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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
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Macro Thoughts

The Pound. 

Home Thoughts

At My last Mindspeak, This Fellow walks up to me and says Aly-Khan. He turned out to be a Chap who was at School in My Brother's Year at Kenton. He had a Heart Attack at 32 He told me. Anyway we went for Dinner last night at Mediterraneo Westlands. He now owns the Choma Zone which is in the last Petrol Station Total before you get to the Airport. His Uncle lived on the Ground Floor at Ross Court, I was on the 3rd [with the Chelabis 31 and 32] in Putney where I lived for 20 Years. 

Hamid Karzai’s shenanigans make the going even harder for NATO

EVER since the aftermath of last year’s disastrous presidential election in Afghanistan, Western diplomats have been talking tough about the need for thorough reform of the country’s rotten electoral system. Never again, the envoys said, would foreign governments pour cash into a machine that was controlled by the president, Hamid Karzai (right), oversaw fraud on an epic scale and handed a propaganda coup to the Taliban.They promised that foreign support for the next parliamentary election, due in September, would depend on a cull of dodgy officials from the Independent Election Commission (IEC), the body that organised the voting. Most felt that Mr Karzai should lose the right to appoint its chairman and leadership board.
They also said that he would not be allowed to weaken the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), a watchdog that has been controlled by a majority of non-Afghan officials. Citing large-scale fraud, it ordered the disqualification of nearly 1m votes that had gone to Mr Karzai in the presidential election.

Mr Karzai’s response to these foreign entreaties came this week with the publication of a presidential decree, issued while parliament was in recess. It leaves the IEC entirely unreformed. Moreover, it strips the United Nations of the power to appoint the majority of the ECC’s independent members. That prerogative is now to be held exclusively by Mr Karzai.

Conclusions

He is obviously an Operator of Sorts. 

The U.K. pound is under the gun, and a hunter who bagged big gains against the pound in the past has his sights once more on staggering sterling.James B. Rogers, the former business partner of George Soros, says sterling is a “basket case,” sagging under the weight of a depressed U.K. economy. Soros cemented his place in financial history as “the man who broke the Bank of England,” in 1992, earning more than $1 billion in the process.Rogers predicts sterling could collapse within weeks, he says in a press statement released Thursday. Separately, analysts at UBS say the pound could fall to “$1.05 and below” from around $1.52 where it traded Thursday afternoon, after slipping more than 1% on the day.

If this all sounds familiar, it’s because the nearly 20-year-old scene in which financier Soros bet $10 billion against sterling and walked away with a one-day gain of $1 billion looks to be making a repeat performance on the financial theater’s center stage.

Of course, the U.K.’s neighbors in the euro zone face their own problems, with fiscal profligate Greece spooking markets time and again over recent weeks. But investors know the European Central Bank and the big pockets of Germany likely will cough up the money to keep the common currency stable.

The pressured pound, made a pauper by the lousy U.K. economy, has no such rich uncle.

The pound, then, is “in an extremely bad position for the shakedown,” Rogers warns.

Conclusions

Thats the Risk and it has been there for quite a while. 

Euro 1.3594
Pound 1.5280 Sell Rebounds
Dollar Index 80.56
Higher Beta Currencies 
Rand 7.7225
Aussie 0.8901
Real 1.8240

Sterling overtook the euro as the main loser against the dollar among the major currencies as economic troubles and political uncertainty prompt investors to take big bets against the pound.

6-Month Bill*    -0/32    0.182
1-Year Note*    -1/32    0.294
2-Year Note*    3/32    0.828
3-Year Note*    4/32    1.362
5-Year Note*    12/32    2.328
7-Year Note*    14/32    3.053
10-Year Note*    16/32    3.634

Greece delayed plans to issue a 10-year bond until next week, after the government announces a new austerity package that will reduce spending between €2 billion and €2.5 billion ($2.7 billion to $3.4 billion), people familiar with the situation said. The government hopes to raise €3 billion to €5 billion from the bond offering.The delayed offering, along with the S&P warning and widening bond spreads, rattled investors across Europe Thursday and reignited expectations that Athens will require more than rhetorical support from European Union leaders to solve its fiscal crisis.S&P said Greece faces a potential ratings cut of one or two notches, which would place the euro-zone nation on the brink of "junk" territory and would almost certainly make it more expensive for Greece to sell debt. S&P said it didn't expect a euro-zone nation to default, nor did it expect any country to withdraw from the euro in the midterm.

Greece needs to borrow around €54 billion this year. It has so far raised €13 billion. Since about €22 billion of bonds mature in March and April, that amount must be raised from the market before then.

Credit markets also signaled increased nervousness about Greece's debt. Yields on 10-year Greek bonds rose to 3.64 percentage points above safer German bonds but remain shy of the peak 4.05-percentage-point spread reached in late January. The cost to insure against a possible Greek default also rose, but those figures remain below January highs.

Greece is under intense pressure to lower its budget gap, which hit an estimated 12.7% of gross domestic product last year, compared with the EU's 3% limit. The Socialist government has pledged to cut that deficit to 8.7% of GDP this year, and below 3% by 2012.

Dow down 53.13 Points. 

Wal-Mart, a retail giant, handles more than 1m customer transactions every hour, feeding databases estimated at more than 2.5 petabytes—the equivalent of 167 times the books in America’s Library of Congress (see article for an explanation of how data are quantified). Facebook, a social-networking website, is home to 40 billion photos. And decoding the human genome involves analysing 3 billion base pairs—which took ten years the first time it was done, in 2003, but can now be achieved in one week.

All these examples tell the same story: that the world contains an unimaginably vast amount of digital information which is getting ever vaster ever more rapidly. This makes it possible to do many things that previously could not be done: spot business trends, prevent diseases, combat crime and so on. Managed well, the data can be used to unlock new sources of economic value, provide fresh insights into science and hold governments to account. 

the industrial revolution of data.

The business of information management—helping organisations to make sense of their proliferating data—is growing by leaps and bounds. In recent years Oracle, IBM, Microsoft and SAP between them have spent more than $15 billion on buying software firms specialising in data management and analytics. This industry is estimated to be worth more than $100 billion and growing at almost 10% a year, roughly twice as fast as the software business as a whole.

There are many reasons for the information explosion. The most obvious one is technology. As the capabilities of digital devices soar and prices plummet, sensors and gadgets are digitising lots of information that was previously unavailable. And many more people have access to far more powerful tools. For example, there are 4.6 billion mobile-phone subscriptions worldwide (though many people have more than one, so the world’s 6.8 billion people are not quite as well supplied as these figures suggest), and 1 billion-2 billion people use the internet.

“Revolutions in science have often been preceded by revolutions in measurement,” says Sinan Aral, a business professor at New York University.Just as the microscope transformed biology by exposing germs, and the electron microscope changed physics, all these data are turning the social sciences upside down, he explains. Researchers are now able to understand human behaviour at the population level rather than the individual level.

The amount of digital information increases tenfold every five years. Moore’s law, which the computer industry now takes for granted, says that the processing power and storage capacity of computer chips double or their prices halve roughly every 18 months.

A vast amount of that information is shared. By 2013 the amount of traffic flowing over the internet annually will reach 667 exabytes, according to Cisco, a maker of communications gear. And the quantity of data continues to grow faster than the ability of the network to carry it all.

Yet what is happening now goes way beyond incremental growth. The quantitative change has begun to make a qualitative difference.

“What we are seeing is the ability to have economies form around the data—and that to me is the big change at a societal and even macroeconomic level,” says Craig Mundie, head of research and strategy at Microsoft. Data are becoming the new raw material of business: an economic input almost on a par with capital and labour. “Every day I wake up and ask, ‘how can I flow data better, manage data better, analyse data better?” says Rollin Ford, the CIO of Wal-Mart.

For example, Farecast, a part of Microsoft’s search engine Bing, can advise customers whether to buy an airline ticket now or wait for the price to come down by examining 225 billion flight and price records. The same idea is being extended to hotel rooms, cars and similar items. 

Conclusions

Excellent Piece and Confirmation of the Arrival of the Information Century and the Parabolic Curves of all Parabolic Curves. I wished there was a Market in Information because I would be Limit Long. The Question around Processing and Storage are of no great Interest. We have always been able to speed up our Machines and this is no different.

The Ability to consolidate, dissect and organise all this Data is something we have yet to properly comprehend. Its a very Disjunctive Moment in that Regard. And By definition, to really scale, you now need to get very Open Garden.

Its practically a Laboratory Experiment.

Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

Jeff Kafka has introduced hundreds of adventure-seeking Silicon Valley executives to kite-surfing, where riders use the wind to skim over water on a small surfboard attached to a kite. Now he is on a mission to expand his six-year-old Wind Over Water Bay Area franchise to new terrain: snow.Mr. Kafka's new base of operations is Utah's Skyline Ridge, near Salt Lake City. For the past few months, he has been growing his business in snow-kiting, a sport where people traverse the snow on a snowboard or skis with propulsion from a kite.

Waiting for the IMF to complete the Sale and expecting a move higher.

Front Sugar down 3.12%

Chairman Sunil Mittal said he was confident the company he founded would be able to apply its "minutes factory" model in Africa, referring to a low-cost, high-volume model that has made it the market leader in India with about 120 million subscribers.The total population of the 15 African countries Zain operates in was just under 500 million, and about 35 people in every 100 used mobile phones, Mittal said.

"We can substantially increase usage as well as achieve deeper penetration, resulting in rapid increase in overall traffic and improvement in margins," he said.

Mittal said Bharti was still doing due diligence but was hopeful of clinching a deal by March 25, when a period of exclusive talks end. Gupta said they had not yet come across any "extraordinary regulatory issues" that would threaten the deal.

IN THE early hours of February 24th Umaru Yar’Adua, Nigeria’s ailing and long-absent president, finally came home. After three months in a clinic in Saudi Arabia, the saga over who is in charge of Africa’s most populous country is bound to resume.The matter seemed to have been solved just two weeks ago. Goodluck Jonathan, the vice-president, took over the top job on February 9th after the prolonged power vacuum had seen government business slow down, investors grow querulous and militants in the oil-rich Niger Delta threaten to resume their rebellion.

But, suspiciously soon after Mr Jonathan took up the reins of office as a caretaker, the president is back. Mr Yar’Adua’s spokesman said he would not return to work straightaway and that Mr Jonathan would stay in charge while he recuperates. No timetable was given. All that is certain is that the unexpected homecoming adds to the uncertainty. Mr Jonathan cannot make any long-term plans for his time in office, as his stint could end at any minute.

Some people in Abuja, the capital, say the president’s return is more about undermining the handover than a sign of improving health. Since taking the helm, Mr Jonathan has seemed fairly active, demoting cabinet ministers loyal to Mr Yar’Adua and trying to revive a peace process with the Delta militants.

Conclusions

What is noteworthy is The Presence and Influence of Turai, Yar Adua's Wife. The raspy BBC Radio Interview, the return in the Dead of Night, the ninety Day Absence its all practically surreal. The Timing of the Return was a Coup De Grace. The Stock Market is relatively untroubled and counterintuitively has been on a Tear since the start of 2010.

Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

Value22,985.00    
Change-48.020     
% Change-0.208

Conclusions

Congestion at these Levels ahead of a move to 25,000.00 

Conclusions

Looking for a Move to 8.00+

Value26,731.85

Conclusions

I think its a Trading Buy at these levels. 

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           168.00
Total Shares Issued:          362,959,264
Market Capitalization:        60,977M
EPS:             8.78
PE:                 19.134
  
Year Ended Dec 2009 versus Dec 2008

Turnover 29.994b versus 27.467b
Operating Profit 7.731b versus 5.962b
Other Gains and Losses 1.558b
Profit After Tax 6.97b versus 3.413b
EPS 18.32 versus 8.78
6.427b Net Increase in Cash and Cash Equivalent - Note Well
11 Shilling Dividend [4/= special ARM related Dividend]

Highlights

Clinker Production rose by 20%
Strong Gains of 1.5b from ARM share sale but Plain Muscular even stripping out ARM. 
I cannot quibble with these results

168/18.32 = 9.17 PE and a 6.58% Yield.

Conclusions

Very Strong Results and the Price should respond accordingly. 

Par Value:                  20/-
Closing Price:           149.00
Total Shares Issued:          79,128,000
Market Capitalization:        11,790M
EPS:             40.76
PE:                 3.656

Swot Analysis 
6 months to Dec 2009 versus 2008
Revenue Electricity Sales 19.092b versus 18.225b
Total Revenue 37.467b versus 36.433b
Operating Profit 3.129b versus 2.591b
PAT 1.873b versus 1.465b
EPS 23.67 versus 18.51
Dividend 3.00 versus 2.00

Conclusions

Its a Little difficult to properly Value the Business. Underlying Metrics have strengthened but Investors still await two key Pieces of Information.

1. The Rate of Exchange to be applied to the Exchange of GOK preference shares into Ordinary equity.
2. Whether preceeding this KPLC may give its Shareholders a Bonus.

These remain the 2 Known Unknowns that are very relevant. 

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           13.60
Total Shares Issued:          2,198,361,344
Market Capitalization:        29,898M
EPS:             0.94
PE:                 14.468

Swot Analysis 6 months Dec 2009 versus Dec 2008
Electricity Revenue 4.390490b versus 5.415690b = -18.93%
Energy Related Income 981.70m versus 503.447m= +94.99%
Total Revenue 5.372191b versus 5.919137b = -9.24%
Operating Expenses 4.21446b versus 4.351325b = -3.145%
PAT 863.764m versus 1.077b = -24.68%
EPS 0.39 versus 0.49 = -20.408%

Commentary

Poor Hydrology contributed to Unit Sales Declining from 2,294m Kilowatt Hours to 1.573m Kilowatt Hours -31%.
No Interim Dividend.

Conclusions

As You can see, the lack of Rains severely crimped the 6 month Results. However, 3rd and 4th Quarter 2009 was when the Drought was at its most Brutal. This is Scale Up Business and the Bond has given KENGEN the opportunity to scale. Looking at these Results You are seeing a very Hydrology Reliant Business ahead of a major Scale Up in Capacity and types of Energy.

13.60 / [0.39 x 2 - But I would have expected a stronger 2nd Half] Implied Forward of 17.435.

Swot Analysis 12 months Dec 2009 versus 12 months Dec 2008
Turnover 2.811861b versus 3.929312b = -39.74%
Profit Before Income Tax 526.444m versus 669.927m = -27.255%
Profit from Operation 296.033m versus 462.76m = -36.02%
Other Comprehensive Income Revaluation of Property 470.394m versus 0 in 2008
Deferred Tax on that Revaluation is [141.118m]
Total Comprehensive Income for the Year 597.691m versus 472.545m = +26.48%
Profit from Operations Attributable to Subsidiary [34.618m] versus 51.742m = Big Turnaround
Non Controlling Interest [12.031m] versus 70.518m = Big Turnaround
EPS 1.52 versus 1.94 = -21.64%
Dividend held at 1.00.

Commentary 

Turnover lower because of Lower Metal Prices. Significant Reduction in Aluminium Sales. Restructuring Tanzania. 
Factory cost 441m which is I assume where the Revaluation of Property is coming from. 

23.00 / 1.52 = PE 15.131

Value3,627.30

Conclusions

A close about 1% higher would signal a move to 4000.00

Tiomin Resources Inc said it agreed to sell its Kwale mineral sands project in Kenya to Australian junior miner Base Iron Ltd for $3 million and a cash royalty, mainly to improve its cash position.The company said the deal includes the sale of intellectual property related to mineral sands projects in Africa and an option for Base Iron to acquire 100 percent of Tiomin's unit, Tiomin Kenya Ltd.The company said it would receive a cash royalty of 1.5 percent of all product revenue from Kwale, to be paid monthly in arrears.The project, located south of Kenya's Mombasa port, is expected to produce titanium and zirconium. Last year, China's Jinchuan Group Ltd terminated an agreement under which the top Chinese nickel producer was to acquire 70 percent stake in the project.Tiomin, which last month agreed to acquire diamond explorer Vaaldiam Resources Ltd, said the asset sale allows it to focus on Brazil, where Vaaldiam has major operations.Tiomin shares were down 12.5 percent at 3.5 Canadian cents in morning trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

A diamond the size of a chicken egg unearthed in South Africa last
year was sold for a record price to Hong Kong’s Chow Tai Fook
Jewellery Co., according to Petra Diamonds Ltd., which discovered the
gem at its Cullinan mine.

The 507.6-carat rough diamond, weighing more than 100 grams (3.5
ounces), was sold at a South African tender today for $35.3 million,
St. Helier, Jersey-based Petra said in a statement. It says the stone
is about as large as a medium-sized chicken egg.

Kenya's tourism earnings rose by 18 percent to 62.4 billion Kenya
shillings in 2009 from a year earlier, helped by a 30 percent rise in
arrivals, the Kenya Tourist Board (KTB) said on Friday.

"For 2010, we are looking to recover to our record growth in 2007,"
KTB Chairman Jake Grieves-Cook told a news conference. "2009 was a
year when KTB was very active."

The sector earned 65.4 billion shillings in 2007, the best year in the
sector's history, before a bloody post-election crisis and then the
global economic downturn hurt the sector.

BEIJING -- China and Kenya plan to search for ancient Chinese ships
wrecked almost 600 years ago off Africa's east coast.An agreement was
signed for a three-year project funded by China's Commerce Ministry to
explore waters near the popular tourist towns of Malindi and Lamu, the
official Xinhua News Agency reported Friday.Exploration work will be
conducted for up to three months each year, with the first group of
Chinese archaeologists due to arrive as early as July, Xinhua said.The
sunken ships are believed to have been part of a massive fleet led by
Ming dynasty admiral Zheng He that reached Malindi in 1418. Kenyan
lore has long told of shipwrecked Chinese sailors settling in the
region and marrying local women.