|Thursday 02nd of October 2014
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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
29-SEP-2014 The point I am making is that the dollar has just started getting going. There will be blood in the water. There is a small window if we want to be the sharks.
This time last year, the US was printing $85 billion a month under its
Quantitative Easing (QE3) programme and the party was in full swing
like in the Great Gatsby novel, in which author Scott Fitzgerald
"In his blue gardens men and girls came and went like moths among the
whisperings and the champagne and the stars."
The Punchbowl just kept on giving. Well, next month the entire QE
programme gets wrapped up. The markets have been wrestling with some
serious hangover effects.
I have a call to Action and am aggregating and buying 1 Year Calls.
"Go for broke. Always try and do too much. Dispense with safety nets.
Take a deep breath before you begin talking. Aim for the stars. Keep
grinning. Be bloody-minded. Argue with the world. And never forget
that writing is as close as we get to keeping a hold on the thousand
and one things--childhood, certainties, cities, doubts, dreams,
instants, phrases, parents, loves--that go on slipping, like sand,
through our fingers." -- Salman Rushdie, Imaginary Homelands: Essays
and Criticism 1981-1991
Julia Pierson, Secret Service Director, Resigns Under Pressure About Breaches
Law & Politics
WASHINGTON -- Julia Pierson resigned under pressure as director of the
Secret Service on Wednesday after failing to quell a bipartisan
political furor over repeated breaches of White House security and
losing the confidence of the president her agency is charged with
Ms. Pierson's support in the West Wing began crumbling late Tuesday,
in large part because she did not tell the White House of a security
failure in Atlanta last month when an armed man was allowed to ride in
an elevator with President Obama at the Centers for Disease Control
Despite meeting with the president last week, Ms. Pierson informed him
about the incident only minutes before it was reported in the news
media on Tuesday evening, officials said.
Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, said Ms. Pierson's
delay in telling the president was a crucial part of "recent and
accumulating reports about the performance of the agency" that led Mr.
Obama to conclude that the Secret Service needed new leadership.
After Ms. Pierson appeared at a brutal congressional hearing on
Tuesday, when she had to explain to a House panel how an armed
intruder jumped the White House fence on Sept. 19 and made it as far
into the mansion as the East Room, she woke Wednesday to mounting
calls for her resignation and withering criticism, some of it from
When you have sat and studied something like the Assassination of JFK
and realised how there is an Organ Grinder somewhere who can kill a
President stone cold dead and then spin a Narrative and spin it real
good for 50 years.
Therefore, This is not a series of Lapses This is a series of Messages
An Austrian Organ Grinder
China's Communist Party has warned of "unimaginable consequences" if
demonstrations by pro-democracy campaigners in Hong Kong continue.
The threat, made in the party-run People's Daily, came as China's
government appeared to be losing patience with the protesters, who
have threatened to occupy government buildings unless the city's chief
executive, Leung Chun-Ying, resigns by the end of today.
An editorial read on state TV called for people to support the
government's efforts to "deploy police enforcement decisively" and
"restore the social order in Hong Kong as soon as possible".
Such a Move would be short-sighted and mark the beginning of a serious
After all, Chinese leaders will behave reasonably, argues Tang, and
won't risk repeating a Tiananmen-style crackdown.
Will President Xi Jinping take a page from Deng Xiaoping's playbook
and order the People's Liberation Army to fire on student protesters
in a Tiananmen-style crackdown? "No way," Lau said in an interview
with Bloomberg Television. "The people will not allow it. The world
will not allow it."
Maybe she's right. When it comes to decision-making behind the walls
of the Chinese Communist Party's headquarters in Beijing, though, the
world doesn't get a say. Neither do the people of Hong Kong. For now,
the students sitting in the streets of Central are hoping for the
best. By law, the People's Liberation Army can't intervene, says Stan
Chan, a 19-year-old classmate of Angus Tang's who is helping at the
first-aid station. "The Chinese army can't come because of the Basic
Law," the mini-constitution that guarantees Hong Kong's autonomy, he
Beijing cannot afford a Mis-Step.
Mao II: "The future belongs to crowds."
Law & Politics
Crowds feature heavily in the book, from the opening crowds of
thousands at the mass wedding at Yankee Stadium, to the crowds living
in Tompkins Square Park, to the thousands of mourners at the
Ayatollah's funeral as observed on television by Karen. The nature of
crowds and their relation to personal and collective identity are
In predicting an age of terror in which "the major work involves
midair explosions and crumbled buildings," DeLillo was eerily ahead of
his time in contemplating the profound effect that political terror
was soon to have on American society. The question of the efficacy of
art in the context of dogmatism and violence of a massive scale is
central to the narrative. In preparing the novel, DeLillo's editor at
Viking, Nan Graham said "Long before he had written anything Don told
me he had two folders -- one marked 'art' and the other marked
Just two years before the novel was published Khomeini issued a fatwa
calling for the death of Salman Rushdie after his publication of The
Satanic Verses and New York Post photographers had ambushed J.D.
Salinger in New Hampshire. DeLillo cited the published Salinger
photograph and a photograph of a Unification Church Blessing ceremony
he came across as inspiration for the book, telling Vince Passaro:
" I didn't know it at the time, but these two pictures would represent
the polar extremes of "Mao II," the arch individualist and the mass
mind, from the mind of the terrorist to the mind of the mass
organization. In both cases, it's the death of the individual that has
to be accomplished before their aims can be realized.
China warns US not to meddle in 'internal affairs'
Law & Politics
The United States and China have clashed over the pro-democracy
protests sweeping Hong Kong, with Beijing warning Washington to back
off and saying it would not tolerate "illegal acts".
"The Chinese government has very firmly and clearly stated its
position. Hong Kong affairs are China's internal affairs," foreign
minister Wang Yi told his American counterpart John Kerry, who was
standing next to him, just before they went into talks at the state
department in Washington on Wednesday.
"All countries should respect China's sovereignty and this is a basic
principle of governing international relations," Wang said.
"I believe for any country, for any society, no one would allow those
illegal acts that violate public order. That's the situation in the
United States and that's the same situation in Hong Kong."
"His whole family was screaming He got outside he was throwing up all over the place" Ebola Dallas
Law & Politics
Two days after he was sent home from a Dallas hospital, the man who is
the first person to be diagnosed with Ebola in the United States was
seen vomiting on the ground outside an apartment complex as he was
bundled into an ambulance.
"His whole family was screaming. He got outside and he was throwing up
all over the place," resident Mesud Osmanovic, 21, said on Wednesday,
describing the chaotic scene before the man was admitted to Texas
Health Presbyterian Hospital on Sunday where he is in serious
The hospital cited the man's privacy as the reason for not identifying
him. However, Gee Melish, who said he was a family friend, identified
the man in Texas infected with Ebola as Thomas Eric Duncan.
The New York Times said that Duncan, in his mid-40s, helped transport
a pregnant woman suffering from Ebola to a hospital in Liberia, where
she was turned away for lack of space. Duncan helped bring the woman
back to her family's home and carried her into the house, where she
later died, the newspaper reported. Four days later Duncan left for
the United States, the Times said, citing the woman's parents and
Texas health officials said that up to 18 people, including five
children, had contact with the Ebola patient after he traveled to the
United States from Liberia in late September. The children had gone to
school early this week but have since been sent home and are being
monitored for symptoms.
The Dallas Ebola case has prompted national concern over the potential
for a wider spread of the deadly virus from West Africa, where at
least 3,338 people have died in the worst outbreak on record.
Ebola deaths reach 3,338, but widely undercounted, @WHO says
Law & Politics
The death toll from the world's worst Ebola outbreak on record reached
3,338 people out of 7,178 cases in West Africa as of Sept. 28, the
World Health Organisation said on Wednesday.
It said the total number of new cases had fallen for a second week,
but warned against reading any good news into the figures as they were
almost certainly under-reported and there were few signs of the
epidemic being brought under control.
"Transmission remains persistent and widespread in Guinea, Liberia and
Sierra Leone, with strong evidence of increasing case incidence in
several districts," the WHO's update said.
Last week the U.S. Centers for Disease Control estimated there would
be 8,000 cases reported in Liberia and Sierra Leone by Sept. 30, but
said the true figure would likely be 21,000 after correcting for
We begin with the Public Health Agency of Canada, which once (as
recently as August 6) stated on its website that:
"In the laboratory, infection through small-particle aerosols has been
demonstrated in primates, and airborne spread among humans is strongly
suspected, although it has not yet been conclusively demonstrated (1,
6, 13). The importance of this route of transmission is not clear.
Poor hygienic conditions can aid the spread of the virus."
Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
Euro 1.2659 The U.S. currency fell 0.2 percent to $1.2646 per euro,
after touching $1.2571 on Sept. 30, the strongest level since
Dollar Index 85.60
Japan Yen 108.66 The greenback declined 0.2 percent to 108.70 yen,
having reached 110.09 yesterday, the highest since Aug. 25, 2008.
Swiss Franc 0.9536
India Rupee 61.621
South Korea Won 1058.35
Brazil Real 2.4852
Egypt Pound 7.1500
South Africa Rand 11.2208
Japan's currency fell 0.4 percent in the past month, according to
Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes, which track 10 developed
nation currencies. The New Zealand dollar was the worst performer over
that period, sliding 2.6 percent, followed by the Aussie which dropped
2.4 percent. The dollar climbed 3.4 percent.
The euro has tumbled about 10 percent versus the dollar from a 2
1/2-year high reached in May as the ECB unveiled unprecedented
The ECB is forecast to keep interest rates unchanged today, according
to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, after unexpectedly dropping
borrowing costs to records on Sept. 4. President Mario Draghi said
Sept. 22 policy makers "stand ready to use additional unconventional
instruments" if necessary.
Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 85.60 [Buy Calls]
Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.2659
CHART OF THE DAY shows, Yahoo's market value is lower than the
combined value of its holdings in the Chinese e-commerce company and
Yahoo Japan Corp. and its cash, including after-tax proceeds from
selling shares in Alibaba's IPO.
Yesterday's gap was $9.23 billion, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg. The shortfall reflects an estimate by Damodaran, the author
of four books on company valuation, that Yahoo has $8.02 billion in
The discount is a sign of "investor concerns, merited or not, that
Yahoo's management might do something senseless with the cash," he
wrote two days ago in a posting on his Musings on Markets blog.
South Africa All Share Bloomberg +5.6661% 2014 [has corrected 3,367 points since July 29th - 5 month Lows]
48,875.03 -461.28 -0.93%
Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 11.2197
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.1500
Egypt's Qalaa Holding eyes $560 million capital boost -sources
17.m Dr. Ahmed Heikal Citadel Capital now Qalaa Holding
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +43.689% 2014
9,745.49 -65.91 -0.67%
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -0.2879% 2014 [3 week high]
41,210.10 +104.72 +0.25%
"Our security forces continue to engage the terrorists in battle,"
Jonathan said in a broadcast on state TV to mark 54 years of
independence from Britain.
"Driven by patriotic zeal, they are turning the tide ... inflicting
devastating blows at the heart of terror," he said.
The Feb. 14 vote looks set to be Nigeria's least one-sided since the
end of military rule in 1999.
"For the first time, the credible opposition in Nigeria has come
together," Buhari said during a campaign speech on Tuesday.
Buhari -- deposed in a coup in 1985 -- is popular in the north and
widely recognized as one of the few Nigerian leaders not to have
gained from the widespread corruption.
The APC is campaigning on corruption and better security.
Buhari said Nigeria was "saddled with Nigeria with ... a perilous
security situation, extensive and almost unmanageable corruption and
... pervasive lawlessness".
Nigeria Central Bank Selling Dollars to Stem Naira Slide
The Central Bank of Nigeria sold dollars directly to lenders outside
of its regular currency auctions to meet demand and stabilize the
naira, which gained today to pare a quarterly depreciation.
"We do the auction, and when we see the interbank market going
haywire, we intervene to bring the market to equilibrium," Charles
Mordi, director of research at the Abuja-based central bank, said in
an interview in Lagos, the commercial capital. People may be seeking
dollars because of uncertainty about elections in February and a
falling oil price, he said, declining to say how much was sold.
Demand for dollars in Africa's largest economy and oil producer helped
push the naira 0.4 percent lower in the three months through
September. The central bank's auctions on Mondays and Wednesday are
the biggest source of foreign exchange in the country, followed by
currency sales from oil companies.
The naira reversed a decline of as much as 0.8 percent against the
dollar today to trade 0.1 percent stronger at 163.65 by 2:48 p.m. in
Lagos. The central bank keeps the naira at 3 percent above or below
155 per dollar at its twice weekly auctions to lenders and
President Goodluck Jonathan hasn't said whether he would seek a second
term in office in next year's vote. Oil output has stayed below the
country's 2.4 million barrel-a-day capacity this year, according to
data compiled by Bloomberg.
The bank is still in a "comfortable position" to defend the naira with
the level of external reserves and investment inflows, Mordi said.
Nigeria's gross reserves have fallen 9.3 percent this year to $39.56
billion by Sept. 26.
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +3.449% 2014 [3 week lows]
2,219.55 -20.13 -0.90%
Ghana Said to Raise Farmgate Cocoa Price 51% For 2014-2015
Angola Raises Fuel Prices to Ease Subsidy, Free Social Spending
Angola, Africa's second-largest crude producer, increased the retail
prices for gasoline and other fuels to have more income to spend on
poverty-alleviation programs, the Finance Ministry said.
The cost of a liter of gasoline rose 25 percent to 75 kwanzas (76 U.S.
cents), while diesel increased to 50 kwanzas from 40 kwanzas, the
Luanda-based ministry said on its website. Prices for other fuels and
materials, such as cooking gas and asphalt, rose between 19 percent
and 35 percent.
The southwest African country spent about 4 percent of its 2013 budget
on fuel subsidies, according to London-based Control Risks, a
consultancy on governance. The government has been under pressure from
the International Monetary Fund since entering a $1.4 billion loan
agreement in 2009 to reduce fuel subsidies and increase spending on
Protests against fuel price increases, which have occurred in other
sub-Saharan countries such as Mozambique, are unlikely to take place
in Angola because of its well-equipped police force, according to
"The security forces would be likely to suppress any planned protests,
making any escalation unlikely," the consultancy said. "Nonetheless,
isolated protests may occur in the transport sector."
DR Congo Ebola outbreak has killed 42 since August
IMF says Kenya's new economic numbers show reforms are working
An upward revision of Kenya's economic output shows that the country's
economic reforms are paying off, with the potential for future growth
to exceed 6 percent a year, an International Monetary Fund (IMF)
official said on Wednesday.
Kenya announced on Tuesday that last year's gross domestic product was
$53.4 billion - 25 percent higher than previously stated - after
updating the base year for its calculation. Growth for 2013 was
revised up to 5.7 percent from 4.7 percent.
Armando Morales, the IMF representative in Nairobi, said the new
numbers ended the puzzle of why economic reforms in recent years were
not being reflected in more robust growth numbers.
"Now we have found confirmation that, using better statistics, these
reforms have been translating to growth," he told Reuters. "Our
perception was of a booming economy; an economy ready for take-off."
Previous figures had consistently underestimated the growth rate, in
spite of reforms including a review of taxes to boost revenue, a
tightening of banking and capital market regulations to cut risk,
improvement in the management of public finances and general economic
Morales, however, said the Kenyan economy still faces challenges,
particularly after a spate of militant attacks over the past year that
have dented the tourist trade, a major source of hard currency.
The Washington-based fund is likely to lower its 2014 growth forecast
of 5.5-6 percent to closer to 5 percent, Morales said, after the
Kenyan government revised its forecast to 5.3-5.5 percent from 5.8
percent after the rebasing exercise.
But Morales said Kenya could push growth above 6 percent if it can be
more consistent on economic policy, referring to interest rates
decisions that resulted in high inflation and currency weakness in
An IMF team will visit Nairobi this month to discuss the government's
request for an "insurance-type" lending facility to cushion against
unforeseen shocks such as weather-related problems for the farming
Morales said the rebasing exercise made it easer to "fine tune" a new
programme because it offered a more accurate picture of the economy,
but added that inflation needs to be watched closely to ensure it does
not stray too far from the mid-point of the government's 2.5-7.5
percent target range.
"We would like to see how the pattern evolves over the next three
months," he said.
Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 89.453
Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +20.182% 2014 [ within 0.73% of a record
closing high of 165.45 reached on the 23rd of last month]http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND
164.23 +0.78 +0.48%
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +6.922% 2014 [139 points below a 6 year
closing High of 5,406.39 reached on the 22nd of last month]http://j.mp/ajuMHJ
5,267.54 +11.92 +0.23%
Every Listed Share can be interrogated herehttp://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php
Cadbury to shut Nairobi factory at end of month
The company said it would cease all manufacturing operations in Kenya
by the end of this month and only retain the marketing and
distribution functions of the business.
It becomes the second firm in as many days to cease local
manufacturing after Eveready Ltd announced the closure of its plant in
Nakuru on Monday.
Mondelçz International, the US-based parent company of Cadbury Kenya,
told the Nation that it would now "focus its resources on scale
manufacturing facilities where it can generate greater efficiencies,
to reinvest in growth."
Other manufacturers that have closed production lines in the country
include Kenya Breweries, Reckitt Benckiser, Procter & Gamble,
Bridgestone, Colgate Palmolive, Johnson & Johnson and Unilever.
Reckitt Benckiser, a global home and personal care giant, left Kenya
and now uses the services of Orbit Chemical for its JIK, Dettol and
Colgate, another casualty, has also shipped out. The trend should
worry the government which is charged with creating an enabling
environment for new and existing investors to operate. This is meant
to creation more jobs in the economy.
"There are regulatory aspects that do not support the country's bid to
attract foreign investments. Issues like existing non-tariff barriers
make the country less competitive," said Ms Betty Maina, the chief
executive of the Kenya Association of Manufacturers, on Wednesday.
The Nairobi All Share eased 0.60 points to close at 163.63.
The Nairobi NSE20 retreated 17.89 points to close at 5249.65.
Equity Turnover clocked more than a billion for the 3 consecutive session.
Equity Turnover clocked 1.336b.
Local investors accounted for 60.5% of total buying and 60.4% of total selling.
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural
Kenya Orchards surged by its Daily Limit of 10% to close at a Fresh
Record of 88.00 and traded 200 shares. Kenya Orchards has rallied an
exponential +2,833% in 2014 and is of course the best performing
counter at the Securities Exchange in 2014.
Kenya Orchards share data here +2,833% in 2014
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
Safaricom ticked 1.54% easier to close at 12.75 and traded 5.934m
shares worth 75.892m. Safaricom has muscular Buy Side Support at these
levels and below. I interviewed the CEO Bob Collymore the day before
yesterday and just before the 'Black-Out' Period ahead of the First
Half Earnings release. Voice Usage expanded 30% and consider that this
remains the main revenue stream. Mr. Collymore was nonchalant about
the Equity Bank Mobile Money Challenge explaining that the Cake is a
very big one. I expect a solid earnings Release will take the Price
into new all time Highs.
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 58.50 and traded 1.609m
shares worth 94.202m. Kenya Commercial Bank is +23.809% in 2014 and
will test its record closing High of 59.50 reached on the 23rd of
Equity Bank eased 1.98% to close at a three week low of 49.50 and
traded 1.852m shares worth 92.569m. Equity Bank has corrected 16.806%
off a record closing High reached on 23rd September through today's
close. The Price Correction looks complete and Equity Bank was trading
at 50.50 2.02% higher than the closing Price which signals same.
NIC Bank firmed +1.948% to close at 78.50 and was in fact trading at
81.00 +5.19% at the Finish Line. NIC Bank traded 584,000 shares worth
45.914m. NIC Bank is offering shares via a Rights Issue in the Ratio
of 1 share for every 14 held which is a very light sized Issue and
will be fully taken up.
Centum retreated 7.518% to close at 61.50 and traded 656,200 shares.
Centum rallied +139.39% since the start of the Year through the 23rd
of September and via red hot streak that set a series of all time
highs. Subsequently, Centum has corrected 22.64% since 23rd September
which is a natural long overdue bout of profit taking after such a
blistering, parabolic rally.
CFC Insurance rallied a further 4.65% to close at 22.50 and traded
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
BAT Kenya rallied 7.35% to set a Fresh Record closing high of 949.00
on heavy volume action of 560,300 shares [0.5603% of its shares] worth
531.793m and 39.77% of the Turnover at the Exchange. BAT has served up
a +63.75% Total Return in 2014. BAT paid out 99.32% of its Earnings
per share as Dividend and is the preeminent dividend paying counter at
the Securities Exchange. BAT accelerated H1 Profit After Tax +13.6%
and trades on a Trailing PE of 25.4833.
BAT Kenya +63.75% Total Return in 2014 and at a record High share data here
EABL rallied +1.792% to close at a 3 week High of 284.00. EABL was
trading at session highs of 288.00 +3.23% session highs at the closing
Bell. EABL traded 799,100 shares worth 227.708m. EABL sits in Pole
Position in this region , Senator has been lapped and Spirits are
beginning to gain Traction.
Bamburi Cement firmed 0.67% to close at 147.00 and traded 364,200
shares. Bamburi Cement has retreated 30% in 2014 in what has been a
material counter market trend move.