|Friday 24th of March 2017
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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
Sleeping Antelope, Saharan Rock Art, Algeria, ca. 9000 BCE
I am looking forward to watching my Hannah's swimming competition today.
I said to Hannah ''Please don't treat me like a ''Leper'' when I come
over and say Hello. Sometimes I have to express my feelings.
Hannah felt I had been way too rambunctious in my greetings at her
school. Now i am terribly quiet and nod my head from far away and wait
patiently for an opening.
I am reading Paul Auster's 4321
The Music of chance by Auster made a deep impression.
“Stories only happen to those who are able to tell them.” ― Paul Auster
“We all want to believe in impossible things, I suppose, to persuade
ourselves that miracles can happen.” ― Paul Auster, The Book of
“You can't put your feet on the ground until you've touched the sky.”
― Paul Auster
“Memory is the space in which a thing happens for a second time.” ― Paul Auster
South China Sea Reefs Need Defending, China Premier Li Says
Law & Politics
China needs military equipment on reclaimed reefs in the South China
Sea to defend its trade interests in the region, Premier Li Keqiang
said, while denying his nation is militarizing the disputed waters.
“China’s facilities on Chinese islands and reefs are primarily for
civilian purposes,” Li said in a news conference on Friday in Canberra
with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. “Even if there is a
certain amount of defense equipment or facilities, it is for
maintaining freedom of navigation and overflight.”
29-MAR-2016 Countries Pay Heavy Price for Less Costly Terror Attack @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics
In the Financial Markets, there is a concept called ''Tail Risk'' -
Tail risk is the risk of an asset or portfolio of assets moving more
than 3 standard deviations from its current price. For example, in
early January, It took just 15 minutes on a Monday morning for South
Africa’s rand to plummet 9%. More than a year ago, the Swiss franc
surged almost 30 percent versus the euro after the central bank
abandoned its currency floor against the shared currency. The Examples
are numerous. If the markets are a mirror, then they are certainly
reflecting a New Normal around Volatility and Tail Risks.
Ben Bernanke was asked why people hold gold and he said: "As
protection against what we call tail risks: really, really bad
Therefore, my first Question is how big is the Tail Risk in our World
of more than 7b. Lets say 0.5% of 7b, thats 35m People! Drop that to
0.05% and you still have 3.5m People. So thats my First Point, the
absolute number of Folks who are prepared to cross the Edge is a big
''The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over''
Hunter S. Thompson
Terrorists are waging Asymmetric warfare. They cannot stand Toe-to-Toe
with a conventional Army because they would be annihilated. However,
what they are doing is exploiting an asymettric opening.
How Much do you think the Brussels operation cost the Terrorists? Not
very much, I venture.
How much do you think the reaction has cost Belgium? More than a 100x.
If You look at it through the Prism of a Return on Investment, one
return Profile looks like a Go-Go Nasdaq stock pre the Crash [if we
assume the Pipe-Line of ''Byronic'' Heroes is limitless then we have
to appreciate the Terrorist Strategy is like a Free Option] and the
State's ROI looks seriously out of whack, its too expensive, it stalls
the entire Economy and more of the State's resources are diverted into
Trump Data Gurus Leave Long Trail of Subterfuge, Dubious Dealing
Law & Politics
Last fall, the political consulting firm Cambridge Analytica gained
fame as the group of nerdy British data scientists that helped Donald
Trump get elected. The firm says it’s able to use its “psychographic
data models” to sway undecided voters by targeting people’s social
media profiles and serving up messages and ads based on their
Cambridge Analytica now hopes to leverage that success—and its ties to
Trump—to do more business with the U.S. government. Working from
offices just blocks from the White House, it’s been pitching itself to
defense and national security agencies. In February it signed a
$500,000 U.S. State Department contract to fight radicalization of
young people abroad.
While Cambridge Analytica has faced scrutiny before over whether its
data models actually work, a closer look at the past practices of its
London-based affiliate, SCL Group Ltd., reveals a corporate DNA less
predisposed to dazzling technologies to sway voters than to using
old-fashioned tricks and political subterfuge.
In Latvia, SCL said it ran a campaign in 2006 designed to stoke
tensions between Latvians and ethnic Russian residents: “In essence,
Russians were blamed for unemployment and other problems affecting the
economy,” an SCL document said. Nix confirms the firm’s role, saying
that its research found that such tensions would “influence voting
According to documents seen by Bloomberg, SCL says it helped a
candidate in Trinidad by spraying graffiti slogans that appeared to be
the work of young Trinidadians. “The client was then able to ‘adopt’
related policies and claim credit for listening to a ‘united youth,’ ”
SCL documents show. Nix acknowledges advocating the use of “street
media” such as graffiti and fly posters and says it’s “normal election
practice in many of the Caribbean islands.” The work was for the
United National Congress, which didn’t respond to requests for
SCL’s original description of its work in Nigeria echoes some of those
concerns. According to a 2016 version of its website, SCL advised the
PDP to try to dissuade opposition supporters from voting. This was
achieved, the website said, “by organizing anti-poll rallies on the
day of the election.” SCL later revised its website to say it “advised
its client to focus on discrediting their opponent’s electoral policy
platform … by organizing rallies on the day of the election to
highlight those shortcomings.”
Nix graduated from the elite boarding school Eton College, as did
SCL’s 55-year-old founder, Nigel Oakes. Oakes says on SCL’s website
that he “was educated” at University College London, but there’s no
record he studied there, says a university spokesman. Nix says Oakes
attended UCL “in a private capacity.” Oakes also says he worked with
Adrian Furnham, a UCL psychology professor, in 1989 as part of a group
studying the “psychology of influence,” which he used as the
philosophical underpinning of SCL’s methods.
Cocoa Slump Testing Top Producer Is Deja Vu for 80s Traders
The more than 30 percent drop in London benchmark prices from a
six-year high in July has parallels with a 1980s crisis that saw
farmers’ payments shrink by half and bankrupted the marketing system.
Like then, they’ll see sharp cuts, with a reduction for the smaller of
two annual harvests starting next month from the current 1,100 CFA
francs ($1.80) a kilogram of beans.
"On today’s price, the farmer price would probably be around 700 CFA
to 800 CFA francs," said Jonathan Parkman, co-head of agriculture at
Marex Spectron Group, a follower of the market for more than 30 years.
"It could be vastly different from that depending on what the
political agenda is in Ivory Coast. It’s way more political than just
doing the maths."
The current system, which aims to protect 800,000 cocoa farmers from
swings in global futures markets, was set up in 2012 in a move that
ended more than a decade of laissez-faire policies. The shift was a
condition for International Monetary Fund debt relief.
Under the changes, part of the crop is sold before the harvest starts
to ensure more stable prices for growers. The regulator Le Conseil
Cafe Cacao, or CCC, sells as much as 80 percent of the nation’s larger
crop before the season starts, setting prices for farmers based on
Like the system that operated in most of the 1980s and 1990s, it
relies on funds accumulated when prices are high to support farmer
payments during downturns. But after four years of a rising market, a
slump beginning in mid-2016 is bringing the arrangement to its knees.
"Until mid-2016, the CCC had a fairly easy time," said Charlotte King,
an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit. "Cocoa prices were
high, the CFA franc was weak, and profitability throughout the supply
chain was relatively robust. The latest crisis has exposed its
The regulator faces losses of more than 200 billion CFA francs due to
defaults, a person familiar with the matter said this week. That’s
more than the 170 billion CFA francs the nation had set aside as of
Dec. 31 for market slumps in its Reserve Fund held by the Central Bank
of West African States, according to the government. Ivory Coast also
has access to some stabilization funds in domestic banks.
"The response from the CCC to the current pressures in the cocoa
market has been slow and lackluster," EIU’s King said. "Ivory Coast’s
cocoa industry is notoriously secretive. Even with drastic reform, it
will take a long time to really change this."
"An indebted Africa cannot be a rising Africa," Akinwumi Adesina FT
“An indebted Africa cannot be a rising Africa,” Akinwumi Adesina, head
of the African Development Bank, told a gathering of the region’s
heads of state, senior ministers and leading financiers last year.
That warning is acquiring greater weight as government debt burdens
tick up in many African countries on the back of a rising dollar, low
commodity prices, rapid borrowing during the low interest rate era and
The problem is not unique to Africa. Between 2014 and 2016, repayments
of foreign debt by developing countries as a proportion of government
revenues rose from an average of 6.7 per cent to 9.7 per cent,
according to an analysis of 122 countries by the Jubilee Debt
Campaign. For many, the proportion is much higher.
The JDC — which helped orchestrate debt forgiveness after the debt
crises of the 1980s and 1990s — says debt repayments by this measure
are at their highest since 2007 and have reached dangerous levels. It
warns that “a new debt crisis has begun in the global south” led by
creditors hungry for yield after interest available from government
debt in the developed world fell to zero or less.
“In countries where debt crises have arisen, the danger is that the
International Monetary Fund and others will bail out reckless lenders,
increasing debt burdens and leading to years of economic stagnation,
just as in Greece,” says Tim Jones, economist at JDC. “Instead,
reckless lenders should be made to shoulder some of the costs of
recent economic shocks by accepting lower repayments.”
In much of Africa, memories of the debt crisis remain particularly
painful, as IMF-led structural adjustments often compounded economic
Of the 20 countries with the highest level of foreign debt payments to
government revenue, eight are in Africa including top-placed Angola,
where 44 per cent of revenues are spent on debt service, according to
the Jubilee Debt Campaign.
One factor Africa’s indebted countries have in common is sharp
devaluations of their currencies against the US dollar. Since
mid-2014, the Mozambique metical is down 56 per cent against the
dollar, the Angolan kwanza 41 per cent and the Ghanaian cedi 36 per
cent, for example.
But while campaigners are sounding the alarm, the consensus among
market economists is: not yet.
“Debt levels and burdens are definitely up. This is worrying but it is
nothing like the 1980s and 90s, when it was common for countries’
debts to be many times GDP,” says John Ashbourne, Africa economist at
Capital Economics, a London-based consultancy.
“All the US dollar borrowing [by African governments] has freaked
people out, but in fact it is still very small compared to the
economic output of Africa as a whole.”
The impact of rising US interest rates is also likely to be much less
damaging than it was as recently as the “taper tantrum” of 2013, when
investors dumped emerging market debt after the US said it would begin
reining in its expansionary monetary policies.
Communication by the US Federal Reserve has been much clearer, bond
prices have adjusted to take account of its guidance on interest rate
rises this year, and Africa’s big currency adjustments against the
dollar have already happened.
Despite some isolated upsets — such as Mozambique’s tuna bond debacle
and its failure to disclose more than $1bn of government-backed loans
— recent borrowing has been spent in large part on much-needed
projects to boost economic output, such as upgrades to power grids and
“There is a cost to that, but there is also a tangible benefit that
will not necessarily be borne out in the short-term numbers,” Mr
It is also the case that many African governments have more financing
options than they did in the late 20th century, and more experience
managing refinancing needs when times get lean.
"Trump was supposed be the jobs president," "Looks like he'll be the biggest job killer Nairobi has ever seen."
Trump’s “skinny” budget blueprint, released by the White House last
week, aims to slash the State Department and U.S. Agency for
International Development (USAID) budgets by close to 30 percent,
while eliminating several executive agencies, including the U.S.
African Development Foundation, which funds grassroots development
projects in 30 African countries. The cuts are supposed to partially
offset a $54 billion increase in defense spending.
Others in Nairobi’s massive aid worker community — the city serves as
a hub for operations across East Africa — are feeling jittery about
their jobs. Some, USAID contractors especially, are brushing up their
“Trump was supposed be the jobs president,” one contractor who works
on a USAID-funded project said only half in jest. “Looks like he’ll be
the biggest job killer Nairobi has ever seen.”
Nigeria FX traders widen spreads after black market naira rally Reuters
The central bank has been intervening on the official market in recent
weeks to narrow the official currency spread with the black market
It offered to sell $100 million in currency forwards on Thursday.
Bid-offer spread widened as much as 15 naira on the black market on
Thursday after the currency gained 4.9 percent on Wednesday to a
seven-month high. It firmed to as much as 385 on the black market.
Others quoted 406 to the dollar.
On the official market, the naira was quoted at 308 per dollar on
Thursday and traded with a spread of 0.50 naira.
"Everyone is hedging their bets. We bought the dollar as high as 500
naira and we don't know where the rate is going," one black market
trader, known as Salisu said.
He expected the naira to firm further.
Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele on Tuesday said that speculators
betting on a naira fall "are taking a risk and will lose". He added
that he expects the black market rates to narrow further.
Bid-offer spread on the black market was 5 naira before those comments.
The bank has also been weakening the naira on the official market to
converge rates, traders say. But has said the weakness was not a
devaluation and it has not provided a target rate.
Aminu Gwadabe, head of Nigeria exchange bureaus, told Reuters he
expected the naira to stabilise around 380-400 to the dollar, but
added that the central bank must review the multiplicity of rates.
The West African nation has at least five exchange rates - the
official one, a rate for Muslim pilgrims going to Saudi Arabia, the
one for school fees abroad and a retail rate set by licensed exchange
bureaus at 399.
Being an Ethical Business in a Corrupt Environment HBR
Our research in Egypt, Zimbabwe, and India shows that organizations
should view the prospect of building a strong ethical reputation in
such environments as an opportunity, and consider the costs of
resisting corruption as an investment in building such a reputation.
Moreover, our research illuminates specific steps companies can take
to maintain high ethical standards in environments where corruption
seems widespread. We also find that these steps are most effective in
countries with a free and plural press, an independent judiciary, and
a potential for collective action (such as a community that can be
appealed to or organized, such as a religious community, a civic
organization, or a trade association). When these conditions are in
place, it will be easier for an organization to take a firm stance
against corruption, especially political corruption.
Tanzanian minister sacked after condemning TV intrusion Yahoo Finance
Dar es Salaam (AFP) - Tanzania's information minister was fired on
Thursday after he criticised an ally of President John Magufuli who
had stormed into a television station accompanied by armed men.
The sacking comes amid an uproar over the incident at one of
Tanzania's main private broadcasters, seen as yet another example of
the government riding roughshod over basic freedoms since Magufuli
came to power in October last year.
On Friday, Dar es Salaam regional commissioner Paul Makonda stormed
into the offices of the Clouds FM Media Group with six armed men to
demand the airing of a muckraking video aimed at undermining a popular
local pastor with whom Makonda has a dispute.
The station refused to broadcast the video in which a woman claims to
have had an illegitimate child with the pastor.
Information Minister Nape Nnauye visited the station in the wake of
the intrusion and launched an immediate probe.
"We are used to seeing such incidents during coups d'etat, when armed
men enter studios to proclaim they are overthrowing the state," he
"If it happens in a state which is not undergoing a coup d'etat, where
the president is in place, it gives a very bad image. I will advise my
bosses to take punitive measures against the regional commissioner,"
Meanwhile, as condemnation poured in from civil society and MPs,
Magufuli offered support to his embattled ally.
"I, as president, don't let anyone tell me what to do. I decide who
should be where. So you Makonda, do your job and ignore the rest," he
On Wednesday Deodatus Balile, chairman of the probe team, revealed his
findings, saying Makonda had threatened station staff with blackmail
and jail if they didn't air the video.
Then on Thursday, without any explanation, the presidency released a
statement announcing the appointment of a new information minister.
Nnauye said he was "just trying to do his job" as he addressed
journalists from his car Thursday after police stopped him from
holding a press conference in a hotel in the capital.
He said people should not be concerned about him, but about "where
Tanzania is headed".
East Africa's Oil Ambitions Tested by Pipeline Machinations
A decade after its first big oil find, East Africa’s emergence as a
crude exporter has been hindered by security and cost concerns that
left the region building two pipelines instead of one.
Uganda and Kenya are developing two new basins and originally agreed
to build one line to connect the landlocked discoveries to the coast.
That changed last year, when Uganda chose a more southerly
1,400-kilometer (870-mile) route through Tanzania, citing lower
transit prices. Kenya will go it alone with an 865-kilometer line to a
port on the Indian Ocean.
Two pipelines will test the economics of the developments. Both
projects probably need an oil price of $50 to $55 a barrel to break
even, while lower costs or taxes may be required to justify a final
investment decision in Uganda, according to BMO Capital Markets. The
Tanzanian route will get some funding help from France’s Total SA,
which owns a stake in the Uganda reserves, but it still hasn’t secured
the financing it needs. Further north, Kenya’s explorers are under
pressure to improve the project’s viability by finding more resources.
“The Kenyan pipeline seemed economically viable when Ugandan oil was
going to flow through it,” said Jacques Nel, an economist at NKC
African Economics. With separate lines each carrying less oil than
planned and global prices remaining weak, the economics “will continue
to cast a shadow over the development of the sector,” he said.
While Africa produces more than 8.4 million barrels of crude daily
from major exporters like Libya and Algeria in the north and Nigeria
and Angola in the west, eastern countries weren’t on the world oil
map. That changed in 2006, when Tullow Oil Plc found what may be as
much as 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable reserves in landlocked
Uganda’s Lake Albert region.
In 2012, Tullow made another find in Kenya’s South Lokichar basin that
may contain 750 million barrels. Combined, Kenya and Uganda may be
able to produce about 400,000 barrels a day once production begins.
Kenya’s government would generate revenue of $650 million a year in
the late-2020s, even with crude at just $45 a barrel, said KCSPOG, a
Safety was a concern for Paris-based Total, which in January increased
its holding in the Lake Albert site. The French company agreed to help
finance part of an alternative route through Tanzania that may cost
about $4 billion.
Uganda government officials said the switch was a business decision.
The Kenyan route would have been “very costly,” with a tariff of
$15.90 a barrel, compared with $12.20 for the Tanzanian pipeline,
according to Energy Minister Irene Muloni.
“We took a decision which is good for our country,” Muloni said in an
interview in Kampala, the capital.
Uganda’s decision dented Kenya’s ambitions to develop a $26 billion
regional transport corridor, leaving explorers in the country under
pressure to improve the project’s viability by boosting resources.
Kenya “took a hit” from Uganda’s volte-face, said Ahmed Salim,
Dubai-based vice president of Teneo Strategy. “And as much as Total
has backed this plan, both the Ugandan and Tanzanian governments have
to finance this project and I think that’s where things will run into
16-MAY-2016 :: The Geopolitics of Pipelines in East Africa @TheStarKenya
Given that Uganda’s decision to export its crude oil to world markets
via the port of Tanga is now a ‘’done deal’’, it is worth analysing
what has happened and appreciating that this is the equivalent of a
blow to the solar plexus of our regional ambitions and that these
ambitions are gasping for breath. Recall that Ethiopia has already
dialled up the Djibouti route and that LAPPSET is in essence, a
Kenyan-South Sudan gig and that South Sudan is back at around zero and
is not in a position to finance its own recovery let alone a pipeline.
If the reknowned short-seller Mr. Chanos could short LAPPSET, I am
sure he would be limit short.
The widely read Africa Confidential said this: ‘’Uganda’s decision to
export oil through Tanzania undermines Kenya’s status as regional
kingpin’’. ‘’ The move alters the political balance of the whole
region and has left Kenya with some catching up to do. The preferred
route until the second half of last year, Kenya now has a considerably
less viable oil field and a damaged reputation as the heartbeat of
East African integration’’.
Chatham House in an earlier report said: ‘’Uganda’s foreign affairs
minister also highlighted the issue of relative costs of the rival
routes. The projected cost of the Tanzania route is approximately $4
billion, up to $1 billion less than going via Kenya. Kenya’s proposed
tariff was almost $17 per barrel, compared to Tanzania’s $12 per
barrel. Uganda’s energy minister has also reported that Tanzania has
waived land fees, transit charges and taxes associated with the
When you look at the numbers, our pipeline build was 25 per cent more
expensive and our price per barrel 29.411 per cent more costly, you
realise that we were never in the pipeline game.
Frame the question as a national interest, one for Uganda and its a
no-brainer. Then you have to ask, where was our intelligence? How
could we be so far away from the winning bid? When I worked in the
city and missed a big trade, I would always call back and ask how far
I had missed by. Differentials of 25 per cent and 29.411 per cent
would be terminal to the relationship.
Tanzania’s president John Magafuli has shifted the centre of gravity
for East African oil and gas, South, in one fell swoop. In my humble
opinion, Magafuli has moved with speed and precision and pared price
of brokerage charges. He’s winning. Its time for some serious soul-
Kenya government launches bond for mobile investors BBC
Kenya's Treasury is launching a new government bond called M-Akiba,
aimed at small investors who will be able to purchase the bonds via
their mobile phone at a low cost.
So how exactly does it work? Aly Khan Satchu, a financial analyst and
the chief executive of Rich Management in Nairobi, told BBC Newsday
why he thought it was such an important development:
It allows anybody who has a mobile phone in Kenya to buy and sell
government securities across that phone.
It really is democratising the financial markets. It's giving access
to every Kenyan citizen to government securities.
People with as little as $30 can now invest in the capital markets."
Nairobi Securities Exchange @NSEKenya reports FY 16 EPS -39.831% Earnings
Closing Price: 11.90
Total Shares Issued: 259503194.00
Market Capitalization: 3,088,088,009
FY Revenue 527.164m vs. 663.903m -20.596%
FY Interest income 94.766m vs. 101.010m -6.182%
FY Other income 95.255m vs. 43.344m +119.765%
FY Total income 717.185m vs. 808.257m -11.268%
FY Administrative expenses [487.291m] vs. [448.323m] +8.692%
FY Profit before taxation 233.115m vs. 381.494m -38.894%
FY Profit for the year 183.956m vs. 305.693m -39.815%
EPS (Basic and diluted) 0.71 vs. 1.18 -39.831%
Total assets 2.013745b vs. 1.918235b +4.979%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 479.359m vs. 28.712m
Dividend per share 0.27 vs. 0.49 -44.898%
We will broaden our product offerings through introduction of products
geared towards matching the needs of our Investors such as exchange
traded Funds, Derivatives contracts and GDRs
Introduction of a Market Making framework and Securities Lending and
Highly correlated to Trading volumes and we have been in a Bear
Market. I expect a rebound in FY 17.
STANLIB FAHARI I-REIT reports FY 16 [13 months] EPS 0.54 Earnings here
Closing Price: 10.50
Total Shares Issued: 180972300.00
Market Capitalization: 1,900,209,150
FY Revenue 337.576486m
FY Rental and related income 248.572436m
FY Straight-lining of lease income 89.004050m
FY Interest income 111.209231m
FY Other income 137.856149m
FY Fund operating expenses [180.422344m]
FY Operating expenses [265.053969m]
FY Increase in fair value of investment income [81.004050m]
FY Operating profit 129.374616m
FY Finance costs [23.374328m]
FY Net profit for the period 106.000288m
Basic Earnings per unit 0.59
Headline Earnings per unit 0.89
Distribution earnings per unit 0.54
Investment property 2.439729976b
Total assets 3.715011411b
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period 440.186650m
Net Asset value per Unit 19.81
Dividend 0.50 a share
I will have to dig deeper but the Discount to NAV is noteworthy.