17th April 2014
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 16th of April 2014
 
Morning
Africa

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Dr Sezibera SG.EAC
Charles Ireland, Group Managing Director & CEO, EABL
Dr. Titus Naikuni, Group MD & CEO Kenya Airways
Christine Lagarde MD IMF

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

T.S. Eliot 1. The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock
http://www.bartleby.com/198/1.html

LET us go then, you and I,
When the evening is spread out against the sky
Like a patient etherized upon a table;
Let us go, through certain half-deserted streets,
The muttering retreats          5
Of restless nights in one-night cheap hotels
And sawdust restaurants with oyster-shells:
Streets that follow like a tedious argument
Of insidious intent
To lead you to an overwhelming question....             10
Oh, do not ask, "What is it?"
Let us go and make our visit.

And indeed there will be time
To wonder, "Do I dare?" and, "Do I dare?"
Time to turn back and descend the stair,
With a bald spot in the middle of my hair--             40
(They will say: "How his hair is growing thin!")
My morning coat, my collar mounting firmly to the chin,
My necktie rich and modest, but asserted by a simple pin--
(They will say: "But how his arms and legs are thin!")
Do I dare               45
Disturb the universe?

Do I dare to eat a peach?
I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.

read more



Ukrainian government forces launched their first significant military action in the east of the country on Tuesday, clashing with about 30 pro-Russian gunmen at a provincial airfield
Law & Politics


It was the first major operation since the Ukrainian government vowed
to take "anti-terrorist" action if the rebels did not vacate
government buildings in eastern Ukraine. A smaller, abortive operation
in Slavyansk on Sunday ended in a shoot-out, in which one Ukrainian
soldier died and two were wounded, apparently by pro-Russian forces.

Ukraine's acting president said the recapture of the airport was just
the first such action aimed at restoring Kiev's control over the east.

"I just got a call from the Donetsk region: Ukrainian special forces
have liberated the airport in the city of Kramatorsk from terrorists,"
Oleksandr Turchynov told parliament.

"I'm convinced that there will not be any terrorists left soon in
Donetsk and other regions and they will find themselves in the dock -
this is where they belong."

Conclusions


I am not sure that Kiev can land a decisive enough Blow in Eastern
Ukraine and therefore, we are primed for continued escalation.

BREAKING NEWS: Five or six armoured personnel carriers enter east
Ukraine town of Slaviansk, lead vehicle showing the Russian flag:
@Reuters eyewitness

Ukrainian helicopters take off after delivering troops to an
airbase in Kramatorsk, east Ukraine. Photograph: Marko Djurica/Reuters

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/15/ukraine-armed-conflict-east

read more


The Obama Game: Is Putin Being Lured Into a Trap?
Law & Politics


The overriding goal of US policy in Ukraine is to stop the further
economic integration of Asia and Europe. That's what the fracas is
really all about. The United States wants to control the flow of
energy from East to West, it wants to establish a de facto tollbooth
between the continents.

It's clear, that Turchynov is trying to lure Russia into a fight, just
as it's clear that the president would not have approved the crackdown
without a green light from Washington.

read more


The China economy grew 7.4 percent in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.
International Trade


That was slightly stronger than the median forecast of 7.3 percent in
a Reuters poll but still slower than 7.7 percent in the final quarter
of 2013.

It was China's slowest annual growth since the third quarter of 2012,
when the world's second-largest economy also grew 7.4 percent.

"The slowdown of China's economy is a reflection of a transformation
of the economic mode," said Sheng Laiyun, of the National Bureau of
Statistics.

"There is no fundamental change in the improving trend of China's
economy. The economy is still moving steadily towards the expected
direction."

For the quarter, the economy grew 1.4 percent, the slowest rate in two
years, which Credit Agricole strategist Dariusz Kowalczyk said equated
to annualized growth of 5.8 percent.

"This highlights the depth of deceleration at the start of the year," he said.

China slowdown worries mineral-rich Africa (1:59) Reuters Video

http://in.reuters.com/video/2013/07/17/china-slowdown-worries-mineral-rich-afri?videoId=244269477

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3827
Dollar Index 79.78
Japan Yen 102.27
Swiss Franc 0.8799
Pound 1.6735
Aussie 0.9366
India Rupee 60.262
South Korea Won 1039.21
Brazil Real 2.2368
Egypt Pound 6.9796
South Africa Rand 10.5399

It all pivots on Yellen today.

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2013/10/9/1381324985813/Janet-Yellen-005.jpg

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 79.78

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Fed chief Yellen is scheduled to address the Economic Club of New York
today, followed by a Q&A session. She said in March that the central
bank may start to increase borrowing costs "around six months" after
concluding its asset-buying program, which economists forecast will
end in October.

Since then, minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's latest
meeting showed the central bank played down predictions by some of its
own policy makers that interest rates may rise faster than they had
forecast earlier.

"She will be careful not to make the same faux pas," said Derek
Mumford, director at Rochford Capital, a currency risk-management
company in Sydney, referring to Yellen's comments last month. "She
won't be indicating that rates will be going up sooner rather than
later. If anything, she'll be giving a more dovish tone. And if she's
dovish, it has the potential to weaken the U.S. dollar."

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.3827

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 3 month INO 1296.90 [As I said the 2014 High is already in place]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

Gold futures for June delivery fell $27.20 to settle at $1,300.30 an
ounce at 1:37 p.m. on the Comex in New York, the biggest decline since
Dec. 19.

This year, gold has climbed 8.2 percent. In 2013, the metal plunged 28
percent, the most since 1981

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 103.15

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.M14.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Mr Descalzi's background in the upstream business suggests his
promotion is validation of Eni's current strategy, particularly its
success exploring in frontier markets.

http://stream.wsj.com/story/markets/SS-2-5/SS-2-508439/

Eni has discovered 2.5 times its production from 2008 to 2013,
compared to 0.3 times at its peers. Its organic reserve replacement
ratio has averaged 130% in the past three years. The company largely
steered clear of expensive acquisitions amid the shale boom in North
America, instead focusing on geopolitically-risky markets,
particularly in Africa.

But, if Eni's exploration success is acknowledged, the new CEO faces
challenges in execution. Whether or not the $50 billion Kashagan
project starts producing this year is a key issue; continued
disruptions in Nigeria and Libya, which led to a 10% fall in upstream
production last year, will continue to be a drag. Eni could deliver 6%
average production growth over the next three years, estimates
Barclays. But the company, like much of the sector, has struggled to
hit output targets.

Longer-term, Eni must also develop its vast gas reserves offshore
Mozambique. Given such commitments, Mr Descalzi could accelerate Eni's
shift upstream by pruning loss-making downstream divisions. The
company already plans to increase capital employed upstream to 63% by
2017 from 60% last year; reducing Eni's 43%stake in troubled
contractor Saipem, about 13% of capital employed last year, could also
free up cash for ambitious projects.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

read more


The leader of South Sudan's rebels has vowed to attack the capital Juba and target crucial oil fields, warning in an exclusive interview with AFP that the civil war will not end until the country's president is removed from power.
Africa


"If we are to remove the dictator, Juba is a target, oil fields are a
target," Machar said late Monday in a secret location in Upper Nile
state, one of South Sudan's key oil producing regions.

"We are only resisting a regime that wants to destroy us," Machar
said, adding he still hoped a moribund ceasefire deal signed in
Ethiopia in January "will be respected by both parties."

Bentiu town comes under attack

https://radiotamazuj.org/en/article/bentiu-town-comes-under-attack

The Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army opposition faction led by
Riek Machar launched on Monday evening and Tuesday morning attacks on
the capital of Unity State, after two days of clashes in oil-producing
areas near the town.

Salva Kiir's troops and allied forces have controlled Bentiu for the
last three months, ever since recapturing it from a defected army
division in early January.

In a statement to Radio Tamazuj, Yohannes Musa Pouk, the spokesman for
the SPLM/A-IO, claimed Bentiu was captured from the Kiir forces on
Monday night.

read more



Sudan bans meetings of political parties
Africa


Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir has issued a decree banning political
parties from holding meetings without permission from the authorities,
the official SUNA news agency has reported.

"No political party has the right to hold meetings and conferences
inside their areas without first obtaining permission from the
relevant authorities," SUNA late on Monday reported the decree as
reading.

The decree comes just a week after Bashir assured a meeting of party
leaders they had freedom to operate in the run-up to a "national
dialogue" he has promised to hold to address urgent demands for change
in his 25-year regime.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +4.65% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 3 Month Chart INO 10.5285

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9789

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +19.19% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

8,026.92 +140.84 +1.79%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -3.76% 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

39,217.65 230.15 +0.59%

"Our security planning for the World Economic Forum on Africa is
already well under way and will be the largest security operation ever
mounted in this country for an international summit," she said in a
statement to participants that was seen by Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/15/us-nigeria-security-idUSBREA3E0QB20140415

Security personnel will secure an area of 250 square kms (100 square
miles) around the May 7-9 event.

Our forecast already highlights the threat of both intensifying
violence in the run-up to elections and the risk that Islamist
insurgents will attempt to spread their sphere of attacks @EIU

http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1181726502&Country=Nigeria&topic=Politics&subtopic=Forecast&subsubtopic=Political+stability&u=1&pid=691708253&oid=691708253&uid=1

We would significantly downgrade our political and economic forecasts
if the Islamists were able to launch an attack on the commercial
capital, Lagos.

Suspected Islamist rebels abduct over 100 Nigeria schoolgirls: teacher

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN0D10K020140415

read more


WHITE WIDOW: Samantha Lewthwaite linked to Abuja bombing
Africa


A huge explosion ripped through a busy bus station in the country's
capital, Abuja, during the peak rush-hour this morning.

But while nobody has officially claimed responsibility, security
sources fear the bombing may have been a REVENGE attack for the death
of al-Shabaab terror chief Makaburi, aka Sheikh Abubakar Shariff Ahmed
- Lewthwaite's MENTOR - just two weeks ago.

Lewthwaite, the infamous widow of 7/7 bomber Germaine Lindsay, is on
the run in Africa with three children.

The daughter of a British Army soldier, she is already on Interpol's
Most Wanted list in connection with SEVEN murders as well as the siege
of the Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi, Kenya in September last year
which left 67 dead and nearly 200 injured.

She was known to be 'extremely close' to Makaburi, who coordinated the
Westgate atrocity.

A senior security source said agents across Africa were on high alert
after the assassination of Makaburi - reportedly by the UK and US
funded Kenyan Anti-Terror Police Unit (ATPU) 14 days ago.

The source said: "Makaburi was always believed to be at the very top
of the hierarchy of terror organisation al-Shabaab.

"Intelligence suggests he introduced Samantha Lewthwaite to many
influential figures within the al-Shabaab network. He guided her on
her path to Jihad.

"His murder was seen as yet another act of war."

The source added that Lewthwaite and her associates "wanted revenge".

read more


Reflections on #Westgate, #Samanthalewthwaite The White Widow The @NSEKenya and The Shilling 30th September 2013
Africa


#Westgate happened more than a week ago and to date there is no Grand
Unified Theory. There are competing Narratives and it is this Pot
Pourri of Narratives which is leaving many of us uncertain. Earlier
This week I characterised it as a BP Moment. Kenya's share of Voice
was at a Level heretofore never experienced. The World's Media was
camped on our Doorstep. I found myself watching the #Live Feed,
trawling Eyewitness Accounts, reading the Al-Shabaab Twitter Handles
[Twitter knocked them down about 4x only for it to bounce back under a
different Handle]. In fact, Al-Shabaab live tweeted #Westgate and the
Cabinet Secretary's Bona Fides was undermined by the real time
rebuttals issued by Al-Shabaab and on Twitter. The latency of the
responses leads to me place the Author of the Twitter Handles on the
scene in #Westgate for an as yet undetermined time.

Numerous Eye Witness Accounts put a White Woman at the scene. And a
number of those Accounts give this Woman a Leadership Roll.

This was the Catalyst for a Tsunami of Stories about Samantha
Lewthwaite also known as The White Widow for she was the widow of 7/7
suicide bomber Germaine Lindsay. Lindsay blew himself up on a train
travelling between King's Cross and Russell Square tube stations, at
8:50 a.m. He killed 26 civilians in his suicide attack. Lewthwaite was
8 months pregnant with their second child, a daughter, at the time of
his death, and their first child, a son, was 14 months old. Lewthwaite
reported her husband missing six days after the bombing by telephoning
a helpline set up for families of the victims. She denied prior
knowledge of the attacks and said:

 "I totally condemn and am horrified by the atrocities. I am the wife
of Germaine Lindsay, and never predicted or imagined that he was
involved in such horrific activities. He was a loving husband and
father. I am trying to come to terms with the recent events. My whole
world has fallen apart, and my thoughts are with the families of the
victims of this incomprehensible devastation."

Subsequently, she fell below the Intelligence Radar. In 2011, she
reappears in Kenya, Tanzania and South Africa and apparently Somalia.
On Friday, Kenya requested that INTERPOL issue a Red Notice for
Samantha Lewthwaite  on charges of being in possession of explosives
and conspiracy to commit a felony dating back to December 2011.

That's the Backgrounder. Now lets jump to #Westgate. As I scanned the
Al-Shabaab Tweets I recalled this one that @GGoodwin retweeted

"Westgate: 14hr standoff relayed in 1400 rounds of bullets & 140
characters of vengeance & still ongoing. Gd morning Kenya!"

Another read ''Here are 2 of the Mujahideen inside #Westgate mall,
unruffled and strolling around the mall in such sangfroid manner.''

I kept thinking to myself 'sangfroid' is such an unusual word. It
means coolness of mind; calmness; composure a kind of cold bloodedness
under Pressure. I kept thinking to myself that Sangfroid is a Quality
highly prized in the Military. Thats a word the Daughter of a Military
Man might know. Nishet tells me, I think this is a Woman. And I said
Thats exactly it. Another Tweet says ''I am Titanium.'' referencing a
David Guetta Song, whose lyrics read and are practically a Taunt

read more


David Guetta - Titanium ft. Sia (Official Video) @Youtube
Africa


The Lyrics
http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/davidguetta/titanium.html

[Sia:]
You shouted out
But I can't hear a word you say
I'm talking loud not saying much
I'm criticized but all your bullets ricochet
You shoot me down, but I get up

[Chorus:]
I'm bulletproof, nothing to lose
Fire away, fire away
Ricochet, you take your aim
Fire away, fire away
You shoot me down but I won't fall
I am titanium
You shoot me down but I won't fall
I am titanium

[Sia:]
Cut me down
But it's you who'll have further to fall
Ghost town and haunted love
Raise your voice, sticks and stones may break my bones
I'm talking loud not saying much

And therefore, I am putting Samantha Lewthwaite at the Scene and I
think she live tweeted from inside #Westgate for an as yet
undetermined Period. And I think she signalled her Presence and is
probably seeking some kind of recognition.  Finally, there is a Tweet
I recall about taking a walk. And I remember when my Phone was stolen
at Westlands roundabout, The Thief ran into a Tunnel. I think She was
in there, she live tweeted from inside and then she escaped through a
Tunnel.

My Friend Aidan Hartley tweeted ''what use would Samantha Lewthwaite
be when shooting starts? She's a bogey woman in a burkha, a media
construct'' and ''Yes immoral! like plucked eyebrows & lipstick sulky
selfies in hijab.''

And I thought to myself, thats a whole new Audience. In fact, that is
the Audience. It's not in Mogadishu, its in Minneapolis, London, its
the Diaspora.

read more



Temasek Nigeria Deal Shows Interest in Faster-Growing Africa
Africa


The second major acquisition in Africa by Temasek Holdings Pte or one
of its units in six months shows the growing interest in a continent
where many countries are expanding faster then developed markets.

Singapore's state-owned investment company will buy a stake in Seven
Energy International Ltd. for $150 million, the Nigerian closely-held
energy company said in a statement April 14. That follows an
announcement in November of a $1.3 billion investment in three gas
blocks offshore Tanzania by Temasek's liquefied natural gas unit
Pavilion Energy Pte.

"It ticks all the right Temasek boxes as it is an investment in a
fast-growing emerging economy and it is an investment in resources,"
said Song Seng Wun, a Singapore-based economist at CIMB Group Holdings
Bhd. (CIMB) "They are slowly getting more comfortable with the
region."

Temasek joins other investors including Carlyle Group LP and Robert
Diamond's Atlas Mara Co-Nvest Ltd. (ATMA) that are seeking to profit
from the continent's development. Nigeria has the potential to be one
of the top 15 economies in the world by 2050, fueled by its
population, which would account for about a fifth of Africa's people
by then, Jim O'Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset
Management, wrote in a Bloomberg View column April 6.

"We are interested in investment opportunities in Africa where they
fit our investment themes; in particular, around the transformation of
economies and the demand for consumption by growing populations,"
Temasek spokesman Stephen Forshaw said.

The International Monetary Fund forecast this month economic growth in
sub-Saharan Africa will accelerate to 5.4 percent this year from 4.9
percent in 2013. It also forecast growth in Nigeria would rise to 7.1
percent from 6.3 percent.

Ahead of the most recent investments in Africa, Temasek's assets in
the continent, central Asia and the Middle East accounted for just 2
percent of its total holdings as of March 31, 2013, according to its
latest annual report published in July. That's on a par with
investments in Latin America and compares to 13 percent in Australia
and New Zealand, and 12 percent in North America and Europe.

Investing as little as $150 million in a Nigerian company makes sense
because the country is still politically unstable, Song said.

"One has to have a very high-risk appetite to invest in a failed state
like Nigeria," Friedrich Wu, an adjunct associate professor at Nanyang
Technological University in Singapore said in an e-mail. "After the
BRIC economies, investors are chasing the next frontier markets to
pour their money in. Africa has been talked up by various analysts and
the media, but it could turn out to be a nightmare or quagmire."

Founded in 2004, Seven Energy focuses on the emerging Nigerian
domestic gas market, according to the statement.

Apart from Temasek, International Finance Corp., a unit of the World
Bank, will invest $75 million and the IFC African, Latin American and
Caribbean Fund $30 million, Seven Energy said.

Robert Diamond's Atlas Mara on April 6 said it was buying a stake in
state-owned Development Bank of Rwanda after previously agreeing to
acquire Gaborone, Botswana-based financial services company BancABC
for as much as $265 million.

The city-state's investment firm in August 2011 said its unit, Sennett
Investments Ltd., and E. Oppenheimer & Son, the investment holding
company of the Oppenheimer family, would form an Africa-focused
private equity joint venture that would primarily buy stakes in
African consumer and agricultural businesses.

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

2,284.22 -26.41 -1.14%

The open question is whether, Ghana is in the cockpit or whether the
markets will simply elbow the Government aside 24-MAR-2014

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2403.pdf

Ghana's Eurobond has a 9 per cent handle and sentiment has soured so
much, it is entirely feasible that Ghana might print a double digit
yield. Ghana is a near perfect harbinger of what can go wrong when you
front load your recurrent expenditure in the expectation that revenues
are a rising tide. The open question is whether, Ghana is in the
cockpit or whether the markets will simply elbow the Government aside.

Tanzania will ease controls on foreign ownership of its stocks and
bonds by next year as the country seeks to attract investment to
finance infrastructure projects that will cost billions of dollars,
President Jakaya Kikwete said.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-04-15/tanzania-president-says-capital-controls-to-be-eased-by-2015-1

Restrictions that bar non-residents from buying the nation's bonds and
block companies that are more than 60 percent owned by foreigners from
trading on the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange will be eased under East
African Community rules, Kikwete, 63, said in an interview at his
office on April 11. A common market agreement by the five-nation bloc,
which includes Kenya and Uganda, calls for liberalization to take
place by 2015, he said.

"Our people at the central bank have given me the assurance that we
will meet that deadline," Kikwete said in the commercial capital, Dar
es Salaam. "There is some liberalization ongoing, but by 2015 we are
going to be fully liberalized."

Yields on Tanzanian Treasury bills are the highest in East Africa.
Rates on 91-day T-bills dropped to 12.2 percent at an auction on April
9 from 13.8 percent at the last sale in 2013. That compares with rates
of 8.8 percent for similar-dated securities in Kenya, the region's
biggest economy, while Uganda's securities yielded 10.9 percent at an
April 2 sale.

Tanzania's shilling has weakened 2.7 percent this year against the
dollar, the most out of East African currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
The currency declined for the first time in four days, falling 0.1
percent to 1,634 per dollar by 10:14 a.m. in Dar es Salaam.

The relaxation of capital controls coincides with the government
engaging Fitch Ratings and Moody's Investors Service to rate the
country's long-term risk ahead of its debut Eurobond offering.

Servacius Likwelile, the permanent secretary in Tanzania's Finance
Ministry, said in February the sale of the Eurobond had been postponed
until the next fiscal year that begins on July 1 because the country
was still awaiting a risk assessment by Citigroup Inc., which slowed
the issuing of credit ratings.

"I think it's going to be good," he said.

Moody's has a B1 rating on Kenya's and Uganda's debt, which is four
steps below investment grade. Fitch rates the countries B+ and B
respectively and Rwanda is assigned B, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg. B+ is four levels below investment grade and B five steps.

Overseas Development Institute called on the Financial Conduct
Authority to look into Western Union and Moneygram

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/apr/16/uk-western-union-moneygram-overseas-development-institute-odi-remittances-africa

Britain's leading money transfer companies are imposing a "super tax"
on remittances to Africa and should be investigated by the
government's consumer watchdog, the UK's leading international
development thinktank said on Wednesday.

The Overseas Development Institute called on the Financial Conduct
Authority to look into Western Union and Moneygram as it issued a
report which said Africa was losing $1.8bn a year from excessive
charges on money sent home by workers in the rest of the world.

Latest World Bank figures show that remittances from foreign workers
are expected to be $436bn this year, more than three times what poor
countries receive in overseas aid, but the ODI said the cost of
sending money back to Africa was far higher than the global average.

"Migrants sending $200 home can expect to pay 12% in charges, which is
almost double the global average. While the governments of the G8 and
the G20 have pledged to reduce charges to 5%, there is no evidence of
any decline in the fees incurred by Africa's diaspora. There is no
justification for the high charges incurred by African migrants."

A spokesman for Moneygram said the ODI had got its figures wrong. "We
don't recognise those numbers at all. There is no Africa premium." He
said Moneygram was offering a competitive service for people shunned
by high street banks and that someone sending £200 from the UK to
Africa would pay a charge of 5.1%, including foreign exchange fees,
against a global average of 4.9%.

read more


TPS @Serenahotels reports FY PAT 2013 +35.442% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           42.25
Total Shares Issued:          182174108.00
Market Capitalization:        7,696,856,063
EPS:             3.45
PE:                12.246

FY Earnings through 31st December 2013 versus 31st December 2012

FY Sales 6.841420b versus 5.343960b +28.021%
FY EBITDA 1.467815b versus 1.164826b +26.011%
FY Net Interest Expense [144.822m] versus [154.561m]
FY Depreciation [388.246m] versus [303.694m] +27.84%
FY Profit before Tax 973.247m versus 721.516m +34.889%
FY Profit After Tax 668.530m versus 493.588m +35.442%
FY EPS 3.45 versus 3.60 -4.1666%
Final Dividend 1.35 a share versus 1.30 +3.846%
Weighted average number of shares 182,174 versus 148.211

Company commentary


''faced a challenging business landscape during the first half of 2013''
''During the last quarter 2013 JKIA Fire incident Westgate Mall and
grenade attacks in tourist areas in Mombasa resulted in further
anxiety in source markets''
''Serena Tanzania and Uganda outlook for 2014 is at encouraging levels''
''Taking all factors into account, the company's performance for the
year 2013 is commendable''

Conclusions


Commendable results when set against a weak Tourism backdrop. Serena
is regionally diversified which brings some insulation from pure Kenya
dynamic which have been soft. This is an undervalued share, in my
opinion.

read more





Trans-Century reports FY 2013 PAT -15.15% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           27.00
Total Shares Issued:          273950000 .00
Market Capitalization:        7,396,650,000
EPS:             1.06
PE:                25.471

FY Earnings through 31st December 2013 versus FY through 31st December 2012

FY Turnover 11.807576b versus 13.487229b -12.453%
Profit from operating activities 1.535049b versus 1.969432b -22.056%
FY Net Finance costs [676.459m] versus [742.959m]
FY Profit before Tax 856.590m versus 1.226473b -30.15%
FY Profit after Tax 628.432m versus 740.647m -15.15%
FY EPS 1.06 versus 1.66 -36.144%
Final Dividend 40cents a share unchanged

Company commentary

''The Group continued to focus on its key strategy of growing the
Power business through regional diversification as well as positioning
itself as a key player in infrastructure development through the
engineering division''
''slowed activity in the first half of the year during the election
period in Kenya''
The Group realised $43.7 from sale of 34% shareholding in KU Railways
Holdings limited which saw it recover its entire cash investment in
RVR.
''The Business outlook is positive for our core power and engineering
businesses''

Conclusions


Quite a Step down from the 1st Half Stage where PAT was running
+16.725% and at FY PAT is -15.15%.
Its expensive on a PE of 25.471.

read more


14-APR-2014 :: Times Media Buys Stake in Kenya's Radio Africa
Kenyan Economy


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 86.953

http://j.mp/5jDOot

The currency lost as much as 0.3 percent to 87.02 per dollar, the
lowest intraday level since Sept. 26. It was trading 0.2 percent down
at 86.92 as of 3:49 p.m. in the capital, Nairobi, extending losses
this year to 0.7 percent.

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg  +7.149% in 2014 record highs

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi All Share rallied 0.6945% to close at 146.42 and has posted a
Record High for the 3rd consecutive session.

The Nairobi All Share is +7.149% in 2014 and the recent move higher
has been on the coattails of Safaricom which is +20.737% in 2014 and
at a record. Safaricom's market capitalisation is now 524.584b
[$6.0366b] and accounts for 25.77% of the All Share and has been the
very much the Precipitator of the move to all time highs in the All
Share.

read more


@Safaricomltd is +20.737% in 2014 [and is now within 2.962% of my Price Objective of 13.50]
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           13.10
Total Shares Issued:          40044601000.00
Market Capitalization:        524,584,273,100
EPS:             0.44
PE:                 29.773

First Half Earnings for the Period ended 30 September 2013

H1 Revenue 69.201287b versus 59.118149b +17.1%
H1 Cost of Sales [30.215501b] versus [27.529922b] +9.8%
H1 Gross Profit 38.985786b versus 31.88227b +23.4%
H1 Operating Expenses [22.829488b] versus [19.206278b] +18.9%
H1 PBT 15.908812b versus 11.509998b +38.2%
H1 PAT 11.260242b versus 7.7774849b +44.8%
H1 EPS 0.28 versus 0.19 +47.4%

read more




Telkom Kenya needs upto Sh30bn in capital boost
Kenyan Economy


Telkom Kenya, the owner Orange brand, says it needs as much as Sh30
billion in capital injection to get back on track even as it
downplayed reports that its parent company is seeking to exit the
Kenyan market.

France Telecom, which owns 70 per cent of Telkom Kenya, has reportedly
informed the government -- which holds a 30 per cent stake -- of its
intention to sell its entire shareholding and exit the local market
after seven years of loss making.

Telkom Kenya CEO Mickael Ghossein on Tuesday failed to confirm the
buyout talks, only stating that France Telecom was actively in search
for a "strategic partner" to help jumpstart its business.

"I cannot give more details because I am restricted by my colleagues
in France," said Mr Ghossein at a press conference in Nairobi where he
announced that the firm's capital expenditure this year will be Sh2.5
billion.

"We still have cash issues; we are developing the company and we need
funds to continue doing this. We need between Sh10 billion and Sh30
billion but I cannot give you the exact figure since it is not my duty
to negotiate for cash."

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.325% 2014

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) recorded a 210 per cent growth
in net profit for the year ending December 2013 ahead of its listing
planned for June this year.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/NSE-profit-soars-210pc-ahead-of-planned-listing-in-June/-/539552/2281062/-/dk04dz/-/index.html

Net profit stood at Sh262.7 million, up from Sh84.8 million in 2012
with revenue up by 62 per cent to Sh622 million.

NSE chief executive officer Peter Mwangi said that increased activity
which saw total equity turnover for 2013 rise to Sh155 billion
compared to Sh84 billion in 2012 was the main profit driver.

"Our main source of income is the trading commissions, and as long as
there is more trading activity like we saw last year, our top line
revenues increase as well," said Mr Mwangi.

Bonds turnover stood at Sh452.46 billion in 2013, compared to the 2012
turnover of Sh565.7 billion.

From its 22.5 per cent shareholding in Central Depository and
Settlement Corporation where the NSE holds 225,000 shares, it got a
share of profits of Sh14.25 million, up from Sh3.5 million in 2012.

In 2013, the equities market activity grew on increased participation
from both local and foreign investors. Foreign investor participation
at the bourse stood at 51.38 per cent in 2013.

Operating income which includes transaction levies annual listing fees
and flotation fees rose to Sh488.8 million up from Sh329.9 million in
2012.

The exchange earns a transaction levy of 0.12 per cent of the value of
shares traded and 0.0035 per cent for the value of fixed income
securities traded--for both sell and buy-on its platform.

The transaction levy earnings from equities stood at Sh374 million in
2013, while those from bonds trading were Sh31.7 million.
Administrative expenses rose by 29 per cent to Sh333.8 million, with
finance costs up to Sh39.4 million from Sh1.5 million in 2012.

The bourse is set to pay a final dividend of Sh2 per share, up from
Sh1 a share in 2011 with the total payout amounting to Sh49 million,
for the 24.5 million issued shares.

This means that stockbrokers and investment banks by virtue of their
holding of 88 per cent of the bourse, will earn Sh43.1 million in
dividends.

Mr Mwangi said that the bourse expects to sustain the revenue levels
in 2014 through the introduction of other products including REITs and
derivatives.

The market in the first quarter of 2014 has recorded equity turnover
of Sh44.1 billion, which is 28 per cent higher than the turnover in
the first quarter of 2013.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share rallied a further 0.6488% to close at a Fresh
Record High as it has very session since Friday.
The Nairobi All Share closed at 147.37 and is +7.8444% in 2014.
The Nairobi NSE20 edged 3.95 points lower to close at 4906.96.
The NSE20 is marginally negative for the Year.
Equity Turnover was 977.34m and brisk.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Williamson Tea was the biggest gainer at the Securities Exchange and
closed 9.68% higher at 272.00. It had become oversold on low volume
and was overdue a rebound.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom firmed 0.76% to close at a Fresh All Time High of 13.20 in
what has been a winning Sequence of All Time Highs of late. Safaricom
traded shares at an intra day High of 13.40 +2.29% and that is an all
time High Price Print. Safaricom traded 11.279m shares worth 149.128m
and There were 2 Buyers for every Seller for most of the session.
Safaricom is +21.65% in 2014.

TPS Serena firmed 1.19% to close at 42.50 the day after releasing FY
2013 Earnings which I though significantly outperformed expectations
and the broader Macro Kenya Tourism Backdrop [real soft].



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank was the most actively traded share at the
Securities Exchange and eased 0.53% to close at 47.00 and traded
9.117m shares worth 428.506m and that represented 43.8441% of the
total volume traded today. This was Kenya Commercial Bank's 2nd most
active session in 2014. KCB traded a 46.50-47.25 range. KCB IS -0.529%
in 2014 and 6% off a record close of 50.00 reached in Q4 2014. The
tightness of todays trading range has actually been a feature for a
number of weeks and speaks to real solid Buy Side Demand.
Equity Bank closed unchanged at 32.25 and traded 1.933m shares worth
62.357m. Equity Bank will report Q1 2014 Earnings tomorrow.
CFC Stanbic Bank rallied 4.55% to close at 115.00 and whilst +32.18%
in 2014 has further headroom.

Transcentury was the biggest loser at the Securities Exchange and fell
12.04% to close at 23.75. Transcentury traded share as low as 20.00
-25.93% during the session. Transcentury released FY 2013 Earnings
yesterday where FY PAT declined -15.15%. Early this morning,
Trancentury released a FY 2014 Profits warning which queered
sentiment.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL surged 4.444% to close at 282.00 and closed the session trading
at 287.00 +6.30%. EABL traded 417,200 shares worth 117.878m. EABL has
rallied 6.818% over the last 2 sessions. EABL has rallied 28.76% since
the beginning of March when it closed at a 52 week Low. EABL remains
-2.75% in 2014 but will reach unchanged as early as next week.

ARM closed unchanged at 85.00 and traded 653,800 shares worth 55.571m.
East African Portland Cement rebounded 6.99% to close at 99.50. EAPC
is +44.2% in 2014.

Total Kenya spiked 6.59% to close at 24.25 and traded 18,400 shares.
Total Kenya's FY 2013 Earnings deserve a higher price.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2014
 
 
 
 
RICH PODCASTS
08-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 8th April 2011
07-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 7th April 2011
06-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 6th April 2011
05-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 5th April 2011
04-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 4th April 2011
01-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 1st April 2011
 
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