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Tuesday 02nd of February 2010
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Morning Africa |
www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.
If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php
The rather excellent Presentation by WolfGang Fengler World Bank Kenya Mindspeak
http://bit.ly/96cmC2
Macro Thoughts
Rumours of the Demise of Gold's Bull Run are premature.
Home Thoughts
The Girls have their Exams so its quiet at home. |
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China warns Obama not to meet Dalai Lama BBC Law & Politics |
The White House has indicated that Barack Obama intends to meet the
head of Tibetans in exile. Mr Zhu talked at length about China's view
on a possible meeting between Mr Obama and the 1989 Nobel Peace Prize
winner.
He said: "It will seriously undermine the foundations of Sino-US
political relations."
Mr Zhu, of the Chinese Communist Party's United Front Work Department,
said China would retaliate.
These comments come straight after a disagreement between China and
the US about the sale of American military equipment worth $6.4bn to
Taiwan, an island China considers its own.
Mr Zhu was speaking at a press conference to discuss the recent
five-day visit to China by the Dalai Lama's representatives.
Conclusions
China US is a little like a Pressure Cooker. |
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Huge Deficits May Alter U.S. Politics and Global Power New York Times Law & Politics |
Or, as Mr. Obama’s chief economic adviser, Lawrence H. Summers, used
to ask before he entered government a year ago, “How long can the
world’s biggest borrower remain the world’s biggest power?”
His greatest hope, Mr. Galbraith said, was Stein’s law, named for
Herbert Stein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under
Presidents Richard M. Nixon and Gerald R. Ford.
Stein’s law has been recited in many different versions. But all have
a common theme: If a trend cannot continue, it will stop. |
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US President Barack Obama unveils 2011 budget plans BBC Law & Politics |
US President Barack Obama has announced a $3.8tn (£2.4tn) budget plan
for 2011, which includes increased spending for job creation, but cuts
in other areas.He also forecast the US deficit would rise to a record
$1.56tn this year.He scrapped plans to send astronauts back to the
Moon and will seek to save $250bn by capping a range of domestic
spending programmes for three years |
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ World Currencies |
Euro 1.3895
Dollar Index 79.37
Higher Beta
Aussie 0.8791 Rates Unchanged
Real 1.8565
Rand 7.5150 Strong Manufacturing Data
Conclusions
Dollar still holds the higher Ground. Prefer to be square and ready to
short the Euro closer to 1.40. |
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Global warming makes trees grow at fastest rate for 200 years The Independent Food, Climate & Agriculture |
Forests in the northern hemisphere could be growing faster now than
they were 200 years ago as a result of climate change, according to a
study of trees in eastern America.
The trees appear to have accelerated growth rates due to longer
growing seasons and higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere. Scientists have documented the changes to the growth of 55
plots of mixed hardwood forest over a period of 22 years, and have
concluded that they are probably growing faster now than they have
done at any time in the past 225 years – the age of the oldest trees
in the study. |
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Chefs Cook Up Cocktails WSJ Food, Climate & Agriculture |
At most bars, the Sazerac is a simple mix of whiskey, bitters and a
touch of sugar. In the hands of Chicago chef Grant Achatz, the classic
cocktail turns into a deconstruction of flavors: Peychaud bitters are
made into pudding dots, whiskey is transformed into gelée and the
"drink" is served in an edible syrup-poached kumquat. |
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Dubai Bailout Rally Evaporates on Standstill Silence Bloomberg Emerging Markets |
Dubai’s failure to reassure investors its restructuring plan will
succeed is causing the emirate’s benchmark stock index to drop the
most in the world and forcing companies to scrap bond sales.The Dubai
Financial Market General Index lost 13 percent since Dec. 14, wiping
out a rally sparked by Abu Dhabi’s bailout of Dubai World that day.
Bonds of the state-owned company’s property developer Nakheel PJSC
sank to 56 cents on the dollar from 67.5 cents, while credit default
swaps on Dubai government debt trade at 491.5 basis points, near the
highest level since Abu Dhabi’s fund injection.
Dubai World, in talks to reschedule $22 billion of debt, failed to
present an offer in a meeting with lenders in December and declined to
say when a deal may be struck. Dubai Electricity & Water Authority
said Jan. 17 it delayed a $1.5 billion bond sale as borrowing costs
were too high.Lack of clarity on Dubai World’s restructuring plan “is
creating uncertainty that is weighing heavily on the market,” said
Rami Sidani, the Dubai-based head of Middle East and North Africa
investment at Schroder Investment Management Ltd., which oversees
about $230 billion worldwide. “We’re not out of the woods yet and we
know Dubai will continue to struggle with a debt burden.”
The Dubai stock index has since posted the biggest decline among
benchmark equity gauges in the world’s 70 largest markets. While
global stocks have retreated on concern China will take steps to curb
economic growth, the Dubai measure’s 13 percent loss compares with a
4.3 percent decline in the MSCI AC World Index.
Conclusions
The Problem is at the Very Apogee of Government and an inability to
deal with the Reality. |
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Debt-Laden Dubai May Spend ‘Billions’ on Airport Expansion Work Bloomberg Tourism, Travel & Transport |
Dubai Airports, the government-owned airfield operator, plans to seek
approval for expansion plans costing “billions of dirham,” undeterred
by the emirate’s need for a $20 billion bailout last year. “Dubai’s
vision, attitude towards airport infrastructure is that if you
constrain, the growth will go elsewhere,” he said. “So we are not
going to constrain that growth.”
Dubai International Airport, the 17th-biggest worldwide in terms of
passengers, handled 40.9 million travelers last year, a 9.2 percent
increase. The airport operator expects passenger numbers to rise 14
percent this year to 46 million.
The airport’s capacity is due to rise to 75 million passengers a year
in 2012 from 60 million now. That will be followed by an increase to
as much as 97 million, Griffiths said.
Conclusions
“Unless it comes as a partnership with said Abu Dhabi, it seems to be
a very ambitious plan and we’d need to see the plans and understand
more about how they intend to fund” any new infrastructure plans,
Maclean said.
Its catching is complete Delusion. |
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Castle in the Air Dubai reaches for the sky The New Yorker RealEstate, Housing & Construction |
Erecting the tallest building in the world is a pursuit both pointless
and exhilarating. Someone will always build a bigger one, but that
doesn’t diminish the intense allure of height, which can make a
building famous whether or not there is anything else to recommend it.
Frank Lloyd Wright, who never much liked cities, understood this
perfectly when, in 1956, he unveiled a fantasy known as the Mile High
Illinois, a five-hundred-and-twenty-eight-story tower that he proposed
for downtown Chicago, overlooking Lake Michigan.The Burj Khalifa, in
Dubai—the new holder of the title of World’s Tallest Building—is no
less extravagant a media gesture. Unlike Wright’s design, to which it
bears a startling resemblance, this building is very real—all one
hundred and sixty stories (or two thousand seven hundred and seventeen
feet) of it. For decades, skyscrapers have been topping each other in
only small increments: Kuala Lumpur’s Petronas Towers (one thousand
four hundred and eighty-two feet) are thirty-two feet taller than
Chicago’s Sears Tower (or Willis Tower, as it is now called); the
Shanghai World Financial Center is about a hundred and thirty feet
taller than the Petronas Towers; Taipei 101, in Taiwan, is fifty feet
taller than the Shanghai tower; and so on. But the Burj Khalifa
represents a quantum leap over these midgets. Even if you put the
Chrysler Building on top of the Empire State Building, that still
wouldn’t equal its height
At the building’s opening, Dubai announced that the skyscraper would
bear the name of Abu Dhabi’s ruler, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed
al-Nahyan. It’s as if Goldman Sachs were to rename its new
headquarters the Warren Buffett Tower. The tower is a shimmering
silver needle, its delicacy as startling as its height. You would
think that anything this huge would dominate the sky, but the Burj
Khalifa punctuates it instead.
The Woolworth Building, the Chrysler Building, and the Empire State
Building, each of which was the world’s tallest for a time, were all
put up to announce the primacy of their city to the world, and they
succeeded. That’s just what Asian and Middle Eastern countries are
trying to do now. You don’t build this kind of skyscraper to house
people, or to give tourists a view, or even, necessarily, to make a
profit. You do it to make sure the world knows who you are. |
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Nina Wang’s Fortune Belongs to Charity, Judge Rules Bloomberg Misc. |
Late billionaire Nina Wang’s fortune belongs to the charity she
founded and not a geomancer who said he was her lover, Hong Kong’s
High Court ruled today in a legal saga that has gripped the city’s
public for more than a decade.A 2006 will produced by feng shui
practitioner Tony Chan to claim the estate was rejected as invalid by
Judge Johnson Lam in a judgment handed down in the Court of First
Instance. The judge upheld a 2002 will that gave the money to
Chinachem Charitable Foundation Ltd., run by Wang’s family members.
Forbes estimated Wang to be worth $4.2 billion in 2007, the year that
she died, making her Asia’s wealthiest woman at the time. Hong Kong
media reports have put the estate’s value at between $6.4 billion and
nearly $13 billion. Court documents released today did not specify an
amount.The legal battle for the fortune initially amassed by her
husband Teddy Wang has often dominated Hong Kong’s media, with
accounts of kidnap, sex and feng shui rituals. The battle may not be
over as Chan has the right to appeal the decision.
Conclusions
Quite a Tale |
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UN chief warns on Sudan secession push Barney Jopson FT Law & Politics |
Ban Ki-Moon, UN secretary-general, has pledged to “work hard” to avoid
the secession of south Sudan in a referendum next year, a position
that risks setting the international community against proponents of
independence in the region.
“Whatever the result of the referendum, we have to think how to manage
the outcome. It is very important for Sudan but also for the region,”
Mr Ban said at an African Union summit in Addis Ababa. “We’ll work
hard to avoid a possible secession.”
Mr Ban’s comments appeared to signal the start of an international
effort to prevent the break-up of Sudan over fears that independence
could stir secessionist sentiments across Africa and reignite civil
war in the country itself.The UN chief’s views were echoed by Jean
Ping, the AU chairman, who expressed fears at the weekend that Sudan
was “sitting on a powder keg”. A senior diplomat said concern was
growing that independence could establish a precedent for a “divorce”
that would resonate in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo,
Ethiopia and elsewhere.
Luka Biong Deng, minister of presidential affairs in south Sudan’s
regional government, did not welcome Mr Ban’s intervention.
“The most important thing is that the UN has the responsibility to
implement the peace agreement,” he told the Financial Times.
“It is not the responsibility of the UN to help the people of the
south to take either decision [in the referendum].
“A unity that is voluntary is sustainable, but a unity that is forced
on people is the unity that has led to continuous civil war.” |
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Ghana's 2010 economic growth seen at 5.7 pct: VP Reuters World Of Finance |
Ghana's economy is expected to grow by at least 5.7 percent this year
compared with about 5 percent in 2009 thanks to the prospect of oil
production and the global economic recovery, its vice president
said.The West African nation, which is the world's number two cocoa
producer and Africa's second biggest gold miner after South Africa,
hopes to start producing oil from its offshore Jubilee field before
the end of this year.
The area is estimated to contain 1.8 billion barrels of crude, and
last week the government said it was considering setting up a
sovereign wealth fund to channel surplus income from revenues that
could reach $2 billion a year. |
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African Development Bank Said to Plan Sale of Bonds in Dollars Bloomberg World Of Finance |
The African Development Bank plans to sell three-year bonds
denominated in U.S. dollars, according to a person familiar with the
matter.The Tunisia-based lender hired Daiwa Capital Markets, Deutsche
Bank AG, Goldman Sachs and UBS AG to manage the sale, said the person,
who declined to be identified before a public announcement. The sale
is expected to be be benchmark in size, which typically means at least
$500 million. |
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Tanzania passes new telecoms law, seeks listings Reuters East Africa |
Tanzania has passed a new telecoms law making it mandatory for mobile
phone companies to list on the country's stock exchange in the next
three years, a senior government official said on Monday.Parliament
approved the Electronic and Postal Communication Bill 2009 late on
Friday, compelling telecommunication firms in the east African country
to offer shares to the public starting from 2013.
"We have given mobile phone companies three years to make the
necessary preparations for listing on the Dar es Salaam Stock
Exchange," Maua Daftari, deputy minister for Communications, Science
and Technology, told Reuters.
"It's a win-win situation for both the government and the telecoms
companies ... The government doesn't want any shares in these
companies, we just want the public to own a stake in the firms," she
said.
"I don't know what the government's intention is -- this law has come
suddenly from nowhere ... why are they only targeting mobile phone
companies?" said Samuel Wangwe, an economic analyst.
Tanzania, a nation of 40 million people, had 13.1 million phone
subscribers at the end of 2008. This had jumped to 14 million by the
first quarter of 2009, with 99 percent of them being mobile
customers.Mobile phone companies operating in Tanzania include market
leader Vodacom Tanzania, a unit of the South African company and Zain
Tanzania, part of Kuwait's Zain.
Zantel, majority-owned by Dubai-based Emirates Telecommunications Corp
(Etisalat), Tigo, owned by Millicom Cellular and Dovetel Limited,
trading as Sasatel, are also present.
Conclusions
Trying to deepen The DSE but why pick on Mobile Companies Per se? |
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Shares-for-debt swap raises State holding in Uchumi Business Daily N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
The government has taken up an 11 per cent stake in Uchumi
Supermarkets as the retail chain re-engineers its shareholding to cut
its obligations to creditors.This came after the government agreed to
convert Sh350 million of a Sh757 million debt into shares, giving the
state direct shareholding and therefore diluting the holding of the
more than 12,000 shareholders. Based on a recent valuation by audit
firm KPMG that placed a share of the firm at Sh12, the entire loan
could earn the government about 63 million shares or 24 per cent of
Uchumi’s 262 million issued shares, which was an increase from 180
million shares after the shares for debt swap.
Though the retail chain has been on the recovery path since the entry
of receiver managers in mid 2006, it had been unable to clear a debt
of Sh757 million owed to the Government, Sh266 million to suppliers,
Sh207 million to shareholders and Sh130 million to the bankers—KCB
Bank and PTA Bank.
The firm posted a pre- tax profit of Sh170 million in the year to June
2009 on revenues of Sh8.2 billion compared to a loss of 1.2 billion in
2005, a signal that its turnaround strategy is bearing fruit albeit at
a slower pace.
Conclusions
Headed back to the NSE which will be a moment of Great Relief for a
great Number of Shareholders. |
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KPLC and Mumias agree on energy deal The Nation N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
“KPLC has not only agreed to take the whole 26MW but has also agreed
to increase the price it will pay us from six US cents (Sh4.50) per
kilowatt/hour to eight US cents (Sh6) per kilowatt/hour,” Dr Kidero
told an investors briefing at Laico Regency Hotel, Nairobi.The
company’s cogeneration plant produces 38MW but sells 26MW KPLC. It
makes electricity by burning bagasse, the fibrous residue of crushed
sugarcane.
Conclusions
That should be material going forward. |
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Kenya Power to Lease Fiber-Optic Cable to Safaricom Bloomberg Information & Communication Technology |
Kenya Power & Lighting Ltd., the country’s monopoly power distributor,
said it will sign an agreement tomorrow to lease fiber-optic cable
capacity to three telecommunications companies in the
country.Safaricom Ltd., Kenya’s biggest mobile-network operator, Jamii
Telecommunications Ltd. and Wananchi Group Ltd. made the winning bids
to buy capacity from the network, Kenya Power said in an e-mailed
statement today.The 1,500-kilometer (932-mile) fiber-optic cable
connects the port city of Mombasa to Nakuru, Eldoret, Kisumu, Kiganjo
and Nanyuki, the company said in a statement on April 15.
For the 20-year lease, rent of the fiber on the Nairobi-Mombasa
route is $32 for each pair per kilometer every month, Njoroge said,
while for the five-year lease, the rent per pair per kilometer per
month is $60. |
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N.S.E Today |
| The Bourse saw light trading. The NSE20 was down 2.12 points at 3577.15.
The NASI fell 0.63 points to close at 77.31.
Market Cap was 900.303b versus 907.65b.
Equity Turnover was 114.862m versus 351.516m. |
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N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
| Rea Vipingo was unchanged at 12.50 and traded 10,700 shares.
Sasini Tea traded a 144,000 shares and closed lower at 8.00. |
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
| SAFARICOM
shares volume 2,873,900
total turnover 14,479,070
avg price 5.04 closing PRICE 5.00 -3.85%
high price 5.10
low price 5.00
last price 5.00
Conclusions
The Pull Back continued today but note the low Volumes. Looks
attractive once again from the Long side. Safaricom traded 3rd at the
Bourse.
SAFARICOM share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/4cdZRM
Access Kenya firmed 1.14% to close at 22.25 and was trading 22.50
+2.27% session highs into the close. Access Kenya traded 70,200 shares
and targets 24.00 resistance.
Kenya Airways traded unchanged at 50.00 and a tight 49.50-50.50 range
and 142,000 shares. Buyers are comfortable defending the 50.00 level
and I expect a move off these levels and higher in due course.
CARGEN traded 500 shares at 34.00 -2.86%.
CMC holdings fell 2.175% to close at 11.25 and traded an 11.10-11.50
range and 41,100 shares.
Marshalls which is very rarely traded appeared on the Ticker moving
3.57% higher to close at 21.75 on 100 shares.
Nation was unchanged at 120.00 and traded a 122.00 high and 12,700 shares.
Standard traded 600 shares at 38.25.
ScanGroup traded 7,300 shares at an unchanged 26.00.
TPSerena was unchanged at 47,75 with 13,900 shares traded. |
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
| Kenya Re traded 2nd at the Bourse. Kenya Re eased 1.89% to close at
13.00 and traded a 12.95-13.25 range. Kenya Re traded 1.21m shares
[0.21% of its issued share capital] worth 15.732m. It trades on a
Trailing PE of 6.726 which is inexpensive by most measures.
Kenya Re share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/as8dhu
Par Value: 2.50
Closing Price: 13.25
Total Shares Issued: 600,000,000
Market Capitalization: 7,950M
EPS: 1.97
PE: 6.726
Jubilee traded 1,200 shares all at 138.00 -4.17%.
PanAfric dipped 5.21% to close at 45.50 and traded 2,300 shares.
KCB traded 5th overall and closed unchanged at 22.00 trading a tight
range of 22.00-22.25 and 410,200 shares.
Barclays Bank closed 1.02% lower at 48.50 and traded just 38,300 shares.
Equity Bank rose 0.32% to close at 15.75 and traded a 15.00-15.95
range and 354,500 shares. Sellers are determined to tip their hands
even when their Sell orders are some way above the market and hence
guaranteeing the price will trade below their levels.
COOP Bank was unchanged at 9.50 and traded a 9.50-9.60 range and
348,700 shares. There was over 1.8m shares being shown for sale.
Standard Chartered traded 13,900 shares and closed at 169.00 -0.59%.
CFC Stanbic shaved 25 cents to close at 44.75 with 4,800 shares traded.
DTB shaved a shilling to close at 70.50 and traded 5,000 shares.
HFCK rose 1.12% to close at 17.75 and traded a 17.50-18.00 range and
was at 18.00 into the close with 36,500 shares traded. Extrapolating
3rd Quarter 2009 results they will show the highest EPS Growth Run
Rate in the Mid Caps admittedly off a low Base.
NBK shaved 25 cents to close at 38.25 and traded 4,000 shares.
NIC rose 0.72% to close at 35.00 and traded 29,900 shares.
Centum shaved 5 cents to close at 13.25 and traded 44,300 shares.
Olympia Capital traded 11,000 shares at an unchanged 7.40. |
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
| BAT was the biggest gainer on the day leaping 9.035% to close at
193.00 and trading 10,600 shares with Demand 12x that Figure. BAT
running Yield is above 9.00% and with Inflation at 4.7%, it is very
attractive for Dividend Players.
BAT share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/aJsT6n
KENOLKOBIL was the 2nd biggest gainer on the day closing at 65.00
+8.33% and trading session highs of 66.00 +10.00% into the close.
KENOLKOBIL released a Bullish trading Update not so long ago and this
has ignited the price. 18,600 shares were traded with Supply seemingly
scarce.
KENOLKOBIL share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/2DMFVE
Total imprroved 1.65% to close at 30.25 and traded 8,100 shares at that level.
Mumias Sugar was the most active Counter. Mumias traded a 10.50-11.00
range and closed unchanged at 10.80 with 2.307m shares worth 24.919m
changing hands. Renaissance maintained a Buy with a 13.10 objective
which was pretty close to my Objective issued yesterday of 13.60. The
2nd half earnings typically are more muscular then the 1st and hence
my Bias is for Mumias to target levels higher than 13.60. FAO Licht
the Soft Commodities Operation is talking of a Big Brazilian Sugar
Crop dampening the Sugar price which is at highs not seen since 1981.
I will believe that when I see it. India remains with a 7m Tonne
shortage.
Mumias Sugar share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/4WJWWK
EABL was the 4th most active Counter. EABL traded a 150.00-152.00
range and was unchanged at 150.00 with 75,100 shares worth 11.265m
changing hands.
KPLC which announced a Fiber Optic Deal with Safaricom Wananchi and
Jamii Telecom today dipped 0.67% to close at 148.00 and traded 4,000
shares only.
KENGEN shave a further 5 cents and closed at 13.95 and traded a
13.50-14.10 range and 302,500 shares which was a goodly piece of the
Supply overhang.
Cables edged 25 cents better to close at 23.25 and traded 5,900 shares.
Bamburi traded 1,600 shares at an unchanged 160.00.
ARM closed at 109.00 and traded 5,800 shares.
Portland did not trade.
BOC Gases traded 500 shares and was unchanged at 149.00.
Carbacid traded 3,400 shares and was unchanged at 100.00.
Crown Berger dipped 1.92% to close at 25.50.
Eveready shaved 3.95% to close at 3.65.
Sameer bounced 4.39% to close at 5.95.
Unga closed at 9.10. |
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