22nd May 2015
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Friday 22nd of May 2015
 
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Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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@nanexllc May 20 The relationship between Price, Volume and Liquidity:
Africa


Home Thoughts

Since my episode when I was interdicted for using my phone at 5 kph in
heavy traffic and then discovered my driving license had expired and
my visit to Parklands Police Station, the dear Wife has been driving
me around. And this morning, as she dropped me off, I turned to Hannah
I want a ''commendation'' good-bye kiss this morning, Darling.And she
has this kind of sceptical face as if she has grown up and I haven't
but I can still blow that look out of the water. We were in the
downstairs Car Park and i started shouting [and the Wife and Daughters
say I can be loud]

Vow [You remember Al Pacino think him] thats the best Kiss. Hannah has
slid under the chair but I knew she knew I was very serious and never
to be denied, ever.

And her Mother who was still a little cross with me for getting up her
all dressed up thinking it was the Swedish National Day and when we
got there H.E Borgstam's House was so quiet it was Dickensian. Then
still cross, I said just stop here and said I am ordering a Take-away,
Would you like to come in? She says No. I am staying in the car. I
proceeded inside ordered a Corona [Don't tell Charles please] and
ordered the Take-away and twenty minutes later proceeded with the
Takeaway in hand.

read more




@KENYAPICS Mara Sundown
Africa


Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o > Quotes > Quotable Quote
Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o
“Our lives are a battlefield on which is fought a continuous war
between the forces that are pledged to confirm our humanity and those
determined to dismantle it; those who strive to build a protective
wall around it, and those who wish to pull it down; those who seek to
mould it and those committed to breaking it up; those who aim to open
our eyes, to make us see the light and look to tomorrow [...] and
those who wish to lull us into closing our eyes”

read more




Islamic State says it has full control of Syria's Palmyra @Reuters
Law & Politics


Islamic State fighters tightened their grip on the historic Syrian
city of Palmyra on Thursday and overran Iraqi government defenses east
of Ramadi, the provincial capital that they seized five days earlier.

The twin successes not only pile pressure on Damascus and Baghdad but
throw doubt on a U.S. strategy of relying almost exclusively on air
strikes to support the fight against Islamic State.

Conclusions


Bunch of hirsute Barbarians crossing the desert in plain sight and not
one Air Strike interdicts them? Not one.

read more



The three grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy and to keep the barbarians from coming together @zbig
Law & Politics


The three grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy are to prevent
collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep
tributaries pliant and protected, and to keep the barbarians from
coming together Zbigniew Brzezinski

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On the tail risk of violent conflict and its underestimation Pasquale Cirillo∗ and Nassim Nicholas Taleb†
Law & Politics


Abstract—We examine all possible statistical pictures of violent
conflicts over common era history with a focus on dealing with
incompleteness and unreliability of data. We apply methods from
extreme value theory on log-transformed data to remove compact
support, then, owing to the boundedness of maximum casualties,
retransform the data and derive expected means. We find the estimated
mean likely to be at least three times larger than the sample mean,
meaning severe underestimation of the severity of conflicts from naive
observation. We check for robustness by sampling between high and low
estimates and jackknifing the data. We study inter-arrival times
between tail events and find (first-order) memorylessless of events.
The statistical pictures obtained are at variance with the claims
about "long peace".

read more


@nntaleb · May 20 Copy editing is similar to plastic surgery. Unless one has serious damage, the natural, when moderately imperfect, prevails aesthetically.
Law & Politics


China says U.S. actions in South China Sea 'irresponsible, dangerous'

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/22/us-usa-china-southchinasea-idUSKBN0O70MO20150522

China said on Friday actions by the United States in the South China
Sea were "irresponsible and dangerous" and called on it to stop after
it vowed to keep up air and sea patrols in international waters.

China was "strongly dissatisfied" with U.S. military overflights, said
Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei.

Conclusions


The Pivot to Asia is baring its fangs again.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1162
Dollar Index 95.15
Japan Yen 120.79 The greenback scaled a two-month peak of 121.49 midweek
Swiss Franc 0.9351
Pound 1.5670
Aussie 0.7920
India Rupee 63.615
South Korea Won 1089.99
Brazil Real 3.0403
Egypt Pound 7.6301
South Africa Rand 11.8069

Dollar Index 6 Month Chart INO 95.15

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d6

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.1162

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The euro crept up 0.2 percent to $1.1140 EUR=. It had hit a three-week
low of $1.1062 earlier this week amid Greek debt concerns and was
poised to lose 2.7 percent on the week.

Euro Rises as Dollar Pares Weekly Gain; Chinese Stocks Advance

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-21/asian-futures-rise-as-s-p-500-extends-record-oil-maintains-jump

The euro advanced, helping to trim the dollar’s first gain in six
weeks, and European bonds climbed. Asian stocks rose, with Chinese
shares heading for their biggest weekly gain since November, while oil
is set for a record streak of gains.

The euro strengthened 0.4 percent by 7:11 a.m. in London, dragging the
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index 0.3 percent lower. Yields on 10-year notes
from Germany and France fell two basis points. The Shanghai Composite
Index extended the week’s gain to 7.6 percent.
Standard & Poor’s 500
Index futures rose 0.1 percent and contracts on the Euro Stoxx 50
Index were little changed. U.S. oil was at $60.60 a barrel, set for a
record 10th weekly advance. Wheat climbed.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks on the economy after data
that’s estimated to show inflation slowed to just 0.1 percent in April
from 0.2 percent the previous month. Mixed U.S. economic reports have
prompted investors to push back estimates for when the Fed will begin
raising rates, helping to drive equities to all-time highs. The Bank
of Japan kept its record stimulus program unchanged Friday.

“The U.S. CPI is unlikely to surprise markets,” said Masashi Murata,
vice president at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in Tokyo. “Speculation
about the timing of when rates will be raised may have been pushed
back, but the dollar is being bought and it’s on an uptrend. The euro
is clearly overvalued. Even with the drop in European yields, the
currency hasn’t adjusted.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10
major peers, fell Thursday as housing data trailed estimates and U.S.
jobless claims increased in the week.

The euro strengthened to $1.1163 and the Australian dollar added 0.4
percent with the Swiss franc. New Zealand’s currency rose 0.6 percent
stronger at 73.85 cents, trimming its weekly loss to 1.1 percent. The
South Pacific country’s currency is heading for a fifth weekly
retreat, the longest streak since October.

Minutes of the Fed’s April meeting published Wednesday showed many
officials expected June would probably be too soon to boost borrowing
costs, while they remain open to tightening later this year. They
indicated a first-quarter slowdown in the economy was probably
temporary.

read more



The mint colored "South Side" is made with 2oz Knickerbocker Gin, 1oz lime juice and 1.5oz of mint simple syrup.
World Currencies


The cherry-colored "Blood & Sand" is a mix of 1oz Dewars scotch, 1oz
Cherry Heering, 1oz Noilly Pratt sweet vermouth and 1oz blood orange
juice. Each are served in etched vintage coupe glasses.

read more



Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 60.60
Commodities


U.S. crude futures are in their longest winning streak since records
began in 1983
, helped by a drop in crude and product stockpiles last
week, reflecting better demand in the world's largest oil consumer.

West Texas Intermediate CLc1 for July delivery was at $60.66 a barrel
by 0648 GMT, down 6 cents on the day but poised to post gains for the
10th week.

July Brent crude LCOc1 fell 5 cents to $66.49 a barrel after closing
up 2.3 percent on Thursday. Front-month Brent prices are set to post a
small drop this week.

read more




President Nkurunziza @BdiPresidence plays football @Independent
Africa


As protesters in Burundi continue to voice their anger against the
government in the wake of an attempted coup, the President has been
photographed playing football with his friends.

Two protesters were killed and 13 people were injured on Thursday, as
crowds gathered despite the fact President Pierre Nkurunziza has
banned demonstrations.

A protester from the capital's Ngagara neighborhood was shot dead and
another was killed in the Musaga district, Red Cross spokesman Alexis
Manirakiza said.

read more



"A third term would deal a serious blow to the legitimacy of the Burundian government," Belgian foreign ministry said
Africa


"A third term would deal a serious blow to the legitimacy of the
Burundian government," the Belgian foreign ministry said, adding that
in such a case it would review its aid to focus on strengthening
democratic forces in the country.

Belgium's development aid for Burundi in 2013 was just under 50
million euros ($55.7 million), most of it going directly to the state.

read more



Top 10 most corrupt countries in Africa was as follows: Uganda (10), Equatorial Guniea (9), Angola (8), Cameroon (7), Mozambique (6), Zimbabwe (5), Lybia (4), Kenya (3), Liberia (2) and Sierra Leone (1).
Africa


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +10.26% 2015 [1.929% below a record
High set April 24th this year]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

54,123.89 +68.18 +0.13%

Stretched South Africa Stocks Makes Cash a Better Bet to Stanlib

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-21/stretched-south-africa-stocks-makes-cash-a-better-bet-to-stanlib

South African stocks have never been more expensive relative to their
emerging market peers, making cash a better investment choice for the
country’s third-largest money manager.

The FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index rose 9 percent this year, pushing
the gauge to 17 times estimated earnings and increasing the spread
over the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to the highest on record. Gains
for 2015 are over, with no more returns seen for the South African
measure for the rest of the year, according to Vaughan Henkel, an
investment strategist for Johannesburg-based Stanlib Asset Management
Ltd., which oversees the equivalent of $46 billion.

“The combination of stretched valuations and poor outlook for earnings
are a difficult environment for equities in South Africa,” he said by
phone this month. “We prefer cash as the best asset class until we see
the equity and bond markets reflecting the risk we see.”

read more



Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 11.8069
Africa


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.6301

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +1.94% 2015 [+8.813% since 17th May and
announcing 2 year CGT Delay]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,988.03 +161.58 +1.83%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +2.51% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Nigerian consumer stocks are struggling through a “lost year” as a
slump in oil prices buffets Africa’s largest economy Renaissance
Capital Ltd.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-21/nigeria-s-lost-year-of-growth-deterring-investors-rencap-says

Fuel shortages are making it harder to distribute goods
as companies
including Guinness Nigeria Plc, Nestle Nigeria Plc, and Unilever
Nigeria Plc grapple with a slowing economy and weaker local currency,
said Benjamin Samuels, head of equities at the Moscow-based investment
bank that focuses on emerging markets. Investors are also shunning the
country’s banks until there’s more clarity on how they’re responding
to the risk of higher defaults because of lower crude prices, he said.

“Some see 2015 as a lost year for growth and margins” in consumer
stocks, he said in an interview in Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city, on
May 18. “The cost of imports has gone through the roof with the
decline of the naira,” Samuels said. Companies are facing “challenges
around distribution and weaker sales,” he said.

Growth slowed to 4 percent in the first quarter from 5.9 percent in
the last three months of 2014. Africa’s biggest crude producer, which
derives 90 percent of export earnings from oil, has been hit by the
Brent variety’s 40 percent drop since June. The naira has depreciated
18 percent against the dollar over the past 12 months.


Nigerians have faced long queues for fuel in recent weeks in the
country that relies on imports to meet more than 70 percent of
domestic needs. While the government guarantees cheaper fuel by
subsidizing gasoline, it’s struggling to pay marketers the difference
between the landing price of oil and the fixed domestic rate as low
crude prices deplete revenue.

Nestle’s net income fell 51 percent to 2.95 billion naira ($15
million) in the first quarter from a year earlier. The stock has lost
18 percent in the last 12 months, while Guinness’s shares are down 12
percent and Unilever’s 8.7 percent.

Consumer stocks still look expensive compared with the rest of the
Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index, Samuels said.

“Some consumer names are trading at 20 to 30 times earnings,” he said.
“They’re not cheap. If you’re buying a stock with a high price to
earnings ratio, you’re likely taking a bet on 2016 and 2017.”

Foreign-exchange “liquidity does have to improve for equity investors
to get more comfortable,” Samuels said. “Once we see the new cabinet,
oil rallying off a low point and a stable currency, liquidity can pick
up significantly, hopefully well above the current $25 million a day.”

Former military ruler Buhari, 72, takes office on May 29. Some
investors who pulled out of Nigeria bought into East African shares
and Tanzania looks attractive after lifting controls that prevented
foreigners from owning more than 60 percent of companies on the Dar es
Salaam Stock Exchange in September. RenCap, owned by billionaire
Mikhail Prokhorov, covers one stock in the country, Tanzania Breweries
Ltd., and wants to add more this year, Samuels said. The main index in
the country has rallied 52 percent in the past 12 months.


“Liquidity is improving in Tanzania,” he said. “Investors are going in.”

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +4.11% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


Kenyan security forces on Thursday evening thwarted a terrorist attack by Al-Shabaab militants targeting Yumbis village in Ijara, Garissa County.
Kenyan Economy


The Interior Ministry stated that villagers alerted security forces
that they had spotted armed militants in the area at around 6pm.

“Security forces swiftly mobilized and engaged the militants in gun
battle. No casualties were reported,” Interior Ministry spokesperson
Mr Mwenda Njoka said in a statement.

Inspector General of Police Mr Joseph Boinnet said the Al-Shabaab
militants were harassing locals but were repulsed by security
personnel.

" Security forces last night ambushed an Al Shabaab mob, found
harassing locals for food & water Yumbis, Ijara. Attempted incursion
repulsed," he said Friday in a post on his Twitter account.

Conclusions


Security remains the Achilles Heel.

read more


Kenyan mosque in Garissa briefly taken by al-Shabab BBC
Kenyan Economy


Militants from the Islamist group al-Shabab briefly took over a mosque
in northern Kenya, local leaders say.

The jihadists are said to have addressed the congregation for two
hours before escaping into a forest.

They criticised Kenyan authorities and warned people not to pass
intelligence to the security forces.

The mosque is in Garissa county, 240km (150 miles) from Garissa town,
where al-Shabab last month killed at least 148 people at a university.

Police commander Caleb Matoke told The Standard newspaper that 25
fighters were involved. He said he believed they were sent by Mohamed
Kuno, the man Kenyan authorities have accused of being behind the
Garissa University college attack.

One resident told the BBC: "They [militants] came to [Hulugho] town
and proceeded to the mosque where they gathered people and started
giving out sermons.

"They said that they are also Muslims and they are only targeting
government officials whom they have a problem with."

read more


18-MAY-2015 CBK In Delicate Position Over Weak Shilling @TheStarKenya
Kenyan Economy


Practically, everyone I meet is concerned and a push above 100 would
drive a stake through the bullish Kenya narrative and will prove very
difficult to roll back.

Nevertheless, a move to triple digits will be a hammer-blow

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 97.148

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +2.203% 2015 [-6.213% since closing at a
record Feb 25th 2015]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

166.48 -0.90 -0.54%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -3.599% 2015 [has retreated 570.73 points
[10.3775%] since closing at a multi year high 5,499.64 2nd March 2015]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,928.91 +4.46 +0.09%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

KenGen wins Africa renewable energy awards @BD_Africa

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/KenGen-wins-Africa-renewable-energy-awards/-/539550/2724698/-/dkkt28z/-/index.html

“KenGen is proud to be on the lead in moving the country towards
self-sufficiency and providing reliable, affordable and renewable
energy,” said KenGen managing director and chief executive Albert Mugo
after receiving the award.

read more


.@KenGenKenya share price data here @AmugoMugo
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           9.55
Total Shares Issued:          2198361344.00
Market Capitalization:        20,994,350,835
EPS:             1.29
PE:                 7.403

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The All Share retreated a sharp 0.937% to close at 164.92.
The NSE20 sank 48.96 points to close at a Fresh 2015 closing low of 4979.95.
The Equity Markets and the Shilling have been on a bear run of late.
The Shilling was last trading at Fresh Multi Year Lows of 97.376.
Equity Turnover was brisk for a Friday and clocked 517.046m.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Rea Vipingo which is the subject of Buy-Out Offer by the Majority
Shareholder and is no longer traded at the Bourse, reported H1
Earnings where First Half Revenue surged +32.96% to 1.742b and First
Half Earnings Per Share ratcheted a blistering +322.8% higher to 8.71
shillings a share. Rea Vipingo cited Sisal fibre prices ''which have
been firm for a number of years, have risen quite materially in the
past six months''

Sasini Tea and Coffee rallied 2.903% to close at 15.95 sand on good
volume for what is a thinly traded share. Sasini traded 54,200 shares



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Securities
Exchange and eased 0.6134% to close at 16.20 and traded 11.532m shares
worth 187.176m. Safaricom is +15.302% in 2015 and has corrected 7.42%
off a record reached the day before the Full Year Earnings Release.
Anecdotal Chatter is signalling the ''Big Box'' is doing brisk
business and For now Shareholders have not baked the Digital
Broadcasting Opportunity into the share price. I expect Fresh All Time
Highs in due course.

Nation Media Group retreated 3.3% to close at 205.00 on heavy duty
volume action of 380,000 shares worth 77.91m. Nation Media has now
retreated 22.053% through 2015 and I am sure the new incoming CEO Joe
Muganda will be looking to put a floor under the Price. There is
persistent informed chatter around Print Sales weakness.

@NationMediaGrp share price data here -22.05% in 2015

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTA%3D



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Ahead of the opening Bell, Barclays Bank reported that Q1 2015 PAT
accelerated +8.973%. Barclays Bank closed unchanged at 15.20 and
traded 965,500 shares worth 14.676m. Barclays Bank trades on a single
digit PE of 9.87. Barclays Bank looks a value proposition at -8.98%
Year to date.
Equity Group retreated 1.58% to close at 46.75 and traded good volume
of 1.334m shares worth 62.489m. Sellers outpaced Buyers by a margin 2
versus 1 through the trading session. Equity Group has laid out a very
bold SSA Expansion Plan. The Share price has not reacted and Equity
Group has in fact retreated 6.5% in 2015.
Kenya Commercial Bank eased back 0.833% to close at 59.50 after a real
strong rebound earlier in the week.

I@M Bank was low-ticked 9.701% to close at 121.00 on just 200 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL firmed 0.33% to close at 301.00 and traded 185,700 shares worth
56.062m. This is the lower End of the Trading Range for 2015 and EABL
is overdue a bounce from the lower end of its Bull Channel.

Sameer Africa surged +9.27% higher to close at 5.30 and traded 22,000 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2015
 
 
 
 
RICH PODCASTS
08-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 8th April 2011
07-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 7th April 2011
06-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 6th April 2011
05-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 5th April 2011
04-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 4th April 2011
01-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 1st April 2011
 
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