22nd March 2019
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Company Data
Kenya Airways Ltd.
Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           5.14
Total Shares Issued:          5823588269.00
Market Capitalization:        29,933,243,703
EPS:             -6.82
PE:                 -0.754

H1 Total income 52.193b vs. 50.601b +3.146%
H1 Total operating costs [53.218b] vs. [51.333b] +3.672%
H1 Operating Loss [1.025b] vs. [732m] -40.027%
H1 Other costs [2.990b] vs. [5.099b] -41.361%
H1 Loss before income tax [3.992b] vs. [5.771b] -30.827%
H1 Income tax [expenses]/ credit [43m] vs. 103m -141.748%
H1 Loss for the period [4.035b] vs. [5.668b] -28.811%
Basic loss per share [0.69] vs. [15.16] +95.449%
Diluted loss per share [0.54] vs. [15.16] +96.438%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 5.964b vs. 8.777b -32.050%


30.8% improvement in its net results for the 6 month period
Net loss before Tax -3.992b versus -5.771b
Passenger numbers 2.3m +6.6%
Cabin Factor +2.8 points to 75.9%
Turnover +3.1%
Direct operating costs +13.9% due to fuel.

Kenya Airways Chairman Michael Joseph The last 6 months have been an interesting period for KQ, there is positive energy and we are taking steps to turn the airline around."#KQResults.

The lowest EBIT margins are in Africa, despite growth in GDP, the market is not growing. This is a signal that we need to analyze how the market is evolving. CEO Sebastian Mikosz.

We carried 2.3 million passengers, achieved a cabin factor of 75.9% and on time performance of 82% within the last 6 months. KQResults.


Its a little like turning an Oil Tanker

Kenya Airways PLC 9 Month Results through 31st December 2017 vs. 31st March 2017
Total Income 80.799b vs. 106.277b -23.973%
Total Operating costs [79.493b] vs. [105.380b] -24.565%
Operating profit 1.306b vs. 897m +45.596%
Other costs [7.275b] vs. [11.099b] -34.454%
Loss before income tax [5.969b] vs. [10.202b] -41.492%
Loss for the period/ year [6.081b] vs. [9.956b] -38.921%
Gain on hedged exchange differences 1.250b vs. 708m +76.554%
Total comprehensive loss for the period/ year [4.831b] vs. [9.248b] -47.762%
Basic loss per share [1.04] vs. [26.61] +96.092%
Diluted loss per share [0.81] vs. [26.61] +96.956%
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period/ year 6.356b vs. 9.186b -30.808%

KENYA AIRWAYS domestic traffic dropped by 20 per cent during the prolonged election period last year. @bd_africa

These were our financial highlights taking into account operations, staffing as well as tax. #KQResults @kenyairways

We faced a number of challenges in the period. These were the most notable of them. #KQResults

The fuel price increase and prolonged electioneering period had the biggest impact on #KQResults @KenyaAirways CEO Mikosz @bankelele

2017 started on a good note but was later affected by the political climate in the country from August into the end of the year. However, we recorded improvements in our numbers. Chairman, Michael Joseph. #KQResults

3.4 Million passengers flew @KenyaAirways #KQResults @VinieO


Looks like it slowed down big in Q3/Q4 2017.
We need to understand how much room there is on the balance sheet.

Kenya Airways HY 2017 Results through 30th September 2017 vs. 30th September 2016
HY Revenue 54.518b vs. 54.748b -0.420%
HY Operating costs [53.075b] vs. [53.799b] -1.346%
HY Operating profit 1.443b vs. 949m +52.055%
HY Operating margin 2.65% vs. 1.73% +0.920%
HY Other costs [5.212b] vs. [5.675b] -8.159%
HY Loss before income tax [3.769b] vs. [4.726b] -20.250%
HY Loss after tax [3.802b] vs. [4.783b] -20.510%
HY Total comprehensive loss for the year [3.212b] vs. [3.238b] -0.803%
HY Loss per share [2.54] vs. [3.20] -20.625%
Total assets 142.012b
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 6.986b vs. 12.425b -43.775%

Company Commentary

Financial Highlights
Operating profit up 52% to 1.443b
Fleet costs lower by 21.9%
Overheads decreased by 8.9%
Loss after Tax reduced by 20.5% to 3.8b versus 4.78b


Improved results, better optimised balance sheet should afford some oxygen but its a long haul back to Par.

@KenyaAirways operating performance

Operating profit grew by 52% to Kes 1,443 Million,overheads down by 8.9%, with a 20.5% decrease in loss after tax #KQResults

Our cabin factor is up by 5.4% to 76.9%,passenger numbers by 3.3% to 2.3 Million as well as a 6.7% increase in Intra Africa traffic #KQResults @KenyaAirways

@KenyaAirways connects over 12,000 guests daily,with 140 landings and take offs to 53 destinations across the network #KQResults

.@KenyaAirways chairman Michael Joseph This is a long hard road. Its probably going to be a 6 12 month journey if not longer before we see the results. johnaglionby

FY Revenue 106.277b vs. 116.158b -8.507%
FY Operating costs [105.380b] vs. [120.251b] -12.367%
FY Operating profit/ [Loss] 897m vs. [4.093b] +121.915%
FY Operating margin 0.84% vs. [3.52%] +4.360%
FY Other costs [11.099b] vs. [22.006b] -49.564%
FY Loss before income tax [10.202b] vs. [26.099b] +60.910%
FY Loss after tax [10.207b] vs. [26.225b] +61.095%
Loss per share [6.82] vs. [17.53] -61.128%
Total Assets 146.144b vs. 155.685b -6.128%
Equity [44.915b] vs. [35.667b] +25.929%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 9.177b vs. 4.827b +90.118%
Number of outstanding shares 1,496,469,035

Company Commentary

Kenya Airways recorded an operating profit of 897m Year ended 31st March 2017 an improvement of 5b over previous year
Passenger numbers grew 5.4% to 4.46m
Cabin Factor up 400 basis points to 72.3%
Yield down 7.4% driven by market capacity pressure, fuel and currency
Fleet costs lower by 47.5% with fleet rationalisation
Gross Profit +35.7%
Loss after tax reduced by 61% to 10.2b from 26.2b
Overheads however went up by 8.7% compared to prior year mainly due to one off impact of restructuring costs
Finance costs increased 4.1% yy to KES 7.3bn.
FX losses decreased 62.4% yy to KES 4.1bn compared to KES 10.9bn in FY16.
Fuel derivative gains of KES 312m were recorded compared to a loss of KES 4.2bn in FY16.

Some of My Tweets from the Investor Briefing

.@michaelj2 @KenyaAirways we are starting to see more than just light at the end of the tunnel

We are getting to the end of our capital restructuring exercise @KenyaAirways Chairman @michaelj2
.@KenyaAirways CEO Mbuvi Ngunze The Turnaround is truly embedded. A lot of People had buried KQ 2 years ago. We are winning today

Winning in Africa is key for us at @KenyaAirways intra African traffic +13% Mbuvi Ngunze CEO

.@KenyaAirways 4.081b currency losses reports 10.207b FY Loss

We are moving up says @KenyaAirways CEO

We know how to do business in Africa, 60% of our revenues are from Africa @KenyaAirways CEO Mbuvi Ngunze


A meaningful improvement and surely an Earnings inflexion point.
Capital Restructuring now about 2 months away. That will be dilutive
These were a sharply improved story.

H1 Revenue 54.748b vs. 56.720b -3.477%
H1 Direct costs [32.758b] vs. [34.794b] -5.852%
H1 Fleet ownership costs [8.497b] vs. [13.143b] -35.350%
H1 Overheads Other [10.446b] vs. [10.959b] -4.681%
H1 Total operating costs [53.799b] vs. [58.896b] -8.654%
H1 Operating profit [Loss] 949m vs. [2.176b] +143.612%
H1 Finance costs [3.752b] vs. [3.476b] +7.940%
H1 Fuel derivatives [251m] vs. [1.312b] -80.869%
H1 Other costs [1.677b] vs. [4.897b] -65.755%
H1 Loss before income tax [4.726b] vs. [11.856b] +60.138%
H1 Loss after tax [4.783b] vs. [11.952b] +59.982%
H1 Net profit margin [8.71%] vs. [21.1%] -12.400%
H1 Loss per share [3.20] vs. [7.99] -59.950%
H1 Gain [loss] on hedged exchange differences on borrowings 1.545b vs. [15.047b] -110.268%
H1 Total comprehensive income for the period [3.238b] vs. [27.898b] -88.393%
Total assets 158.568b vs. 158.415b +0.097%
Total equity [38.905b] vs. [35.667b] -9.078%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.425b vs. 7.467b +66.399%

Company Commentary

Kenya Airways records an operating Profit of 949m
Passenger numbers grew 4.2% to 2.2m
Cabin Factor +3.3% to 71.5%
14 percentage points increase in Intra Africa Traffic
Yields down 7%
Operating margin improved by 5.6 percentage points


An Improvement in the Trajectory but the big ticket challenges remain

FY Revenue 116.158b vs. 110.161b 5.444%
FY Direct operating costs [67.861b] vs. [76.059b] -10.778%
FY Fleet ownership costs [29.578b] vs. [25.932b] 14.060%
FY Overheads [22.812b] vs. [24.503b] -6.901%
FY Total operating costs [120.251b] vs. [126.494b] -4.935%
FY Operating loss [4.093b] vs. [16.333b] -74.940%
FY Finance costs [7.047b] vs. [4.734b] 48.859%
FY Finance income 8m vs. 153m -94.771%
FY Loss on fuel derivatives [4.155b] vs. [7.452b] -44.243%
FY Other costs [10.812b] vs. [1.346b] 703.269%
FY Loss before income tax [26.099b] vs. [29.712b] -12.160%
FY Loss after tax [26.225b] vs. [25.743b] 1.872%
FY Loss per share [17.53] vs. [17.21] 1.859%
FY Loss on hedged exchange differences on borrowings [7.180b] vs.
[5.192b] 38.290%
FY Loss on hedged fuel contracts 1.761b vs. [2.830b] 162.226%
FY Total other comprehensive loss [3.479b] vs. [8.449b] -58.824%
FY Total comprehensive loss for the year [29.704b] vs. [34.192b] -13.126%
FY Total assets 158.415b vs. 182.063b -12.989%
FY Cash cash equivalents at the end of the period 4.827b vs. 3.267b 47.750%

Company Commentary

Passenger numbers increased to 4.23m 1.2% despite a reduction in
Available Seat Kilometres [ASK]
Cabin Factor 5%
Revenue 5% Operating Costs reduced by 5%
Gross profit improved 42%
Operating margin improved by 11 percentage points
Excluding one off impacts break even achieved in the year at operating profit
Loss before Tax reduced by 12%
Government of Kenya and KLM remain supportive of the companys efforts.
Operating Loss 4.1b in 2016 versus 16.3b on 2015
Cabin Factor 68.3%
9.7b impact of FX Losses
5.1b in realised fuel hedges losses
unwinding fuel hedges
Fleet Ownership costs at 29b 4b


Big improvement at the Operating level.
FX has been quantified and clocked a 9.7b loss
Hopefully they have now let their Fuel Hedges run off

FY Earnings through March 2013 versus FY through March 2012
FY Revenue 98.86b versus 107.897b -8.3755%
FY Direct Costs -77.725b versus -77.217b
FY Fleet Ownership Costs -11.178b versus -9.970b
FY Overheads -19.469b versus 19.404b
Operating [Loss] Profit -9.012b versus +1.306b
FY Finance Costs -1.907b versus -1.341b
Realised Gain on Fuel Derivatives 602m versus 2.508b
Other Costs -1.930b versus -571m
FY PBT -10.826b versus +2.146b
FY PAT -7.864b versus +1.660b
FY EPS -6.35 versus +3.58
Summary Consolidated Statement
Surplus on Revaluation of Property and Equipment 5.082b
Cash and Cash Equivalents at End of Year 14.393b versus 6.840b

Company Commentary

Referring to Travel Advisories
Al Shabaab
The Run Up to the Elections in Kenya
Passenger Traffic Growth Trends remain positive in ME Asia Far East Africa
Capacity into Europe reduced 22%
Fuel Costs 38.5% of Total Operating Costs
826m Staff Rationalisation Costs


These Results were telegraphed at the H1 Stage and therefore were a Known Known.
In fact, notwithstanding the tricky H2 Backdrop [Travel Advisories and the Election Period in Kenya] Kenya Airways posted a material improvement in the Second Half and pared Costs a great deal, which positions it for the Rebound.
The Core African Franchise was firm.
Rest of Africa expanded 300 basis Points to 51% for 48%.
Kenya expanded to 6% from 5%.
The Reconfiguration of the Fleet will improve Fuel Efficiency by about 20% and reduce Maintenance Costs.
The AFREXIM Bank 2b dollars Loan [which extended to Financing PDPs] the Rights Issue Proceeds means Kenya Airways has enough Cash in hand which was a concern.
It was a clearly an Annus Horribilis but I feel Kenya Airways is optimised to rebound hard.

H1 Earnings through September 2012 versus H1 through 2011
Passenger 43.645b versus 48.587b -10,171445%
Cargo and Mail 4.913b versus 4.296b +14.3621973%
Total Revenue 49.832b versus 54.932b -9.284205%
Direct costs [39.877b] versus [39.521b] +0.9007%
Fleet Ownership Costs [5.345b] versus [4.934b] +8.3299554%
Overheads [10.143b] versus [9.458b] +7.242545%
Total Expenses [55.365b] versus [53.913b] +2.693227%
Operating Loss [Profit] [5.533b] versus 1.019b -642.9833169%
H1 PBT [-6.589b] versus 2.825b
H1 PAT [-4.788b] versus 2.034b
H1 Earnings Per Share [-4.85] versus 4.40
Cash Flow Hedges [2.041b] versus [7.786b]
Loans raised 8.623b
Fuel Costs are 38.7% of Total Operating Costs
Company issues a Profits Warning for FY Ending March 2013

Company Commentary

The global airline industry was impacted by the economic downturn and austerity measures in Europe and high prices of jet fuel, the company
said in a statement to the Nairobi Securities Exchange.

Profit in the global airline industry is expected to more than halve to $4.1 billion this year from $8.4 billion in 2011, according to the
International Air Transport Association.


Kenya Airways is always high Beta. They are citing European Weakness and have issued a FY Profits Warning. They have embarked on a
Scaling Bulking Up and the Open Question remains when that will impact the Bottom Line and inflect the Earnings Trajectory.

FY 2011 Results versus FY 2010 Swot Analysis
Passenger Turnover 75.355b versus 62.838b
Cargo and Mail 6.522b versus 5.434b
Total Turnover 85.836b versus 70.743b +21.00%
Operating Profit 5.815b versus 1.839b
Operating Margin 6.8% versus 2.6%
PAT 3.538B versus 2.035b
EPS 7.65 versus 4.40 +73.86%
Final Dividend 1.50 versus 1.00 +50%


Looks like a very attractively priced share at a Trailing PE of 2.9541.

The Airline surpassed 3m Passengers
Launched 5 New Destinations
ASK Available Seat Kilometer increased by 5.5%
Southern Africa grew 16.3%
North Africa Traffic grew 25.1%
European Traffic grew 12.8%
Mid East +9.2%
Central Africa +7.2%
Domestic Kenya grew 13.7%
Overall Cabin Load Factor 69.2% versus 66.5%
Fuel Costs excluding Hedges grew 31.7% to 5.96b


These were strong Rebound Results as I had predicted in My 1st Half Analysis. Kenya Airways trades on a PE of 5.326 as at the Market Open. I expect a Push higher in the Price.

My Commentary from the 1st Half Results is here

6 Months to 30.09 2010 versus 30.09.2009
Passenger 36.739b versus 30.045b +22.27991%
Cargo and Mail 3.039b versus 2.595b +17.109%
Total Revenue 41.214b versus 33.488b +23.0709%
Total expenses 38.834b versus 33.326b +16.527%
Profit Before Tax 2.051b versus 1.229b +66.88%
PAT 1.436b versus 0.86b +66.976%
EPS 3.11 versus 1.86 +67.204%
Cash Flow Hedges -1.286b
ASK increased 3%
RPK grew by 9.3%


These are Strong 1st Half Results and if the Run Rate can be maintained We are looking at a Forward PE of 43.25 [3.11 x 2] 6.953376. That looks very inexpensive.
Average Price Over the last 5 Weeks
Average Price Over the last 5 Months
No. Of Shares Traded Over the last 5 Weeks
No. Of Shares Traded Over the last 5 Months
Market Capitalization Over the last 5 Weeks
Market Capitalization Over the last 5 Months
Data Source: Nairobi Stock Exchange
Trading Day: 21 Mar 2019
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