29th July 2015
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 29th of July 2015

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

This Saturday #Mindspeak returns at the Sankara Hotel. The Guest is
the Secretary General of Unctad.

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@UNCTADKituyi is the Secretary-General of UNCTAD as of: 1 September 2013

#Mindspeak with @UNCTADKituyi will broadcast over the Top this
Saturday from @SankaraNairobi with Thanks to @SafaricomLtd #Africa 3.0

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02-JUN-2015 I expect the price of WTI crude oil to head back to $50 and there is a reasonable chance we will still print fresh 2015 lows below $44.

So yes I think it is a ‘dead-cat’ bounce and I expect the price of WTI
crude oil which was trading at $60 a barrel as I write this to head
back to $50 and there is a reasonable chance we will still print fresh
2015 lows below $44.

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@ReutersJamie Hotter than July. US oil futures -21% this month:

Home Thoughts

“If we wait for the moment when everything, absolutely everything is
ready, we shall never begin.” ― Ivan Turgenev

“However passionate, sinning, and rebellious the heart hidden in the
tomb, the flowers growing over it peep serenely at us with their
innocent eyes; they tell us not of eternal peace alone, of that great
peace of "indifferent" nature: they tell us, too, of eternal
reconciliation and of life without end.” ― Ivan Turgenev

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Obama Warns African Leaders They Must Act to Meet Challenges
Law & Politics

Obama began his address to the African Union assembly by saying that
he came before them not only as the first U.S. president to appear at
the organization but “as the son of an African.”

He also had a warning: the continent’s economic progress rests on “a
fragile foundation” and its governments aren’t fully prepared for “the
enormous undertaking” of providing opportunities for a demographic
bulge of young people who will need to find work. The continent’s
population will double to 2 billion people in the decades to come,
many of them under the age of 18.

“Time is of the essence,” Obama said. “The choices made today will
shape the trajectory of Africa and therefore the world for decades to

The continent’s leaders must do more to strengthen democratic
institutions, educate youth including women, combat a culture of
bribe-taking and barriers to starting new businesses, and overcome
ethnic and tribal strife, he said.

Many of his remarks over the course of his trip were directed at young
people and he urged leaders to recognize both their desires and their

“We need only look to the Middle East and North Africa to see that
large numbers of young people with no jobs and stifled voices can fuel
instability and disorder,” Obama said.

Essential to making that progress, Obama said, is excising the “cancer
of corruption”
that is holding back international investment and local

Obama drew cheers and applause from his audience when he decried
African leaders who cling to power. He referred to Burundi’s leader
Pierre Nkurunziza, who was recently elected to a third term even
though the country’s constitution limits the president to two.

“When a leader tries to change the rules in the middle of the game
just to stay in office, it risks instability and strife, as we’ve seen
in Burundi,” Obama said. “But if a leader thinks they’re the only
person who can hold their nation together, then that leader has failed
to truly build their country.”

He also made a sharp joke at the expense of those who try to remain a
“president for life,” encapsulated his criticism of corruption and
governance in Africa

“I don’t understand why they want to stay so long, especially when
they have a lot of money,” Obama said.

Steven Gruzd, an analyst at the South African Institute of
International Affairs in Johannesburg, said Obama’s tough language
wasn’t unexpected, though by itself won’t trigger significant changes
among Africa’s leaders.

“Some will welcome the fact that the U.S. president has raised some
thorny issues and some will say it’s none of his business and we are
not an American colony,” he said by telephone.

The U.S. president said he was redirecting America’s approach to
Africa from aid to development, with programs to help African nations
attract private investment and nurture homegrown businesses.

He also took an indirect jab at China, which has been spending on
infrastructure projects in many parts of Africa, especially some of
the less stable countries rich in resources.

While he previously welcomed China’s involvement in Africa as a way to
lift the continent’s economies, he said Tuesday that “economic
relationships cannot simply be about other countries building
infrastructure with foreign labor or extracting Africa’s natural

Throughout the trip Obama has used his status as the first American
president with African ancestry to both praise Africa’s progress and
to prod the continent’s leaders to do more to expand freedom and

He also met with regional leaders to seek support for new sanctions if
the government and rebels in South Sudan can’t reach a peace agreement
by mid-August. And he touched the bones of a 3.2 million-year-old
ancestor of humans, an experience he said gave him new perspective on
people’s interconnectedness.

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Submarine Killers: India's $61 Billion Warning to China
Law & Politics

In a dock opening onto the Hooghly River near central Kolkata, one of
India’s most lethal new weapons is going through a final outfit.

The Kadmatt is a submarine killer, bristling with technology to sniff
out and destroy underwater predators. It’s the second of four warships
in India’s first dedicated anti-submarine force -- a key part of plans
to spend at least $61 billion on expanding the navy’s size by about
half in 12 years.

The build-up is mostly aimed at deterring China from establishing a
foothold in the Indian Ocean. It also serves another goal:
Transforming India’s warship-building industry into an exporting force
that can supply the region, including U.S. partners in Asia wary of
China’s increased assertiveness.

“India’s naval build-up is certainly occurring in the context of India
moving towards a greater alignment with U.S. and its allies to balance
China,” said David Brewster, a specialist in Indo-Pacific security at
the Australian National University in Canberra. “India wants to be
able to demonstrate that Beijing’s activities in South Asia do not
come without a cost, and Delhi is also able to play in China’s

Chinese experts led by Defense Ministry spokesman Senior Colonel Yang
Yujun told Indian media this month that clashes are possible if India
views the adjacent ocean as its “backyard.”

“India wants to take a leadership role in the Indian Ocean and
ultimately become the predominant naval power,” ANU’s Brewster said.
“Its moves reflect an instinctive view among many in Delhi that if the
Indian Ocean is not actually India’s Ocean, then in an ideal world it
ought to be.”


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August 19th 2013 I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days
Law & Politics

I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days.
China's [and India's] dependence on imported crude oil is increasing
and the US' interestingly is decreasing. I am also certain the Eastern
Seaboard of Africa from Mozambique through Somalia is the last Great
Energy Prize in the c21st.  Therefore, the control of the Indian Ocean
becomes kind of decisive and with control China can be shut down quite
quickly. A Sine qua non of President Barack Obama's pivot to Asia is
US/NATO Power Projection over the Indian Ocean.

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Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message? 24th October 2011
Law & Politics

The raw feed of the capture and then death of the Liby- an dictator
Muammar Gadd- afi and his son Mo’tassim Gaddafi raise plenty of
questions. The bodies are currently lying side by side, bloodied and
half-naked on a filthy mattress in a meat locker, in Misrata.

John Donne wrote: “... Therefore, send not to know for whom the bell
tolls, It tolls for thee…”

I am left thinking, this dead Gaddafi business is one powerful
message. And today Marshall McLuhan’s prediction in The Gutenberg
Galaxy (1962) that ‘The new electronic interdependence recreates the
world in the image of a global village’ has come to pass. The image of
a bloodied Gaddafi, then of a dead Gaddafi in a meat locker have
flashed around the world via the mobile, YouTube and Twitter.

Who is in charge of the messaging? Through the fog of real time and
raw footage, I note a very powerful message. The essence of that
message being;

‘Don’t Fxxk with us! Be- cause you will end up dead and a trophy
souvenir in a fridge.’ That same person is probably repeating Muam-
mar’s comment, “I tell the coward crusaders: I live in a place where
you can’t get me. I live in the hearts of millions.”

And asking ‘Really? Are You? Or are you now very dead and in a meat locker?’

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1050
Dollar Index 96.65
Japan Yen 123.42
Swiss Franc 0.9624
Pound 1.5609
Aussie 0.7318
India Rupee 63.885
South Korea Won 1158.19
Brazil Real 3.3574
Egypt Pound 7.8286
South Africa Rand 12.5551

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Bharti Airtel - To Africa and back

In 2010, Indian telecom business was a different world. Business in
the country was tough, with wafer thin to vanishing margins, with 14
operators competing in a saturated environment. India was looking
tough for Airtel after enjoying years of market leadership. Heavy
competition, strict regulatory environment has been eating into
telecom profits.

The desire to diversify, especially into Africa, got much stronger
after a share-swap deal with South African telecom giant MTN turned
sour. In the meantime, a Dutch-headquartered Kuwaiti company called
Zain wanted to sell its loss-making telecom business across 15 African
countries. Airtel paid $10.7 billion for the business.

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Ugandan Government Spending Swells as Election Approaches

The country’s long-serving leader on Monday authorized payment of at
least $15 million to members of the country’s parliament to supplement
their travel expenses as they traverse the country campaigning in
advance of the February 2016 general election.

A Parliament spokesman, Moses Bwalatum, told The Wall Street Journal
that each lawmaker will get around $40,000—equivalent to nearly five
times their monthly pay.

The one-off payment is intended to help the lawmakers cover transport
costs driven by the recent surge in fuel costs, government officials

“This money was already budgeted for because members of parliament
were having challenges with the high fuel prices,” Bwalatum said.

But critics claim the payment is politically motivated.

“Everything is wrong with this payment: Why now?” said Winfred
Ngabirwe, the executive director of Ugandan pressure group, Global
Rights Alert. “This is purely meant to give the president political
leverage,” Ngabirwe added.

Uganda’s finance minister announced a record $7.9 billion budget—a 58%
spending increase over the previous fiscal year. Around 30% of the
budget is allocated to several departments under the presidency, where
the focus of the bulk of the spending is not specified and there are
limited checks and accountability.

With the flood of money hitting the economy, inflation is looming. The
central bank has responded by tightening monetary policy. This month
it raised the lending rate for the third time in a row to counter
inflationary pressure. But many experts predict that consumer prices
in Africa’ largest coffee exporting nation will rise steeply as the
election nears.

“There are major concerns,” says Stephen Kaboyo, a managing partner
with Ugandan fund manager, Alpha Capital Partners. “I expect a hawkish
stance from Bank of Uganda over the coming months to support short
term stability of the shilling”

The local currency has already lost around 30% of its value against
the dollar this year and fears are rife that a hefty government
spending could result into a repeat of the aftermath of the 2011
elections when heavy spending drove inflation to multi decades high,
triggering months of street protests.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +1.985% 2015

50,758.42 -543.13 -1.06%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.55 [Target 14.00]


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg -10.945% 2015


7,949.89 +62.02 +0.79%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -11.66% 2015


30,614.81 -192.73 -0.63%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -0.3095% 2015


2,254.85 -8.59 -0.38%

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National Bank reports H1 PBT 2015 +98.91% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           22.00
Total Shares Issued:          308000000.00
Market Capitalization:        6,776,000,000
EPS:             3.11
PE:                 7.074

National Bank reports First Half 2015 Earnings here

Group H1 Total Assets 124.427662b versus 109.284516b +13.85%

Loans and Advances to Customers [Net] 71.435361b versus 54.717166b +30.55%
H1 Total Interest Income 6.414571b versus 4.831549b +32.76%
H1 Total Interest Expenses 2.617851b versus 1.634969b +60.11%
H1 Net Interest Income 3.796720b versus 3.198580b +18.700%
Total Non-Interest Income 2.359032b versus 1.581176b +49.19%
H1 Total Operating income 6.155752b versus 4.777756b
H1 Loan loss Provision 332.779m versus 125.663m
H1 Total Operating expenses 3.673288b versus 3.529758b
H1 Profit before Tax 2.482464b versus 1.247998b +98.91%
H1 Profit After tax 1.732024b versus 776.366m +123.09%
H1 EPS 5.62 versus 2.77 +104.33%
Gross Non-Performing Loans 6.793635b versus 5.129935b
Insider Loans and Advances 5.510853b versus 4.784476b


Strong Results but see Tweets from Sunil Sanger below

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 102.43
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -6.01% 2015 [bounced +0.05% off a 11 1/2 month Low]


153.10 +0.08 +0.05%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -12.26% 2015 [bounced +0.41% yesterday off a
29 month Low]


4,485.71 +18.35 +0.41%

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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July 2015
08-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 8th April 2011
07-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 7th April 2011
06-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 6th April 2011
05-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 5th April 2011
04-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 4th April 2011
01-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 1st April 2011

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