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Morning Africa |
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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke
FY Results Interview with @BobCollymore CEO #Safaricom RICH #TV
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtvi.php
Africa's quest for sustained economic growth Inside Story @AJELive
@AJEnglish Africa
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2013/05/201351184230371482.html
#Africa 's quest for sustained economic growth @AJELive @AJEnglish Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/cpzhur
I am looking forward to hosting @HabilOlaka of the @KenyaBankers at
#Mindspeak on Saturday 25th May
http://twitpic.com/cprlag
#Mindspeak is held at @InterConNairobi
http://twitpic.com/cm03ub
We serve Breakfast from 9 am The Program starts at 1000
http://www.twitpic.com/8oc8q7
#Mindspeak 2013 RICH TV
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtv.php
Africa's Perception Gap Still very Wide The Star
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX1305.pdf
#Africa's future is not seen in the rear view mirror,Aly-Khan Satchu
beyondbrics FT
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/03/12/guest-post-africas-future-is-not-seen-in-the-rear-view-mirror/#axzz2THagvmZk
Macro Thoughts
BUY THE DOLLAR AND SELL GOLD
Home Thoughts
My Heart was as light as if I had been flying it, up there, on a
string, as you fly a Kite. Page 199 Out of Africa
It was a Pleasure catching up with my oldest and Dearest Friend
Alexander Michaelis yesterday
http://www.twitpic.com/cr0ll1
It was at Alex's House in London where Prime Minister @David_Cameron
told me that he had spent his gap year here in Kenya
25-MAR-2013 Ties that Bind UK and Kenya @UKinKenya
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX2503.pdf
Interestingly, Alex is refurbishing Kichwa Tembo in the Maasai Mara
[and just under 30 Years ago we stayed there ourselves]
Among The Elephants #Maasai Mara #Video
http://www.twitpic.com/87jfu1
Maasai Dance #Fairmont Mara #Kenya #Africa Video
http://www.twitpic.com/84v8kh
The #Maasai Morans taught us to dance #Fairmont Mara #Kenya
http://www.twitpic.com/84mu40
Life is tough for a Zebra #Mara #Fairmont #Kenya Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/83xmob
I have so many Memories with Alex and since I was 13 Years old. When
we were 17 We drove from London to the South of France in his Alfa Sud
and in our version of On The Road.
What's your road, man? — holyboy road, madman road, rainbow road,
guppy road, any road. It's an anywhere road for anybody anyhow. [On
the Road]
The Road Robert Frank
http://artblart.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/us-285-new-mexico-1955.jpg
In his introduction to The Americans, Kerouac describes this
photograph as "a long shot of night road arrowing forlorn into
immensities and flat of impossible-to-believe America in New Mexico
under the prisoner's moon."
“As we crossed the Colorado-Utah border I saw God in the sky in the
form of huge gold sunburning clouds above the desert that seemed to
point a finger at me and say, "Pass here and go on, you're on the road
to heaven.” ― Jack Kerouac, On the Road
There are few People in Your life that have known You from the
beginning and whom You love unconditionally, other than Your immediate
Family and Your Children.
Alex is one of those. |
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Russia Raises Stakes in Syria WSJ Law & Politics |
Russia has sent a dozen or more warships to patrol waters near its
naval base in Syria, a buildup that U.S. and European officials see as
a newly aggressive stance meant partly to warn the West and Israel not
to intervene in Syria's bloody civil war.
Russia's expanded presence in the eastern Mediterranean, which began
attracting U.S. officials' notice three months ago, represents one of
its largest sustained naval deployments since the Cold War. While
Western officials say they don't fear an impending conflict with
Russia's aged fleet, the presence adds a new source of potential
danger for miscalculation in an increasingly combustible region.
"It is a show of force. It's muscle flexing," a senior U.S. defense
official said of the Russian deployments. "It is about demonstrating
their commitment to their interests."
"There's no magic formula for dealing with an extraordinarily violent
and difficult situation like Syria's," Mr. Obama said at a news
conference in Washington with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan. "I do think that the prospect of talks in Geneva involving
the Russians…may yield results."
Moscow's diplomacy notwithstanding, U.S. officials believe that in
addition to the naval deployments, Russia is moving more quickly than
previously thought to deliver S-300 surface-to-air defense systems to
Syria.
U.S. officials say the S-300 system, which is capable of shooting down
guided missiles and could make it more risky for any warplanes to
enter Syrian airspace, could leave Russia for the port of Tartus by
the end of May.
Russia sent newly advanced supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles to
Syria and deployed a dozen or more warships to patrol waters near
Syria, U.S. officials said.UPI
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2013/05/17/Russia-sends-missiles-to-Syria-warships-near-Syria/UPI-63171368770400/
The delivery of Yakhont, or the P-800 Oniks, missiles demonstrates the
depth of Moscow's support for the regime of President Bashar Assad,
U.S. officials told The New York Times.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu ended
their three-hour meeting in Sochi Tuesday, May 14, at loggerheads on
Syria say DEBKA
http://www.debka.com/article/22970/Syrian-Israeli-war-of-words-via-Putin-edges-into-Syrian-Hizballah-war-of-attrition-
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu ended
their three-hour meeting in Sochi Tuesday, May 14, at loggerheads on
Syria. In fact, Putin warned his guest that Israel and its army, the
IDF, were heading for war with Syria in which Russia might well be
involved – and not just through the advanced S-300 anti-air missiles
supplied to the Assad government. The case Netanyahu and Military
Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi put before Putin and Russian
foreign intelligence chief, SVR Director Mikhail Fradkov, fell on deaf
ears.
They found the Russian leader further infuriated by the docking that
day at Israel’s Red Sea port of Eilat of the USS Kearsarge, carrying
1,800 marines and a consignment of 20 V-22 Osprey helicopters which US
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel had promised to supply to Israel during
his April visit.
Putin viewed the stationing of US forces in the Gulf of Aqaba just two
hours away the Israeli-Syrian border for repelling
Syrian-Iranian-Hizballah aggression against Israel or Jordan –
signaled by the Kearsage’s arrival - as an act of bad faith by
Washington. On the one hand, they want us to cooperate for an
international conference to end the bloodshed in Syria, while on the
other, they deploy military forces, he complained to Netanyahu.
The conversation ended with the Russian leader fully confident that
his capabilities for safeguarding Assad were greater than Israel’s
ability to destroy him.
Conclusions
There is a lot of Hardware in a small Area.
Putin had to put up or shut up, however.
Russia Warship docked at Tartus
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/images/news/201212/n_36147_4.jpg |
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Samaras Tells China to See Greece as Europe’s Investment Gateway Bloomberg International Trade |
Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said China should use his country
as a gateway to invest in Europe, pledging to give the “red carpet
treatment” to foreign investors as Greece recovers from its economic
crisis.
Samaras, speaking in Beijing during a five-day visit, said his country
is “anchored to the euro zone,” and believes in a “new era” of
cooperation. Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Jiang Yaoping said China
will expand investment in the port of Piraeus and invest in
infrastructure in the European Union.
“Greece in now anchored in the euro zone and this is unquestionable --
period,” Samaras said.
Samaras spoke three days after Fitch upgraded Greece and gave it a
stable outlook, saying that “clear progress” had been made toward
eliminating its fiscal and current-account deficits. The country’s
Economic Adjustment Program is “on track,” Fitch said.
Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
http://j.mp/97tI8l
Euro 1.2865 touched 1.2843 on May 15, Dollar strongest since April 4.
Dollar Index 83.97
Japan Yen 102.52 The yen touched 102.76 per dollar this week, the
weakest since October 2008
Swiss Franc 0.9670
Pound 1.5241
Aussie 0.9744 touching 97.36, the lowest level since June 5.
India Rupee 54.887
South Korea Won 1116.94
Brazil Real 2.0258
Egypt Pound 6.9701
South Africa Rand 9.3910 4+ Year Low
The dollar has risen 5 percent this year, the best performance among
the 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg
Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen has lost 13 percent in the same
period, the biggest loser, while the euro had gained 2.1 percent.
Conclusions
I am very bullish the Dollar.
Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 83.97 [I am looking for 88.00]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Dollar Yen 3 Month Chart INO 102.52
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDJPY&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Japan Becomes Most Favored Nation in Poll Showing Abe Optimism Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/japan-becomes-most-favored-nation-in-poll-showing-abe-optimism.html
Investors are more confident in a Japanese leader than any time since
at least September 2010, with optimism about Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe’s policies exceeding that for counterparts in the U.S., Europe and
China.
The number of respondents who are more optimistic than pessimistic on
the impact of Abe’s plans on Japan’s investment climate rose to 66
percent this month from 54 percent in January, a worldwide poll of
investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers showed.
Japan offers one of the top two opportunities globally in the next
year, according to 33 percent of respondents, up from 21 percent and
beating China for the first time in surveys dating back to 2009.
“Abe bought time and succeeded in changing people’s minds” about
Japan’s potential, said respondent Ai Sato, a stock trader at Nissay
Asset Management in Tokyo. “We’re seeing the effects of this ‘sake’
through foreign investors increasing Japanese exposure,” she said,
using a reference to traditional rice wine for the liquidity being
injected by the Bank of Japan.
The optimism rating for Abe’s policies is higher than any leader ever
tested, even Germany’s Angela Merkel, who has long been at the top on
this question.
Sixty-three percent predicted the Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) will
be higher six months from now, the highest share in polls dating to
July 2009.
djfxtrader: #Japan Govt: March Machinery Order Amount Highest Since
Oct 2008, Percentage Gain Largest on Record
djfxtrader: #Japan March Core Machinery Orders +14.2% On Month; Expected +2.5%
Nikkei ^N225 1 Year Chart +73.74% Yahoo Finance
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=
Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.2865
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1 |
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Turkey Raised to Investment Grade by Moody’s on Debt Cuts Bloomberg Emerging Markets |
Turkey’s credit rating was raised to investment grade by Moody’s
Investors Services Inc. for the first time in two decades as the
government reduced its debt and current-account deficits. The lira
pared losses.
Moody’s said in a statement yesterday that it lifted Turkey’s
government bond ratings by one step to Baa3, the lowest investment
grade, from Ba1. The move puts Turkey’s credit rating at the same
level as Spain, Colombia and India. The outlook was set at stable.
Frontier Markets |
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Sudanese foreign minister to visit Juba on Friday Reuters Africa |
Karti will visit Juba with intelligence chief Mohamed Atta to deliver
a letter regarding bilateral relations from President Omar Hassan
al-Bashir to South Sudan's Salva Kiir, state news agency SUNA said.
Conclusions
The Trend is your Friend and The Trend is one of increasing Rapprochement.
The #river #Nile seen from #juba #Sudan Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/rlbpe
Nigeria sent fighter jets in support of troops fighting increasingly
powerful Islamist insurgents in its northeast on Thursday Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/16/us-nigeria-violence-idUSBRE94F0M320130516
Air Force spokesman Air Commodore Yusuf Anas confirmed to Reuters by
telephone that "air assets", including helicopter gunships as well as
jets, had been sent in support of the extra troops being deployed for
the operation.
He declined to give any further details. A military source said the
planes would bomb Islamist bases and training camps.
Telephone connections to Borno and Yobe were almost completely cut on
Thursday. In Adawama, where a curfew was declared from 6 p.m. to 6
a.m. -- the other two states were already under curfew -- some
cautiously welcomed the offensive. The three are among Nigeria's
poorest and most remote states, near border areas with Chad, Cameroon
and Niger.
"All you're doing is giving the military more powers than they had,
but they were already far exceeding the powers ... and violating human
rights massively," Lucy Freeman, Amnesty International's deputy
program director, told Reuters by phone.
Human Rights Watch Nigeria researcher Eric Guttschuss said: "If the
military continues its practice of targeting civilians, there is a
risk of massive abuses during this offensive ... the military's
tactics have helped fuel the spiraling violence."
DaMina Advisors Frontier Markets Note Nigeria’s sovereign stability
at risk as security challenges and sectarian clashes threatens
economic growth, FDI and capital inflows
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcfrbs/docs/DaMina%20Nigeria%20State%20of%20Emergency.pdf
Africa’s rising food imports FT Subscriber
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/05/16/africas-rising-food-imports/#axzz2THagvmZk
A rising middle class, expanding population and stagnant local
agricultural production are driving up Africa’s food imports. Bad luck
is partly to blame. Weather-related damage has hit rice crops in
Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Niger and Madagascar. Foot and mouth
disease has hurt Egypt’s bovine sector, and cassava – one of Africa’s
major offerings to world agricultural trade – is being felled by a
fast-spreading virus.
But policy volatility is also at fault. Nigeria – Africa’s largest
rice importer – announced a hike in import taxes last year which
prompted a sudden rise in purchases. And across Africa, weak
infrastructure hinders agri-markets.
Rising imports are also a consequence of wealth and one of its
quickest effects: a taste for protein. Poultry imports were up about
12 per cent last year, driven by higher incomes in the likes Angola,
Benin, Ghana and the Republic of the Congo.
“Africa is growing at a base of 5 to 6 per cent a year, which
translates into a growing middle class with an increase of
consumption,” says Jean-Louis Ekra, president of the African
Export-Import Bank in Cairo.
A raft of public initiatives including Grow Africa and the Kofi
Annan-chaired Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa are drawing
attention to agricultural productivity, which has fallen over the past
three decades. Africa lost its status as a net exporter of
agricultural products in the early 1980s when prices of raw
commodities fell and local production stagnated. Since then,
agricultural imports have grown consistently faster than exports and
by 2007 reached a high of $47bn, yielding a deficit of $22bn. The
value of agricultural exports from Thailand, which has less than 10
per cent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population, is now greater than for
the whole of Sub-Saharan Africa.
No country better exemplifies Africa’s agricultural decline than
Nigeria. In the 1960s, before the oil bonanza, it was one of the
world’s most promising food producers, beating the likes of Malaysia
and Indonesia in palm oil, and the US and Argentina in groundnuts. It
provided 18 per cent of global cocoa production, a figure down to 8
per cent today. And while it produces 65 per cent of tomatoes in
western central Africa, it is now the largest importer of tomato paste
(from China and Italy).
In an interview with This is Africa at the World Economic Forum in
Cape Town last week, Akinwumi Adesina, Nigeria’s agriculture minister,
reeled off these statistics with regret.
While Nigeria is second in the world in citrus production and Africa’s
biggest pineapple producer, its supermarkets are stocked with
concentrated, imported versions of both. “The only local content is
water from Nigeria,” the minister complains.
Multinationals testify to the challenges of agricultural
import-dependence in their local operations. “We have 13 factories in
Africa that use products like soft oils, tomatoes or starch-based
compounds on a daily basis, but much of this is imported, wasting
foreign exchange and increasing our carbon footprint,” says Marc
Engel, chief procurement officer at Unilever. The company owns the
largest soap factory in Africa, but has to import palm oil from Asia
to keep it running; and it imports sorbitol from China for its local
oral care products, when cassava would do the job.
To an optimist, of course, import-dependence spells opportunity.
Firstly, structural imbalances are often a symptom of fast growth.
China’s annual agricultural consumption has overtaken production, too.
For companies and investors, Africa’s status as an importer signals
strong domestic demand which could be met through investment in
domestic agribusiness and food retail.
Zimbabwe Wants to Distribute Diamonds to China, Dubai, Israel Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/zimbabwe-wants-to-distribute-diamonds-to-china-dubai-israel.html
Zimbabwe is trying to reach an agreement to distribute its stones
directly to China, Dubai and Israel without violating rules against
the sale of gems from the Marange fields, Chris Mutsvangwa, chairman
of the state-owned Mineral Marketing Corporation Ltd., said.
The U.S. may also get involved in discussions, Mutsvangwa said on the
sidelines of a Chamber of Mines annual meeting in Nyanga today. The
proposal wouldn’t violate rules because Zimbabwe outside of Marange
was certified compliant in 2010.
Zimbabwe, which produced 8 million carats of diamonds in 2012 worth
$865 million, is the world’s seventh largest diamond producer. Its
output this year is estimated at 16 million carats, according to Mines
Minister Obert Mpofu.
Diamond mining in Zimbabwe was mostly confined to central and southern
parts of the country and expanded to the eastern district of Marange
after the discovery of alluvial diamonds, boosting production since
2006.
Diamonds from Marange can’t be exported legally from Zimbabwe because
the field hasn’t yet met an international certification standard
showing that proceeds from sales aren’t used to finance conflict.
Dollar versus Rand 1 Year Chart INO 9.38532
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 6.9701
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Sierra Leone Recovery Sends Yields to Record Low Level Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-17/sierra-leone-recovery-sends-yields-to-record-low-level.html
Sierra Leone, the African nation rebuilding its economy a decade after
the end of a civil war, is benefiting from slower inflation and a
stable currency as borrowing costs tumble and growth accelerates.
Yields on 91-day notes fell 128 basis points, or 1.28 percentage
point, to a record 6.42 percent at the last central bank auction May
9, 134 basis points higher than South African yields and down from
19.1 percent in December after the central bank cut interest rates.
The Finance Ministry forecasts growth in the $3 billion economy of
15.1 percent in 2013 after last year’s 21.3 percent, which was
bolstered by the start of iron-ore exports and construction including
the expansion of the airport serving Freetown, the capital.
The amount of bills sold by the Bank of Sierra Leone in the first
quarter dropped 18 percent from the previous three months to 489
billion leones, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Debt rose as
government spending climbed on borrowing to spend on infrastructure
projects including roads and power output.
Debt to gross domestic product will slow to 40 percent this year from
44 percent in 2012 after climbing as high as 162 percent in 2003,
according to IMF estimates and data.
The government wants to cut debt by at least 50 percent in 2013,
Joseph Thullah, an economist in the ministry’s public debt management
department, said in an interview May 7. Any financing shortfalls will
be made up by seeking donor funds, he said.
The Bank of Sierra Leone lowered its key lending rate by 300 basis
points to 17 percent on April 11, saying concern about inflation
pressure from prices for imported food and fuel “may be cushioned by
the relative stability in the exchange rate.”
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IMF says Kenya well placed for debut Eurobond in Q4 2013 Business Daily Kenyan Economy |
Ragnar Gudmundsson, IMF resident representative in Kenya, told Reuters
a peaceful presidential vote in March has helped restore Kenya's image
after post-election violence five years ago and would also help secure
a lower yield on the new issue.
"The conditions would be right to negotiate a sovereign bond in the
last quarter of the year."
Kenya will use proceeds from the sale to retire a $600 million
syndicated loan taken out last year at an overall cost of 7 per cent
and to fund infrastructure projects. Rwanda, a smaller economy, paid a
yield of 6.875 per cent on its bond.
Mr Gudmundsson said 10 years would be a "reasonable tenor" and the
government could seek up to $1 billion, an amount that would keep the
government's borrowing on debt markets within a limit agreed under the
IMF's extended credit facility programme.
Mr Gudmundsson said the country, which discovered oil in the far north
county of Turkana last year, could attain the double-digit growth that
the government has been targeting if it properly manages wealth from
those natural resources.
"If these deposits are commercially viable and they are managed well,
double-digit growth becomes a more realistic prospect," the
representative said, although he said production could still be five
years away.
Mr. Gudmundsson at the BAT Lunch
http://www.twitpic.com/cn3j2h
Kenya Commercial Bank has launched a fully-furnished five-star luxury
marina at the coast Nation
http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/KCB-unveils-Sh5bn-hotel-for-tourists/-/1006/1854650/-/lowrwf/-/index.html
The Englishpoint Marina, set on a four-acre piece of land in Mkomani,
Nyali overlooking Fort Jesus, will be completed in November and
bookings for the 96 three-bedroom apartments at the facility are
currently ranging between 30 and 35 per cent.
The Sh4.8 billion project was fully funded by Kenya Commercial Bank,
according to the bank’s group chief executive officer Joshua Oigara.
“We are aware that the backbone for East Africa’s economy is the
investment in strategic sectors such as tourism. The sheer magnitude
of this five-star investment is an indicator that KCB group has the
capacity to finance huge projects,” said Mr Oigara during the
unveiling ceremony attended by among others Vision 2030 Director
General Mugo Kibati.
The marina is a complex with four-story blocks consisting of 96
three-bedroom lifestyle apartments and eight five-bedroom penthouses
designed in such a manner that all rooms have a sea view.
There will also be a 26-room hotel, spa, gym, a five star
international marina accommodating 88 boats, water sports centre and
restaurants.
#Africa Past Present and #Future Sculpture at English Point Marina
#Mombasa Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/bqdoko
The View of Mombasa Island seen from The Show Apartment English Point
http://www.twitpic.com/bqdcok
Kenya Commercial Bank share price data here +37.815% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D
Par Value: 1/-
Closing Price: 41.00
Total Shares Issued: 2950170000.00
Market Capitalization: 120,956,970,000
EPS: 4.11
PE: 9.976
An Interview with @JoshuaOigara CEO @KCBGroup
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtvi.php
Protesting pigs march against Kenyan MP's greed YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5f5YpDpy90
Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
http://j.mp/5jDOot
Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +33.375% in 2013
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +19.888% in 2013
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ
Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php |
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