4

"A rumour, which was totally false, spread that we had sprayed the
market in order to transmit the virus to locals," Traore said. "People
revolted and resorted to violence, prompting soldiers to intervene."

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN0GT0YV20140829

Special Report: The billion-dollar fall of the house of Espirito Santo

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/29/us-portugal-espiritosanto-family-idUSKBN0GT0R320140829

Quoting Pope Francis, he added: “Don’t cry for what you have lost;
fight for what you have.”

read more




Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3180
Dollar Index 82.49
Japan Yen 103.89
Swiss Franc 0.9149
Pound 1.6604
Aussie 0.9347
India Rupee 60.492
South Korea Won 1013.80
Brazil Real 2.2398
Egypt Pound 7.1470
South Africa Rand 10.6038

Dollar Index 1 Year Chart INO 82.49

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

You see in the old days, these conditions would have created a flight
into the dollar. And interestingly the dollar has been punching
higher. If things tip big, the dollar might soar. 25-AUG-2014

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2508.pdf

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3181

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Special Report: The billion-dollar fall of the house of Espirito Santo

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/29/us-portugal-espiritosanto-family-idUSKBN0GT0R320140829

Quoting Pope Francis, he added: “Don’t cry for what you have lost;
fight for what you have.”

read more



In Beijing he got the VIP treatment: red carpet, 21-gun salute, toasts to "traditional friendship ... forged in the glorious years when we stood shoulder to shoulder against imperialism, colonialism and hegemony".
Africa


Zimbabwe state media quoted officials with Mugabe in Beijing as saying
funding was needed for some $4 billion in projects, including energy,
road and dam construction, rehabilitation of a dilapidated rail
system, upgrading the state telecoms system and developing an
industrial factory park.

But Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa declined to give more details,
saying only that the new memorandums signed "set out the framework
under which we can be able to access funding".

Few believe southern Africa's most prominent surviving liberation hero
- after Nelson Mandela died in December - left Beijing empty-handed.

China's support for Mugabe stretches back to the days when it backed
his guerrilla war against white-ruled Rhodesia in the 1970s, and
continued after he was elected president following independence from
Britain in 1980.

"I'm sure the Chinese authorities will be able to offer some help to
an old friend," said Joseph Cheng, professor of political science at
the City University of Hong Kong.

But he said "businesslike" Beijing would seek real economic returns.
China has stakes in Zimbabwe's diamonds and ferrochrome industries and
is also interested in minerals like platinum - the African nation has
the world's second-largest reserves.

But however generous the package that Mugabe takes back from his
Eastern ally, there are questions over how much this can really help
Zimbabwe's struggling economy, with its shuttered factories, massive
unemployment and social destitution.

"I don't think it's a game changer in any significant way, unless
there are details that they are hiding from us," said John Robertson,
a private economic consultant in Harare.

read more



South Africa All Share Bloomberg +10.5002% 2014
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 10.6024

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1503

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +39.11% 2014 [Multi year Highs]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

9,435.05 60.69 +0.65%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +0.2347% 2014 [8 week lows]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

41,426.99 +67.10 +0.16%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +2.517% 2014 [7 month lows]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

2,199.21 1.13 0.05%

read more


.@Nestle hires Swiss as new CEO for its Nairobi hub @bd_africa
Africa


Food maker Nestlé has hired Swiss national Cornel Krummenacher as
chief executive for its Nairobi hub, which oversees the Equatorial
Africa market.

Mr Krummenacher, a specialist in marketing and sales, succeeds Ian
Donald who served a two-year term in Nairobi and has been posted as
chief executive for Nestlé South Africa.

The incoming boss will be tasked with driving sales in the Equatorial
African region (EAR) made up of 21 countries where Nestlé has four
factories in Kenya, Zimbabwe, Angola and the DR Congo and more than
1,000 employees.

Mr Krummenacher will take office on September 1. He will have the task
of defending and growing the market share of Nestlé’s flagship
products such as Cerelac, KitKat, Nesquik Cereal, Nescafe coffee,
Milo, Nestea, Maggi noodles and Boost energy drink.

Mr Krummenacher has been with Nestlé for more than 20 years and
previously served in senior management positions in Hong Kong,
Switzerland and China.

read more


Nation Media reports First Half PAT 2014 +2.879% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           313.00
Total Shares Issued:          188542286.00
Market Capitalization:        59,013,735,518
EPS:             13.4
PE:                 23.358

First Half Earnings through 30th June 2014 versus through 30th June 2013.

First Half 2014 Turnover 6.4466b versus 6.4281b +2.877%
First Half Profit before Income Tax 1.6508b versus 1.6169b +2.0966%
First Half Profit after Tax 1.1470b versus 1.1149b +2.879%
First Half Earnings Per Share 6.03 versus 6.02 +1.166%
Interim Dividend 2.50 versus 2.50 unchanged

Company Commentary

''The Void in income attributable to the General Elections, which
boosted the results in the first Half of 2013, was mitigated by a
combination of new innovative income generation projects as well as
sustained cost containment initiatives.''

''The Group will continue to take appropriate actions to mitigate the
potential adverse effects of the challenges to its performance and is
cautiously optimistic of sustaining growth in the remaining part of
the year,''

The publisher of Daily Nation and owner of other media outlets in the
region said that last year's first half had been buoyed by Kenya's
elections, which kept the east African nation's population glued to
televisions, radios and newspapers.

Conclusions


In Line Results.
Strong franchise.
Company is citing strong cost control

read more


Total Kenya reports H1 PAT 2014 +36.8154% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           22.50
Total Shares Issued:          175028706.00
Market Capitalization:        3,938,145,885
EPS:             2.08
PE:                 10.817

First Half Earnings through June 30th 2014 versus through June 30th 2013

First Gross Sales 90.400855b versus 65.789573b +37.409%
First Half Cost of Sales [79.436274b] versus [56.942364b] +39.502%
First Half gross Profit 3.315945b versus 2.863423b
First Half operating expenses [2.330987b] versus [2.103856b]
First Half Profit before Tax 1.039173b versus 0.757056b +37.265%
First Half Profit After Tax 631.134m versus 461.303m +36.8154%
First Half Earnings Per Share 1.00 versus 0.73 +36.986%

Company Commentary


Sales volumes increased by 37% from 621 KMT in 2013 to 851 KMT in 2014.
Increased sales to other OMCs Network Lubricants and consumer recorded
increased sales.
Gross Margin 4.00% in 2014 versus 4.8% in 2013.
No Interim Dividend
''Board has guarded confidence that the results for the second half of
the year shall be positive''

Conclusions


Earnings continue to show good Traction. They have stepped up as
KenolKobil stepped down.
Its an attractive share on a 10.817 Trailing PE.

read more


Home Afrika Ltd releases First Half PAT 2014 -73.67% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           5.15
Total Shares Issued:          405255320.00
Market Capitalization:        2,087,064,898
EPS:             0.05
PE:                 103.000

First Half through 30th June 2014 versus 6 months through 30th June 2013
First Half Revenue 550.420m versus 486.672m +13.098%
First Half Cost of Sales [326.383m] versus [167.352m] +95.027%
First Half Gross Profit 224.037m versus 319.320m -29.83%
First Half Administrative expenses [125.589m] versus [66.638m] +88.46%
First Half Operating Profit 73.134m versus 255.938m -71.425%
First Half Profit before Tax 66.228m versus 251.533m -73.67%
First Half Profit after Tax 42.209m versus 155.492m -72.85%
First Half Earnings Per Share 0.08 versus 0.19 -57.89%

Company Commentary

''included in administration costs are one off expenses and the impact
of the substantial activity in business operations and the various
projects resulting in an increase of 88% in the period.

''very positive about the real estate Industry''

Conclusions

They have a First Mover /First Lister Advantage.
I am constructive about Real Estate.

read more



Kenya intervenes to prop up ailing shilling @FT @KatrinaManson @JavierBlas2
Kenyan Economy


Kenya’s central bank appears to have drawn a line in the foreign
exchange market, intervening heavily this week to prop up the local
currency after the shilling fell to a near three-year low against the
US dollar.

The shilling’s fall to a 31-month low of Ks88.90 against the dollar –
down 3 per cent since January – reflects a series of blows to east
Africa’s largest economy as it suffers from lower hard-currency
revenues from its three key export sectors: tourism, tea and coffee,
and horticulture.

“Tea prices have not been strong this year and pressure has built
because there’s been a cratering of hard currency tourism receipts,”
said Aly-Khan Satchu, an independent investment adviser based in
Nairobi.

Currency traders estimate the central bank may have sold $30m-50m into
the market this week, more than 10 times as much as its last
intervention a few months ago.

Njuguna Ndung’u, governor of the central bank, declined to comment on
the intervention, but he described the shilling’s weakness as a
“paradox”.

“You should anticipate an appreciation of the shilling-dollar – since
shillings are scarce but the reverse is happening,” he told the
Financial Times.

The central bank’s intervention appears to have so far worked, with
the shilling recovering ground against major currencies. On Thursday,
it traded at Ks88.45 against the dollar, up 0.5 per cent since the
intervention started earlier on in the week.

“The central bank sold some dollars quite aggressively, which actually
was long overdue,” said a currency trader based in Nairobi.

The trader added: “Negative sentiment has been creeping into the
currency trending to the 90 levels. Once you break the psychological
barrier of 90 [shillings to the dollar], then 95 can be the next
target; so the point is they’ve intervened and will continue to flex
their muscles for now and contain the position within the 89 band.”
Tourism, tea and horticulture bring about $3bn worth of hard currency
every year, critical for the exchange rate of the shilling in the
$40bn a year economy.

Tourism dollars have collapsed since a series of terror attacks
claimed by al-Qaeda-linked jihadis and European and US travel warnings
cut holiday arrivals. The UK, source of 18.5 per cent of Kenya’s 1.06m
tourists in 2013, now warns against travel to coastal capital Mombasa
and the island idyll of Lamu, after a series of deadly June raids
nearby on the Lamu county mainland.
Although the Kenya Tourism Board has insisted arrivals have dropped
only by 4 per cent in the first half of the year compared with the
same period of 2013, leading hotel groups have reported a drop in
occupancy from above 70 per cent to 20 per cent.

Rosemary Mugambi, sales and marketing director of Serena Hotels Group,
described KTB’s figures as “not in touch with reality on the ground”,
in a statement widely applauded by tourism professionals last month.
She said tourist arrivals so far this year were down between 50 and 20
per cent from 2013.

Analysts said tourism income was unlikely to right itself this year.
“You’re going to have a second wave of weakness because of the Ebola
scare – that’s going to put people off Africa just generally,” said Mr
Satchu.

Conclusions


The Retreat in the price of Oil should give us some respite.

The Point about Tourism receipts was informed by my visit last week to
the South coast

read more



The Teflon Shilling 14-JUL-2014
Kenyan Economy


Kenya shilling has also proved real resilient and my Friend on Twitter
@cedricmuhammad characterised the shilling as ‘’The Teflon Shilling’’
which characterisation deserved an A Star.

The shilling has held and bounced off two and a half year lows at
88.20 on several occasions over the last few weeks. The shilling
whilst down about 1.5 per cent versus the dollar in 2014 remains only
behind the Malawi Kwacha [which has rallied +8.8 per cent over the
same period] when you look at the African currency league table. Look
at John Dramani Mahama’s Ghana @ JDMahama, whose macro-economic
credentials have been shredded and the currency has now fallen 30 per
cent and off a cliff in 2014. Teflon shilling indeed.

read more








 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share has set a record breaking winning streak this
week closing at a record every single day this week.
The Nairobi All Share rallied 0.541% to close at a Fresh Record of 157.94.
The Nairobi All Share is +15.5799% in 2014 and has been on a powerful
run higher this week.
The Nairobi NSE20 surged 50.23 points and 0.986% to close at 5139.39
which is a multi year closing High.
Equity turnover clocked 542.831m.
This has been an overwhelmingly bullish week at the Nairobi Securities Exchange.

The Financial Times's Katrina Manson reported on the Shilling
yesterday and noted ''Kenya's central bank appears to have drawn a
line in the foreign exchange market, intervening heavily this week to
prop up the local currency after the shilling fell to a near
three-year low against the US dollar''

The shilling traded a  31-month low of Ks88.90 against the dollar this
week before a strong intervention.

''Currency traders estimate the central bank may have sold $30m-50m
into the market this week, more than 10 times as much as its last
intervention a few months ago''

"Tea prices have not been strong this year and pressure has built
because there's been a cratering of hard currency tourism receipts,"
said Aly-Khan Satchu based in Nairobi.

Njuguna Ndung'u, governor of the central bank, declined to comment on
the intervention, but he described the shilling's weakness as a
"paradox".

"You should anticipate an appreciation of the shilling-dollar - since
shillings are scarce but the reverse is happening," he told the
Financial Times.

The Shilling was last trading at 88.427 and will gain some relief from
a sharply reduced Dollar Call at the next round of Crude Oil Buying.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Sasini Tea and Coffee rebounded 6.55% to close at 15.45 and traded
1,000 shares.

Kenya Orchards [which now carries a market cap of 196.080m and
$2,218,000 only] rallied 9.75% to close at a Fresh record of 15.20.
Kenya Orchards has rallied 406.666% this year which is extraordinary
by any measure.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom rallied +1.581% to close at 12.95 which is a 3 week high and
was in fact trading at session highs of 13.05 +2.35% at the Finish
Line. Safaricom traded solid volume of 13.574m shares worth 175.859m.
Safaricom has rallied +4.061% this month and is within 1.52% of an all
closing high of 13.15 reached in April this year, in short order.

@alykhansatchu  Aug 28 Always a pleasure catching up with
@bobcollymore Thanks for the time

pic.twitter.com/D2lmvKaI18

Nation Media reported First Half Earnings yesterday where First Half
Turnover expanded +2.877% to 6.4466b, First Half Profit after Tax
expanded +2.879% to 1.1470b. Nation is paying an unchanged Interim
Dividend of 2.50 a share. Nation Media spoke to the fact that these
results were lapping Kenya's elections in 2013, ''which kept the east
African nation's population glued to
televisions, radios and newspapers'' Nation Media traded 200 shares at
311.00 -0.64%. Nation Media is -0.955% in 2014.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank traded 2nd at the securities Exchange and firmed
0.877% to close at 57.50 and was trading at session highs of 58.50
+2.63% at the Closing Bell. Kenya Commercial Bank traded 1.297m shares
worth 74.957m with Buyers outpacing Sellers by a factor of 3 versus 1
at the Finish. Kenya Commercial Bank is +21.693% in 2014 and sits just
1.709% below a record All time High of 58.50 set on the 5th of this
month. Kenya Commercial Bank will set a Fresh All Time High as early
as next week.

CFC Stanbic Bank had become oversold and rebounded 5.88% to close at
126.00 and traded 49,400 shares.

Centum rallied 5.88% to close at a Fresh Record High of 54.00 and
traded 208,500 shares. Centum has posted a blistering +63.63% Return
in 2014 and that follows on from a Triple digit percentage Gain in
2013.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Total Kenya rallied +8.89% to close at 24.50 after releasing 1st Half
Earnings where First Half Sales surged +37.409% to 90.400855b and
First Half profit after Tax accelerated +36.8154% to 631.134m. Total
Kenya cut margin by 80 basis points to 4% as they chased market share.
Earnings might well bulk up further. These were good earnings and
hence the market reaction.

Bamburi Cement eased 1.2% to close at 165.00 and traded 339,800 shares
worth 56.080m. Bamburi Cement has bucked the bullish Trend at the
Bourse and retreated 27.27% year to date and today closed at a 2014
Low.
Interestingly and in contrast ARM Cement firmed 0.56% to close at
90.00 which is a 5 month High. ARM has rallied 12.5% this month as
Investors started to bake The Tanga Clinker Facility coming on stream
into the price. The Bifurcation between ARM'S share price and
Bamburi's is an important Signal in the Noise.

Kenya Power KPLC firmed 0.96% to close at a 2014 high of 15.75. Kenya
Power traded 2.736m shares worth 43.224m. KPLC has rallied sharply and
+21.62% in August.
KenGen eased 0.909% to close at 10.90 and traded 154,300 shares.
KenGen has rallied +18.47% this month but remains 19.55% lower this
year as Investors turned defensive in the face of a well telegraphed
liquidity Event.

Unga rallied 2.94% to close at 35.00 and traded 5,900 shares. Unga is
+94.444% in 2014.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2014
 
 
 
 
RICH PODCASTS
08-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 8th April 2011
07-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 7th April 2011
06-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 6th April 2011
05-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 5th April 2011
04-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 4th April 2011
01-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 1st April 2011
 
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