22nd October 2014
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 21st of October 2014

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20-OCT-2014 Ebola Severity Lies in Speed of Infections [the escape velocity [vitesse de liberation]]

its difficult to avoid the Ebola Virus especially since the Cases in
the US which popped the Virus big. Many Folks dismiss concerns by
comparing the Optics of Influenza numbers versus the Ebola  numbers
and dismiss Ebola as just a Blip on the Global Radar. I have recently
discovered an outstanding contemporary intellectual thinker called
Paul Virilio who said the following about Electronic Money

‘The effectiveness of electronic money lies in its mass, which
increase its velocity of circulation.’'

Virilio claims that as the ‘last post-industrial resource,
acceleration exceeds accumulation...the escape velocity [vitesse de
liberation] becomes the equivalent of profit.’

Virilio believes that ''Acceleration and Speed'' are the defining
characteristics of our new World. So my first point about the Ebola
Virus is that it is not about the absolute number of Ebola Cases, it
is about its ''escape Velocity'' Viruses exhibit non-linear and
exponential characteristics. WHO recently predicted that  the number
of Ebola cases in three West African nations may jump to between 5,000
and 10,000 a week by Dec. 1 as the deadly viral infection spreads. My
Point is that we have not entered the Parabolic Phase yet when the
escape velocity is at its fastest and therefore, the comparison with
Malaria and Influenza might make a nice Infographic but its an
irrelevant comparison.

Another point to consider is the invisible case-load of Ebola Cases
which are not being captured by the Surveillance System. WHO
previously spoke of ''shadow-zones'' We have not received any data
since late September around the Ebola [different mutation] outbreak in
DR Congo. I have a Friend who is invested heavily in the DRC and he
informs me Ebola Deaths in the DRC top 500 deaths.

Furthermore, Researchers have identified more than 300 new viral
mutations in the latest strain of Ebola, according to research
published in the journal Science.

“It is a numbers game, the more cases you have the more likely there
are going to be mutations that could change the virus” in a
significant way, said David Sanders, a professor of biological
sciences at Purdue University who studies Ebola. “The more it
persists, the more likely we are going to be thrown a curve.”

The Curve Professor David Sanders is speaking to is that Ebola,
contrary to CDC "protocol", in fact airborne. Or as, an article posted
by CIDRAP [The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at
the University of Minnesota] defines it, "aerosolized."

Authorities insist that nurse Pham was wearing protective gear –
gloves, mask, apron and shield when she treated Duncan. So how did she
contract the deadly virus? No one seems to really know. CDC officials
are blaming an error in hospital procedures, claiming that it’s a
“breach of protocol”, and yet, they still have no idea what that
breach actually was.

If that’s the case, how do they know it was a breach to begin with?

The CIDRAP report says

''We believe there is scientific and epidemiologic evidence that Ebola
virus has the potential to be transmitted via infectious aerosol
particles both near and at a distance from infected patients, which
means that healthcare workers should be wearing respirators, not

The non-linear and exponential rate of mutation of the Ebola Virus
gives the Tail Risk real bite.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book Black Swan addresses the Tail Risk
and describes it as follows;

The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare
events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history,
science, finance, and technology.

The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare
events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small

The psychological biases that make people individually and
collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of
the rare event in historical affairs.

The Rare Event or Tail Risk is that the Ebola has already or will
mutate into a virus that has the potential to be transmitted via
infectious aerosol particles both near and at a distance from infected

The World Bank recently highlighted two scenarios: impacts on the
region in the case of “Low Ebola”, in which the disease is contained
by early 2015, cases stay around 20,000 and economic activity
gradually increases; and “High Ebola”, in which the disease is
contained more slowly, cases reach 200,000 and the outbreak worsens
significantly into mid-2015.

In the “Low Ebola” scenario, according to the report, lost GDP for
West Africa as a whole is estimated at $2.2 billion in 2014 and $1.6
billion in 2015. In the case of “High Ebola”, estimates suggest $7.4
billion in lost GDP for 2014 and $25.2 billion in 2015. Both cases
assume at least some spread to other countries.

The Black Swan Outcome is considerably worse than the World Bank's
''High Ebola'' prediction.

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@wikileaks US Army withheld promise from Germany #Ebola virus wouldn't be weaponized #WikiLeaks cable

"For Official Use Only"

Against the background of our partnership in the area of
non-proliferation and our excellent cooperation in the
matters of export controls, we would like to bring the
following issue to the attention of your government.
A German firm has applied for the approval of the export of
184 genetic elements with nucleic acid sequences of viruses
for the production of recombinant viruses.  The viruses will
be used in optical imaging to identify host factors required
for viral replication.   The recipient in the USA is,
according to the enclosed end use certificate, the Department
of the Army "US Army Medical Research Institute for
Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID)" Fort Detrick, Maryland.
Specifications in English about the goods, the recipient and
end use can be seen from the end use certificate.
The goods are controlled by the Australia Group and are
subject to compulsory export approval (List position
C1C353A).  This matter concerns the complete genome of
viruses such as the Zaire Ebola virus, the Lake Victoria
Marburg virus, the Machupo virus and the Lassa virus, which
are absolutely among the most dangerous pathogens in the
world.  The delivery would place the recipient in the
position of being able to create replicating recombinant
infectious species of these viruses.
Because of the particular criticality of these goods, the
German federal government practices an exceptionally
restrictive approval policy for such exports.  An approval
here can only be issued if an improper end use in association
with the development or production of biologic weapons
approaches can be foreclosed with a probability approaching
The enclosed end use certificate is on the letterhead of the
U.S. Army.  The required official seal is missing, however.
A decision about the export has not yet been made.  Given the
foregoing, we would appreciate confirmation that the end use
certificate really is from the Department of the Army and of
the accuracy of the data contained therein.
We look forward to the continuation of our excellent
cooperation in matters of non-proliferation and export
End text of informal translation of German MFA non-paper.
4. (SBU)  Action Request.  Post requests guidance on
responding to the GOG request in the non-paper.

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

We had a lovely time at the Daphne Sheldrick Elephant Orphanage and
Hannah adopted an Elephant called Mbegu

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The flock of flamingos at Lake Nakuru in Kenya.

The brightly coloured birds congregate in their thousands,
transforming the skyline as far as the eye can see.

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Renamo rejects Mozambique vote results but leader vows 'no more war'
Law & Politics

Kobane: US drops arms and aid to Kurds battling IS


The drops of supplies provided by Kurdish authorities in Iraq were
"intended to enable continued resistance against Isil's attempts to
overtake Kobane," CentCom said in a statement. IS is also referred to
as Isil and Isis.

On Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would not
allow Kurdish fighters to receive any transfers of American arms.

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In a @BBC interview Nimr said he backed “the roar of the word against authorities rather than weapons”
Law & Politics

In Iran, the foreign ministry warned on Thursday that execution would
have “dire consequences”. It called Nimr an ayatollah, giving him the
second most senior clerical title in the Shia hierarchy. Iran, like
Saudi Arabia, uses capital punishment.

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Immediately after his sword falls, the Saudi Arabian executioner steps backwards to avoid soiling his clothes with the blood of the condemned man, whose headless body can be seen slumping over backwards in the shaky online film.
Law & Politics

Immediately after his sword falls, the Saudi Arabian executioner steps
backwards to avoid soiling his clothes with the blood of the condemned
man, whose headless body can be seen slumping over backwards in the
shaky online film.

After perfunctorily checking the white folds of his robe for flecks of
red, the executioner wipes his blade with a tissue, which he drops
onto the corpse and walks away.

A sudden surge in public executions in Saudi Arabia in the last two
months has coincided with a U.S.-led bombing campaign against Islamic
State. This has led to inevitable comparisons in Western media between
Islamic State's beheadings and those practiced in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia beheaded 26 people in August, more than in the first
seven months of the year combined. The total for the year now stands
at 59, compared to 69 for all of last year, according to Human Rights

“It’s possible the executions were used as intimidation and flexing of
muscles. It’s a very volatile time and executions do serve a purpose
when they’re done en masse,” said Madawi al-Rasheed, visiting
professor at the Middle East Centre of the London School of Economics.

“Any execution is appalling, but executions for crimes such as drug
smuggling or sorcery that result in no loss of life are particularly
egregious,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East and North Africa
director for Human Rights Watch.

Some diplomats have said the increase may be only a quirk of timing,
as the appointment of more judges has allowed courts to clear a
backlog of appeal cases, and as the rise began after the end of
Ramadan, when fewer executions traditionally occur.

But the interpretation of it as a show of strength appeared to be
reinforced last week by the sentencing to death of Sheikh Nimr
al-Nimr, a member of the Sunni-ruled kingdom's Shi'ite minority who
had backed protests in 2011.

Two other men, one of whom was younger than 18 at the time of the
protests, have also been sentenced for their part in the
demonstrations and were convicted of having thrown petrol bombs.

"If you look at the definition of what Nimr was sentenced for,
instigating sedition, it shows they want to make sure they stop any
form of activism," said Mai Yamani, a Saudi-born political analyst in

Of the 59 people executed by Oct. 16, 22 had been convicted for
smuggling drugs, according to figures compiled by Human Rights Watch
from Saudi media reports.

One Saudi man, Mohammed Bakr al-Alaawi, was put to death for sorcery
so far this year, the third such case since 2011. Although such cases
are even rarer, judges can also demand execution for adulterers or
Muslims who abandon their faith.

In the most extreme version of the Saudi death penalty, known by the
Arabic word for "crucifixion" and reserved for crimes that outrage
Saudi society, the corpse is publicly hanged in a harness from a metal
gibbet as a warning to others.

An online film dated April 2012 on the LiveLeaks website shows a man
being executed and then "crucified" in this manner, reportedly for
robbing a house and killing its occupants. A group of five men
suffered this fate in May last year in the southern province of Jizan
for a series of robberies.


Beheading Nimr-al-Nimr might well prove the spark that lights the Tinderbox.

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And then of course, the beheading of James Foley by a jihadist with a British accent went viral. There was a spookiness about the British accent.
Law & Politics

And then of course, the beheading of James Foley by a jihadist with a
British accent went viral. There was a spookiness about the British
accent which spoke to centuries of received history. IS and the likes
of Al-Shabaab have proven accomplished and frightening and frightful
exponents of the 21st century digital ecosystem. And what is so
fascinating is that their media efforts all point West. The richest
hunting ground for these new 21st century serial killers/terrorists is
among the disaffected in the Western World.

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In an era of globalisation, he argues, a nation's borders are no longer external but run through its cities
Law & Politics

Virilio is an impressive commentator on the conditioning power of the
mass media and the way in which every shattering event - from natural
catastrophes to the Columbia shuttle disaster and the attack on the
twin towers - gets world coverage and is put on a loop. Our minds are
literally besieged by these Weapons of Mass Communication (as he calls
them), creating a "panic-driven tele-reality" and resulting in an odd
kind of "emotional synchronisation ... in which terror must be
instantaneously felt by all ... on the scale of a global terrorism".
Virilio maintains that the global village has created hyperterrorism
as its "integral accident" (just as derailment is the integral
accident of a train). The Pentagon is eager to exploit the audiovisual
impact of real-time mass communication (remember Saddam's statue being
toppled?), but unfortunately so are the terrorists. The same impulse
drives contemporary art, says Virilio, and he often returns to
Stockhausen's incendiary remark that 9/11 was "the greatest work of
art ever".

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As we can see, the post-9/11 doctrine of national security rests upon a ‘pun’; ‘There is no such thing as an objectively secure world.
Law & Politics

Whether we feel secure or not is a matter of perception’— or, rather,
‘of sight’.88

“The global war on terror has acquired a life of its own,” says
intelligence analyst Patrick Lang: “It’s a self-licking ice cream


read more

Planes on Deck.
Law & Politics

The chief executive of French oil major Total, Christophe de Margerie,
was killed when a business jet collided with a snow plough during
takeoff at Moscow's Vnukovo International Airport


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.2821 The greenback traded at $1.2795 per euro from $1.28
yesterday, when it declined 0.3 percent.
Dollar Index 84.81
Japan Yen 106.35  Japan’s currency was little changed at 106.95 per
dollar, after sliding 0.9 percent during the previous two days
Swiss Franc 0.9411
Pound 1.6182
Aussie 0.8811
India Rupee 61.265
South Korea Won 1054.05
Brazil Real 2.4652
Egypt Pound 7.1484
South Africa Rand 11.0143

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said he continued to be “hawkish”
on rates but wanted “to be sensible.”

Yields on benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasuries were little changed at
2.19 percent after touching 1.86 percent last week, the lowest since
May 2013. David

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Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 84.81 [Re Enter on the Long Side]
World Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which measures the currency against a
basket of 10 counterparts, has weakened 0.8 percent so far this month
amid shifting Fed expectations before policy makers next meet Oct.

Futures traders estimate a Fed interest-rate increase at 46 percent
odds by October 2015, down from 51 percent at the end of last week.
They saw a 52 percent chance for the Fed to tighten in July as
recently as Oct. 3.

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Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.2821
World Currencies

China economy grows at slowest pace in 5 years


 China's economic growth waned to a five-year low of 7.3 percent last
quarter, raising concerns of a spillover effect on the global economy
but falling roughly in line with Chinese leaders' plans for a
controlled slowdown.

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold 6 month Chart INO 1248.65


Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 82.19


WTI for December delivery, the most-actively traded, was at $82.15 a
barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up
24 cents, at 3:30 p.m. Sydney time. The November contract, which
expires today, gained 29 cents to $83. The volume of all futures
traded was 36 percent below the 100-day average. Front-month prices
have decreased 16 percent this year.

“If OPEC doesn’t cut, the market will go lower,” David Lennox, a
resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, said by phone today.


“The U.S. won’t stop production. It’s the supply-demand scenario
affecting the market.”

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13-OCT-2014 Who Kneecapped Prices in Global Oil Markets?

My point is that Barack Obama has taken control of the crude oil
cockpit; he is in charge of the airplane. He has control of all the
instruments and it has been a wild ride for the last few weeks, which
could get a whole lot wilder.

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Crude Oil 5 day Chart INO 82.19

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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IMF Cuts Africa Growth Forecast Amid Ebola Virus, Insecurity

The International Monetary Fund reduced its growth forecast in
sub-Saharan Africa because of the outbreak of the Ebola virus in West
Africa and violence in at least five other countries.

Africa’s economy will expand 5 percent this year, about the same as in
2013, driven by infrastructure investment, a buoyant services sector
and strong agriculture production, the IMF said today in an e-mailed
statement. In April, the Washington-based fund forecast a 5.5 percent
growth rate this year.

While low-income countries will spur expansion with growth of as much
as 7 percent in 2014-2015, Antoinette Sayeh, director of the IMF’s
Africa Department, said in a statement. Ebola has killed more than
4,500 people in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone since the outbreak of
the virus in December.

“The Ebola outbreak could have much larger regional spillovers,
especially if it is more protracted or spreads to other countries,
with trade, tourism, and investment confidence severely affected,”
according to the IMF. “In Ebola-affected countries, fiscal accounts
are likely to deteriorate, and, where public debt is manageable,
fiscal deficits should be allowed to widen temporarily.”

Worsening insecurity stemming from civil wars and Islamist militant
attacks could also curb Africa’s economic growth, according to the

“The security situation continues to be difficult in Central African
Republic and South Sudan, and remains precarious in northern Mali,
northern Nigeria, and the coast of Kenya,” it said.

Domestic economic challenges may also curb growth in countries such as
South Africa that are facing electricity shortages and labor disputes,
according to the IMF.

In Ghana and Zambia, “large macroeconomic imbalances have led to
pressures on the exchange rate and inflation,” it said.

Senegal became the first country to be declared free of Ebola during
the worst-ever outbreak of the virus after no new cases were reported
in at least 42 days, the World Health Organization said Oct. 17.
Nigeria, which recorded 19 cases and seven deaths, will probably be
declared Ebola-free today, according to the WHO.

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Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa IMF

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain strong, at about 5
percent in 2014 and 53⁄4 percent in 2015. Solid growth will continue
in the lion’s share of the region’s countries, driven by sustained
infra- structure investment, buoyant services sectors, and strong
agricultural production, even as oil-related activities provide less
support. This overall positive outlook is, however, overshadowed by
the dire situation in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, where the
Ebola outbreak is exacting a heavy human and economic toll. In a few
countries, activity is facing headwinds from domestic policies,
including in South Africa, where growth is held back by electricity
bottlenecks, difficult labor relations, and low business confidence;
and in Ghana and, until recently, Zambia, where large macroeconomic
imbalances have led to pressures on the exchange rate and inflation.
This baseline scenario of solid growth is nonetheless predicated on a
number of increasingly potent downside risks being lifted.
• Ebola outbreak. The Ebola outbreak could have much larger regional
spillovers, especially if it is more pro- tracted or spreads to other
countries––with trade, tourism, and investment confidence severely
affected. In addition, the security situation continues to be
difficult in Central African Republic and South Sudan, and remains
precarious in Northern Mali, Northern Nigeria, and the coast of Kenya.
• Homegrown fiscal vulnerabilities in a few countries. Fiscal policy
remains on an expansionary footing.
In many countries, this reflects a time-bound increase to finance
infrastructure and other development spending, at appropriately
concessional terms. But in a few cases, particularly some frontier
economies, wide fiscal deficits have been driven by rising recurrent
expenditures. The risk is that the fiscal vulnerabili- ties that have
emerged will eventually push these countries into a sharp and
disorderly adjustment.
• External risks. A marked slowdown in emerging markets would weaken
demand for commodity exports from the region, with immediate negative
effects on external and fiscal positions. The ensuing decline
in activity prospects may lead to reduced appetite for investment,
with more long-term implications on the growth momentum. Relatedly, a
faster-than-expected tightening of global financial conditions could
trigger a new bout of volatility. Risk aversion from foreign investors
may lead to a reversal of sentiment toward the region and capital
outflows, putting pressure on countries with large external financing
needs, and forcing abrupt macroeconomic adjustments.
Against this backdrop, the overriding policy objective remains
sustaining high growth, but fiscal imbal- ances also need to be
addressed in a few countries. As policymakers pursue development
objectives to facilitate employment creation and inclusive growth, it
will be important to pay heed to macroeconomic con- straints.
Increasingly, this will require striking the right balance between
scaling up public investment in human capital and physical
infrastructure and maintaining debt sustainability. Meanwhile,
monetary poli- cies should continue to focus on consolidating the
reduction in inflation achieved in recent years, includ-
ing by tightening in countries where there is rapid growth and
persistent high inflation. In the few countries with acute
macroeconomic imbalances, fiscal consolidation is necessary, but
should avoid overly adverse con- sequences on the poor and vulnerable
groups. In Ebola-affected countries, fiscal accounts are likely to
deterio- rate, and, where public debt is manageable, fiscal deficits
should be allowed to widen temporarily.

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Oxfam said Ebola could become the "definitive humanitarian disaster of our generation"

Chief executive Mark Goldring warned that the world was "in the eye of a storm".

"We cannot allow Ebola to immobilise us in fear, but... countries that
have failed to commit troops, doctors and enough funding are in danger
of costing lives," he said.

The worst-ever outbreak of the deadly virus has so far killed more
than 4,500 people, mainly in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, but
isolated cases have now begun to appear in Europe and the United

"The Ebola crisis could become the definitive humanitarian disaster of
our generation," a spokesperson for the British-based charity said as
it appealed for EU foreign ministers meeting in Luxembourg on Monday
to do more

read more

The virus is extremely infectious. Experiments suggest that if one particle of Ebola enters a person’s bloodstream it can cause a fatal infection.

A sample of the Ebola now raging in West Africa has, by recent count,
18,959 letters of code in its genome; this is a small genome, by the
measure of living things. Viruses like Ebola, which use RNA for their
genetic code, are prone to making errors in the code as they multiply;
these are called mutations. Right now, the virus’s code is changing.
As Ebola enters a deepening relationship with the human species, the
question of how it is mutating has significance for every person on

There are two distinct ways a virus can travel in the air. In what’s
known as droplet infection, the virus can travel inside droplets of
fluid released into the air when, for example, a person coughs. The
droplets travel only a few feet and soon fall to the ground. The other
way a virus can go into the air is through what is called airborne
transmission. In this mode, the virus is carried aloft in tiny
droplets that dry out, leaving dust motes, which can float long
distances, can remain infective for hours or days, and can be inhaled
into the lungs. Particles of measles virus can do this, and have been
observed to travel half the length of an enclosed football stadium.
Ebola may well be able to infect people through droplets, but there’s
no evidence that it infects people by drying out or getting into the
lungs on dust particles. In 1989, a virus known today as Reston, which
is a filovirus related to Ebola, erupted in a building full of monkeys
in Reston, Virginia, and travelled from cage to cage. One possible
way, never proved, is that the virus particles hitched rides in mist
driven into the air by high-pressure spray hoses used to clean the
cages, and then circulated in the building’s air system. A rule of
thumb among Ebola experts is that, if you are not wearing biohazard
gear, you should stand at least six feet away from an Ebola patient,
as a precaution against flying droplets.

Gire and Sabeti’s group also found that the virus had started in one
person. It could have been the little boy in Meliandou, but there is
no way to tell for sure right now. After that, the swarm mutated
steadily, its code shifting as it palpated the human population. As
the virus jumped from person to person, about half the time it had a
mutation in it, which caused one of the proteins in the virus to be
slightly different. By the time the virus reached Sierra Leone,
travelling in the bodies of the women who had attended the funeral of
the faith healer, it had become two genetically distinct swarms. Both
lineages of the virus moved from the funeral into Sierra Leone.
Already, some of the mutations were making Ebola less visible to the
tests for it.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +2.9034% 2014 [7 month lows]

47,599.25 -237.44 -0.50%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 11.0153


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1478


Moody's raised Egypt's credit ratings outlook to stable from negative on Monday


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +25.833% 2014 [3 month Lows]


8,534.89 +11.02 +0.13%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -6.453% 2014 [6 month Lows]


38,662.65 +464.92 +1.22%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +3.216% 2014


2,214.28 -2.59 -0.12%

Ghana finmin says confident govt can do deal with IMF in November


"Yes I am (confident of an IMF deal). You know why I am confident?
This is not the first programme that Ghana has done. Ghana has done
about eight or nine programmes with the IMF since 1993," he told

Mozambique’s National Electoral Commission said it expects to release
final results before an Oct. 30 deadline and pledged to investigate
opposition allegations of rigging.


The state electoral administration last released collated national
results on Oct. 17. In the presidential vote, tallies from the first
51 percent of polling stations counted showed Frelimo candidate Filipe
Nyusi leading with 62 percent support, followed by Renamo’s Afonso
Dhlakama with 31 percent. Daviz Simango, leader of the Mozambique
Democratic Movement, had 7 percent.

In the parliamentary election, Frelimo had 63 percent of the vote from
the first 36 percent of polling stations counted, Renamo 27 percent
and the MDM 8 percent.

Mozambique elections: ‘Now Frelimo has to listen’


Although final results are still to be released, it’s already clear
that Mozambique’s ruling party has clung onto power by a comfortable
margin. Perhaps too comfortable – both major opposition parties are
contesting the results, alleging widespread irregularities. Even so,
Frelimo has not had it all its own way. A precipitous drop in support
means the party has lost that precious two-thirds majority in
parliament, and might just have to compromise every now and then. By

In the run-up to last week’s presidential election in Mozambique, both
main opposition parties were bullish about their prospects for
success. Renamo, the old civil war militia, thought they could win the
thing entirely, all on their own. The Mozambican Democratic Movement
(MDM), meanwhile, was focused on denying the ruling party an absolute
majority, and forcing a run-off election in which an opposition
coalition could cause an upset.

It didn’t happen like that. The Frelimo juggernaut rolled on, its
potent combination of huge funding, unlimited airtime on public
broadcasters and historical appeal proving effective enough to garner
more than half the electorate. Although official results are yet to be
released, provisional results and a parallel count from the Electoral
Observatory of Mozambique give Filipe Nyusi, the Frelimo candidate,
60% of the vote, compared to 32% for Renamo and just 8% for MDM.
Barring some kind of cataclysm, Nyusi will succeed Armando Guebuza as
the next president of Mozambique.

In most democracies, this would be cause for celebration. Sixty
percent is a pretty convincing majority. But not in Mozambique, and
not for Frelimo, for whom this represents a precipitous decline in
popularity from the 75% they garnered last time round. Nonetheless,
Frelimo are still celebrating, because it could – and perhaps should –
have been even worse. Both the MDM and Renamo have lodged complaints
with the electoral commission, alleging that the vote was fixed.
Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama went so far as to call it a “charade”,
and maintains that his party were the actual victors (granted,
Dhlakama has claimed this of every election in which he has

Even more concerning than the percentages in the presidential vote –
which, once a winner is confirmed, become irrelevant – is that this
decline is mirrored in the parliamentary election which was conducted
at the same time. The MDM were big winners here, going from eight
seats to 30 at the time of writing, with more still to be decided.
Renamo did well too, securing at least 75 compared to the 51 they held
in the last session.

This means that while Frelimo maintains a slim majority in the
National Assembly, it has lost its two-thirds majority which allowed
it to make constitutional amendments at will. And the resurgent
opposition will make it very difficult for it to simply dictate
legislation, despite that majority; to avoid stoking tensions, and to
avoid becoming even more unpopular, Frelimo will have to be seen to be
working with MDM and Renamo in parliament.

“Now Frelimo have to listen,” said Luis Job Mutembene, a senior MDM
official. He told the Daily Maverick that MDM and Renamo would work
together to keep the Frelimo government in check. “That will be the
way, the opposition must be together in the parliament. Nobody can
walk alone.”

Renamo, however, seems to have other ideas. Empowered by its sudden
surge in support – it looks to have doubled it percentage of the vote
– it wants a share of the spoils in the form of the creation of a
government of national unity, along the lines of the ones created in
Kenya or Zimbabwe, with Renamo leaders given ministries and perhaps a
vice-presidential position created for Dhlakama. In fact, it’s not
hard to see where Dhlakama may have got this idea – Raila Odinga, who
became prime minister in Kenya’s government of national unity, was the
head of the African Union observer mission in the country for these

“Nyusi will have to deal with a reinvigorated Dhlakama on steroids,
putting pressure to get more benefits,” commented Mercedes Sayagues, a
freelance journalist (and Daily Maverick contributor) who specialises
in Mozambican politics. “Renamo is looking to apply the South African
band aid, the magical ointment for all African problems – a government
of national unity! This South African export sometimes work, but
balloons government administration so everyone gets a turn to eat.”

Underpinning Renamo’s demand is the ghost of the civil war which
Renamo resuscitated earlier this year. Renamo renewed attacks on
government targets, killing scores of military personnel as well as
civilians in the process, and Dhlakama retreated to his military base
in the bush. He only returned to electoral politics when the president
gave in to his demands, and Frelimo will be desperate to avoid a
repeat performance. Not that they’ll roll over quietly.

“Clearly Frelimo will not accept a unity government,” said political
analyst Joseph Hanlon in the Mozambique Political Process Bulletin.
“Its bottom line in the 1990-92 Rome peace talks was that Renamo had
to accept the legitimacy of the government and constitution, which
Dhlakama finally agreed. But the importance of the Kenya example is
that there was high level international mediation, Odinga was finally
given a senior post, and the government was hugely expanded to create
relatively unimportant ministerial and vice-ministerial posts for
Odinga's party. Dhlakama hopes that diplomats will put pressure on
Frelimo and the government to make major concessions, even if not
granting a unity government.” DM

read more

Banco Espirito Santo Angola ‘Isolated Case,’ KPMG Says

Banco Espirito Santo Angola, whose loan losses prompted the African
country’s central bank to order it to raise capital, is an exception
in an otherwise robust financial industry there, said Vitor
Ribeirinho, head of audit at KPMG in Portugal and Angola.

“It looks like an isolated case,” Ribeirinho told reporters in Lisbon
today, adding that plans by the central bank to carry out an
asset-quality review of all lenders operating in Angola was “normal”
to ensure there are “no more surprises.”

BES Angola needs to raise at least 425.8 billion kwanzas ($4.3
billion) to re-establish its solvency and liquidity levels and enable
it to honor its commitments, Banco Nacional de Angola said today. BES
Angola is the former unit of Portugal’s Banco Espirito Santo SA, the
Portuguese lender that was bailed out in August after disclosing
potential losses on loans to its parent companies and to BES Angola.

read more

Angola says Novo Banco to get 9.9 pct stake in BES Angola

Portugal's Novo Banco - the successor to rescued lender Banco Espirito
Santo - will keep a 9.9 percent stake in BES Angola after converting
part of an interbank loan in capital, Angola's central bank said on

read more

Kenyan and Somali soldiers killed five suspected Islamic extremist bombers attempting to cross into the country from Ethiopia in a car laden with explosives and six suicide vests, a Kenyan military spokesman said Sunday.
Kenyan Economy

Bogita Ongeri said authorities recovered 100kg (220 pounds) of TNT
from the vehicle which was intercepted at Dolo, along Kenya’s border
with Ethiopia on Saturday.

Kenya Police Said to Use Shoot-to-Kill Policy to Fight Islamists


As Kenyan police seek to counter attacks by Islamist militants from
neighboring Somalia and crack down on spiraling crime, they’re
increasingly pursuing a policy of shoot first and ask questions later,
according to human rights monitors.

Law enforcement officers have committed at least 176 summary
executions so far this year compared with 143 in the same period last
year, according to the Nairobi-based rights group, the Independent
Medico-Legal Unit. It didn’t provide a breakdown of how many were
suspected militants and criminals.

Such methods risk stoking public anxiety about insecurity among the
general public and fueling sympathy for the al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab
militants among young Muslims, said Jonathan Horowitz, legal officer
at the George Soros-funded Open Society Justice Initiative.

“Extra-judicial killings are part of a tapestry of human-rights abuses
that may feel like an appropriate short-term solution, but it’s deeply
misguided because it creates more instability,” Horowitz said by phone
from Zanzibar. The violations are taking place “in the context of
Kenyans combating terrorism,” he said.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 89.05


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +17.3948% 2014 [3.0401% below a record
high set 23rd September last month]


160.42 -1.17 -0.72%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +7.166% 2014 [127 points below 5,406.39 a
more than 6 year high reached 22nd September last month]


5,279.88 -10.21 -0.19%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


East African Breweries Limited (EABL) has laid off more than 100
employees, cutting its staff costs by nearly Sh1 billion in the year
ended June.


Chief executive Charles Ireland said about 100 employees who were
working at Kenya Breweries Limited (KBL), a subsidiary of the regional
brewer were sent home.

“We made some changes in the layers of the company and the management
reporting structure, which saw us simplify and eliminate some roles,”
Mr Ireland told the Business Daily.

“The changes in the business environment also saw us let go of some
people working at the brewery. These two factors contributed to the
reduction in our cost base.”

The restructuring process cost the company Sh1.18 billion. Analysts at
Standard Investment Bank (SIB) said the retrenchment largely affected
workers who were engaged in the Senator Keg division which has been
hit hard by higher taxes.

read more

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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