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Wednesday 22nd of May 2013
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Morning Africa |
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as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke
Africa's quest for sustained economic growth Inside Story @AJELive
@AJEnglish Africa
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2013/05/201351184230371482.html
#Africa 's quest for sustained economic growth @AJELive @AJEnglish Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/cpzhur
I am looking forward to hosting @HabilOlaka of the @KenyaBankers at
#Mindspeak on Saturday 25th May
http://twitpic.com/cprlag
#Mindspeak is held at @InterConNairobi
http://twitpic.com/cm03ub
We serve Breakfast from 9 am The Program starts at 1000
http://www.twitpic.com/8oc8q7
#Mindspeak 2013 RICH TV
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtv.php
Macro Thoughts
Home Thoughts
The Little One told me She wants to be a Palaeontologist and I said
You can be whatever You want.
Her Teacher Mrs. Nightingale has been a Revelation.
SAN MARCO, the flagship of NATO’s counter-piracy Operation OCEAN
SHIELD, conducted the first-ever visit to Madagascar by a NATO warship
this past week @NATO_MARCOM
http://www.mc.nato.int/PressReleases/Pages/NATO-Flagship-Conducts-First-Ever-Visit-to-Madagascar.aspx
SAN MARCO, the flagship of NATO’s counter-piracy Operation OCEAN
SHIELD in Mombasa Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/co2dc1
The Deck San Marco #Mombasa Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/co7ap7
What an Adventure with the Folks of Operation Ocean Shield San Marco Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/cofvuo
06-MAY-2013 #Somalia2013 The Next Big Thing [Piracy, NATO, The London
Conference and the San Marco]
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX0605.pdf
HER Excellency Paola Imperiale the Italian ambassador to Kenya whose
surname is a linguistic clue to her style of diplomacy, invited me to
a party over the weekend on the San Marco, in Mombasa. As I surveyed
the crowd, I said to Nishet, it is clear that Paola’s invitations are
not turned down lightly. I attended the ‘Presser’ in the morning and
was Sinvited by the Rear Admiral Antonio Natale to join his crew on an
exercise out on the Indian Ocean on Sunday and then be flown back to
Mombasa via one of their helicopters. So as I write this, I cannot
help wishing I could communicate with my ancestors who came to Africa
on a dhow and I am sure would have appreciated the speedier transport
of the Italian navy.
Rear Admiral Natale is the Commander of Standing NATO Maritime Group
(SNMG2) assigned to NATO’s counter piracy mission, Operation Ocean
Shield. And during his press conference he confirmed that so far in
2013 there were no attacks, approaches or disruptions in the area [The
area covers the Horn of Africa, including the Gulf of Aden and the
Western Indian Ocean up to the Strait of Hormuz. An area greater than
2 million square miles or approximately the size of Western Europe].
Tim Carstens whom I met through Ambassador @GeoffTooth and is the MD
of Base Resources has readied his Rhino Charge Vehicle
http://www.twitpic.com/csb88k
#Mindspeak with Tim Carstens RICH TV
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtv.php?d=MjAxMi0xMi0zMQ%3D%3D |
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Syria highlights US political impotence Asia Times Law & Politics |
"Nothing illustrates more the limitations of Western power than the
internal controversy its elites are having in public about what the
United States in particular and Western European states should be
doing about the civil war in Syria."
Those limitations are palpable in both language and action. A
political and military vacuum created by past US failures and forced
retreats after the Iraq war made it possible for countries like Russia
to reemerge on the scene as an effective player.
Concurrently, Russia's position remains unswerving and constantly
advancing while the US is pushed into a corner, demonstrating an
incapacity to react except for condemnations and mere statements. Much
to the displeasure of its Arab allies.
Russia's recent delivery of sophisticated anti-ship missiles and its
own buildup of warships in the eastern Mediterranean is a case in
point. The move was condemned by the Obama administration as one that
is "ill-timed and very unfortunate".
The current American political impotence in the Middle East is
unprecedented, at least since the rapid disintegration of the Soviet
bloc in the early 1990s.
In this new reality, the US is incapable of reshaping reality but
merely trying to offset or control its unfavorable outcomes.
"What the United States (and western Europe) want to do is 'control'
the situation," Immanuel Wallerstein argued. "They will not be able to
do it. Hence the screams of the 'interventionists' and the
foot-dragging of the 'prudent.' It is a lose-lose for the west, while
not being at the same time a 'win' for people in the Middle East."
This "lose-lose" scenario might not necessarily translate to a
complete American foreign policy meltdown in the near future, but will
certainly open the possibility for new/old players to main serious
gains, Russia being a lead example. This will likely compel the US to
change tactics.
Middle East and North Africa: Defining the Road Ahead IMF
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/eng/pdf/mcdreo0513.pdf
Two years after the “Arab Spring” commenced, many countries of the
Middle East and North Africa (MENAP)1 region are still undergoing
complex political, social, and economic transitions. Economic
performance was mixed in 2012: although most of the region’s
oil-exporting countries grew at healthy rates, economic growth
remained sluggish in the oil importers. In 2013, these differences are
expected to narrow because of a scaling-back of hydrocarbon production
among oil exporters and a mild economic recovery among oil importers.
Growing regional economic and social spillovers from the conflict in
Syria add to the complexity of the economic environment.
The Arab countries in transition are Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco,
Tunisia, and Yemen.
Conclusions
Its hardly a Spring is it? Its practically dystopian.
"The illness of President Bouteflika will soon be no more than a bad
memory," he said Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/21/us-algeria-bouteflika-sellal-idUSBRE94K0G620130521
Since he was rushed to hospital in Paris on April 27 with what was
officially described as a minor stroke, Bouteflika has been neither
heard nor seen in public, raising widespread speculation that he is
seriously ailing.
France's Le Point magazine said Bouteflika, who was treated for cancer
in 2005, was in very poor health, with some of his vital functions
damaged. Algerian newspaper editor Hichem Aboud said he was in a deep
coma and had been brought back to Algeria.
Japan tips its hand via North Korea Asia Times
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/JAP-02-210513.html
The big story in Asia affairs today is a little trip that was supposed
to stay a secret: the dispatch of Isao Iijima, adviser to Japan's
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, to meet with senior officials in North
Korea, thereby breaking the united US/South Korean/Japanese front in
negotiations with Pyongyang.
It is the first instance of an overt divergence between Japanese and
US diplomatic and security strategies, something that has been
implicit in Japan's sometimes-inflammatory brand of nationalism under
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe - and Abe's determination to move Japan
beyond its traditional role of obedient US ally to independent
regional force.
The United States has been quietly disapproving of Japan's China
strategy - witness Kurt Campbell's statement that the US advised Japan
against nationalizing the Senkaku islands - and provocative
nationalist hi-jinks on issues like the Yasukuni Shrine, but excused
them as politically motivated exercises in domestic base-pandering.
However, the North Korean trip has revealed the cloven hoof beneath
the robe, as far as Japan's independent aspirations in Asia are
concerned.
Japan Times made it clear that the US was not consulted in advance
about the trip; US special representative for North Korea Glyn Davies
was only briefed after the visit:
Japan briefed the United States on Thursday about the surprise visit
to North Korea by an adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
After meeting with his Japanese counterpart in Tokyo, Glyn Davies, US.
special representative for North Korea policy, said he hopes to gain
more "insights" into Isao Iijima's unannounced trip in the coming
days. ...
The Christian Science Monitor calls it from the US side: "Japan's
'secret' trip to North Korea disrupts united stance against
Pyongyang." [2] South Korea was less circumspect:
"It is important to maintain close coordination, among South Korea,
the US and Japan, toward North Korea," said [South Korean] Foreign
Ministry spokesman Cho Tai-young in a media briefing. "In that sense,
we think that the visit by Iijima to North Korea is unhelpful."
As the celebratory circle jerk of stock market punters over the
soaring Nikkei continues, it should be noted that for the first time
since 1998 the growth rate of yen-weakened Japan will exceed that of
South Korea.
In an article excoriating Japan's approach to North Korea, Korea
Times' Kim Tae-gyu detoured into trade and economic grievances:
Beggar-thy-neighbor policy
Abe's flagship economic policy of depreciating the country's currency
to boost the price competitiveness of made-in-Japan products is also
under criticism as it tries to galvanize its economy at the expenses
of its neighbors.
Critics say the Abe administration's large-scale monetary easing and
the resultant fast devaluation of the yen are tantamount to economic
aggression toward Asian nations.
The weakening of currency of the world's No 3 economy spills over to
its rivals in international markets such as Korea and China whose
exporters are now panicking - it is the very essence of a
"beggar-thy-neighbor" policy.
The yen was traded near a historical high of 78 yen to the dollar last
year but it now fluctuates in the vicinity of 100. Many global
agencies expect that the depreciation is only halfway done as it is
likely to further rise to around 120 yen by the end of next year.
The weakening yen has breathed fresh life into its moribund economy,
which experienced a two-decade slump. By contrast, Korean and Chinese
exporters that compete with Japanese ones are complaining about their
substantially reduced bottom lines.
Conclusions
Whilst Japan is evidently the Point Man of @BarackObama 's Pivot to
Asia, @AbeShinzo 's very much Japan First Philosophy means he is
unlikely to take orders.
North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un Sends Special Envoy to China Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-22/north-korean-leader-kim-jong-un-sends-envoy-to-china-correct-.html
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sent a “special envoy” to China as
ties with his biggest benefactor showed signs of strain over the
North’s nuclear ambitions and the seizure of a Chinese fishing boat.
Choe Ryong Hae, vice marshal of the North Korean military and head of
its political bureau, left Pyongyang today, the official Korean
Central News Agency said. While China’s Foreign Ministry declined to
comment on the report, it was cited by the official Xinhua News
Agency.
Choe is the highest-ranking official to visit China since Kim
succeeded his late father, Kim Jong Il, in December 2011. North Korea
depends on China for fuel oil and consumer goods, and trade between
the two has dropped since Kim’s regime fired a long-range rocket in
December and detonated a nuclear device in February in defiance of
international sanctions.
Conclusions
I believe There is a great deal more coordination between the North
Koreans and the Chinese than our Media leads us to believe. And this
Coordination accelerates in the Teeth of the Pivot to Asia.
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Bank of Japan Affirms Easing After Surge in Bond Yields Bloomberg International Trade |
The Bank of Japan affirmed a plan to double the monetary base over two
years after a jump in bond yields highlighted risks associated with
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s campaign to revive the economy.
The central bank will expand the supply of money in the economy by 60
to 70 trillion yen ($683 billion) a year, as pledged in April, the BOJ
said in Tokyo today.
“The BOJ wanted to avoid causing any speculation that it may change
course on a policy of massive expansion,” said Mari Iwashita, a bond
strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo, commenting on the
absence of any reference to rising debt yields. “The focus is on how
Kuroda will address this at the press conference.”
Ten-year government debt yields rose to 0.89 percent as of 12:57 p.m.
in Tokyo from as low as 0.86 percent before the decision. That
compared with a high of 0.92 percent last week.
The yen was little changed at 102.47 per dollar, down 16 percent for
the year, a slide that’s bolstered the competitiveness of Japanese
exporters while making the cost of imported goods such as energy more
expensive. A government report today showed that exports in March
posted the first back-to-back gain on an annual basis since May 2012.
A jump in imports left Japan with a 10th straight monthly trade
deficit.
Yields on benchmark 10-year government securities climbed about 23
basis points in the two weeks through May 17, the biggest such advance
since May 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The central
bank, set to buy 70 percent of the debt sold by the government each
month, stepped in on May 15 to limit the decline in prices, announcing
a 2.8 trillion yen infusion of funds.
Price volatility for Japanese government bonds surged 2.6 percentage
points this year to 3.65 percent yesterday, the biggest advance among
26 sovereign-debt markets tracked by Bloomberg and the European
Federation of Financial Analysts Societies.
Conclusions
The Bank of Japan might get trapped in a Catch-22 where They end up
being the only Buyers of Government Debt and not just 70% of All Debt
being issued.
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South Sudan cuts oil output citing problem with exports to Sudan Reuters Africa |
South Sudan has almost halved its oil production due to a problem with
oil exports to Sudan, it said on Tuesday, adding it suspected its
rival had closed the cross-border pipeline in a possible sign of new
friction between the neighbors.
"There has been a problem with the oil production on the side of
Sudan," Mawien Makol Arik, spokesman for South Sudan's foreign
ministry, told Reuters in the capital Juba.
He said the charge d'affairs of China, which controls South Sudan's
oil industry, had said there was only a technical issue with the
cross-border oil flows.
"But we suspect it is political. We suspect that Sudan has shut down
the oil pipeline," Arik said, adding that the government had cut the
output to 105,000 barrels per day (bpd)from around 200,000 bpd
previously.
But a source in Sudan's oil ministry denied the pipeline, which
landlocked South uses to export its crude, had been shut.
"This is not true. The oil from South Sudan is being processed for
export," the source said, asking not to be named.
Conclusions
South Sudan's oil cutoff: brilliant negotiating, or suicide? By
Aly-Khan Satchu January 30, 2012
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2012/0130/South-Sudan-s-oil-cutoff-brilliant-negotiating-or-suicide
The current stand off between Sudan and a newly independent South
Sudan made me recall an anecdote told by Henry Kissinger, after a
series of negotiations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's father,
the late President Hafez al-Assad.
“Assad never lost his aplomb. He negotiated daringly and tenaciously
like a riverboat gambler to make sure that he exacted the last sliver
of available concessions. I once told him that I had seen negotiators
who deliberately moved themselves to the edge of a precipice to show
that they had no further margin of maneuver. I had even known
negotiators who put one foot over the edge, in effect threatening
their own suicide. He was the only one who would actually jump off the
precipice, hoping that on his way down he could break his fall by
grabbing a tree he knew to be there. Assad beamed.”
I will leave it to you to calculate who might be Hafez: South Sudan's
President Salva Kiir or Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir? Or both?
Further Conclusions
I had inclined to the View in this Interview below that Both Sides had
decided that after going 15 Rounds it had become very binary and
either Side could land a Lucky Punch and decided to call a Truce.
Maybe not.
New Sudan/South Sudan oil deal likely to hold RFI
http://www.english.rfi.fr/africa/20130313-sudan-south-sudan-deal-restart-oil-likely-hold
By Michel Arseneault
Sudan and South Sudan have signed another deal to restart the flow of
oil from south to north. South Sudan last year shut down the pipelines
that allow it to export oil via Port Sudan. Analyst Aly-Khan Satchu
says this agreement, unlike previous ones, is likely to hold, mainly
because Khartoum and Juba no longer approach each other like sparring
partners.
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index +54.70% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND
Zimbabwe Stock Exchange Plans IPO as Index Rallies 38% Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-21/zimbabwe-stock-exchange-plans-ipo-as-index-rallies-38-.html
Zimbabwe’s stock exchange, whose main industrial index has jumped 38
percent this year, plans to sell shares through an initial public
offering by the end of 2013, according to the country’s Securities
Exchange Commission.
The market value of shares listed on the bourse may nearly double to
$10 billion from the current $5.4 billion over the next 12 months as
it plans to start automated trading to attract more investors, Chief
Executive Officer Tafadzwa Chinamo said in an interview in Lusaka, the
capital of neighboring Zambia, where he spoke at a capital markets
conference. An IPO might value the ZSE at $15 million to $20 million,
he said.
Zimbabwe’s plans come as African bourses record some of the highest
growth rates in the world this year. The Ghana Stock Exchange, which
began automated trading in 2009, has seen its composite index rally a
global-best 47 percent. Nigerian and Kenyan markets are among the top
10 best performers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The ZSE has appointed Imara Holdings Ltd., the Botswana-listed
investment bank, and Harare-based Corporate Excellence as financial
advisers for its planned share sale, Chinamo said. The move is
different from a demutualization, which is commonly done by securities
exchanges, because the Zimbabwean government claimed ownership of the
bourse since it was established in its current form in 1974, he said.
Along with automation, which will see trading done electronically
rather than by hand, holding elections will boost confidence among
investors, Chinamo said. The southern African nation is due to hold
votes this year, ending a five-year power-sharing agreement between
Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change
party and President Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National
Union-Patriotic Front.
Nigeria Stock Exchange All Share Index +35.25% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND
Nigeria $1 bln wealth fund to start investing in June
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/72002/Business/Economy/Nigeria--bln-wealth-fund-to-start-investing-in-Jun.aspx
Nigeria will begin investing the initial $1 billion allocated to a new
sovereign wealth fund by June, a statement from the fund showed, after
it delayed the start date twice.
Africa's biggest oil producer is one of only three OPEC member states
that do not yet have a wealth fund (SWF) set up. Global markets and
investors are closely watching Africa's second-biggest economy's plans
for its SWF.
Nigeria's Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) in a late Monday
statement, also said it would allocate 32.5 percent of the fund to
infrastructure investment, the same amount for a savings pot for
future generations, 20 percent to protect against commodity price
shocks, with 15 percent unallocated.
"This formula aims to balance the infrastructure need of the current
generation and the need for savings for the future generation of
Nigerians," the statement said.
The fund faces opposition from Nigeria's powerful state governors, who
want oil savings to be distributed for spending on projects, arguing
that it is unconstitutional for the federal government to hoard money
that belongs to all three tiers of government - federal, state and
local.
Because of this, it started with a mere $1 billion, whereas the Excess
Crude Account (ECA) it is supposed to replace had nine times that
amount in it late last year. That has fallen to $5.87 billion so far
this year, as the government has made withdrawals to appease state
governors.
Dollar versus Rand 1 Year Chart INO 9.5227 Last
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1
South Africa All Share Year To Date +8.01% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 1 Year Chart INO
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d12
Egypt’s Dollar Black Market Premium Falls Amid Pound Decline Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-21/egypt-s-dollar-black-market-premium-falls-amid-pound-decline.html
The premium dealers demand for dollars in Egypt’s unofficial currency
market is falling as the pound goes through what JPMorgan Asset
Management called “non-chaotic maximum devaluation.”
The U.S. currency is selling for 7.47 Egyptian pounds in the Arab
country’s so-called black market, a 7 percent premium to the official
price, according to the average of three quotes from money exchangers
compiled by Bloomberg. That’s down from a premium of 7.9 percent in an
April 15 survey and 15 percent on April 2. The dealers, who run
currency exchange businesses in Cairo, asked not to be identified
because the trade is illegal.
The pound is experiencing “non-chaotic maximum devaluation, but still
looks like it’s somewhat expensive to fair value,” George Iwanicki,
emerging market macro strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, said
in an e-mailed report today. “The issue in Egypt is political
uncertainty, which has led to capital outflows and a very sharp ‘burn’
in the foreign exchange reserves base that the central bank enjoys.”
“The spread is closing after the pound was allowed to weaken faster
over the last month and as FX bureaus became more careful because of
increased central bank scrutiny,” Mona Mansour, chief economist at
Cairo-based CI Capital, said by phone. “But we don’t expect further
narrowing of the spread until there’s a solid government reform plan
that leads to an IMF agreement.”
The yield on the government’s $1 billion of 5.75 percent bonds due in
April 2020 advanced for a fourth day, rising two basis points, or 0.02
percentage point, to 7.55 percent. That’s the highest level on a
closing basis in more than six weeks.
Conclusions
Thats a Positive Development but it has probably run its Course.
Egypt ^EGX30 Bloomberg +1.26% 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND
AU 'not opposed' to the acquisition of African farmland by foreign investors
http://www.afriquejet.com/news/6863-acquisition-of-african-farmland-by-foreign-investors.html
At least 2.5 million hectares have been acquired by the foreign
investors in Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, Mali and Sudan.
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EABL share price data here +54.399% 2013 Record High [for the 12th Consecutive Session] Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 2/-
Closing Price: 409.00
Total Shares Issued: 790774976.00
Market Capitalization: 323,426,965,184
EPS: 13.46
PE: 30.386
It was a Pleasure spending Time with Nick Blazquez President | Africa,
Turkey, Russia & E.Europe | DIAGEO yesterday. We always cover so much
ground and this time was no exception. Nick spoke about his Bucket
List and how he had completed his first Marathon this Year. And we
even touched on Cosmology and most of the World as we find it. Thanks
Nick.
Here’s a note I sent the day after I completed the marathon to those
who helped me in the months upto the big day. As I read it now I was
clearly feeling somewhat poetic due no doubt to the emotional of
having ticked something off my bucket list and the spectacular day
that it was!
“………….
"Born to Run” is a really interesting book in which the author tells a
captivating story of elite ultra-marathoners and asserts that humans
are distance running machines and much more so than other animals. He
goes on to say that running in groups gives us energy from each other
and sustains us through team work.
I can attest to that. I've just completed the London Marathon and ran
with about 40000 others. Before the start, the nervous energy,
excitement and apprehension of the runners were palpable. This was
then replaced by a 30 second silence in memory and support of Boston
and the tragic events that happened at the Marathon there only 6 days
previously.
It was a beautiful sunny day, initially somewhat cool then warming up.
Hundreds of thousands of spectators lined the course; brass bands
playing, music blaring, little children holding their hands out to
runners who tapped them as they went by. If you had your name on your
shirt, like I did, energy poured into each runner as they heard their
names called out with encouragement to “catch those Kenyans” or
“follow the crowd”. Running round Cutty Sark and up and over Tower
Bridge were a couple of many beautiful views I took in. By mile 19
however, I wasn’t paying much attention to the views as I had to dig
deep to keep going.
The number of charities represented, literally carried on peoples
backs, sweat and tears was amazing. It was inspirational to see
runners with pictures of loved ones on their backs, running and
raising money for their chosen cause. Thousands and thousands of
individual stories, millions and millions of pounds raised for
charities.
Completing the Marathon was like reaching the summit of a mountain.
All the hard work had been done in the training before. Carving out
time in the diary and sticking to it. The Water of Life Half Marathon
scheduled at the end of March was part of my training plan and whilst
it was postponed (to a date I can’t make) because the course was water
logged, I ran the 13.1 miles on the day in commitment to those that
sponsored me.
I ran all the places I had travelled to over the preceding weeks;
Moscow, Lagos, New York and Nairobi and many others. Running through
ankle niggles and blisters, through rain and sleet and 30 degrees C.
At the end of each week I highlighted in green on my training plan
when I did well, and red when I didn’t – just like I do in work as I
track my performance!! Often times, on coming home from a trip, I
would say to Alison, “hi there, I’m just out for a run”. I couldn’t
have done it without her.
The encouragement I got from so many people was just amazing. I am so
appreciative of the support and sponsorship I received. I raised £2k
for Water Aid (Half Marathon) for a project in Ethiopia and for the
£3k for the UK Childrens Society (Marathon) and I ran the marathon in
3hr 32mins, thereby achieving all my targets. I am a very fortunate
person.
Now,…….. notwithstanding my opening comments about being born to run,
I’m not sure I’ll be running a marathon again anytime soon!
…….”
Nick
Nick also reconnected me to Seni in a Blink which was very nice.
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Seni Adetu at #Mindspeak #EABL #Tusker Lite @InterConNairobi #Africa 2.0 Diageo Kenyan Economy |
Do Watch Seni Adetu at #Mindspeak RICH TV
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtv.php?d=MjAxMS0xMi0zMQ%3D%3D
Kenya’s wealth profile through the eyes of a banker
http://www.nation.co.ke/Features/smartcompany/Kenyas-wealth-profile-through-the-eyes-of-a-banker/-/1226/1857292/-/4u80hz/-/index.html
In an industry where profit is king, forking out Sh40 million to build
a branch must be informed by a detailed analysis and good case for
investment.
“When making a business case to enter a particular market, the bank
management would need to weigh the economic potential of the area and
rate at which the set-up costs will be recovered,” says the Kenya
Bankers Association (KBA).
Looking at the branch network against the government data on wealth
distribution, a close correlation emerges, meaning that the bankers
could be right.
From the perspective of a banker, the county of Elgeyo Marakwet ranks
the poorest of the 47 counties, featuring a lone branch. This is
interesting, considering that the county is home to the largest
athletic camp — Iten — and 70 per cent of Kenya’s big athletes. The
branch network data are contained in the Annual Bank Supervision
Report released by the Central Bank last week. According to the Kenya
National Bureau of Standards’ poverty incidence survey, over half of
the population in Elgeyo Marakwet, 56 per cent, is classified as poor.
Mandera, Samburu, and West Pokot each have two branches, closely
mirroring the areas classified as marginalised. In Mandera, 88 per
cent of the population is regarded as needy. Samburu is at 73 per cent
and West Pokot at 70 per cent.
Nairobi, where 51 per cent of the country’s economic activities are
housed, is home to 514 branches or 40.7 per cent of the country’s
total branch network. Of the 514 branches in Nairobi, 53 were opened
last year. Mombasa comes in second with 108 outlets, while Kiambu,
Nakuru, Meru, and Uasin Gishu take the top five slots at 59, 57, 38,
and 38 respectively.
“This likely reflects the different levels of per capita income as
well as the geographic distribution of population,” a survey
commissioned by the Financial Sector Deepening for Central Bank in
2010 highlighted. The study looked at factors and policy consideration
by banks in setting up branches or opting for alternative channels to
serve their customers. The report informed the Central Bank decision
to permit agency banking.
Security is also key — the main reason which may explain why banks
have kept away from Elgeyo Marakwet despite its fame and fortunes. The
setting up of county governments is, however, likely to change this
outlook.
With each county expected to handle not less than Sh2 billion
annually, the attraction to get a piece of the cake may see increased
outlets in the areas now classified as marginalised.
However, according to KBA, the question of whether or not banks need a
physical presence in order to provide banking services across the
counties needs to be raised. The other question is whether the banker,
like other important institutions in Kenya, stands accused of
practising marginalisation.
In 2006, only 18.5 per cent of the bankable population had access to
accounts. Three years later, the overall financial inclusion had
increased to 67.3 per cent and the number is now over 70 per cent.
This has come about as a result of change in delivery channels; apart
from the traditional brick and mortar branch rollout, more innovative
and friendly systems have come into play.
Much of the gains have come from the introduction of mobile money and
the responding rollout of branchless agency banking models by
commercial institutions competing for the mass market. Kenyan
regulators have also been instrumental in introducing appropriate
regulations to facilitate low-income banking and strengthening saccos
and microfinance institutions.
Money transfer services have had the biggest impact, with Safaricom’s
M-Pesa signing up almost 75 per cent of the adult population.
The uptake is mainly because banking institutions have integrated
their platforms with mobile money transfer services such as M-Pesa,
Airtel Money, Yucash, and Orange Money, which has enable their clients
to access their accounts via their phones.
The impact of mobile money transfer is seen by the fact that, 17
commercial banks had signed for the services in 2012 and Sh1.5
trillion was transacted through the systems.
But a large number of Kenyans still prefer informal financial groups
due to efficiency in processing loans and low stigma associated with
formal institutions.
As at December 2012, 10 commercial banks had contracted 16,333 active
agents, facilitating over 38 million transactions valued at Sh195.8
billion with about 12.7 per cent of the money transacted using the
mobile platform. However, studies are pushing for more aggressive
deployment of agency banking, with a report prepared by the University
of Nairobi saying that all commercial banks operating retail banking
should be made to adopt the model.
“The study, therefore, recommends that agency banking as a means of
enhancing financial inclusion be highly supported and encouraged by
all players — banks, government, and licensing bodies, especially
local authorities — so as to reduce the high compliance costs in
registration bureaucracy,” the report says.
However, big banks still prefer to hang on to the big client, which
explains why in 2012 most of the 111 new branches (65 per cent) were
set up in Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kiambu counties.
In its 2012 annual supervision report, the Central Bank says it
expects financial institutions “to introduce technologically-driven
banking products that are expected to re-engineer the processes of
providing banking services in Kenya.
Conclusions
There has been a revolutionary Wind blowing through the Kenyan Banking Sector.
Safaricom share price data and FY Earnings here +40.594% 2013
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTU%3D
Par Value: 0.05/-
Closing Price: 7.10
Total Shares Issued: 40000000000.00
Market Capitalization: 284,000,000,000
EPS: 0.44
PE: 16.136
FY 2013 Earnings through 31st March 2013 versus FY through March 2012
FY Revenue 124.287856b versus 106.995529b +16.2%
FY Gross Profit 67.743420b versus 52.856310b +28.2%
FY Operating Expenses [40.643226b] versus [32.704953b] +24.3%
FY PBT 25.450565b versus 17.369400b +46.5%
FY PAT 17.539810b versus 12.627607b +38.9%
FY EPS 0.44 versus 0.32 +37.5%
FY Dividend 0.31 cents a share +40.9%
Cash and Cash Equivalents at End of Period
M-Pesa Registered Customers grew by 14.8% to 17.11m as at end March 2013
M-Pesa Revenue +29.5% to 21.84b
M-Pesa/SMS/Data Revenue increased to 32.5% of Total Revenues from 29.2%
FY 2013 M-Pesa Revenue now 18.5% versus 16.8% previously of Total Revenue
1.2m Customers using M-Shwari
FY 2012/2013 Interview with @BobCollymore CEO #Safaricom RICH #TV
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtvi.php
Safaricom FY2011/2012 Annual Results @BobCollymore Interview with
@alykhansatchu YouTube
http://j.mp/KO6zLG
Praise for the Governor Njuguna
M-Pesa The Jewel in the Crown
The Intersection Point between Mobile Operators and Banks
The Three IPADs I bought for my daughters
H2 Best Earnings Per Share Half since Listing.
Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
http://j.mp/5jDOot
Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +34.735% 2013 Record High
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +20.445% 2013
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ
I&M Bank set to debut at the stock market on June 25 Business Daily
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/I-M-Bank-set-to-debut-at-the-stock-market-on-June-25/-/539552/1858992/-/m94v91/-/index.html
I&M Bank is set to list at the stock market on June 25, completing a
reverse take-over that will merge businesses of the lender and
investment firm City Trust.
The new entity, I&M Holdings, will start trading at Sh448 per share,
the last average market price of City Trust before suspension from the
Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE).
Both City Trust and I&M Bank will operate as separate entities under
one group after the merger, with the banking arm becoming the biggest
business of the group unlike previously when City Trust, owned just
7.28 per cent of the lender. I&M Bank shareholders will hold 92.7 per
cent shares of the new entity.
“The bank will remain the operational hub of the group,” I&M told the
Business Daily.
City Trust had a market capitalisation of Sh2.6 billion at the time of
suspension of its shares from trading, while I&M Bank, whose shares
were not listed, had a total shareholders’ equity of Sh14.6 billion.
I&M Bank’s asset size of Sh144 billion as at the end of 2012, makes it
potentially the sixth largest listed lender when compared with peers
KCB (Sh367 billion), Equity (Sh243 billion), Co-operative Bank
(Sh200.8 billion), Standard Chartered (Sh195 billion) and Barclays
(Sh184 billion).
Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php
Delameres divide Sh5bn estate in succession plan Business Daily
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Delameres-divide-Sh5bn-estate-in-succession-plan/-/539552/1859144/-/knpbw4z/-/index.html
The Delameres have registered a new company, Ngombe Limited, to
inherit some 1,680 steers and 792 cows in his stable and a separate
entity to hold its real estate property.
Each steer is estimated to cost Sh65,000 while a cow is priced at
Sh140,000, meaning the company is starting with an asset base of about
Sh215 million.
The Delameres have also registered Land Limited to hold its real
estate property among them the over 50,000 acres Soysambu Ranch in
Naivasha, which is estimated to be worth more than Sh5 billion.
News of the succession plan came from documents the family has filed
with the monopolies commission and a subsequent notice in the Kenya
Gazette authorising the transaction.
“The Competition Authority authorises the acquisition of 1,680 heads
of steers and 792 heads of cows from Delamere Estates Limited by
Ngombe Limited,” reads a statement from the authority.
Conclusions
We had a lovely Lunch at Tom's with his Family and @Aidanhartley and
his that time we stayed at Lake Elmenteita @SerenaHotels
Lake Elmenteita @SerenaHotels #Kenya
http://www.twitpic.com/chl3gk
Riding along the Shore Lake Elmentaita @SerenaHotels
http://www.twitpic.com/chc1u0
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