Par Value: 0.05/-
Closing Price: 3.20
Total Shares Issued: 40,000,000,000
Market Capitalization: 128,000,000,000
EPS: 0.333
PE: 9.610
Swot Analysis H1 2012 versus H2011
Revenue 49.63b versus 47.11b +5.3%
Voice 68.3% of Total Revenues versus 74.8%
M-Pesa 17.1% of Total Revenues versus 11.9% +49.3%
SMS 7.9% of Total Revenues versus 8.2%
Mobile Data 6.7% of Total Revenues versus 5.1%
Total Data Revenue 31.7% versus 25.2%
OPEX +23%
SGA +26% Forex Loss 1.3b Kenya Shillings [Long Close Purchases have been hit by the FX]
H1 2012 EBITDA 14.76b -21.6%
Net Income 4.01b versus 7.63b
EPS 0.10 versus 0.19
Pretax profit fell to 5.4 billion shillings ($55.8 million) in the period from 10.4 billion a year earlier
Safaricom's average revenue per user (APRU) slipped to 438.9 shillings from 456.6 shillings a year earlier, although minutes of use jumped 57.7 percent to 123.
Chief Executive Bob Collymore told reporters the company expected its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin to finish in the low-to-mid 30s and for revenue to grow by high single digits over the full year.
"Providing the assumptions we have made about the macroeconomic environment are right, then our guidance and EBITDA margins and revenue should stay the same," he said.
“92 per cent of all Internet subscriptions in Kenya (are) on Safaricom connected devices.”
Conclusions
This Period captured the most Brutal Period of Competition. Essentially the Competition was [and in most cases still is] selling Minutes at Below Cost. The Voice Revenue Curve bottomed out, however, at the end of this Period. I reminded Michael and Bob, that there had been a similar H1 Outcome and My Analysis shows that Safaricom exhibits quite Beta, in times of High Inflation and Drought. The Macro Picture has been very high beta as well over this Period. The Shilling was the worst performing currency in the World until quite recently. Inflation is just shy of 20.00% and was at about 3.1% a year ago. I asked and was informed that the Recent Price Increase has seen some slackening in Usage [thereby freeing up the network] but this has been more than compensated by the Price Increase. So I think we are past the worse in Voice. M-Pesa continues to exhibit hyper Growth. And the Mobile Internet continues to build. Its clearly been a very tough Reporting Period, however, I think we are through the bottom in the Earnings Trend.
FY 2011 Swot Analysis
12.9% Growth in Turnover to 94.83b
9.8% Growth in Ongoing Revenue 88.20b
Voice Revenue -1.7% 63.5b which is 66.9% of Total Revenue
SMS +45.3% 7.54b which is 5.7% of Total Revenue
M-Pesa +56% 11.78b is 12.4% of Total Revenue
Mobile and Fixed Data Revenue +80.3% 5.37b which is 8% of Total Revenue
Acquisition Revenue 6.64b
Revenue Growth +14.8% +19.1% +12.9%
Minutes of Use Per Subscriber increased from 60.6 to 96.0 minutes
13.8m M-Pesa Users +45.5%
Data Subscribers 4.9m +85.6%
Mobile Data SMS M-Pesa Revenue 26% of Total Revenue
Over 500,000 Data Enabled Hand Sets and Lap Tops sold in the Financial Year
Profit Before Tax PBT 18.36b versus 20.97b -12.4%
Blended ARPU 439 versus 457
Marketing Costs +37%
Gearing 19%
Dividend Held at 20c a share
Pay Out Ratio of 61%
EPS 0.333 a Share |
