2nd September 2015
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 02nd of September 2015

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

Macro Thoughts

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.@IMFNews 's @Lagarde warns of spillover risks from recent volatility

"What has been demonstrated in the last few weeks is how much Asia is
at the core of the global economy, and how much disruption in one
market in Asia can actually spill over to the rest of the world,"
Christine Lagarde

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A Dog Has Died - Poem by Pablo Neruda

My dog has died.
I buried him in the garden
next to a rusted old machine.

No, my dog used to gaze at me,
paying me the attention I need,
the attention required
to make a vain person like me understand
that, being a dog, he was wasting time,
but, with those eyes so much purer than mine,
he'd keep on gazing at me
with a look that reserved for me alone
all his sweet and shaggy life,
always near me, never troubling me,
and asking nothing.

There are no good-byes for my dog who has died,
and we don't now and never did lie to each other.

So now he's gone and I buried him,
and that's all there is to it.

Translated, from the Spanish, by Alfred Yankauer

One of our Puppies passed away in the Night. It was very sad.

In fact, it was Hannah who had to console her Mother.

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The view from the deck of the Nordic Odyssey (with the tugboat the Vengery in the foreground), as the ship sailed from Murmansk, in Russia, to Huanghua, in China, in July.

Because the extent and thickness of ice during the Arctic summer have
diminished in recent years, the Northeast Passage—for centuries an
obsession of explorers—could soon become an everyday part of merchant
shipping. By the middle of this century, it may be possible to
traverse the North Pole in a canoe.

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Gautam Trivedi Milky way over the Himalayas

“All mortal greatness is but disease.” ― Herman Melville, Moby-Dick;
or, The Whale

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Professional surfer Anthony Walsh, Teahupoo, Tahiti, April 2009

Just after his sixtieth birthday, Finnegan caught a pair of waves in
Hawaii that were as perfectly hollow and long-lasting as anything he
had ridden for thirty years. Getting “barreled” is the term surfers
use for the experience of being physically inside of a wave, moving
along the face as the lip cascades down from above. It is an act so
magical and strange that it almost seems as though no mortal should be
able to do it. “Being adjacent to that much beauty—more than adjacent;
immersed in, pierced by it—was the point,” he writes. “The physical
risks were footnotes.”

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China Military Parade Sets Spin Machine Into Overdrive
Law & Politics

China’s image makers are taking unprecedented measures to make sure a
volatile stock market and a deadly blast in Tianjin don’t distract
from President Xi Jinping’s message of national unity surrounding a
military parade on Thursday.

Xi’s government finds itself beset with challenges as the parade
nears, including faltering economic growth, questions about safety
regulation after the Tianjin blast that killed at least 158 people,
and concerns about the outlook for the stock market, whose plunge
wiped out $5 trillion in global stock value. That trouble compares to
Beijing’s last major international event, the 2008 Summer Olympics,
when China was riding high as western economies reeled from the
international financial crisis.

“Xi will be very concerned that nothing goes wrong as this is a
government that really wants to be seen to be given ‘face’
internationally and is trying to shore up its image to the Chinese
population after a year of disasters,” said Anne-Marie Brady, a
professor at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New
Zealand, who studies Chinese propaganda.

The event marking 70th anniversary of Japan’s World War II defeat
gives Xi a global platform to present his “Chinese Dream” of national
rejuvenation and international influence when he gives a speech before
the pageant begins. While the parade will feature 12,000 troops and
modern weapons system in a display of military muscle, concern that
Xi’s broader message risks being
overshadowed helps explain the extent of measures unveiled to ensure
the parade’s success.


Things don't look as serene and as impregnable as they did before.

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Diderot remarked that humanity would never be free until the last king was strangled with the entrails of the last priest.
Law & Politics

It might be said that the Arab world will never be free until the last
Arab king is strangled with the entrails of the last Jihadi. (As
Robert Dreyfuss has pointed out, the oil monarchies are ruled by royal
kleptocracies whose legitimacy is nil. Most Arabs know that the
monarchies were established by imperialists building fences around oil
wells. [9] The kleptocracies have a symbiotic relationship with the
imperialists. They loot the country and share the stolen wealth with
the imperialists who provide military support.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1282
Dollar Index 95.54
Japan Yen 120.19
Swiss Franc 0.9610
Pound 1.5309
Aussie 0.7027
India Rupee 66.245
South Korea Won 1176.09
Brazil Real 3.6939
Egypt Pound 7.8210
South Africa Rand 13.4028

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 95.533


Euro versus the Dollar 1 Month Chart 1.1282 [The New Gold]


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Oil’s bungee cord snapped back Tuesday, extending the market’s wildest swings in seven months.

After surging 27 percent in three days, prices tumbled almost 8
percent Tuesday. At the heart of the reversal were doubts that OPEC
and other oil exporters will be able to coordinate a production cut.

"We haven’t had that Goldilocks moment -- it’s always too hot or too
cold," Carl Larry, head of oil and natural gas for Frost & Sullivan
LP, said by phone from Houston. "We’re all a lot like OPEC right now
in trying to find fair value."

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Crude Oil Volatility Index climbed
to the highest level since March 17. The gauge of hedging costs on the
U.S. Oil Fund, the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking WTI, advanced
40 percent in August, the most this year.

WTI for October delivery dropped $3.79 to close at $45.41 a barrel on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $37.75 on Aug. 24,
the lowest since Feb. 24, 2009.

Even as speculation bubbled that producers would rein in output,
concern increased that demand from China may slow.

"All of Asia appears to be falling apart, not just China, and that’s
the demand center of the world," John Kilduff, a partner at Again
Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund, said by phone. "We’re going
to return to the recent lows."

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“The good times are over,” Jankiel Santos, chief economist at BESI Brazil, “Brazil is in a difficult situation, and needs to correct the excesses of the past.”
Emerging Markets

Brazil’s economy bled almost 900,000 jobs over the last year. That's
unheard of, even in the aftermath of the 2008 Lehman Brother’s crisis.

Brazilians have cut back the most on shopping since the start of the
century. Retail sales in June dropped for the fifth straight month,
the longest declining streak since 2001, data from the national
statistics agency show.

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President thinks a coalition will strengthen him but his suspicion of Rwanda grows as fears of civil war increase

Instability is accelerating in the wake of Pierre Nkurunziza's
election to a third term as President and his swearing in on 20
August. Two senior officers have been assassinated. Grenade attacks
and other violence have claimed 100 lives and the number of refugees,
mainly Tutsi, in neighbouring countries has reached over 200,000. Over
1,000 people have been detained.

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31-AUG-2015 China's Volatility Causing Influenza Across Africa. @TheStarKenya

This heightened and hyper inter- national volatility has infected
African equity and currency markets. In particular, 30 per cent of our
exports from Africa go to China [compare that to the US where just one
per cent of their exports go to China] and it is this inter-
connectedness which is spreading an influenza across sub-Saharan
markets. Commodity markets have crashed [notwithstanding a more than
10 per cent rally in oil at the end of the week] and what is clear now
is that SSA is going to under- shoot even the most pessimistic GDP
forecasts. The unwinding of the super-cycle in commodities changes
everything in Africa.

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.@SAPresident Zuma escapes impeachment bid over Al-Bashir

The choice was between "the rule of law and the the rule of big men
where might is right", DA parliamentary leader Mmusi Maimane told the

South African President Jacob Zuma Tuesday escaped a bid in parliament
to impeach him over the government's refusal to arrest Sudanese
President Omar al-Bashir on genocide charges brought by the
International Criminal Court.


Zuma was never going to send Bashir to the ICC.

The African blow-Back would have just been too fierce.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg -2.92% yesterday -2.52% in 2015


48,515.13 -1,457.20 -2.92%

Dollar versus Rand 1 Month Chart INO 13.402


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg -19.30% 2015 [+8.25% since 24th August]


7,203.86 -48.57 -0.67%

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Uber Links With Kia to Expand Fivefold in Africa's Biggest City

Uber Technologies Inc. is negotiating cheaper deals for new vehicles
with Kia Motors Corp. to boost its number of drivers fivefold in the
Nigerian city of Lagos, Africa’s biggest, to 3,000 by the end of next

The U.S. car-booking company has signed agreements with the South
Korean carmaker and Lagos-based Access Bank Plc to reduce the
down-payment required for new vehicles to 95,000 naira ($477) from
almost 200,000 naira, with the balance payable over four years, Alon
Lits, Uber’s general manager for sub-Saharan Africa, said in an
interview in Lagos on Aug. 28.

“Since we launched in Lagos just over a year ago, more than 600 job
opportunities have been created using the application,” Lits said.
“That’s really just the beginning. We feel that the number can be well
over 3,000 by the end of 2016.”

Uber’s growth in Lagos can match the speed of take-up in South Africa,
according to Lits. The company’s drivers in Africa’s most
industrialized economy have taken passengers on more than 2 million
journeys this year, compared with about 1 million in 2014, the company
said in July. Lits sees the number of South African drivers growing to
about 15,000 by the beginning of 2017 from 2,000 now.

“Lagos is three times the size of greater Johannesburg,” he said,
referring to its population. “It’s a huge opportunity here.”

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Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -12.788% 2015 [+7.42% since 26th August]

30,225.34 +540.50 +1.82%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -4.82% 2015


2,152.36 -2.41 -0.11%

“In Africa, a son who migrates is the family’s dream come true; they
think it’s the end of their problems,” said Sarr


“In Africa, a son who migrates is the family’s dream come true; they
think it’s the end of their problems,” said Sarr as he flicked through
the channels of a flat-screen TV. “It takes courage and ambition to

Across sub-Saharan Africa, remittances sent home climbed to an
estimated $33 billion last year, according to the World Bank. Those
funds are crucial to many of the region’s economies, including in
Gambia, Liberia, Somalia, and Nigeria.

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Goma (DR Congo) (AFP) - Eight Muslim preachers from Tanzania who were kidnapped last month in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have escaped

The preachers, seized in the restive province of North Kivu in early
August, "took the chance to flee during fighting" between the
Congolese army and the ethnic Hutu militia Democratic Forces for the
Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), provincial governor Julien Paluku told

The kidnappers were clearly FDLR members, he added, because "as soon
as the fighting broke out, they fled".

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A view over Lake Kivu and Goma, the capital of North Kivu province

Commodities in Africa How natural resources breed violence Economist


However, identifying a systematic link between natural resources and
violence in Africa has proven tricky for economists, who must usually
work with small or insufficiently detailed datasets.

A new paper from four academics at Swiss universities tries to get
around the problems faced by previous studies.* For each year from
1997 to 2010, the authors gathered detailed data on the location of
hundreds of mines and thousands of conflict events (including riots
and violence against civilians) across Africa. Then they divided the
continent into 10,000 cells measuring half a degree of latitude and
half a degree of longitude (about 55 km squared at the equator). All
of this allowed them to analyse the effect of changes in the world
price of 15 minerals on the areas in which that commodity is produced.

Over the period of the study, mineral prices more than doubled, thanks
in particular to ravenous demand from China. Some commodities grew
even more expensive: in 1997 an ounce of gold cost about $300, but by
2010 it was going for well over $1,000.

In some ways the continent benefited from the juicy prices. Thanks to
strong commodity exports, from 1997 to 2010 sub-Saharan Africa’s
economy grew at 5% a year. But the paper finds that dearer minerals
also led to fiercer competition over mines, with shockingly violent
consequences. Had mineral prices remained at their levels from 1997,
the paper calculates, over the subsequent 13 years the average African
country would have seen 25% fewer violent events. Higher prices were
responsible for 65% of the outbreaks that took place in South Africa.
Even these results may be an underestimate, since the proceeds from
mines in one area may have been used to fund conflicts in others.

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“We have demanded major changes in the management. I have had a series meetings with the board to demand the changes. We have made it clear that the restructuring must happen''
Kenyan Economy

“We have demanded major changes in the management. I have had a series
meetings with the board to demand the changes. We have made it clear
that the restructuring must happen. It is important not to be
emotional and ask them to leave now but first we must know the cause
of the loss,” the CS told the Senate select committee
chaired by
Kisumu Senator Anyang Nyong’o at Parliament Buildings.

The board of Kenya Airways and the top management will be sent home in
a drastic plan to return the national airline on the path to profits.
Also on the chopping board is the long running agreement with Dutch
airline, KLM, which is set for a review.

The government is a major shareholder in the airline, and is preparing
a “turnaround plan” for the carrier that has been in the red over the
last three years.

Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich Tuesday told a Senate team
inquiring into the troubles gripping the airline that the plan was at
an advanced stage.

Other than the expected dismissal of the top brass, the government
will also propose new pricing, an overhaul in the plan to buy new
aircraft and also re-look into the partnerships signed by the airline.

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The government is considering a Sh60 billion bailout for KQ. @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy

In order to ensure that the company keeps afloat, the government has
provided short term support by way of a shareholder loan of Sh4.2

The amount is intended to help the airline meet its financial
obligations, particularly paying off crucial creditors like fuel

Additionally, the government has provided support to KQ to access a
Sh20 billion bridging facility from Afrexim Bank for working capital.

Mr Rotich said the short term facility and will be received in two
tranches of Sh10 billion each.

The government owns 29.8 percent of the ordinary shares of Kenya
Airways Ltd, KLM owns 26.73 percent and IFC owns 9 per cent.

Mr Rotich said KLM and IFC were waiting for the restructuring plan
from KQ management before deciding whether to participate in the
bailout or not.

“For those shareholders, it’s wait and see. But for us, we had to come
up with a plan on an interim basis to keep the airline in business,”
he said.

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03-AUG-2015 In my opinion its about capital. KQ needs partners and shareholders with much deeper pockets.
Kenyan Economy

This is the reality. A few months ago, I called for a serious
discussion with the Gulf carriers. They have deep pockets. It is a no-
brainer discussion.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 104.15
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -12.137% 2015 [+4.079% over 3 Trading sessions]


143.12 +0.32 +0.22%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -18.766% 2015 [72.38 points above 2015 Low
from 27th August]


4,153.21 -23.38 -0.56%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


“Africa Oil is pleased to announce that it closed the $50 million (Sh5
billion) non-brokered private placement previously announced on August
18,” said chief executive Keith C. Hill in a statement released


Africa Oil, Tullow Oil partner in exploration, has closed a Sh5
billion equity sale to the International Finance Corporation (IFC).

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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September 2015
08-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 8th April 2011
07-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 7th April 2011
06-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 6th April 2011
05-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 5th April 2011
04-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 4th April 2011
01-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 1st April 2011

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