3rd May 2016
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 03rd of May 2016
 
Morning
Africa

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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

We had a wonderful #Mindspeak Session. @Richtvafrica in the Edit Suite

read more



Bank bosses call for forced consolidation to boost sector Standard Media
Africa


This was the message from KCB Group CEO Joshua Oigara, Kenya Bankers
Association CEO Habil Olaka and NIC Bank CEO John Gachora at a
business forum over the weekend. The three said no other sector in the
country has as many players as the banking sector, which was weakening
it. Kenya has a total of 44 banks, some which are too small and could
easily collapse if a few depositors default on loan repayments, they
said. UNDUE PRESSURE They added that regulating all these lenders was
putting undue pressure on the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK). READ MORE
KCB deepens investment in property business Chase Bank depositors can
finally access their cash Bankers to introduce tough rules to weed out
‘bad apples’ “I remember when Kenya Pipeline needed finance for a
project it was undertaking. No single Kenyan bank could come up with
the money. It needed a total of 11 banks to come up with the funds,
which is unsustainable,” said Mr Oigara at the Mindspeak forum hosted
by investment analyst Aly-Khan Satchu in Nairobi. Mr Gachora added
that consolidation would bring interest rates down since one big bank
could better withstand the risks of default than several small banks.
“I always give the example of KCB with a capital of Sh55 billion, yet
it can only lend Sh15 billion since the law allows a bank to lend only
25 per cent of its capital. There are businesses and development
projects that need more than this amount. Consolidation will make more
money available for lending,” said Gachora. However, CBK Governor
Patrick Njoroge is against the idea of forced consolidation, saying
the move would only create more dominant banks that are “too big to
fail”. The CBK chief, speaking after Chase Bank was placed under
receivership last month, said he prefers better supervision of banks
over having larger lenders. “At the end of the day, the Central Bank
is quite uncomfortable with this proposal of pushing lenders toward
consolidation,” Dr Njoroge said.

Macro Thoughts

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If it's money you want, buy precious metals @TheStarKenya
Africa


President Obama in his last White House correspondents dinner said:
“If this material works well, I’m going to use it at Goldman Sachs
next year. Earn me some serious Tubmans”.

Earning Tubmans in the markets is always a 24-hour job.

Of course. Earning ''serious Tubmans'' is not going to be an issue for
the President when he leaves Office.

Earning Tubmans in the markets is always a 24 hour Job and one where
we cannot leave the screen for even a moment.

The Currency Markets have been seeing some serious action of late with
the Japanese Yen surging more than 4.5% last week for its 2nd biggest
gain since LTCM in Oct 1998. The markets feel that ''Abenomics'' is a
busted Flush and the Bank of Japan might be brandishing a Bazooka but
that it has not got any Bullets.

You will recall I said on January 11th 2016 ''one of my conviction
trades for 2016 is to buy the yen against just about everything.''

The Pound has been on the mend. The Dollar has come under pressure and
has now fallen for three months and this now the longest stretch since
before it embarked on two-year, 20 percent rally in July 2014. The
dollar has fallen 5.9% this year. The US Economy expanded at +0.5% in
Q1 2016 and thats on an annualised basis signalling the Economy has
hit a Brick Wall.  The Kenya Shilling  is at an 8 month high and
interestingly has exhibited a great deal of Alpha when compared to its
Peers.

Brent Crude has now ramped nearly 80% higher since slumping to a
multi-Year Low in January. This Rebound actually mimics what happened
this time last year, its close to a mirror image. A Lot of Folks
[myself included] think this is a ''Head-Fake'' and that the Rally has
been a vicious short-covering one. Shorts are Folks who sell an Asset
in the expectation that they can buy the same asset back later at a
lower price and therefore for a Profit. Shorts have been burned and
the market is now net Long.

Gold and Silver have surged to 15 month Highs and both look set to
push on further.

Closer to home, the Dollar Sell-off and a perception that President
Zuma is set to be terminated has seen the Rand rally to 2016 Highs.
Egypt entered a Bull Market in March and is leading the Africa Equity
Indices and is +10.95% in 2016.

Here at the Nairobi Securities Exchange, Investors will be keenly
awaiting the Full Year Earnings Release from the Exchange's bellwether
stock Safaricom on May 11th. I expect muscular Earnings from Safaricom
and my Year End Price Target is 22.50 which will underpin a positive
2016 for the Indices. EABL has surged to a 2016 Closing High since
spicing things up with the announcement of a shilling 4.50 special
dividend and is now +8.79% in 2016 and headed higher. In the
accompanying announcement re the special dividend, EABL said

''The Board is also encouraged by the strong financial outlook for the
second half of the year, ending June 30th 2016, buoyed buy robust
performance in our premium beers and spirits....''

I spoke of a bifurcation at the Stock market previously and this
bifurcation is set to accelerate with Big Caps outperforming Small
Caps. The Banking Industry remains fluid and I continue to see this
situation playing to the advantage of Tier 1 Banks. KCB is set to pick
up the pieces and to its advantage.

So if its ''Tubmans'' you are after, Stay Long the Yen, buy some
precious Metals and consider Crude Oil.

Home Thoughts

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Impossible is Nothing
Africa

“Impossible is just a big word thrown around by small men who find it
easier to live in the world they've been given than to explore the
power they have to change it. Impossible is not a fact. It's an
opinion. Impossible is not a declaration. It's a dare. Impossible is
potential. Impossible is temporary. Impossible is nothing.”

“The sky, at sunset, looked like a carnivorous flower.” ― Roberto Bolaño, 2666

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Relationships, in Bolanos world, tend to be febrile but fleeting
Africa


They sever friendships, quit jobs, abandon apartments without giving
notice, skip the return flight home, assume new identities, flee
combustive love affairs, cut off ties to everyone they have ever
known, head off into the desert, simply disappear. Relationships, in
Bolaño’s world, tend to be febrile but fleeting, yielding memories
suffused by the afterglow of emotion; his narratives are often the
testimonies of people the wanderers leave behind.

“2666” has hundreds of characters, but in a sense its protagonist is
Santa Teresa, a town in the Sonora Desert where impoverished Mexicans
labor in maquiladoras, the low-wage factories that have proliferated
in the era of globalization. Santa Teresa is modelled on Ciudad
Juárez, where, since 1993, the corpses of more than four hundred young
women—many of them mutilated—have been found in garbage containers or
vacant lots. (Almost none of these crimes have been solved.) In the
novel, a parallel massacre has taken place. The plot of “2666” is
byzantine—in a variation on “The Savage Detectives,” it hinges on the
hunt for a reclusive Prussian novelist who, admirers believe, has
hidden himself in the Sonora Desert. But, at its core, “2666” is a
testament to the unredressed evil of the murders. The fourth section,
“The Part About the Crimes,” offers a sickeningly comprehensive
account of the killings, written in the frigid tone of a forensic
report. This litany is interspliced with accounts of corrupt police
officials, one of whom jokes, “Women are like laws, they were made to
be violated.” More than three hundred pages long, it may be the
grimmest sequence in contemporary fiction.

 “the dream of our youth / the most valiant dream of all.”

“I steal into their dreams," he said. "I steal into their most
shameful thoughts, I'm in every shiver, every spasm of their souls, I
steal into their hearts, I scrutinize their most fundamental beliefs,
I scan their irrational impulses, their unspeakable emotions, I sleep
in their lungs during the summer and their muscles during the winter,
and all of this I do without the least effort, without intending to,
without asking or seeking it out, without constraints, driven only by
love and devotion.”
― Roberto Bolaño, 2666

read more





Saudi Arabia is about to attempt its own version of Mao's Great Leap Forward
Law & Politics


Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the son of the ailing King Salman and de
facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, has launched a highly ambitious plan
under which he says his country will speedily “end its addiction to
oil.” In terms of its revolutionary ambition, lack of realism and
potential for disruption, the plan has parallels with Mao Zedong’s
Great Leap Forward in 1958 which aimed to change China rapidly from an
agricultural to an industrial economy, but produced only disaster.

It is not going to work. It is not the first time the ruler of an oil
state in the Middle East believed that it would be a good idea to
build up a diversified non-oil economy paid for by oil revenues.
Saddam Hussein, already effective ruler of Iraq in the late 1970s,
made a brief effort before the Iran-Iraq war to build factories and
irrigation schemes, the wreckage of which can still be seen on the
outskirts of Baghdad. But the most striking – and ominous - precedent
for Prince Mohammed’s reforms is not Mao or Saddam, but the Shah of
Iran in the five years before the revolution in 1979. Using Iran’s oil
revenues, he proposed in 1974 for Iran’s economy to grow by a quarter
every year under an expanded version of the Fifth Five Year
Development Plan. The outcome of the Shah’s manic desire for growth
and modernisation was destabilisation and popular rage that
contributed significantly to his overthrow.

But sceptics say that turning the value of Saudi Arabia’s main asset
into a liquid form is also be highly convenient for the Saudi royal
family. They may calculate that the political and economic tide has
permanently turned against them. If the Saudi royals ever have to flee
like the Shah, then it is much in their interests to have their wealth
in a form that they can be held abroad or swiftly moved to safety.

Conclusions

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.@realdonaldTrump Is Riding a Warped 1980s Nostalgia Leonid Bershidsky
Law & Politics


The 1980s have been making a comeback -- and the nostalgia goes far
beyond shoulder pads or neon heels and big hair. In the U.S., it seems
to be about a search for lost identity -- and emotions that are
familiar to me as someone who lived through that decade in Moscow.

On the conservative site Townhall, Nick Adams recently argued that
Donald Trump's success in the presidential race has a distinctly '80s
flavor:

"Trump is in many ways the 1980's retro-renaissance man who has come
back to save America and restore it to its greatness, by killing
political correctness and resurrecting 1980s sentiments and values.
Might is right, and America is always right. And he's bringing out all
of the 1980's hotshots out of hibernation to Make America Great Again
with their last breath. Clint Eastwood, Bruce Willis, Kirstie Alley,
Jean Claude Van Damme, Gary Busey, and countless others. It seems they
are all coming out of their collective hibernation to support the man
who can make America what it once was: great again, just like it was
in the 80s."

It's hard for me to share Adams's warm feelings for that decade. I
spent it on the losing side. Life in the other superpower was
increasingly squalid, and the future was murky. We loved Willis and
Van Damme, too, though: We'd seen them on pirated, officially
disapproved videotapes. Many of us wished we'd been in the America
that Adams remembers, and many of us ended up there during the
following decade. Yet nobody could win an election in Russia on '80s
nostalgia: President Vladimir Putin's reference points are the more
idyllic 1960s and 1970s.

It gives me a certain sense of vindication, then, that the U.S. -- or
at least its Republican part -- is being forced to live through a mild
reenactment of our 1980s, not its own.

Thirty years ago, Saudi Arabia was directly responsible for our
squalor: Worried about the Soviet Union's increasing oil production,
the kingdom decided to use its low production cost as a weapon and
pushed prices through the floor. It worked: The Soviet Union had come
to depend on the commodity for most of its hard currency, and when the
petrodollar river dried up, it choked.

The Saudis are trying to do something similar now -- but this time, to
the U.S. Economists expected this "Back to the Future" scenario to
have a net positive effect on the U.S. economy, but growth is slowing
and investment is down. The first quarter's 0.5 percent growth looks
sickly, and American voters across party lines don't see themselves
benefiting. The U.S. economy is performing worse than expected: The
Bloomberg consensus forecast for the first quarter promised 1.9
percent growth.

Russia, of course, has been affected by low oil prices, too, and its
economy is in recession. But it's doing better than expected.
Economists polled by Bloomberg predicted Russia's gross domestic
product would drop 2.5 percent in the first quarter; it was down 1.4
percent.

And performance relative to expectations matters. Winning or losing
is, to a great extent, a matter of perception.

The current version of the Cold War is much more of a propaganda farce
than the original of the 1980s, because a direct military
confrontation between the U.S. and Russia is much harder to imagine.
In the war of words, Russia is indeed holding its own. Trump seldom
misses an opportunity to hold up the Russian autocrat as an example of
a true leader, "highly respected within his own county and beyond" --
and to assail President Barack Obama as a weakling.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1608
Dollar Index 92.15
Japan Yen 105.57
Swiss Franc 0.9490
Pound 1.4750
Aussie 0.7617
India Rupee 66.255
South Korea Won 1138.22
Brazil Real 3.5003
Egypt Pound 8.8783
South Africa Rand 14.2376

Dollar/yen now -4.5% this week. This will be its biggest fall
since Oct 2008, second biggest since LTCM in Oct 1998:
https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/726071107523121152

January 11th 2016 one of my conviction trades for 2016 is to buy the
yen against just about everything.
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1101.pdf

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 92.15 [Support busted wide open]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

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The U.S. currency fell for a third month, the longest stretch since before it embarked on two-year, 20 percent rally in July 2014.
World Currencies


The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10
major peers, slipped 0.6 percent as of 5 p.m. in New York, and touched
the lowest level since May. The 1.9 percent drop in April would be the
third straight, the longest streak since April 2014.

The dollar has fallen 5.9 percent plunge this year, propelling
investors into emerging markets, the riskiest and most volatile sector
of the $5.3 trillion-a-day market that often offers the biggest
potential gains. Leading this week’s advance was the 3 percent rally
in Brazil’s real, a nation unraveling amid the worst economic
recession in a century and an increasing likelihood its president will
be impeached.

read more



Forget Justin Trudeau, It's Oil That's Driving This Loonie Rally
World Currencies


The 120-day correlation between Canada’s currency and oil has climbed
to 0.67, up from 0.52 four months ago, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg. A reading of 1 implies two markets trade in lockstep.

As recently as December, the Canadian dollar and crude were the most
highly correlated among all major currencies and their country’s key
commodity export. While the loonie’s link to the commodity has since
been topped by the Russian ruble, it’s still more closely associated
to oil than Mexico’s peso or Norway’s krone, and more than Brazil’s
real is to soy beans, or Australia’s dollar to iron ore.

The currency’s Sharpe ratio, which measures returns adjusted for price
swings, shows the Canadian dollar had the best results among 16 major
currencies tracked by Bloomberg in the span. Citigroup Economic
Surprise Indexes show Canada is second-best behind Switzerland based
on above-forecast economic reports. The benchmark Standard &
Poor’s/TSX Composite Index of Canadian stocks has gained almost 7
percent this year.

The loonie rally follows an unprecedented slump in the currency. After
reaching parity with the U.S. dollar three years ago, it plummeted 25
percent to touch a 13-year low in January as oil prices collapsed. It
was the longest, deepest rout since Canada lifted the currency’s peg
to the U.S. dollar in 1971.

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The Bloomberg Precious Metals Subindex jumped 23 percent in 2016 amid renewed demand for stores of value.
World Currencies


Gold futures touched $1,299 an ounce on Friday on the Comex in New
York, the highest since January 2015. Silver also reached the highest
in more than a year. The advance added to a rally across raw
materials. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks returns for 22
components, posted its biggest monthly advance in more than five
years.

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David Ingles Best-performing commodities YTD
Commodities


Silver +29%
Gasoline +26%
Brent, Gasoil +25%
Heat Oil +24%
US Crude, Gold +22%
Platinum 20%
Soybeans +17%

Gold 6 month INO 1299.65 [1,350 next?]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d6

Silver May 2016 Chart INO 17.656 [Bullish]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_YI.K16.E&v=dmax&t=f&a=50&w=1

Brent oil up nearly 80% from January low, closing in on $50. [SELL]
https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/726025398677561344

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Businessman and Dictator Face Off as Congo Lurches Toward Abyss NYT
Africa


LUBUMBASHI, Democratic Republic of Congo — Sitting in his palatial
living room amid lots of marble and white leather, Moïse Katumbi gives
off an unmistakable air of being content with his place in the world.

A former governor in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s influential
Katanga region and a flamboyantly successful tycoon, Mr. Katumbi has
money, power, the adoration of the masses, solid political skills and
a bit of an aura. He even has his own professional soccer team, the
Bulldozers.

Of 80 million Congolese, analysts say, Mr. Katumbi is best positioned
to be Congo’s next president if the election is fair and if the
current president, who faces term limits, steps down this year.

But those are two big ifs.

Once again, Congo is lurching toward a political abyss, and Mr.
Katumbi will be a crucial figure in what happens next.

Congo’s next election is supposed to be in November, and its
Constitution requires that President Joseph Kabila leave office. But
as Mr. Kabila’s counterparts across the continent have shown, to
varying degrees of success or chaos, constitutions can be tinkered
with or simply ignored.

And Congo is no Burundi, its diminutive neighbor driven into turmoil
after the president clung to power. Congo is the biggest country in
sub-Saharan Africa. When it split open in the 1990s, its civil war
dragged in many neighbors, swallowing nearly a third of the continent.
Millions are believed to have died.

Because of the stakes, Congo’s usually fractured political opposition
has shown an unparalleled unity, with opposition figures coalescing
around Mr. Katumbi.

On a recent morning, as he sat in his mansion with exotic birds
chirping in the backyard, Mr. Katumbi delicately danced around the
question of his presidential ambitions.

“At the moment, everything is a bit stuck,” he said.

He said that he could not formally announce his intentions until the
opposition agreed to hold a primary, a first for Congo, and that his
top concern was not about his own prospects, but about democracy.

Many observers believe this is Congo’s most interesting, and
dangerous, political juncture in decades. If Mr. Kabila leaves power,
the country will have its first open presidential race since an army
officer named Joseph-Desiré Mobutu seized power more than 50 years
ago.

“Katumbi is the strongest competitor that Kabila has at the moment,
there is little doubt about that,” said Jason Stearns, director of the
Congo Research Group at New York University. “But the electoral race
is so uncertain at the moment that it is difficult to make
predictions.”

“You know the president don’t talk a lot,” he said.

The two men, who used to be close, seem to be opposites. Mr. Kabila,
44, is taciturn, pensive, hard to read and reclusive. He is a former
soldier. He has recently gained weight, and the rare times he appears
in public, he has huge bags under his eyes. It looks as if he never
sleeps.

Mr. Katumbi, on the other hand, is a light presence. He is a chatty,
svelte, athletic 51, playing tennis every day (with the forearms to
prove it). He says he has never touched a gun, and if he did become
Congo’s president, he would be the first in five decades to arrive
without his own army.

(One of Mr. Katumbi’s favorite talking points is his success as
governor in bringing down the price of flour. He did this, he says, by
pressing mining companies to invest in local agriculture. As he puts
it, “The first thing for peace is the tummy.”)

Mr. Katumbi is a product of this. His father was a Jewish refugee from
Rhodes known as Nissim the Handsome, and his mother was a Congolese
woman from the Bemba ethnic group. Both were initially shunned by
their communities while they pursued their romance.

With that same independent streak, Mr. Katumbi married a woman of
Burundian descent. Often, as governor, he clashed with the authorities
in Kinshasa.

“Katumbi is not afraid to cut corners to fulfill his populist
promises,” said a leaked State Department cable. “Whether he actually
has the public good or his own interests in mind is, however,
debatable.”

One French journalist who wrote about the deplorable conditions in a
Lubumbashi hospital said that Mr. Katumbi’s “efforts sometimes fall
like soufflés.”

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Burundi economy battered by year-long crisis FRANCE 24
Africa


A year into a political crisis which has claimed about 500 lives,
driven a quarter of a million into exile and prompted Western donors
to suspend government aid, Burundi's economy is on the ropes.

The economy shrank by 7.4 percent in 2015, taking Burundi from the
world's third-poorest country to the poorest, with a GDP of $315.20
dollars per inhabitant, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The effects of the recession are plain to see in the capital
Bujumbura, where most hotels have gone to the wall or laid off most of
their staff.

"The hotel sector is a disaster zone," said the owner of a big hotel
in the capital, which had only two guests during the first four months
of the crisis.

"I only kept a tenth of my staff because it's impossible to just shut
up shop given the investments I've made and the bank loans I took
out," the hotelier told AFP.

Thierry Vircoulon, of the International Crisis Group, said that while
the formal economy, centred on Bujumbura, was badly squeezed by the
crisis, "the subsistence-style rural economy, which is largely
non-monetised" had been less affected.

But rural dwellers, who have already been hit by falling production of
coffee -- the country's main export, are also feeling the pinch as
funding for health, education and infrastructure programmes dry up.

"So far the Burundian government has been living by its wits, cutting
social programmes, going cap in hand to friendly countries or just
printing money, but the situation is becoming critical," a senior UN
official based in Bujumbura said.

Conclusions

"The question is how long Nkurunziza's administration can hold on," he added.

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Barclays Africa Sees Bad Loans Rising as Economy Deteriorates
Africa


Barclays Group Africa Ltd., the lender being sold by its London-based
parent, forecast that its credit-loss ratio will worsen as customers
fall behind in loan repayments and economic growth in its main South
African market deteriorates.

A continued focus on increasing revenue and managing expenses “should
improve our cost to income ratio further,” helping the lender to
maintain a return on equity, a key measure of profit, for 2016 at
levels similar to last year, Johannesburg-based Barclays Africa said
in a statement on Thursday. The company expects to maintain “low
single-digit loan growth” with the rest of its African operations
expanding faster than South Africa, it said.

Barclays Plc plans to sell down its 62 percent stake in the African
unit, formerly known as Absa, to boost capital. Bob Diamond, who ran
Barclays before his 2012 ouster during the Libor scandal, this week
confirmed that he and investors including U.S. private-equity giant
Carlyle are working together on a potential bid for the
Johannesburg-based lender.

The London-based parent company on Wednesday said that it is “pleased
with the level of indicative interest” in the African business and
that it is working closely with local management, including on the
planning for the “operational separation of the two businesses.”

read more



South Africa All Share Bloomberg +4.47% 2016
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.2376

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +10.95% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -12.5% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -8.33% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Mobile Airtime Touts Show Congo's Franc Is Set to Weaken Further @business
Africa


Mobile-phone airtime touts on the streets of the Democratic Republic
of Congo’s capital have accepted what analysts reckon is inevitable --
the franc is going to fall further.

The currency of Africa’s biggest copper producer has weakened 2.3
percent this year to 949 against the dollar, after trading little
changed all of last year, central bank data shows. With the drop in
copper and oil prices reducing the supply of foreign exchange,
analysts including Glenn Tshiany, head of global markets at Standard
Bank Congo, reckon it’s only a matter of time before it hits 1,000.

The franc is already changing hands at 978 per dollar on the parallel
market on the streets of Kinshasa. Traders who sell mobile credit to
pedestrians in the city have been selling $1 of air time at 1,200
francs for the past two weeks, said Anderson Katende, a trader at an
Airtel kiosk on Ave Lt.-Colonel Lukusa.

Air-time rates in Kinshasa are “a leading indicator in this market of
where things will eventually go,” Tshiany said by phone from the city.
“In the next month, I definitely think we will reach 1,000. The
central bank rate is lagging from where the market is currently
trading.”

Economic growth driven by a boom in commodity prices, coupled with a
prudent fiscal policy, have enabled Congolese Prime Minister Matata
Ponyo Mapon to keep the franc between 910 and 930 to the dollar since
2011. Presidential elections are scheduled for November and a
depreciation in the franc risks eroding civil servant salaries and
public spending power at a critical moment for the ruling coalition.

The intervention has eased pressure on the franc, but the currency is
unlikely to stabilize or strengthen until there’s a sustained increase
in copper and oil prices, said Willy Mulamba, head of global markets
at Citigroup Inc.’s Congo unit. The price of copper has fallen 18
percent over the past year, while oil is down 27 percent. Congo
produced 995,805 metric tons of copper last year and pumps about
25,000 barrels of oil per day.

The government has said it will continue to protect the franc, but the
gradual erosion of its own reserves is limiting its options.
Foreign-exchange reserves stood at $1.18 billion on April 21,
equivalent to 5.2 weeks of import cover, compared with $1.5 billion at
the start of the year, according to the prime minister’s office.

read more




Vehicles shipped to Kenya increased by 40% to almost 110,000 a year between 2010 and 2015. Economist
Kenyan Economy


But a drastic additional tax, which came into effect at the start of
December, has already slashed imports by a third—bad news for buyers,
and also for government coffers, which as a result of the falling
numbers could end up with less cash.

read more


EABL 27-APR-2016 :: Announcement of Special Dividend
Kenyan Economy


EABL has announced a special payout of Sh4.50 per share that will see
Diageo, which owns 50.03 per cent of the brewer (395.6 million of the
firm’s issued shares) get a tidy payout.
The regional brewer sold off Central Glass Industries (CGI) to South
Africa’s Consol Glass in September for Sh4.5 billion.
“To reward the shareholders, the Board considers it appropriate to
distribute this special dividend in recognition of additional income
EABL received from the sale of CGI,” the brewer said in a statement.
“The special dividend is payable in addition to the interim dividend
that was declared for the half year to December and is in addition to
any final dividend that the board may declare following the
announcement of full-year results.”

EABL share price data here @Diageo_news +8.79% in 2016

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzQ%3D

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           297.00
Total Shares Issued:          790774356.00
Market Capitalization:        234,859,983,732
EPS:             11.31
PE:                 26.260

read more


Kenya's ARM Cement gets $140 mln equity investment from CDC Group
Kenyan Economy


Kenya's ARM Cement said on Friday it had secured a $140 million
investment from British development finance institution CDC Group.

read more


Crown Paints Kenya Ltd reports FY PBT 2016 +43.052% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           50.00
Total Shares Issued:  71,181,000
Market Capitalisation:
EPS:               0.65
PE:

FY Revenue 6.737108b vs. 6.039061b +11.559%
FY Other income 233.954m vs. 144.397m +63.021%
FY Profit before tax 216.697m vs. 151.481m +43.052%
FY Profit for the year 30.748m vs. 19.715m +55.962%
FY Other comprehensive income 3.494m vs. 3.257m +7.277%
FY Total comprehensive income 34.242m vs. 22.972m +49.060%
Basic and diluted EPS 0.65 vs. 0.83 -21.687%
Total assets 4.539148b vs. 3.852814b +17.814%
Cash & cash equivalents at the end of the year 52.372m vs. 172.132m -69.575%
Dividend 0.60 vs. 1.75 -65.714%

Total Number of Shares : 71,181,000

Conclusions


FY Headline revenue Growth of +11.559% is a better than fair outcome.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +0.84% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.78% 2016

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,009.26 +19.06 +0.48%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Economy grew by 5.6 percent last year, slightly faster than the
5.3 percent growth recorded in 2014 Agriculture, which contributes
nearly a quarter of Kenya's economic output, grew 5.6 percent in 2015
from 3.5 percent the previous year.
Kenya was actually a ''sweet spot'' in the El-Nino Weather Phenomenon
and thats why I oftentimes mention that monetary Policy forecasting
requires some meteorological skills as well.
This GDP Outcome is a positive one especially given the travails
elsewhere. I expect South Africa and Nigeria to expand at 0% in 2016,
for example.
The Nairobi All Share edged 0.46 points lower to close at 146.47.
The NSE20 Index pushed +13.35 points higher to close at 4022.61.
Equity Turnover clocked 416.893m.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom [which will release FY Earnings May 11th Pre-Opening Bell]
eased back -0.88% to close at 16.95 and traded 2.308m shares.
Safaricom is +3.98% in 2016 and has plenty of scope to the Upside. My
Year End Price Target is 22.50.

According to a report carried in the Business Daily, Chris Kirubi [who
is among the top shareholders of Kenya Airways] is calling ''for the
sacking of its top management''

The Report in the Business Daily says 'He also wants the KQ board
disbanded saying its recent decisions “like the selling of assets at
throw-away prices” has reduced its operating capacity'

Mr. Kirubi might be emitting a Signal in the Noise.

Kenya Airways rallied +2.33% to close at 4.40 and was trading at 4.50
+4.65% at the Finish. Kenya Airways traded 109,600 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 41.50 and traded 2.006m
shares. KCB sits 2.35% below a 2016 closing High and will push through
there in due course.
It was indeed a pleasure to catch up with the CEO Dr. James Mwangi of
Equity Bank this morning and the Company Secretary Mary Wangari, at
their Offices and on the day that Equity closed unchanged at 40.00 and
was the most actively traded share at the Exchange with 3.865m shares
worth 154.629m changing hands. Anecdotally, my Friend Mr. Herve Gogo
who resides in Kinshasa informs me that they have moved with despatch
in the DRC.

I thank Dr. James Mwangi for the time

https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu/status/727399191085993984

Standard Chartered which had been egregiously marked down since the
Bonus shares were credited, rebounded +3.62% to close at 200.00 and
traded 900 shares. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 21 versus 1
signalling todays rebound has legs.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL which had rallied +8.79% to close at 2016 High through this
morning eased back -1.01% to close at 294.00. The Special Dividend has
juiced the share and I expect it to vault 300.00 in short order.

I attended ARM Cement's announcement Friday where the FY Earnings
Release [ARM Cement reported a pre-tax loss of 3.54 billion Kenyan
shillings ($35 million) for the full year 2015 due to foreign exchange
losses after notching up a profit of 2.02 billion shillings in 2014]
was superseded by the news that ARM Cement had secured a $140 million
investment from CDC Group. ARM rallied 5% on the news to close at
36.75 a 9 week High. ARM traded 23,700 shares.

Crown Paints issued their FY 2015 Earnings Friday where FY Revenue
posted a double digit % increase +11.559% to clock 6.737108b, FY
Profit before tax surged +43.052% but FY EPS retreated -21.687%
because of more shares being in issue.  The Full Year Dividend was
slashed -65.714%. These were better than Fair Results. Crown Paints
firmed 3% to close at 51.50.

Home Africa issued a Notice today 03-MAY-2016 and announced that their
FY 2015 Financial Results will be published by Friday 6th May 2016,
which is a week late. Home Africa closed unchanged at 1.55.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2016
 
 
 
 
RICH PODCASTS
08-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 8th April 2011
07-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 7th April 2011
06-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 6th April 2011
05-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 5th April 2011
04-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 4th April 2011
01-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 1st April 2011
 
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