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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

My Interview with KCB CEO Martin Oduor-Otieno can be found here RICH TV
http://bit.ly/81lKEb

Macro Thoughts

Selling the Euro at 1.2753
Selling Euro Sterling
Note Well the Breakfast Commodities.
The Nairobi Stock Exchange looks set for another Leg Higher. +30% YTD.

Home Thoughts

When we were in Johannesburg, the Girls became fond of hanging about
the Kitchen. There was a Production Line of very Tasty Cakes,
especially a very Fluffy and Light Chocolate Cake. Hannah had some
'clickety clackety' Shoes so her movements echoed everywhere she went.
She did in fact insist on going out in those shoes. I overhear her
talking to the Cook as she is feeding herself with some Cake.

Hannah 'Its very good here. The Cakes but I think My Aunty in Nairobi
Lynette will be very sad. So I have to go.'

When I got back, I told Lynette [who wanted a Bofana Bofana Shirt as
we were reminded everyday by Hannah] ;

'You Know Lynette You have her very well trained' and told her the Story

Given the Little One's Propensity for Chocolate, I think she too was
quietly impressed with her Handiwork.

Euro 1.2748 FED Comments were bearish about the US Economy
Sterling 1.5273
Dollar Index 83.30
Aussie 0.8816
South Korean Won 1202.10
Real 1.7629
Rand 7.55 - Strong Retail Sales for the 5th Month

The Fed minutes noted a "relatively modest" worsening in the U.S.
economic outlook, and said further monetary stimulus could be needed
if the economy showed more signs of slowing.

Fed officials forecast gross domestic product to grow 3% to 3.5%,
compared to previous estimates of 3.2% to 3.7%.

Conclusions

The FED Kept the Dollar on the Back Foot.

6-Month Bill*    0.193
1-Year Note*    0.268
2-Year Note*    0.609
3-Year Note*    1.024
5-Year Note*    13/32    1.812
7-Year Note*    17/32    2.485
10-Year Note*    20/32    3.050
30-Year Bond*    1 8/32    4.036

Conclusions

The FED is over the Horizon again re Interest Rate Increase.

The Dow Industrials added 3.70 points, or 0.04% to 10366.72.Eked out
its 7th Consecutive Gain.
Google releases 2nd Quarter and is down 21% for the Year.

Charlene Lynette Wittstock knows a thing or two about going the
distance. Born in 1978, in the city of Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, Wittstock
has been a world-class swimmer since her teens.The constant companion,
since 2006, of His Serene Highness Prince Albert II of Monaco

The nine-room apartment is entered on the Plaza’s 20th floor. A
circular staircase and private elevator lead to a rooftop extension,
with a terrace facing Central Park.

Conclusions

There is a wonderful Oyster Bar on the Ground Floor.

Crude-oil futures settled lower Wednesday in a last-minute reversal
prompted by the release of Federal Reserve minutes in which policy
makers trimmed growth prospects for this year and 2011.Crude oil for
August delivery lost 14 cents, or 0.1%, to $77.04 a barrel on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. The contract had started the session lower,
fluctuated in early session, but just before the release of the
minutes was gaining 0.5%, buoyed by a weaker dollar.

Last Price    3149
Contract High    3522
Contract Low    2237

Conclusions

Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Tea [Orange Juice] = Breakfast Commodities =
apparently based out. I expect a Strong Move Higher from hereon in.

A black Poppy somniferum

The yacht's three pools include a high-powered jet pool for laps that
can be switched from salt to fresh water.

China’s economic growth eased to 10.3 percent in the second quarter
after the government succeeded in tempering credit expansion,
investment spending and property speculation.The pace compares with an
11.9 percent gain in January- March from a year earlier. Inflation
cooled to 2.9 percent in June, the statistics bureau also reported in
Beijing today. Industrial output rose a less-than-estimated 13.7
percent.

The figures signal a diminishing risk of economic overheating, and
give Premier Wen Jiabao more room to scale back restrictions on bank
lending by year-end. A deeper slowdown in the nation forecast to
account for one third of global growth this year would compound risks
for a world recovery already clouded by European budget cuts and
limited American job gains.

China’s economy will overtake Japan’s as the world’s second biggest
this year and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development said in March that it may account for a third of global
growth. So far, the government has cooled the economy by targeting a
22 percent reduction in new loans this year to 7.5 trillion yuan,
raising lenders’ reserve requirements and selling bills to soak up
cash.

Conclusions

“There’s no more tightening happening in China” given the slowing
expansion, said Stephen Green, head of China research for Standard
Chartered Bank in Shanghai.

“It’s a moderation, stupid!” was the heading on a note this month from
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. economist Liu Li-Gang, who
argued that “fears of a sharp slowdown are vastly overstated.”

China’s largest bank by customers advanced  to 2.72 yuan (40 cents) as
of 10:32 a.m. local time from the IPO price of 2.68 yuan, giving it a
market capitalization of $127.8 billion. The stock earlier reached
2.74 yuan. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped as much as 1
percent.

The IPO makes China the home to four of the world’s 10 biggest banks
by market value, half a decade after the country’s first major
state-owned lender went public. Agricultural Bank has given
underwriters authority to expand the sale by as much as 15 percent to
$22.1 billion, which would make it the largest IPO ever.

Agricultural Bank is also raising $10.5 billion in Hong Kong. Those
shares, priced at HK$3.20, start trading tomorrow.

Agricultural Bank’s Shanghai price represents 1.55 times end-2010 book
value as estimated by the IPO underwriters. That compares with 1.82
times for ICBC, 1.77 times for China Construction Bank, and 1.51 times
for Bank of China.

Chinese domestic investors ordered more than 10 times the stock
available to them, betting the bank will be able to boost profit by
lowering a cost-to-income ratio that’s 20 percent higher than the
average among China’s publicly traded banks.

Index Value:    2,461.62
Change:    Down 8.82 (0.36%)
Day's Range:    2,446.96 - 2,487.24
52wk Range:    2,319.74 - 3,478.01

Conclusions

Sell out of the Money Puts. I am with the “It’s a moderation, stupid!” IDEA.

Index Value:    17,918.18
Change:    Down 19.98 (0.11%)
52wk Range:    13,891.00 - 18,047.90

Conclusions

Trading 2 Year Highs.

Qatari Diar Finance, the property arm of the Gulf Arab state's
sovereign wealth fund, sold a two-part $3.5 billion bond deal
Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the transaction.The
$2.5 billion 10-year tranche offers a yield premium of 1.90 percentage
points over comparable U.S. Treasurys to yield 5.004%. The $1 billion
five-year tranche carries a yield of 3.665%.

Conclusions

190 Over the US! That is an inefficient Market right there.

The average yield on sukuk sold by Gulf Cooperation Council borrowers
fell eight basis points yesterday to 7.23 percent, according to the
HSBC/NASDAQ Dubai GCC US Dollar Sukuk Index. It reached 8.76 percent
on Dec. 11 after Dubai investment companies announced plans to
restructure debt in November. The yield on Nakheel’s 2.75 percent $750
million fixed-rate Islamic notes due in January 2011 has fallen 17
basis points this month to 15.30 percent, according to prices compiled
by Bloomberg.

The yield difference on GCC sukuk and the London interbank offered
rate narrowed six basis points yesterday to 535 basis points from as
wide as 647 at the end of November. The price of sukuk issued by
Nakheel, which is building palm tree-shaped islands off Dubai’s coast,
has risen to 108.06 from 107.50 at the end of last month and as low as
37.5 on Dec. 9. The yield has dropped from a record 140 percent.

Nakheel plans to offer creditor banks interest of 4 percentage points
more than benchmark rates on new loans as part of the debt
restructuring, two bankers with knowledge of the plan said yesterday.
In return, lenders would agree to extend the life of the loans by five
years, said the people.

Conclusions

“The Nakheel experience produced a lot of volatility and trading
losses without a final default,” said Zurich-based Tobias Bettkober, a
convertible bond manager overseeing $400 million at Holinger Asset
Management. “It will still be a long way and substantial changes in
issuance conditions before they can come back to the market because
they harmed themselves and Dubai with this execution track record.”
Holinger previously owned Nakheel debt.

Improving Metrics but off an egregious Position.

Value1,504.71   
Change-3.530    
% Change-0.234

Conclusions

Cover Shorts and Take a small Long Bias.

Japan's Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp is in the final stages of
buying South African IT firm Dimension Data for 300 billion yen, the
Nikkei business daily reported on Thursday.

Dimension Data Holdings PLC share price data Bloomberg
http://bit.ly/caqGXT

Price1,157.000   
Change-1.000
% Change-0.086
52-Wk High (07/14/10)1,193.000   
52-Wk Low (09/28/09)721.000   
1-Yr Return53.263
Earnings0.080   
Price/Earnings19.089

Ghana achieved an economic landmark on Wednesday as annualised June
inflation fell to 9.52 percent, the first time the key indicator
dipped into single digits since April 2006.

That was down from 10.68 percent in May and was the 12th consecutive
monthly fall, prompting hopes of a further cut in the 15 percent prime
rate on Friday after the Bank of Ghana holds a rate meeting.

"A rate cut of at least 100 basis points is very much on the cards. We
would not be surprised if we saw a lot more," said Razia Khan, head of
Africa research at Standard Chartered bank.

Conclusions

Optimal and Bullish for the Equity Market as well.

Ghana All share Index Bloomberg Visual +10.68% 2010
http://bit.ly/clv2QZ

Value6,167.95   
Change-111.050    
% Change-1.769

Conclusions

The Pull Back is affording a Re Entry Point just about here.

It’s hard to personalize a story if the faces of its subjects can’t be
seen.When the photographer Peter DiCampo encountered this problem in
an area of northern Ghana where most communities live almost
completely without electricity, his solution was simple.

He captured haunting portraits lit only by flashlight.

Mr. DiCampo, 26, lived in a small village called Wantugu for two years
as a Peace Corps volunteer. When he went there, he promised himself he
would put his camera on the back of the shelf. In “Life Without
Lights,” a multimedia project, he chose to show people’s lives after
dark, a difficult task from both the technical and the narrative
perspective.

Mobile phones charge off a generator in Voggu, Ghana. Nearly every
household in the village has at least one phone. The owner of the
generator usually imposes a fee. Feb. 14, 2010.

Conclusions

The Mobile Phone was a Revolutionary Thing in Africa.

Value27,443.67   
Change-52.270    
% Change-0.190

Conclusions

Interesting Triangle Pattern Developing.

Zimbabwe’s Finance Minister Tendai Biti cut his forecast for economic
growth this year after foreign donors failed to commit as much money
as expected, according to the mid-term budget review.Gross domestic
product will expand about 5.4 percent, Biti said in his presentation
to parliament in the capital, Harare, today. In the annual budget
announced in December 2009, Biti estimated the economy would grow 7
percent in 2010.

The forecast was lowered “due to a number of factors, mainly the
fragility of our economy,” Biti said in a phone interview from Harare
today.

On coming into office, Biti, a member of the MDC, abandoned the
Zimbabwe dollar and adopted a “multi-currency” economy that saw
inflation plummet from 500 billion percent to deflation. Since then,
inflation accelerated to 6.1 percent in May, the Harare-based
statistics office said last month.

Inflation is expected to slow to between 4 percent and 5 percent by
year-end, Biti said. Inflation data for June should be released by the
country’s statistics office tomorrow.

Zimbabwe wants to mine all alluvial diamonds through a state-owned
company governed by a diamond act, Biti said.

Value75.57   
Change0.440    
% Change0.586

Conclusions

Quite Counterintuitive in that it has turned higher ahead of the Referendum.

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:          5.90
Total Shares Issued:          40,000,000,000
Market Capitalization:        236,000M
EPS:            0.38
PE:                15.526

Conclusions

6.10 is Key Resistance and I expect a Move through there.

Nation Media Group expects double-digit profit growth this year to
come from increases in print and broadcast revenue, and its Tanzania
and Uganda businesses to move to black, its chief executive
said.Nation, the largest media house in east Africa, posted a 15
percent fall in profit last year, dragged down by smaller advertising
budgets due to sluggish economic growth and cash-guzzling investments
at home and in neighbouring countries.

CEO Linus Gitahi said a benign economic growth outlook and lower costs
of newsprint this year would add to the momentum from buinesses
breaking even in neighbouring nations and in Business Daily, a Kenyan
title launched in 2007.

"Since the top line is also growing and the middle line (costs) is
shrinking, I expect to deliver pretty good results to the market this
year ... high double digits (pretax growth)," he said in his
office.The CEO said Nation would release its half-year results soon.
The company does not release quarterly figures.The company's print
division posted a 34 percent expansion in revenue during the first
half, helped by growth in advertising and circulation, at home and in
the regional market which The East African targets.The group's
Tanzanian newspaper operations did well in the period, Gitahi said,
adding Nation TV in Uganda would break even in 2010, a year ahead of
schedule.He defended the performance of NTV Kenya, which according to
some analysts has lost viewers to rival Citizen TV, saying the
channels had different target audiences and total advertising revenue
was evenly shared.

Nation is using some of its 2 billion shillings ($24.52 million) war
chest to spearhead its a two-year old digital division of 15 staff
push into new media.The division is responsible for the group's
websites, breaking news alerts for mobile phones and developing
digital strategies for other firms.It is operating at a loss despite a
revenue of 25 million shillings a month, but Nation wants it to keep
trying fresh ideas, Gitahi said.

"All this is new business. It's still challenging but we want to
invest more. I want them to continue on experimenting in the
foreseeable future because we can afford it," Gitahi said.

"People have gone online but that content is free and the
(advertising) clients have not realised that is a formidable way of
advertising as the traditional paper."

"We no longer have big brothers to teach us. We can teach them and
that is the attitude we have adopted. We need to relate with people in
the internet, we need to develop products and services, and we need to
make money," Gitahi said.

"Expecting a growth (for print media) of 8-10 percent year-on-year for
the next five-ten years is not unrealistic," he said.

Nation Media will invest $4 million in a new printing press in Uganda
and spend another $1.5 million, upgrading its printing facility in
Kenya, the CEO said.

It is also looking to start television broadcasts in Tanzania,
possibly through an acquisition, and launch in south Sudan and Zambia
over a period of two to three years, Gitahi said.

Conclusions

Very Thorough.

Nation Media share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/5MKGb9

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:          141.00
Total Shares Issued:          142,610,528
Market Capitalization:        20,108M
EPS:            7.70
PE:                18.312

Oil marketer KenolKobil will not process crude oil at the Kenya
Petroleum Refineries Limited, a court has ruled.The two firms have
been in a long-standing dispute.

Lady Justice Martha Koome ruled that KPRL had a right to terminate a
processing agreement entered into by the two.

“The notice issued by KPRL to terminate the agreement is in accordance
with the contract,” said the Judge.

Locking out the company has adversely affected its marketing and
distribution given that KenolKobil runs a chain of petrol stations in
the country.KPRL has had a drawn-out dispute with KenolKobil over what
it said was non-payment of Sh456 million processing charges.KenolKobil
had also lodged a claim of over Sh2 billion and which had increased
upwards to over Sh4 billion for loss of business and damages.KPRL
terminated the agreement on July 10, 2009 and refused to participate
in arbitration as envisaged in the contract.The agreement provided
that either party could determine the contract by giving a one year
notice.KPRL stated it was within the provisions of the agreement when
it terminated the contract for alleged non-performance.

Conclusions

Relevant.

The NSE20 closed +14.89 points at 4344.84 which is a New Closing High for 2010.
The NASI rose 0.32 points to close at 96.50.
Market Cap was 1.125972 Trillion versus 1.120455 Trillion Last time.
Equity Turnover was 184.328m versus 376.092m with Sellers Scarce in
Barclays Bank and KenGen the standout Gainers today.

SAFARICOM

shares volume     5,891,400
total turnover      34,856,312
avg price     5.92 Closing Price 5.90 Unchanged
high price     5.95
low price     5.90
last price     5.95

Conclusions

We sit 20 cents [3.2786%] below the 12 month High of 6.10. I believe
we are set to cross 6.00 and then 6.10. There is about 15m shares
showing for sale between 6.00-6.10 and the Actual Figure might be
twice that. I expect the Overhang to be cleared. Safaricom was the 2nd
most actively traded Counter at the Bourse.

Kenya Airways eased 0.52% to close at 47.50. Kenya Airways traded a
46.75-48.25 range and 231,600 shares worth 11m. The Price is being
supported here.

Nation rose 0.71% to close at 142.00 and traded 23,800 shares. The
Price was responding to an UpBeat Interview given by the CEO Linus
Gitahi to Reuters yesterday.
Standard traded 200 shares at 39.25.

Scangroup was unchanged at 39.25 and traded 34,200 shares.

Access Kenya firmed 1.2% to close at 21.00 and traded 50,100 shares.

CMC Holdings firmed 5 cents to close at 12.65 and traded a 12.50-12.85
range and 81,300 shares.
CarGen did not trade.

TPS Serena closed at 56.50 and traded 6,400 shares.

The Big Cap Banks have been the Leaders in this latest Move Higher.
COOP Bank is not far off all time Highs, Stanchart is at a 3 and a
half Year closing high and Barclays at a 2 Year High.

Barclays Bank rallied 3.846% to close at 67.50 and was trading at
70.00 +7.69% session highs into the Close. Barclays has closed at a 2
Year Closing High and traded 58,500 shares with Demand for 11x what
was traded. Buyers have been stirred by Speculation in some quarters
of a prospective special Dividend.

Equity Bank was the most active Counter at the Bourse. Equity Bank
firmed 1.11% to close at 23.00 and traded a 22.75-23.75 range and
closed out the session trading at 23.75 +4.4% session Highs. Equity
Bank traded 1.880m shares worth 43.319m.

KCB eased 0.28% to close at 18.00 and traded a 18.00-18.15 range and
887,300 shares worth 15.993m. I did an Interview yesterday with Martin
Odour-Otieno found here http://bit.ly/81lKEb . KCB's price is at or
has crossed the Bottom, I venture. The Sequential Quarter on Quarter
Narrative +16% 1st Half +10% 1st Quarter confirms that the Bounce is
underway.

Stanchart rallied a further 0.86% to close at 235.00. Stanchart traded
a 233.00-240.00 range and 57,800 shares worth 13.592m. This is a 3 and
a Half Year Closing High.

COOP Bank rose 0.35% to close at 14.40 and was trading at 14.50 +1.05%
into the close. COOP Bank traded 502,300 shares and had previously
struck 8+ Consecutive All Time Highs. The Correction after that Rally
is apparently ending and we probably are headed back to 15.00.

CFC StanBic dipped 1.18% to close at 83.50 and traded 36,100 shares.
It has rallied 108.75% in 2 Months.
DTB closed 50 cents better at 89.50 and traded 3,400 shares.
HFCK firmed 1.19% to close at 21.25 and traded 67,900 shares.
NBK closed lower at 37.75 and traded 7,500 shares.
NIC eased 0.64% to close at 39.00 and traded 61,900 shares.

Centum was unchanged at 22.50 and traded 125,200 shares.

Kenya Re was unchanged at 11.30 and traded 193,400 shares.
Jubilee eased 0.61% to close at 164.00 and traded 800 shares.
PanAfric was unchanged at 69.00.

Olympia Capital closed at 7.40.

KenGen rallied 3.19% to close at 17.80. KenGen traded a 17.00-18.00

range and 286,700 shares. It Points higher.
KPLC was unchanged at 199.00 and traded a 198.00-200.00 range and 20,400 shares.
Cables was unchanged at 20.25 and traded 11,400 shares.

Mumias Sugar firmed 0.4% to close at 12.55 and traded a 12.55-12.65
range and 575,000 shares.

BAT rose 0.44% to close at 229.00 and traded 9,000 shares.

EABL was unchanged at 181.00 and traded 8,900 shares.

KenolKobil was unchanged at 10.90 and traded a 10.85-10.95 range and
485,900 shares.
Total traded 19,400 shares unchanged at 29.25.

Bamburi Cement traded 2,300 shares at an unchanged 200.00.
ARM dipped 1.39% to close at 142.00 and traded 3,900 shares.
Portland traded 2,200 shares at 115.00 -0.86%.

BOC Kenya rallied 3.65% to close at 142.00.
Carbacid traded 900 shares at +0.66% 153.00.
Crown Berger closed at 32.25 and traded 8,100 shares.
Eveready reversed 2.5% to close at 3.90 and traded 59,800 shares.
Sameer closed at 8.50 -2.86%.
Unga closed at 11.90 and traded 15,000 shares.