23rd September 2017
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 22nd of September 2017

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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

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Kilimanjaro from Amboseli. Photo by @oonat

Mount Kilimanjaro ( /ˌkɪlɪmənˈdʒɑːroʊ/),[7] with its three volcanic
cones, "Kibo", "Mawenzi", and "Shira", is a dormant volcano in
Tanzania. It is the highest mountain in Africa, and rises
approximately 4,900 metres (16,100 ft) from its base to 5,895 metres
(19,341 ft) above sea level. The first persons known to have reached
the summit of the mountain were Hans Meyer and Ludwig Purtscheller in
1889. The mountain is part of the Kilimanjaro National Park and is a
major climbing destination. The mountain has been the subject of many
scientific studies because of its shrinking glaciers and disappearing
ice fields.

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Kim Jong Un, in an extraordinary and direct rebuke, called President Donald Trump "deranged" and said he will "pay dearly" for his threat
Law & Politics

Hours later, North Korea's foreign minister reportedly said that his
country may be planning to test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean
to fulfill Kim's vow to take the "highest-level" action against the
United States.

Kim, in his statement, said Trump is "unfit to hold the prerogative of
supreme command of a country." He also described the U.S. president as
"a rogue and a gangster fond of playing with fire."

North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho told reporters on the
sidelines of a United Nations gathering that his country's response
"could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb in the Pacific,"
according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency.

Ri reportedly added that "We have no idea about what actions could be
taken as it will be ordered by leader Kim Jong Un."

Kim characterized Trump's speech to the world body as "unprecedented
rude nonsense."

He said Trump's remarks "have convinced me, rather than frightening or
stopping me, that the path I chose is correct and that it is the one I
have to follow to the last."

Kim said he is "thinking hard" about his response and that he would
"tame the mentally deranged U. S. dotard with fire."

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Law & Politics

“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the
parabola.  ey must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to
believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward
that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no
second chance, no return.’’

One of the strategies of the pre-regime change moment has been to
demonise the other leader. And front and centre in Kim’s mind must be
the image of Saddam Hussein on the occasion of Eid-Ul-Udha being hung
by his neck and of Muammar Gaddafi meeting his death after having been
sodomised with a bottle. When you view things from Kim the rocket
man’s perspective, you might appreciate that far from being illogical,
he is in fact being ruthlessly logical and he is speaking the language
his adversaries understand lucidly. 10 m folks in Seoul just 60 kms
from the border, 28,500 US soldiers are all in the line of fire.

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18-SEP-2017 :: unlikely that the West has anything to offer the Chinese that can compensate them for the loss of their hinterland, buffer and instrument of attack
Law & Politics

When you look at geopolitical alignment, it is entirely unlikely that
the West has anything to offer the Chinese that can compensate them
for the loss of their hinterland, buffer and instrument of attack.

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The search for a Trump doctrine is like the hunt for the Loch Ness monster. Does it have one hump or two? How long is its neck? Is it a mammal or a reptile?
Law & Politics

The only thing all this makes clear is that Trump has no coherent
foreign-policy stance. He only has instincts, many of which have
lately run up against the realities he faces as the leader of the sole
global superpower. He assumes that the United States has a divine
right to behave as it likes, regardless of its previous commitments.
He mistakes belligerence for power. He fetishizes strongmen. And he is
disdainful of problems he views as liberal confections. (Nowhere in
his speech did he mention climate change.)

As a columnist for the People’s Daily, an official newspaper of the
Chinese Communist Party, noted, the “risky game of chicken” between
Trump and Kim continues. On Thursday, Trump, after meeting with
President Moon Jae-in of South Korea, announced that he is extending
U.S. sanctions on individuals and firms that do business with
Pyongyang. This move seemed to indicate that for now, at least, he is
sticking to the diplomatic path. But that raised the question of how
much of his fiery rhetoric is brinksmanship, and how much of it is
real. The scary thing is, nobody knows for sure. Perhaps not even the
President himself.

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S&P downgrades China, says rising debt is stoking economic, financial risks
International Trade

S&P Global Ratings downgraded China’s long-term sovereign credit
rating on Thursday, less than a month ahead of one of the country’s
most sensitive political gatherings, citing increasing risks from its
rapid build-up of debt.

S&P’s one-notch downgrade to A+ from AA- comes as Beijing grapples
with the challenges of containing financial risks stemming from years
of credit-fueled stimulus to meet ambitious government economic growth

“The downgrade reflects our assessment that a prolonged period of
strong credit growth has increased China’s economic and financial
risks,” S&P said in a statement, adding that the ratings outlook was

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1958
Dollar Index 92.02
Japan Yen 111.81
Swiss Franc 0.9677
Pound 1.3580
Aussie 0.7924
India Rupee 65.065
South Korea Won 1138.91
Brazil Real 3.1374
Egypt Pound 17.6590
South Africa Rand 13.2632

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Alrosa's 27.85 carat pink diamondSource: Alrosa PJSC

Alrosa, which produces more stones than anyone else, found the 27.85
carat pink gem at its alluvial mines in Russia’s Far East. The company
said the biggest pink diamond it had previously found was less than 4
carats in weight.

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Zimbabwe to pay $1.8 billion in foreign arrears only when economy is stronger: finance minister

Zimbabwe’s Finance Minister on Wednesday said the southern African
nation would not be able pay $1.8 billion in arrears to the World Bank
and African Development Bank (AfDB) until economic fundamentals

Patrick Chinamasa said in a radio interview that a payment plan agreed
with foreign lenders in 2015 in Lima, Peru, could only proceed once
Zimbabwe has reduced its fiscal deficit from around 10 percent of
gross domestic product, cut its wage bill from 92 percent of the
budget and increased its import cover.

Chinamasa said the government had negotiated a cheaper loan to pay the
$1.8 billion but had decided against paying after realising that the
country could still remain in a debt cycle if it did not address its
economic problems.

He did not give the source of the new loan but said Zimbabwe was
paying 15 percent a year on its World Bank loan. Zimbabwe’s total
foreign debt is more than $7 billion.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +10.29% 2017

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.2632


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.6590


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +30.94% 2017


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +36.47% 2017


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Kenyan president says Supreme Court election ruling was 'coup'
Kenyan Economy

NAIROBI (Reuters) - Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta said on Thursday
the country’s Supreme Court staged a “coup” against the will of the
people when it annulled last month’s presidential election that he

“A coup in Kenya has just been done by the four people in the Supreme
Court,” Kenyatta said in a live, televised speech delivered mostly in
Kiswahili. “(The court is saying) ‘numbers don’t matter, it is
processes that matter.'”

The court’s decision on Sept. 1 was the first time a judicial body has
canceled the election of an African president and the ruling sent
shockwaves through the country and beyond.

Kenyatta said he would respect the court’s decision but said it
subverted the will of the people.

“We have reversed everything in this country by the decision of a few
people. I don’t know how history will judge these gentlemen,” he said.
“The citizen has been told he does not have a voice ... If that is not
dictatorship, then I don’t know what to say.”

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Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga has told the BBC he is committed to October's re-run, but only under certain conditions.
Kenyan Economy


If NASA compete and its a big IF then they are going to lose bigger
than the 1st time. They are short of cash, they are going to struggle
in turning out their supporters. Folks are fatigued.

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Kenyan Economy

This is the problem to which I was referring yesterday.

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Michael Joseph, the chairman, warned the government it risked "destroying your own airline" and that competitors "will eat our lunch for us" @kenyaairways @FT
Kenyan Economy

Michael Joseph, the chairman, warned the government it risked
“destroying your own airline” and that competitors “will eat our lunch
for us” if action is not taken.

“We need to have a bit more aggressive strategies in protecting our
airline and protecting our airport,” he said at a meeting with
Sebastian Mikosz, who took over as chief executive in June.

Mr Joseph said the debt-laden airline, which is nearing completion of
a massive financial restructuring programme after suffering years of
negative equity following a botched expansion strategy, will take up
the issue with the government after next month’s presidential

Kenya Airways is one of the few publicly listed airlines in the
region. The government has a 29.8 per cent stake and Air France-KLM
owns 26.73 per cent. The government’s stake is likely to increase
after the restructuring although it will remain below 50 per cent.

Ethiopian Airlines, Africa’s most profitable airline, is government
owned, as is RwandAir, which is expanding rapidly, and Air Tanzania,
which was relaunched recently.

Emirates Airline, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways, the major Gulf
carriers, and Turkish Airlines, which all fly regularly to east
Africa, are also state-controlled.

Mr Mikosz, who was appointed on the back of his success in turning
around Lot Polish Airlines, said the situation was “unfair”.

“I can only appeal to the government to look at the broader picture of
how our competition is structured and how our competition is
financed,” he said.

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@KenolKobil share price data and H1 2017 Earnings here +16.107% in 2017
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           16.55
Total Shares Issued:          1471761200.00
Market Capitalization:        24,357,647,860
EPS:             1.64
PE:                 10.091

H1 2017 Earnings versus H1 2016
H1 Sales 72.637710b vs. 36.937907b +96.648%
H1 Cost of sales [68.570962b] vs. [33.481421b] +104.803%
H1 Gross profit 4.066748b vs. 3.456486b +17.656%
H1 Other income 282.175m vs. 216.493m +30.339%
H1 Administration and operating costs [1.368955b] vs. [969.911m] +41.142%
H1 Impairment provision for KPRL Yield Shift receivable [300.000m] vs.
[400.000m] -25.000%
H1 Exchange [Losses]/ gain [25.606m] vs. 39.344m -165.082%
H1 EBITDA 2.654362b vs. 2.342412b +13.317%
H1 Finance costs [82.012m] vs. [97.997m] -16.312%
H1 Depreciation and amortization [491.902m] vs. [518.941m] -5.210%
H1 Profit before income tax 2.080448b vs. 1.725474b +20.573%
H1 Profit for the period 1.422459b vs. 1.189937b +19.541%
Closing cash and cash equivalents 2.715795b vs. 977.398m +177.860%
Interim dividend 0.30 vs. 0.15 100.000%

Company Commentary

a great set of results for the first half of 2017 with improved
profitability and volume growth reported across all our key focus and
target business segments.
H1 Net profit 1.422b versus 1.189b
Group Revenue was +97% mainly driven by increased international oil
prices and volume growth.
Interim Dividend of 30cents a share


strong muscular H1 Earnings off the back of a startling Revenue gain.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +24.51% 2017


166.02 +1.24 +0.75%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +18.54% 2017


3,777.09 -6.60 -0.17%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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September 2017

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