10th September 2010
Authorised N.S.E Data Vendor
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 22nd of February 2010
 
Morning
Africa

www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

I thank Mike Lin for an excellent Presentation at MindSpeak. Thanks Mike.

My Latest Piece for The Star Market Swoon
http://bit.ly/b4NJeL

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

I do thank Alishia for the Interview carried on CNBC Today.

Macro Thoughts

Gold remains on target for 1400 This Year.

Cable [Sterling] looks worthy of Selling but on Bounces.

Home Thoughts

I was reading Anthills of the Savannah Achebe
http://bit.ly/b8ohHY

The novel takes place in the imaginary West African country of Kangan,
where a Sandhurst-trained officer, identified only as Sam and known as
His Excellency, has taken power following a military coup. Achebe
describes the political situation through the experiences of three
friends: Chris Oriko, the government's Commissioner for Information;
Beatrice Okoh, an official in the Ministry of Finance and girlfriend
of Chris; and Ikem Osodi, a newspaper editor critical of the regime.
Other characters include Elewa, Ikem's girlfriend and Major
"Samsonite" Ossai, a military official known for stapling hands with a
Samsonite stapler. Tensions escalate through the novel, culminating in
the assassination of Ikem by the regime, the toppling and death of Sam
and finally the murder of Chris. The novel ends with a non-traditional
naming ceremony for Elewa and Ikem's month old daughter, organized by
Beatrice.

I remember reading somewhere that we are just 6 Degrees of Separation
from Anyone in the World. And what I have now learnt is that it is
less but I will revert on that this week.

read more


Pyongyang Reports an Aging, Less Healthy Population WSJ
Asia

The authoritarian government in December released results of the
census conducted in 2008, saying its population had climbed to 24
million people from 21.2 million in the previous census in 1993.More
details have been published by the United Nations Population Fund,
which helped North Korea conduct the census and sent five teams of
observers to monitor it. The census reported that North Korea's
population grew at an annual average rate of 0.85% for the 15-year
period, a time that included a devastating multiyear famine that
analysts and foreign aid agencies estimate killed between one million
and two million people.A separate U.N. report published last year
found that North Korea's population has grown more slowly since 2005,
at an annual rate of 0.4%. The global population has grown 1.2%
annually since 2005, the U.N. report said.

Babies are more likely to die: The infant mortality rate climbed to
19.3 per 1,000 children in 2008 from 14.1 in 1993, though North
Korea's rate is still well below the world average, which a 2009
report by the U.N. agency put at 46 per 1,000 children.

North Koreans are living shorter lives—average life expectancy has
fallen to 69.3 years from 72.7 in 1993.

Conclusions

The Political Dispensation [especially after the Currency Wipeout]
looks a whole lot more fragile.

Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3640
Dollar Index 80.55
Sterling 1.5481 Target 1.4980
Yen 91.63
Higher Beta Currencies Stronger
Aussie 0.9014
Rand 7.6250
Real 1.8105

Conclusions

Dollar is at an 8 month High Fed Discount Rate refers.

Net speculative bets--called shorts--against the euro increased to
approximately 59,000 contracts in the week ended Tuesday, according to
an analysis by Scotia Bank of the weekly Commitments of Traders Report
= Not the Time to be Limit Short Euro.

read more



The Nikkei 225 Yahoo Finance
World Of Finance

Index Value:    10,378.33
Trade Time:    11:30PM ET
Change:    Up 254.75 (2.52%)

Conclusions

I think this is the best Value of all the Big Cap Stock Markets. I
believe the Japan China correlation is very high and Market
Participants underestimate that Correlation.

read more


Bond Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Of Finance
1-Month Bill* -0/32 0.063
3-Month Bill* 0/32 0.107
6-Month Bill* 0/32 0.193
1-Year Note* -0/32 0.362
2-Year Note* 1/32 0.920
3-Year Note* 1/32 1.501
5-Year Note* 4/32 2.453
7-Year Note* 3/32 3.225
10-Year Note* 8/32 3.776
read more


Japan Hoarding Treasuries Counters Retreat by China Bloomberg
World Of Finance
Lost amid government reports showing that China reduced its holdings
of Treasuries by a record amount in December were data showing Japan
increased its stake, a move that may signal U.S. yields are
peaking.Purchases by Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co., Mizuho Asset
Management Co. and Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. helped push Japan’s
holdings to $768.8 billion, an increase of $11.5 billion. U.S.
government debt held by China fell $34.2 billion to $755.4 billion,
Treasury Department figures showed Feb. 16.Increased buying from a
country that has lived through a decade of recessions and deflation
indicates Treasuries are a relative bargain, with consumer prices in
check and savings rates rising. Investors in Japan, where households
have built up 1,400 trillion yen ($15 trillion) of financial assets,
are attracted by U.S. yields that reached the highest since 2007
compared with Japanese government bonds.

“When the yield is high, people buy,” said Satoshi Okumoto, an
investment manager in Tokyo for Fukoku, which oversees the equivalent
of more than $60 billion. “The prospect for inflation is quite
limited. Consumer demand is limited” in the U.S., he said.

The insurer bought as yields on 10-year Treasuries rose to 2.55
percentage points above those on similar-maturity Japanese bonds in
December, the most in two years, he said. While the spread shrank to
2.46 percentage points today, it’s still about 40 basis points above
the average in that period.

Obama increased the amount of U.S. marketable debt to $7.23 trillion
last month from $5.75 trillion a year earlier. The budget deficit will
swell to an unprecedented $1.6 trillion in the fiscal year ending
Sept. 30, the Obama administration predicted Feb. 1.

Conclusions

Loyal Friends the Japanese.
read more



Alaskan Road Trip, 500 Feet Up NYT
Tourism, Travel & Transport
But in Alaska, a vast state covering 663,267 square miles, much of the
terrain is completely cut off from roads. By conventional means, a
tourist can get only so far — or rather, so near. Standing at the end
of the Homer Spit, I’d reached the end of the road: a few feet in
front of me, the pavement dropped off into the sea.

Fortunately, there’s another option: take to the air.
read more


Establish Brand Image in Online Media WSJ
Information & Communication Technology
One thing I learned from my days in traditional advertising is that a
brand doesn't exist on shelves—it exists in the hearts and minds of
people. Your brand is the sum total of perceptions about your product
in the heads of your relevant audience.

If that's true, then online media are the most important place for
your brand image to be established, defended and grown. This is where
your offering comes face-to-face with your audience and where its
responses can be measured, shaped and—if need be—countered in real
time. This is where perceptions can be built, person by person.

Today, the best way to establish your brand among big-hitter rivals is
to make it remark-worthy and generate conversations free of charge.
See how Red Bull took on big-ad-buying Coke and Pepsi with a product
that sold at a higher price for a smaller pack size and built it to a
billion-dollar brand with little advertising? The new axiom, call it
Mahesh's Law, is this: your marketing IQ is inversely proportional to
your marketing budget.

Start on your brand by answering a simple question: Are you
remark-worthy? When someone talks about your offering, is there a
10-second sound bite that is "re-tweetable" on Twitter? If not, go
back to basics and craft a simple, clear hook that that sets you
apart. Like: Google helps you find stuff better, Harley owners are a
cult, Starbucks is a great place to be, Red Bull lets you party
harder.

Conclusions

A very interesting Piece. I tend to the View that the World is as Flat
as a Pancake and as flat as it has ever been. That the Key and
Defining Capital that will define this Century is Intellectual Capital
and hence the Opportunity for a Brand to Scale never been so
promising.

Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke
read more




Live Crude Oil chart 80.39 Last
Minerals, Oil & Energy
Crude for March delivery climbed to a high of $80.51 a barrel in
electronic trading on Globex, its strongest intraday level since
mid-January, according to data from FactSet Research. The contract was
up 69 cents at $80.50 by the late morning in Tokyo. "Seasonally, the
market tends to rally 34% from mid-February through mid-July, so [the
early rally Monday in Asia] could be tied to commercial buying in
front of expected seasonal increase in demand," he said.

"However, until the spot-month futures contract moves above previous
high of $83.95, it remains vulnerable to longer-term pressure," he
said.
read more


Crude June 2010 INO
Minerals, Oil & Energy
Last trade 80.85 Change +0.58 (+0.72%)

Conclusions

Look at this again at $85.00.
read more



Gold 24 Hour Continuous Spot Price KITCO 1125.20
Commodities
Conclusions

I remain of the View that we will see 1400+ This Year.
read more



Moody’s May Raise India Rating on Deficit-Cut Steps Bloomberg
World Of Finance
India’s credit rating may be raised from junk if Finance Minister
Pranab Mukherjee provides a comprehensive plan to roll back fiscal
stimulus and cut the budget deficit this week, Moody’s Investors
Service said.

“If we think the exit path is well articulated and well executed, the
local currency rating could be upgraded,” Aninda Mitra, a
Singapore-based sovereign analyst at Moody’s, said in a telephone
interview on Feb. 19. India’s long-term local currency debt is placed
at Ba2 by Moody’s, two levels below the investment grade and at par
with Armenia and Turkey.

Mukherjee has an opportunity to narrow the budget shortfall as
accelerating economic growth boosts tax revenue and a stronger
political mandate after last year’s elections paves the way to resume
asset sales. Rating changes have less impact on India than other
countries like Greece, which borrow more from abroad. India’s foreign
borrowings make up only about 4 percent of government debt compared
with 83 percent for Greece, according to Citigroup Inc.

Indian government debt accounts for about 80 percent of the gross
domestic product. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings have a BBB-, the
lowest investment grade rating, on Indian local currency debt.

“Although, the debt level is high relative to other emerging markets,
the fact remains that it’s not increasing sharply,” Mitra said. “It’s
hovering around 80 percent of the GDP. So, that’s a reasonably good
outcome and which is why we shifted towards the positive outlook,” in
December 2009.
read more



Jewels That Inspired Cartier Show Mughal Empire Wealth: Review Bloomberg
Minerals, Oil & Energy
In 1975, Sheikh Nasser al-Ahmad al- Sabah, eldest son of the Amir of
Kuwait, brought home a 14th- century decorated glass bottle and showed
it to his wife, a committed lover of modern abstract art.The beauty of
the artifact and its design changed her mind and became the first of
more than 30,000 items that now make up one of the world’s largest and
most valuable collections of Islamic art.

“I realized that everything I loved about modern and contemporary art
was in that piece of glass,” said Sheika Hussah Sabah al-Salem
al-Sabah in Singapore, at the opening of an exhibition of 402 stunning
items from the collection illustrating the wealth of India’s Mughal
empire.

The exhibition, “Treasury of the World: Jewelled Arts of India in the
Age of the Mughals,” at the Asian Civilisations Museum, shows the
wealth of the Islamic dynasty during its three centuries of rule in
India.One dagger and scabbard is set with almost 2,400 rubies,
diamonds, emeralds, ivory and agate. A 430-carat emerald carved with
an inscription is the size of a tangerine. Another emerald was so big
that the Mughal craftsman hollowed it out and made it into a wine cup.

A 17th century gold finger ring with a rotating and bobbing bird is on
display until June 27 at the Asian Civilisations Museum in Singapore.
Source: The al-Sabah Collection via Bloomberg
read more


Bharti lines up $9 billion from banks for Zain deal Economic Times
Information & Communication Technology
According to three people familiar with the matter, close to a dozen
banks — mostly foreign — have come forward to commit at least $9
billion to fund the buyout in the form of long-term loans, a departure
from earlier plans to bankroll the deal through short-term or bridge
loans.The use of bank loans to fund the transaction would imply that
Bharti may not have to look at any equity issuance in the near term.
Bankers attribute this to the fact that Bharti has low levels of debt
and, therefore, do not see a compelling case for the company to raise
fresh equity.

Leading the consortium of banks is Standard Chartered, which alone has
committed $5.5 billion. The pricing for the 7-year loan could be close
to $300 basis points or 3% over the London inter-bank offered rate or
Libor, which is reckoned to be quite competitive. UK-based Barclays
has also committed close to $5 billion to the company, said people
familiar with the transaction who declined to be quoted owing to the
sensitive nature of the deal. StanChart and Barclays are the financial
advisors for the deal.
read more


An Accidental Leader Stirs Hopes in Nigeria NYT
Law & Politics
ABUJA, Nigeria — The circumstances of Acting President Goodluck
Jonathan’s accession to power are so odd that even he looks bewildered
as he takes a self-effacing bow in this boiling, fractious nation.He
has not been elected. He has not exactly been appointed. He did not
seize power in a coup, unlike many of his predecessors. And as a
mild-mannered academic in a black fedora, he seems an unlikely fit in
Nigeria’s tough-guy environment.But his boss, President Umaru
Yar’Adua, is very sick, incommunicado for nearly three months in a
Saudi Arabian hospital. With no word on his return, the National
Assembly last week promoted Mr. Jonathan from vice president to acting
president, calling the move essential to “peace, order and good
government.”

So it was that Mr. Jonathan, appearing before fellow West African
leaders at a summit meeting here this week, bent his head, mumbled
greetings and apologetically called himself a mere “stand-in for
President Yar’Adua, who is unavailable.” So unavailable, in fact, that
a National Assembly delegation inquiring about the president’s health
last week in Saudi Arabia was unceremoniously turned away.

That Mr. Jonathan, 52, a biologist with a doctorate in zoology and a
former environmental official, is eliciting unusual hopes in Nigeria
only a week into his tenure is testimony as much to the scale of the
country’s neglected needs as to his relatively untainted biography.
There have already been calls to install him as full-fledged president
from a leading citizens’ group.

“He’s not obsessed with power,” said Samuel Amadi, director of policy
at the Good Governance Group, an activist lobby here. “He doesn’t have
the usual swagger of Nigerian politicians.”

Still, in a country where frequent authoritarian diktats, reinforced
by guns, have never led to peace, Mr. Jonathan’s inclination toward
conciliation could bring benefits.

“In politics, he’s been more of a listener; he consults a lot,” said
Mr. Douglas, the aide. “He calls all these people ‘sir,’ anybody who
is older than him by one day.”
read more


Nigeria All share Index Bloomberg Visual
Africa
Value23,168.64
Change2.700
% Change0.012

Conclusions

I believe we are headed to 25,000.00.
read more




JSE Plans Rules to Compel On-Screen Trading in Government Bonds Bloomberg
World Of Finance
JSE Ltd., operator of South Africa’s stock and bond exchanges, plans
new rules that will compel traders to use a screen-based trading
system for three government bonds rather than setting prices among
themselves.The exchange is in talks with regulators and the industry
on the proposals, Graham Smale, the director of interest rate products
at the Johannesburg-based bourse, said in an interview today. The
rules are aimed at boosting transparency of how securities are priced.

“Orders for government bonds are currently executed in a totally
dispersed, over-the counter style environment and then reported to the
exchange afterwards,” he said. “That’s created an element of distrust
in the marketplace, which is unhealthy.”

The exchange plans to impose the rules on executed sales of 10 million
rand ($1.3 million) or less for South Africa’s benchmark 13.5 percent
security due September 2015, the 7.25 percent bond due 2020 and the
10.5 percent bond due 2026. It is negotiating the regulations with
South Africa’s Financial Services Board, National Treasury, the
Association for Savings & Investment, and the Primary Dealers Forum,
said Smale.
read more


Robert Mugabe, the world’s oldest head of state, shows his age at 86 The Times
Law & Politics
Robert Mugabe turned 86 yesterday — and after 30 years of his clinging
to power, doubts are being expressed about his ability to continue as
President of Zimbabwe.Visitors who spoke to the world’s oldest head of
state this month say that he can no longer carry on a conversation
without nodding off after a few minutes, and has to be woken
repeatedly.
read more


African Development Bank Sees Africa Growing at 6.5% in 2011 Bloomberg
Africa
Economic growth in Africa, the world’s poorest continent, may reach
6.5 percent next year, as the global financial crisis abates and
demand for commodities grows, African Development Bank President
Donald Kaberuka said.

Kaberuka told the panel Africa’s economy was expected to grow between
4.5 percent and 5 percent this year, with the expansion likely to
accelerate by an additional 1.5 percentage points in 2011. He later
told reporters he anticipated growth of about 5.5 percent in 2010 and
6.5 percent in 2012.

The forecasts are more optimistic than the International Monetary
Fund’s predictions, issued Jan. 26, for Africa’s economy to grow 4.3
percent this year and 5.3 percent in 2011.

Conclusions

Kaberuka tends to be the Outlier.
read more


Political Standoff Puts Kenyans’ Pent-Up Rage in Focus NYT
Law & Politics
In the past week, a poisonous, seemingly ego-driven standoff between
the two has had protesters hitting the streets, ethnic tensions
rising, the nation’s currency taking a dive and diplomats hustling
about town, begging the adversaries to stop playing politics and come
to their senses before things get ugly — again.

“It’s pathetic,” said John Githongo, Kenya’s former anticorruption
chief who now runs a grass-roots political organization. “It takes a
letter from Obama to get the president and prime minister finally to
meet.”

But last Sunday there was a chilling reminder. Moments after Mr.
Odinga announced that he was suspending Mr. Ruto (with whom he has
recently had a falling-out), protesters set up roadblocks in Eldoret,
Mr. Ruto’s ethnic stronghold, shutting down the main east-west highway
in Kenya, just as they had in 2008. And this was not simply rowdy
youth. The roadblocks were led by none other than Eldoret’s mayor.

“The protests that erupted in Eldoret town,” said an editorial in The
Daily Nation, Kenya’s biggest newspaper, “should have set alarm bells
ringing.”

“It is one thing to suspend civil servants and personal aides, but
completely another to do the same to ministers who are often regarded
as tribal chieftains,” the editorial went on. Such a move could be
interpreted as “an attack on whole communities.”

“Our leaders don’t listen to us, they listen to you all,” said Maina
Kiai, a human rights activist. “That’s what makes them bend.”

Mr. Githongo, who eventually abandoned his battle against corruption
because of death threats, described the political situation as
“comical” and “dangerous.”

“Our lives are in the hands of these two guys who are acting like
children, children playing with a pistol,” he said.

Conclusions

“It takes a letter from Obama to get the president and prime minister
finally to meet.”
read more



NSE20 Bloomberg Visual
N.S.E General
3,553.99

Conclusions

Recovering after the 100 Point Peak to Trough Political Swoon.
read more


KCB alleges fraud in sale of Triton asset The Nation
Kenyan Economy
In a suit filed in court last week, the bank wants the transfer of the
property - known as Camelot Estates Ltd - stopped until the case has
been heard and determined. The property, situated along Waiyaki Way in
Nairobi, was sold at Sh800 million although KCB says it would have
attracted more than Sh1.2 billion.Other orders the bank will be
seeking from the court are an inquiry on the sale which was conducted
on February 8, and the freezing of Camelot’s interests in its account
held at East Africa Development Bank (EADB).EADB, KCB and PTA Bank,
Camelot and a contractor on the site - Laxmanbhai -, had been locked
in the tussle over the sale of the property for some time. According
to KCB, the process leading to the agreement of the sale was tainted
with fraud and irregularity. It is also alleged that the sale of
Camelot estates to Laxmanbhai, was conducted in bad faith and in a
reckless manner.KCB further says that EADB deliberately ignored its
interests and was only seeking a quick sale of the property leaving
little or no surplus. Triton’s main creditors include EADB, KCB,
Fortis Bank Nederland, NV PTA Bank and a host of other unsecured
creditors including some oil marketing companies.

The property in contention has a nine-storey office block, 174 parking
bays and was almost complete at the time of sale. In the suit, KCB
alleges that EADB never sought its consent and its request to redeem
the mortgaged property was also ignored.

At one time, KCB alleges that Laxmanbhai had offered to buy the
property at Sh1,015,796,834 which would have been used to settle the
debts of all banks. And from the sale, KCB says it has resulted into
an anticipated loss of Sh470 million.
read more


KCB share price data and Graphs from www.rich.co.ke
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
Par Value: 1/-
Closing Price: 21.00
Total Shares Issued: 2,217,777,664
Market Capitalization: 46,573M
EPS: 1.80
PE: 11.667

Conclusions

Full Year Results are imminent.
read more


RenCap to focus on Africa FT
World Of Finance

Stephen Jennings, known in Russia as the ‘Kiwi oligarch’.

Stephen Jennings, the former Credit Suisse banker who set up RenCap in
1995 and who is known in Russia as the “Kiwi oligarch”, has recently
returned as chief executive to spearhead the group’s expansion.

RenCap intends to hire more than 200 people this year, taking its
headcount closer to pre-crisis levels.

In South Africa, the bank expects to build a team of about 25 under Mr Sacks.

Following the $2.2bn float by UC Rusal, the Russian aluminium group,
in Hong Kong last month, RenCap – a joint bookrunner on the Rusal deal
– is expected to do well should other Russian companies look to Asia
to list.

The bank is more keen, however, to emphasise its business in places
such as Nigeria, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Ghana and Zambia, where it expects
to eventually have as many as 600 bankers.

Andrew Cornthwaite, deputy chief executive and head of investment
banking, told the Financial Times that the bank’s 2010 deal pipeline
includes 17 initial public offerings in nine different countries.

read more


Uganda: Exchange Unveils Electronic System
East Africa

Uganda Securities Exchange last week unveiled the Securities Central
Depositary (SCD), an electronic store for company shares traded at the
stock market as it looks at improving efficiency at the stock market.

The SCD was unveiled to investors, as the first step towards
computerizing the trading of securities.

read more


Egypt's Citadel food unit eyes Ethiopian firm Reuters
World Of Finance

Egyptian private equity firm Citadel Capital's food unit is in
advanced talks to buy an Ethiopian food firm in its bid to boost
self-sufficiency in raw materials, the unit's chief executive told
Reuters.
Gozour's Mohamed El Rashidi did not name the Ethiopian company, but
said talks could be concluded in four months.

"It is a perfect fit for us," he said late on Sunday, referring to the
Ethiopan market. "There are 80.7 million people in Ethiopia, with a
heavy consuming base and 60 percent of the country's GDP (gross
domestic product) is from food."

The move would follow the acquisition in November of a majority stake
in a Sudanese biscuit and sweet maker by Gozour, the consumer foods
business of Citadel, which manages $8.3 billion in investments.

"This company (in Ethiopia) operates in a market that hosts one of our
main raw materials," Rashidi said.

The purchase would mean Gozour could start "contract farming" in
Ethiopia, which Rashidi said involved financing farmers and in return
reaching agreement to use the produce in factories in Egypt and
eventually plants in Ethiopia.

Gozour has three primary lines of business: agri-foods and dairy,
fast-moving consumer goods and intermediate industries such as flour
milling and production of skimmed milk powder.

In addition to Sudan and Ethiopia, Rashidi said the firm's other areas
of interest were Uganda and Kenya. "In these countries we take a
platform because they're strategic for us in terms of raw materials,"
he said.

He said the firm would have to continue relying on some imports to
supply its Egyptian plants but said it aimed to raise the number of
its food lines integrated from farmer to shop shelf to protect it from
global commodity price fluctuations.

"We will have a level of 50-60 percent self-sufficiency at the end of
2012 that eliminates a large part of the volatility of raw material
prices," he said, adding Gozour now sourced about 28-30 percent of raw
materials from its own production.

The global downturn has driven food prices off all-time highs hit in
2008 but they are still close to the peaks.

read more



Thorn of Africa Mogadishu is a shattered city, but fragments of its old beauty remain New Statesman
Africa


After dark, the dull thud of mortars and the staccato popping of
machine guns come more frequently. Sometimes the explosions make it
hard to sleep, so I lie awake counting, learning to read the Mogadishu
soundscape: one . . . two-three . . . four. Pauses follow sequences of
explosions like Morse code, each bullet and mortar landing somewhere,
ending or ruining a life.

Mogadishu is a city of ruins, bearing testimony to the years of
destruction. Roads are broken; buildings are shattered, concertinaed
to the ground or lacking outer walls, like giant honeycombs. Battered
minibus taxis move aside for armoured personnel carriers and
"technicals": home-made Somali battle wagons constructed by welding
machine guns on to pickup trucks. In street battles, gunmen use these
to blast the hell out of each other and anyone in between.

But here and there are echoes of a lost grandeur. Down by the sea,
there is an old city quarter of once-paved piazzas lined with roofless
porticos, crumbling façades and ornate cracked archways. Dust devils
twist down sun-bleached streets past groups of men drinking sweet tea.
They wear loose short-sleeved shirts and macawis - printed cotton
sarongs. Some cradle AK-47s in their laps. Women in niqabs hurry by,
robes flapping in the wind.

By late morning gunshots are still ringing out; but at Villa Somalia,
the president's hilltop palace, government supporters are determined
to have their anniversary party. Ahmed, a diminutive figure at the
best of times, sits lost in the puffy folds of an outsized leather
armchair, watching a wobbly documentary of his achievements projected
on to a white wall.

He barely blinks when the first mortar hits a checkpoint on the edge
of the sprawling palace grounds, killing one and wounding at least
three. The second mortar is closer, landing just metres from the hall
where hundreds are gathered to hear poets and choirs sing the
president's praises. Panic starts to spread as dust and smoke leak
through the latticework walls of the building. Then tanks fire back in
the direction of the attack and there are no more mortars. The crowd
resettles and the performers continue.

read more


Citadel of Egypt Buys 49% of Sheltam Railways of South Africa Bloomberg
World Of Finance

Citadel Capital of Egypt said it bought a 49 percent stake in South
Africa’s Sheltam Railways.The Cairo-based private equity firm made the
announcement in a statement to the Egyptian Exchange today.

read more


Kenya fiscal deficit widened to 1.8 pct by Dec '09 Reuters
Kenyan Economy


Kenya's overall fiscal deficit tripled to 1.8 percent of gross
domestic product in the first half of the 2009/10 year, compared with
0.6 percent of GDP in the same period of the previous year, an
economic review said.The government is targeting a deficit of 101.9
billion shillings, or 4.0 percent of GDP, on a commitment basis and
excluding grants, the finance ministry review said.

"The Cumulative overall fiscal balance, on a commitment basis
(excluding grants) registered a deficit of 45.3 billion shillings
(equivalent to 1.8 percent of GDP) through end December 2009," the
review said.

The government's expenditure and net lending, however, was 302.6
billion shillings, against a 376 billion target, because of lower
absorption especially in developmental expenditure.

Gross public debt rose to 1,115 billion shillings, or 43.8 percent of
GDP, by the end of December 2009, from 1,038 billion at the end of
June 2009. External debt comprises 47.2 percent of that and the
remainder is domestic debt.

Domestic debt stood at 588.97 billion shillings by end of December
while external was 525.50 billion.

Balance of payments improved to a surplus of $552 million in November
2009 from a deficit of $98 million in November 2008.

Forex reserves held by central bank grew to $3.934 billion, equivalent
of 4.2 months of import cover, in November 2009 from $2.869 billion,
or 3.4 months of import cover, in November 2008.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

The Bourse was thinly traded again with some serious Demand versus
Supply imbalances in Safaricom, Kenya Airways and KCB in particular.
The NSE20 is seeking to recover 3620+ levels, a break of which should
trigger a push to 4,000.00

The NSE20 closed 8.48 points firmer at 3562.47.
The NASI rose 0.13 points to close at 78.62.
Market Cap was 915.479b versus 914.04b.
Equity Turnover was 121.48m versus 303.331m



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Rea Vipingo rose 1.58% to close at 12.80 and traded 26,400 shares.
Sasini Tea traded 39,300 shares and closed at 7.65.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume     4,669,700
avg price     5.36 CLOSING PRICE 5.35 Unchanged.
high price     5.45
low price     5.35
last price     5.35

Conclusions

Was the most active Share in what was a quiet overall Session. What is
noteworthy is the Build Up in Demand. There were Buyers for 18.344m at
the Close, nearly 400% more than was traded all session.

Kenya Airways was the 4th most Active. Kenya Airways improved 2.135%
to close at 49.00 and was trading at 50.00 +4.17% into the Finale.
Kenya Airways traded a 48.25-50.00 range and 253,700 shares worth
12.459m. There are a Lot of Folk trying to snaffle shares at 48.00.
55.00 is a near term objective.

Access Kenya bounced 1.23% to close at 20.50 and traded a 20.00-21.00
range and 288,700 shares worth 5.941m.

CMC Holdings rose 0.89% to close at 11.30 and traded 46,700 shares.
CARGEN firmed 1.49% to close at 34.00 and traded 600 shares.

Nation was unchanged at 121.00 with 3,600 shares traded.
Standard traded 2,500 shares and closed 50 cents higher at 36.00.

ScanGroup firmed 0.94% to close at 26.75 and 41,900 shares were traded.

TPSerena was marked 3.76% to close at 44.75 with 3,000 shares traded.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

KCB was the 2nd most active Counter. KCB firmed 1.19% to close at
21.25 and traded a 20.75-21.75 range and 1.046m shares worth 22.322m.
Full Year Results are imminent and the Upside remains 24.00, which
capped the share all through 2009.

Housing Finance improved 2.0475% to close at 17.45 and traded a
17.00-17.50 range. HCFK traded 308,300 shares worth 5.387m. HFCK has
an attractive Low Base Effect and was scoring at the Highest Run Rate
of the Mid Caps at the 3rd Quarter Mark of 2009.

Barclays Bank was unchanged at 50.00 and traded a 50.00-51.00 range
32,800 shares. I expect a move to 55.00 and 50.00 to provide strong
Support. The Results were Good Value, I thought.
COOP Bank [which announced its Foray into Southern Sudan] shaved off
0.51% to close at 9.80 and traded a 9.70-10.00 range and 222,200
shares.
Equity Bank closed lower at 15.35 and traded a 15.25-15.70 range and
161,900 shares. Equity Bank [as per the Balance Sheet] has positioned
itself for Growth.
StanChart traded 1,700 shares and closed 0.58% better at 174.00.

CFC StanBic was unchanged at 44.00 [1,300 shares].
DTB traded 1,100 shares at 72.00 +2.86%.
NBK was unchanged at 39.25 and traded 29,100 shares.
NIC was unchanged at 35.25 but trading 36.00 +2.13% into the Close.
NIC traded 26,600 shares.

Kenya Re improved 1.17% to close at 13.00 and traded 96,500 shares.
PanAfric traded at 45.00.
Jubilee did not trade.

Centum dipped 1.2% to close at 12.45 and traded a 12.20-12.70 range
and 96,500 shares.

Olympia Capital was at 7.20.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Mumias Sugar was the 3rd Most active Counter. Mumias Sugar shares were
better supplied by a Factor 0f 2-1. 75% of that was cleared today.
Mumias Sugar dipped 0.9768% to close at 10.05 and traded a 9.95-10.35
range and 1.485m shares worth 14.963m.

BAT traded 5th at the Bourse and shaved off a shilling to close at
189.00. BAT traded 54,300 shares worth 10.278m. The Dividend and its
Pay Out Ratio are near 9% which is a Good Deal higher than any other
Counter.

EABL was unchanged at 152.00 and trading 153.00 +0.66%. 24,000 shares
were transacted and Demand was some way North of that Figure.

KENOLKOBIL bounced 3.17% to close at 65.00 and traded 3,500 shares.
KENOLKOBIL was trading 66.00 +4.76% into the close.
Total traded 800 shares all at 30.00 -0.83$.

KENGEN was edged higher to close at 13.55 and traded 74,700 shares
with a 3-1 Demand versus Supply Imbalance.
KPLC was unchanged at 150.00 and traded 5,600 shares.
Cables bounced 2.28% to close at  22.50 on 3,800 shares only.

Sameer closed 2.345% better at 6.55 and traded 27,500 shares. It
started to rally from 4.55.

BOC Gases firmed 1.29% to close at 157.00 on 200 shares.
Carbacid traded 1,800 shares at 100.00 +0.5%.

Bamburi did not trade.
ARM traded 6,000 shares and all at 102.00.
Portland did not trade.

Crown Berger dipped 4.04% to close at 23.75.
Eveready shaved off 2.777% to close at 3.50.
Unga was unchanged at 9.15.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2010
 
 
 
 
RICH PODCASTS
09-sep-2010 ::  Rich Podcast 9th September 2010
08-sep-2010 ::  Rich Podcast 8th September 2010
07-sep-2010 ::  Rich Podcast 7th September 2010
06-sep-2010 ::  Rich Podcast 6th September 2010
03-sep-2010 ::  Rich Podcast 3rd September 2010
02-sep-2010 ::  Rich Podcast 2nd September 2010
 
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