29th June 2017
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 28th of June 2017
 
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Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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Anonymous believes that Nasa is on the verge of announcing proof of alien life.
Africa


Since then, I’ve observed that alien life forms seem to drift towards
politics. From Washington to New Delhi to Nairobi, the aliens are on
the rise and plotting world domination every night in their secret
Twitter language of covfefe. One only has to look at the state of the
planet – climate change out of control, never-ending wars, refugee
crises – to agree that extra-terrestrials determined to destroy it
must be running things.

And they are getting bolder. The Nigerian president, Muhammadu Buhari,
has been missing for over a month on sick leave. Nothing has been
heard from him, except an audio clip. Perhaps Anonymous will soon
confirm my suspicions that there has been an alien abduction.

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Precursor
Africa


A substance from which another is formed, especially by metabolic reaction.

Origin
Late Middle English: from Latin praecursor, from praecurs- ‘preceded’,
from praecurrere, from prae ‘beforehand’ + currere ‘to run’.

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Harbinger
Africa


A person or thing that announces or signals the approach of another.

Middle English: from Old French herbergere, from herbergier ‘provide
lodging for’, from herberge ‘lodging’, from Old Saxon heriberga
‘shelter for an army, lodging’ (from heri ‘army’ + a Germanic base
meaning ‘fortified place’), related to harbour. The term originally
denoted a person who provided lodging, later one who went ahead to
find lodgings for an army or for a nobleman and his retinue, hence, a
herald (mid 16th century).

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27-JUN-2017 :: I am forecasting a slump towards $32.00 which will be a catalyst for a serious crisis and in the order of magnitude of the 2008 financial crisis
Africa


I am forecasting a slump towards $32.00 which will be a catalyst for a
serious crisis and in the order of magnitude of the 2008 financial
crisis. These folks did not end their party, they just gorged on
credit and now their lenders are set to come knocking.  The end is
indeed nigh.

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08-MAY-2017 :: Reserves have been depleted from Abuja to Riyadh, from Luanda to Caracas and in all the oil producing capitals in the world
Law & Politics


Reserves have been depleted from Abuja to Riyadh, from Luanda to
Caracas and in all the oil producing capitals in the world. So many
capitals are fiddling while sitting on a tinderbox and playing with
matches.

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27-MAR-2017 :: Keep an eye on Caracas, Riyadh, Abuja, Luanda and all the rest
Law & Politics


’April is the cruellest month,
breeding Lilacs out of the dead land,
mixing Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.’’

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25-JUL-2016 The Edge...There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over''
Law & Politics


Policy makers from Luanda to Abuja were praying for a Hail-Mary pass
and a recovery in the commodity price structure. Many folks had the
2008/2009 V-shaped recovery in mind.

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AUG-2015 The end is nigh for crude oil and oil producers from Caracas to Luanda, from Riyadh to Abuja
Law & Politics


Ryszard Kapuciski said: “If the crowd disperses, goes home, does not
reassemble, we say the revolution is over.”

The revolution is only just beginning.

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27-JUN-2017 :: KSA decapitated its Crown Prince and appointed a 31-year-old MBS and is surely plotting an incision into Doha and a regime change.
Law & Politics


Kingdom of Saudi Arabia decapitated its Crown Prince and appointed a
31-year-old MBS [who allegedly while on holiday liked a yacht, cut a
cheque for $550m (Sh56.99 billion) on the spot and threw the owner
‘’overboard’’] and is surely plotting an incision into Doha and a
regime change.

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27-JUN-2017 :: The once "sick man" of Europe has got its mojo back with the wizardry of French President Emmanuel Macron changing the European narrative
International Trade


The once ‘’sick man’’ of Europe has got its mojo back with the
wizardry of French President Emmanuel Macron changing the European
narrative via an ‘’abracabradabra’’ type magic trick

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10 SEP 12 :: Super Mario Draghi
International Trade


What Draghi has done is remove the tail risk from the Euro Area. Last
year, Ben Bernanke was asked why people hold gold and he said “As
protection against what we call tail risks: really, really bad
outcomes,” he answered.

I do not expect a sharp rebound in the Euro area yet but the downside,
the vortex risk has been back stopped and thats a major achievement.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1360
Dollar Index 96.33
Japan Yen 112.36
Swiss Franc 0.9597
Pound 1.2809
Aussie 0.7593
India Rupee 64.545
South Korea Won 1144.00
Brazil Real 3.3126
Egypt Pound 18.1267
South Africa Rand 13.0006

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WTI Crude Oil Chart via @business 43.92 Last
Commodities


Futures lost as much as 1.3 percent in New York after climbing 4
percent the previous four sessions.

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27-JUN-2017 :: I am forecasting a slump towards $32.00 which will be a catalyst for a serious crisis and in the order of magnitude of the 2008 financial crisis
Commodities


I am forecasting a slump towards $32.00 which will be a catalyst for a
serious crisis and in the order of magnitude of the 2008 financial
crisis. These folks did not end their party, they just gorged on
credit and now their lenders are set to come knocking. The end is
indeed nigh

read more



Chokepoints and Vulnerabilities in Global Food Trade Chatham House
Commodities


Global food security is underpinned by trade in a few crops and
fertilizers. Just three crops – maize, wheat and rice – account for
around 60 per cent of global food energy intake.
1 A fourth crop, soybean, is the world’s largest source of animal
protein feed, accounting for 65 per cent of global protein feed
supply.
2 Each year, the world’s transport system moves enough maize, wheat,
rice and soybean to feed approximately 2.8 billion people.
3 Meanwhile, the 180 million tonnes of fertilizers applied to farmland
annually play a vital role in helping us grow enough wheat, rice and
maize to sustain our expanding populations.4
International trade in these commodities is growing, increasing
pressure on a small number of ‘chokepoints’ – critical junctures on
transport routes through which exceptional volumes of trade pass.
Three principal kinds of chokepoint are critical to global food
security: maritime straits along shipping lanes; coastal
infrastructure in major crop-exporting regions; and inland transport
infrastructure in major exporting regions. A serious interruption at
one or more of these chokepoints could conceivably lead to supply
shortfalls and price spikes, with systemic consequences that could
reach beyond food markets. More commonplace disruptions may not in
themselves trigger crises, but can add to delays, spoilage and
transport costs, constraining market responsiveness and contributing
to higher prices and increased volatility.
The most important inland and coastal chokepoints lie in the US,
Brazil and the Black Sea, which account for 53 per cent of global
exports of wheat, rice, maize and soybean.

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#Congo just hiked key interest rate by 4 pct (!) to 20 pct to try to stabilise its tanking franc. @ReutersAfrica
Africa


Democratic Republic of Congo raised its key interest rate to 20
percent from 14 percent on Monday as it sought to stabilise its
volatile franc currency, the central bank said in a statement.

The Congolese franc has lost half of its value against the dollar over
the past year due to low tax revenues from foreign investors and high
government deficits.

"In the aim of confronting the rising exchange rate trend of the
Congolese franc and reducing the pace of interior price increases, the
Central Bank of Congo has just, once more, tightened its monetary
policy," the statement said.

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White House Pushes Military Might Over Humanitarian Aid in Africa NYT
Africa


Pentagon officials are themselves concerned that shifting to a
military-heavy presence in Africa will hurt American interests in the
long term by failing to stimulate development. An absence of schools
and jobs, they say, creates more openings for militant groups.

“We have statements out of Washington about significant reductions in
foreign aid,” Gen. Griffin Phiri, the commander of the Malawi Defense
Forces, said in an interview during the African Land Forces Summit, a
conference of 126 American Army officers and service members and their
counterparts from 40 African nations. “What I can tell you is that
experience has shown us that diplomacy and security must come
together.” He bemoaned “mixed messages” coming out of Washington.

The White House has yet to nominate someone for the post of assistant
secretary of state for African affairs — the top administration envoy
to the continent. Mr. Trump has made only a handful of calls to
African leaders since taking office, and the National Security Council
still doesn’t have a director for African affairs.

Mr. Trump’s secretary of state, Rex W. Tillerson, reinforced the view
on the continent that the Trump administration puts a low priority on
diplomacy when in April he backed out of a planned meeting with the
chairman of the African Union, Moussa Faki Mahamat, at the last
minute. The aborted meeting, first reported by Foreign Policy
magazine, left the chairman fuming.

Gen. Carter Ham, a former commander of Africa Command, said in an
interview that cuts in foreign aid would lead to the need for more
increases in military spending. “Insecurity in Africa, which adversely
affects the United States, stems in my view from loss of hope,” he
said.


@IgnazioMagnani 🌍Namibia from @Space_Station
https://twitter.com/IgnazioMagnani/status/879255446841954304

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Africa facing shortfall of 50 million jobs by 2040, report says
Africa


Parts of Africa could face a massive unemployment crisis by 2040, with
“catastrophic” consequences for the global economy, new research has
found.

The report predicted a shortfall of 50 million jobs, which should
serve as a “wake up call” for governments across much of the
continent, as well as international donors and agencies. According to
the analysis by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, based on
world bank data, the labour force in sub-saharan Africa will be 823
million by 2040, up from 395 million in 2015. However, total number of
jobs is only expected to hit 773 million, it said, leaving 50 million
people in Africa unemployed.

The report looks at why some African countries, including Ghana,
Kenya, Liberia, Malawi, Nigeria and Sierra Leone, with great economic
potential, have struggled to transform and generate growth that is
inclusive for all their citizens.

International donors pursuing “piecemeal, uncoordinated interventions”
are aggravating matters, it said. Jim Murphy, former cabinet minister,
now of the institute, said: “Unless action is taken, Africa is facing
a shortfall of 50 million jobs by 2040. This should serve as a serious
wake up call for all. This daunting figure will not only have profound
consequences for the whole of Africa and its people, but the impact on
the global economy could be catastrophic.”

Conclusions

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November 2014 Demographic Dividend or Terminator
Africa


What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected
African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic
dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic
terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the
rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.

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South Africa's Treasury talks with banks to roll over SAA debt @ReutersAfrica
Africa


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +1.54% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.0002

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.1267

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

@BenedicteKurzen embeds w/ the normal folks of #Maiduguri #Nigeria
living w/ the #BokoHaram threat via @lemondefr

https://twitter.com/JoeBavier/status/879460955398307841

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +19.53% 2017 [-2,253 points since June 20th]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +15.32% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Why Naspers may revitalise its video entertainment unit
Africa


Naspers may spend about R1bn bolstering its video entertainment
division as it warns it may take a while for the unit’s struggling
sub-Saharan Africa operations to return to profitability.

The business under MultiChoice’s pay-TV platform Dstv managed to
record modest growth in subscribers in the year to March, thanks to
the change in pricing and discontinuation of nonperforming content.
But currency weakness negated a similar improvement in financial
performance.

The business recorded a trading loss of $358m.

Monetary policy continued to affect liquidity in Nigeria, Angola and
Mozambique with limited availability of foreign currency.

At the end of March, Naspers had $289m cash trapped in Nigeria, Angola
and Mozambique. But it had managed to extract the bulk of the money by
the end of May.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +16.66% 2017 [23 month highs]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

155.56 +0.97 +0.63%

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@Safaricomltd +22.715% in 2017 share data here
Kenyan Economy


Safaricom firmed +1.08% to close at 23.50 and regain a record closing
high previously reached on the 12th and 16th of this month

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@FitchRatings Affirms @StanbicKE at 'BB-'; Outlook Negative
Kenyan Economy


Fitch Ratings-London-27 June 2017: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Stanbic
Bank Kenya Limited's (SBK) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at
'BB-' with a Negative Outlook. A full list of rating actions is at the
end of this rating action commentary.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
IDRS, SUPPORT RATING AND NATIONAL RATINGS
SBK's IDRs, Support Rating (SR) and National Ratings are driven by a
moderate probability of support from its ultimate parent, South
Africa-based Standard Bank Group (SBG; BB+/Stable), which indirectly
owns 60%. The bank's IDRs are constrained by the Kenyan Country
Ceiling of 'BB-'. If not for this, Fitch would most likely rate SBK
one notch below SBG.

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Crown Berger share price data here +70.238% in 2017
Kenyan Economy


Crown Berger rallied +9.16% to close at a 2017 High of 71.50. Crown
Berger announced on the 22nd of June that they were looking to receive
permission to buy back unto 15% of its shares and this has surely had
the collateral benefit of underpinning the Price. Crown Berger is
+70.238% in 2017. Crown trades on a Trailing PE of 38.64, which is a
Signal to sell into this price rally.

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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +13.50% 2017
Kenyan Economy


3,616.31 -7.52 -0.21%

@Rustycase @kenyapics : Lake Elementaita

https://twitter.com/Rustycase/status/879240550079229953

@TheStarKenya Ex-Chase Bank chairman Zafrullah Khan arrested in Nairobi

https://twitter.com/TheStarKenya/status/879942597028057089

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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