21st February 2017
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 21st of February 2017
 
Morning
Africa

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Most excellent. @JBorgstam @SwedeninKE @swedense
Africa


I thank His Excellency Johan Borgstam for the invitation to speak to
all the Kingdom of Sweden Ambassadors in SSA.

And Johan produced some top quality Groenstedts Cognac last night.

And I reminded Johan of what Ryszard Kapuściński had to say of Cognac

“There is a lot of warmth in an old cognac, a lot of sun. It will go
to one’s head calmly, without hurry.”

The Little One was very cross this morning and it took me 15 minutes
of our 20 minute drive to persuade her to come and sit in the front
and talk to me. And we spoke about our visit to the Nairobi National
Park and how she was the best Spotter of wild animals.

I am reading

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Africa


“But he could not renounce his infinite capacity for illusion at the
very moment he needed it most... he saw fireflies where there were
none.” ― Gabriel García Márquez, The General in His Labyrinth

“Jose Palacios, his oldest servant, found him floating naked with his
eyes open in the purifying waters of his bath and thought he had
drowned.” ― Gabriel García Márquez, The General in His Labyrinth

read more




05-DEC-2016 At this moment, President Putin has Fortress Europe surrounded
Law & Politics


So much has happened in 2016, from the Brexit vote to President-elect
Trump, and it certainly feels like we have entered a new normal. One
common theme is a parabolic Putin rebound. At this moment, President
Putin has Fortress Europe surrounded.  e intellectual father of the
new Zeitgeist that propelled Brexit, Le Pen, the Five Star movement in
Italy, Gert Wilders in the Netherlands, is Vladimir Putin.

read more







WHITE HOUSE Leaked Trump tape: 'You are the special people' @Politico
Law & Politics


“We’re doing a lot of interviews tomorrow — generals, dictators, we
have everything,” Trump told the crowd, according to an audiotape of
his closed-to-the-press remarks, obtained by POLITICO from a source in
the room. “You may wanna come around. It’ll be fun. We’re really
working tomorrow. We have meetings every 15, 20 minutes with different
people that will form our government."

"We’re going to be interviewing everybody — Treasury, we’re going to
be interviewing secretary of state,” he continued. “We have everybody
coming in — if you want to come around, it’s going to be unbelievable
… so you might want to come along.”

read more


"We are witnessing a rocking horse presidency," he added @CNN
Law & Politics


CNN's Fareed Zakaria had strong words on Sunday for President Donald
Trump's performance so far, imploring viewers to "not confuse motion
with progress," and arguing that Trump has "hardly done anything."

"The first few weeks of the Trump administration have been an
illustration of that line from the writer Alfred Montalpert: "Do not
confuse motion and progress. A rocking horse keeps moving but does not
make any progress,'" Zakaria said.

"We are witnessing a rocking horse presidency," he added.

read more


Is the Trump-Russia scandal really Watergate 2.0? @VanityFair
Law & Politics


Why did Flynn resign? The official reason is that he lied to Mike
Pence about the content of his conversation with Russian officials.
But people suspect there’s an unofficial reason, too. After all, would
Flynn discuss sanctions with the Russians if Trump hadn’t authorized
it? Also, it seems that intelligence sources had already shared with
Trump what they knew about Flynn weeks ago. So perhaps Trump knew more
than he let on, leading to questions of what he knew and when.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0583
Dollar Index 101.19
Japan Yen 113.58
Swiss Franc 1.0057
Pound 1.2443
Aussie 0.7666
India Rupee 66.98
South Korea Won 1146.58
Brazil Real 3.0870
Egypt Pound 15.8000
South Africa Rand 13.0822

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Crude Oil Chart INO 53.98
Commodities


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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A rough guide to foreign military bases in Africa IRIN
Africa


The twin hotspots are the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. “It’s where
Europe touches Africa, and where Africa touches the Middle East,”
explained the Africa director for the International Crisis Group,
Comfort Ero.

The Sahel controls the migration route that conveys young men and
women across the Mediterranean. It’s also a zone of instability, where
al-Qaeda, so-called Islamic State and Boko Haram operate. It’s where
state administration and even basic services are absent, encouraging
that flow.

From bases across the region, US drones and French soldiers have
joined African armies to push the militants into the remote
hinterlands. But blasting Jihadists from the sky does not win the
hearts and minds argument.

“The challenge is, despite the rise of new security structures in the
last few years, they haven’t done much to change the [political]
dynamic on the ground,” Ero told IRIN.

Those alliances also give leaders like Idriss Déby in Chad and Ismaïl
Omar Guelleh in Djibouti some regime security and a pass on their
dodgy human rights record.

And Guelleh has milked it. Djibouti lies on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait,
a gateway to the Suez Canal, one of the world's busiest shipping
lanes. It’s also a waypoint between Africa, India, and the Middle
East, and makes a lot of money from hosting seven armies – America,
China, Italy, France, Germany, Japan, Spain, and soon Saudi Arabia.

The lease on the only permanent US military base in Africa, Camp
Lemonnier is $63 million a year. China, building its own facility at
the other end of the Gulf of Tadjoura, gets a bargain at $20 million.
Only Iran seems to have been refused a berth in Djibouti.

The following is a rough guide to whose boots are where in Africa.

China

Djibouti: China is building its first overseas military base at the
port of Obock, across the Gulf of Tadjoura from the US Expeditionary
Base at Camp Lemonnier. It’s the latest in China’s $12 billion
investments in Djibouti, including a new port, airports and the
Ethiopia-Djibouti rail line. The base will have the capacity to house
several thousand troops, and is expected to help provide security for
China’s interests in the rest of the Horn of Africa.

France

Chad: Headquarters of the anti-insurgent Operation Barkhane. The
roughly 3,500 French troops operate in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali,
Mauritania and Niger.

Cote d’Ivoire: The facility at Port-Bouët, a suburb of Abidjan, is to
be expanded from 500 to 900 men and form a forward operating base for
West Africa.

Djibouti: A long-standing French military presence, now comprising
roughly 1,700 personnel.

Gabon: A key base that has contributed troops to France’s
interventions in Central African Republic.

Germany

Niger: An air transport base at Niamey international airport to
support Germany’s growing troop contribution to the UN mission in
Mali.

India

Madagascar: India’s first foreign listening post was set up in
northern Madagascar in 2007 to keep an eye on ship movements in the
Indian Ocean and listen in on maritime communications.

The Seychelles: Has allocated land on Assumption Island for India to
build its first naval base in the Indian Ocean region. The ostensible
interest is counter-piracy, but India also seems to be keeping an eye
on China.

Japan

Djibouti: Since 2011, a contingent of 180 troops has occupied a
12-hectare site next to Camp Lemonnier. This year, the outpost will be
expanded. The move is seen as a counter to Chinese influence, linked
to a new strategic engagement with Africa, underlined by the Sixth
Tokyo International Conference on African Development held in Nairobi
last year.

Saudi Arabia

Djibouti: After falling out with Djibouti, Riyadh is now finalising an
agreement to build a new base. Saudi Arabia is leading a coalition
fighting Houthi rebels in Yemen, across the narrow Bab-el-Mandeb
Strait.

Turkey

Somalia: Ankara’s first military base in Africa is a training facility
for Somali troops. Turkey has steadily increased its influence in
Somalia, with major development and commercial projects. In 2011, then
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan became the first foreign
leader to visit Mogadishu since the start of the civil war.

United Arab Emirates

Eritrea: In 2015, the UAE began developing the mothballed deepwater
port of Assab and its 3,500-metre runway, capable of landing large
transport planes. Assab is now the UAE’s main logistics hub for all
operations in Yemen, including the naval blockade of the Red Sea ports
of Mokha and Hodeida. In return, the isolated Eritrean government has
received a financial and infrastructural aid package.

Somalia: The UAE trains and equips Somalia’s counterterrorism unit and
National Intelligence and Security Agency. It also supports the
Puntland Maritime Police Force, which is believed to have played a
role in interdicting Iranian weapons smuggling to the Houthis.

Somaliland: The UAE has a 30-year lease on a naval and airbase at the
port of Berbera. Last year, Dubai Ports World won a contract to manage
and double the size of the port, ending Djibouti’s monopoly on
Ethiopia’s freight traffic. The UAE is reportedly providing military
training and a security guarantee to the self-declared independent
territory.

United Kingdom

Kenya: A permanent training support unit based mainly in Nanyuki, 200
kilometres north of Nairobi

United States

Burkina Faso: A “cooperative security location” in Ouagadougou
provides surveillance and intelligence over the Sahel.

Cameroon: Garoua airport in northern Cameroon is also a drone base
targeting Boko Haram in northeastern Nigeria. It houses unarmed
Predator drones and some 300 US soldiers.

Chad: Predator and Reaper drones are based in the capital, Ndjamena.

Djibouti: Camp Lemonnier, a 200-hectare expeditionary base housing
some 3,200 US soldiers and civilians next to the international
airport. Home to the Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa of the
US Africa Command, it is the only permanent US military base in
Africa.

Ethiopia: A small drone facility at Arba Minch was operational since
2011 but is now believed to have closed.
Kenya: Camp Simba in Manda Bay is a base for naval personnel and
Green Berets. It also houses armed drones for operations in Somalia
and Yemen.

Niger: An initial base in Niamey has been overshadowed by Agadez,
capable of handling large transport aircraft and armed Reaper drones.
The base covers the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin

Somalia: US commandos are operating from compounds in Kismayo and Baledogle.

The Seychelles: Drone operations from a base on the island of Victoria.

Uganda: PC-12 surveillance aircraft fly from Entebbe airport as part
of the US special forces mission helping the Ugandan army hunt for
Joseph Kony and the Lord’s Resistance Army.

read more


Angola Prepares for Life After Dos Santos Chatham House
Africa


After sending signals of his plans to retire from politics for nearly
a year, Angola’s president, Jose Eduardo dos Santos—the
second-longest-ruling leader in Africa—announced earlier this month
that he will step down at the end of his current mandate and not run
in August elections. That will bring an end to a presidency that began
in 1979, when Jimmy Carter was in the White House. The transition from
dos Santos’ rule is the most significant political event in Angola
since its independence from Portugal in 1974, and comes at a time of
deep economic and social crisis in the oil-rich country. -

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25-JUL-2016 Countries like Zimbabwe feel like they are right at the Edge that Hunter S. Thompson described
Africa


“The Edge...There is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over''

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South Africa's Pravin Gordhan Says He Is 'Not Indispensable'
Africa


South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said he is “not
indispensable” as he prepares to present the annual budget following
almost a year of speculation that he might lose his job.

“We are just humble civil servants,” Gordhan said in an interview with
broadcaster eNCA on Monday after being asked about rumors that he and
his deputy Mcebisi Jonas may be replaced by President Jacob Zuma.
Gordhan will give his full-year budget speech on Wednesday in Cape
Town.

Conclusions


Oh Dear! Oh Dear!

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20-FEB-2017 :: rumours swirling that @sapresident Zuma is going to try and prise Pravin Gordhan out of his seat at the Treasury
Africa


The Rand has been on a tear in 2017 and has rallied about +5.5% as
investors factored in a tapering of the Zuma ‘’carte blanche’’ Now the
question is will President Zuma go quietly or are things about to get
messy with rumours swirling that he is going to try and prise Pravin
Gordhan out of his seat at the Treasury.  The South African Rand needs
close watching and again we see this political and economic
intersection in play.

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.76% 2017
Africa


Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 13.094 [Prefer to trade near-term
from the short side]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 15.802 [what a
snap back for the Egypt Pound]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

This is the biggest strengthening of an emerging market currency
over a 2 week period in 5 years #Egypt #EGP @rencapman

https://twitter.com/RencapMan/status/833601000938287104

No access to Mr President for The Guardian at London’s Abuja House

https://twitter.com/GuardianNigeria/status/833605865215111169

Nigeria naira hit a fresh low of 520 on the black market on Monday

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Nigeria edges closer to devaluation with dollar move FT
Africa


Currency made available at 20% above official rate in president’s absence

Nigeria’s central bank has edged closer to a full devaluation by
making dollars available to private individuals at 20 per cent above
the official rate.

The measure, which is partly a sop to Nigeria’s struggling elite, will
allow Nigerians seeking dollars to pay foreign school fees or medical
bills or to travel abroad to acquire them at the new rate.

The rate there went from 510 to 550 on news of the new measures,
suggesting that the government is still a long way from closing the
gap between the official and parallel rates. Officially, the naira
trades at 305.

Conclusions

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The fundamental paradox at the heart of President Buhari's government is the Naira
Africa


The fundamental paradox at the heart of President Buhari's government
is the Naira. Investors are sidelined waiting for President Buhari's
moment of Epiphany. One senses some Folks are watching a ''Hail-Mary''
Pass - The Price of Crude Oil - and if that Pass does not come off
then problems are set to be compounded.

read more



Famine declared in parts of South Sudan FAO
Africa


War and a collapsing economy have left some 100,000 people facing
starvation in parts of South Sudan where famine was declared today,
three UN agencies warned. A further 1 million people are classified as
being on the brink of famine.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the
United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and the World Food Programme
(WFP) also warned that urgent action is needed to prevent more people
from dying of hunger. If sustained and adequate assistance is
delivered urgently, the hunger situation can be improved in the coming
months and further suffering mitigated.

The total number of food insecure people is expected to rise to 5.5
million at the height of the lean season in July if nothing is done to
curb the severity and spread of the food crisis.

Conclusions

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Kenya Said to Be Near $800 Million Loan With Citibank, StanChart
Kenyan Economy


East Africa’s biggest economy is expected to sign the three-year
facility with Citigroup Inc., Standard Bank Group Ltd., Standard
Chartered Plc and Rand Merchant Bank by tomorrow, the person said,
declining to be identified because he isn’t authorized to speak on the
matter.

The government also secured $500 million from lenders led by the Trade
and Development Bank, an East African trade-finance bank based in
Burundi, the person said. The 10-year loan is in addition to the $250
million it raised from the same lenders last month.

The nation faces debt repayments of about $8 billion this year,
including interest, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Kenya,
which hasn’t ruled out a Eurobond sale, may borrow as much as 250
billion shillings ($2.4 billion) externally in the fiscal year that
begins on July 1, the person said. That’s more than the 206 billion
shillings the government said it will raise in budget estimates
submitted to parliament last week.

Spokesmen for both Citigroup and Standard Bank referred questions to
the Kenyan Treasury. Standard Chartered and RMB declined to comment.

Kenya plans to raise 154 billion shillings through external borrowing
in the current budget year that ends June 30, to finance a deficit
estimated by the Treasury at 9.6 percent of gross domestic product.

read more


I burned a farm in Africa Land invasions in Kenya portend election violence Economist
Kenyan Economy


AT KIFUKU, a cattle ranch in Kenya, the dry-stone walls are
reminiscent of England; by the farmhouse, a pair of boats sit on an
artificial lake. The farm has, however, been anything but calm of
late. Since September dozens of cattle-ranchers, some with assault
rifles, have driven their cattle onto the farm’s 8,000 acres (3,238
hectares) of grass. Buildings have been wrecked, staff beaten up and a
police officer shot and injured. “We’re all extremely tired and
frustrated and short-fused [and] scared,” says Maria Dodds, the owner.
By February 12th relief had arrived, in the form of an armoured car
filled with policemen.

The invasion of Kifuku farm is one of a series that have taken place
since 2013 across Laikipia County, a fertile plateau between Kenya’s
central highlands and arid north (see map). Much of it is covered by
private ranches and nature conservancies owned by white Kenyans such
as Mrs Dodds and international investors. The attacks appear to have
escalated in recent weeks. A tourist lodge was burned down on the
Suyian Ranch on January 29th; visitors had to be evacuated from the
Mugie Conservancy earlier in the month after a staff member was shot
dead. In all 11 people may have been killed in such clashes, according
to Reuters, a news agency.

The armed incursions have drawn comparisons to the expulsion of white
farmers in Zimbabwe. But the conflict in Laikipia, which has the
second-highest density of wildlife in Kenya, is not black against
white. John Wachira Mwai, a nephew of Mwai Kibaki, Kenya’s president
until 2013, had to abandon his farm in July. He was shot by
trespassing cattlemen and is still in a wheelchair. More than one
smallholder has been murdered and hundreds have had their livestock
stolen and their crops trampled. “The situation here is worsening day
by day,” says Samuel Lopetet Apolosiri, a community activist who works
across tribal lines in northern Laikipia. “We are facing
intercommunity conflicts, cattle rustling and killing.”

One reason for the increased conflict is drought on Kenya’s overgrazed
northern plains. Herdsmen have driven hundreds of thousands of cattle
south, cutting fences along the way to get at grass they think is
rightfully theirs. An aerial survey in April 2016 by the Laikipia
Wildlife Forum found 135,000 “visiting” cattle, about the same number
as “resident” ones. The number of visitors may since have doubled,
reckons Peter Hetz, who heads the forum.

But tensions between landowners and herdsmen, many of them Samburu,
date from well before the current drought. Efforts have been made to
ease them by, for instance, reaching grazing agreements that allow
cattle herders to bring their livestock onto private land during dry
spells. But disputes still abound. “The ranchers and the police are
colluding to intimidate us,” says one Samburu elder, who admits to
illegal grazing on Segera Ranch, but is unhappy that his cows were
“arrested” and that he was fined the equivalent of two cows. (Segera
says its fines are equivalent to the usual daily grazing rates.)

However, it is no coincidence that incursions in Laikipia have
worsened since 2013, the year that Kenya’s devolved constitution came
into effect. This established county governments, with the aim of
giving each of Kenya’s many tribes a fair share of government
revenues. An unintended consequence is that local groups now have more
incentive to fight to control county governments (and their money)
ahead of elections in August. Vote-hungry politicians are inciting
their kin to grab land and even to displace rival communities.

In Laikipia the young men carrying out armed invasions are mainly from
the Pokot and Samburu tribes. Mathew Lempurkel, the member of
parliament for Laikipia North, blames the violence on the police, and
says that herdsmen are justified in shooting back. “If the government
becomes a threat, the people have to protect themselves,” he says. But
others accuse Mr Lempurkel, a Samburu, of inflammatory rhetoric; for
example, claiming on local radio there was no such thing as private
land in the county. “Politicians are exploiting the drought,” says
Richard Leakey, the chairman of Kenya Wildlife Service.

National politicians, from the deputy president to the interior
secretary, have said private land should be respected and the violence
must stop. The president, Uhuru Kenyatta, repeated the warning on a
voter-registration drive in the region in January. But many of those
affected in Laikipia suspect the government of ignoring the invasions
to avoid jeopardising its vote. Mrs Dodds says she appreciates the
efforts of the police who protect Kifuku. The farm will recover when
the herders leave for new pastures, says her husband, Anthony Dodds.
But he worries about the hundreds of smallholders on Kifuku’s southern
borders: “They’re really on their knees.”

read more



Sh214 million livestock insurance payout for drought-hit pastoralists Business Daily
Kenyan Economy


The Kenya Livestock Insurance Programme (KLIP) will pay pastoralists
in six counties affected by drought Sh214 million to cover their herd
losses.
Announcing the payout plan Monday, Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Willy
Bett said 12,000 pastoral households, mainly from arid and semi-arid
areas, will benefit.
The insurance programme, which was initiated by the government in 2015
in partnership with selected insurance firms, is aimed at averting
losses that might occur as a result of low pasture in the grazing
fields.
“We will today embark on payment of Sh214 million to farmers whose
livestock are faced with imminent death as a result of the ongoing
drought,” said Mr Bett.
The programme is targeted at vulnerable pastoralists who receive
drought insurance protection for five tropical livestock units (TLU),
which is an equivalent to five cattle, or 50 goats, with an insured
value of Sh14,000 per TLU per year, or Sh70,000 for five TLUs per
household.
The government supports these pastoralists through premium funding,
having paid the underwriters Sh160 million when the project was
launched in 2015/2016 short rain seasons.

read more



Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.55
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -6.51% 2017

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

The All Share is +2.80% in February but -6.5% through 2017

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -7.56% 2017

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

NSE20 is +5.416% in February but -7.56% in 2017

read more





Equity to roll out agency banking in Zanzibar expansion plan
Kenyan Economy


Equity Bank is set to roll out agency banking in Zanzibar, where it
commenced operations last week with its first branch on the island.
The lender is now operating 14 branches in Tanzania, where it set up
shop in 2012 with an initial two branches. Equity Bank Tanzania
managing director, Joseph Iha said the lender will embrace the agency
banking model adopted by its parent bank in Kenya, where over 25,000
agents processed 46 million transactions in the first nine months of
2016.
“Our plan is to expand our presence here in Zanzibar through more
branches, agency banking and merchant banking,” said Mr Iha, adding
that the bank will target SMEs and the tourism sector.
After- tax profit
The Tanzanian operation is currently supported by over 1,050 agents
and merchants and 17 ATM outlets.
Equity currently operates in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, South
Sudan, Uganda and Democratic Republic of Congo. The lender reported an
18 per cent rise in after-tax profit to Sh15 billion for the nine
months to September.
In this, Tanzania contributed a profit of Sh300 million, while Uganda
and the Democratic Republic Congo both reported net profits of Sh500
million.
South Sudan reported a loss of Sh100 million following prolonged
instability in the country while Rwanda reported a 16 per cent drop to
Sh300 million.

read more


Equity Group share price data here -10.00% 2017
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           27.00
Total Shares Issued:          3702777020.00
Market Capitalization:        99,974,979,540
EPS:             4.59
PE:                 5.882

read more


Tanzania's energy firm Lake Oil is set to acquire the petroleum retail business of Hashi Energy.
Kenyan Economy


The acquisition will add to Lake Oil’s existing gas distribution
business in Kenya.

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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