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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

RICH TV Interview with Martin Oduor-Otieno CEO KCB
http://bit.ly/81lKEb

I have to say I thought it pretty good.
Check out Martin's Karma!

Macro Thoughts

Fears of Endemic US Economic Weakness.

Home Thoughts

Most Mornings the Littlest One insists on dropping me at the Office.
This Morning she was lying in My lap, watching the Lights through the
Window. And in my mind I was hearing Louis Armstrong

Louis Armstrong What a Wonderful World YouTube
http://j.mp/b2THyv

The Obama administration on Thursday said it would bolster its support
to the African Union troops providing much of the firepower in
Somalia's battle against al Shabaab, the Somali militant group that
has claimed responsibility for Sunday's deadly blasts in Uganda.The
triple bombing in Kampala, Uganda's capital, killed 76 people,
including one American, gathered in a restaurant and a bar during
Sunday's World Cup soccer final.

Ugandan officials say they believe more than 20 members of Somalia's
al Shabaab militant group entered Uganda several months before the
blasts. Ugandan authorities have arrested nine people, all Somalis, in
connection with the attack since Monday, according to a Ugandan
military official close to the investigation.

An Al Shabaab leader on Thursday thanked its militants who carried out
the weekend attacks and said more such attacks would be carried out in
Uganda. "I say to the Ugandan president what has happened in Kampala
was only the beginning. We will keep revenging what your soldiers
remorselessly did to our people," Sheik Muktar Abu Zubayr said in an
audio message played on Mogadishu radio stations, according to the
Associated Press.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni said at a news conference Thursday
that his country is committed to sending 2,000 more troops to Somalia
that would add to some 3,500 Ugandan soldiers under the African Union
Mission in Somalia, or Amisom.
U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley, speaking in a briefing
on Thursday, welcomed Uganda's pledge to add the troops. Mr. Crowley
also said 63 FBI agents have arrived in the region to assist with the
investigation into Kampala attacks.

"We have reviewed since Sunday the support that we're providing to
Amisom. We are going to beef that up," Mr. Crowley said. "We've been
the major contributor to the Amisom mission. That won't change."The
U.S. State Department, under a program known as Africap, provides
funding for private contractors to train, outfit, transport and supply
African troops in various peacekeeping missions. The State
Department's latest contract, which began in September 2009, provides
$1.5 billion to private contractors to outfit Amisom and other troops.

In a nod to critics, though, the president vowed to get tougher at
home in order to prevent any attacks from al Shabaab. The initial
targets of a security crackdown could be those in Uganda, notably the
estimated 6,000 Somalis who mostly have fled fighting at home.There
have been several bomb scares throughout Kampala since Sunday's
attacks, including six on Wednesday alone. Ugandan police say all were
false alarms.

Conclusions

This was actually widely telegraphed by the Al Shabaab. Their
Unhappiness with the Ugandans and Football, as well. Nevertheless, it
is the first time they have exported their Product beyond their
Borders. It will also make Life a Pressure Cooker for the Somali
Diaspora residing in African Cities. If it happens again there is a
serious Risk for those Populations, a Consequence the Al Shabaab might
not be unhappy about.
I cannot but help feel that the c21st presents an extraordinarily
Aysymettric Situation. One Deluded Young Man with a Bomb in his Pants
is the clearest example. The World is now a very Fat Tail. Our
Response needs to be more subtle than using a SledgeHammer to crack a
Nut.
The Question remains around How to Tip the Balance.
Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

Mogadishu Image Flickr
http://j.mp/bbJjWg

Euro 1.2920 -
Pound 1.5419
Dollar Index 82.43
Aussie 0.8755
South Korean Won 1202.2
Rand 7.5579

The euro on Thursday rallied to top the $1.29 level for the first time
since May 10 as a successful Spanish auction eased concerns over
Europe, while signs of slowing U.S. economic growth pressured the U.S.
unit.In recent action, the euro was up 1.3% at $1.2906 after rising as
high as $1.2917 earlier.Chart traders see the $1.30 level as an
important test for the single currency.

"U.S. fundamentals are making the dollar less attractive to
investors," said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT.

Conclusions

That was a Big Move in the Euro, yesterday. Higher Beta did not follow
through with it, though.

Euro versus the Dollar INO 3 month Chart
http://j.mp/bxIoJI

The gush of oil from BP's spewing well in the Gulf of Mexico was
stopped for the first time in three months yesterday, raising hopes
that it could be sealed off for good.The Obama administration
immediately warned that a cap sealing off the well might only be a
temporary fix. "We're encouraged by this development, but this isn't
over," said Thad Allen, the US Coast Guard commander.
But for the first time in 87 days, it appeared last night that BP had
control over the well.

BP share Price data Yahoo Finance 1 Year Chart
http://j.mp/b8u1oh

US regulators yesterday demonstrated their determination to crack down
on Wall Street's excesses during the subprime mortgage crisis by
handing Goldman Sachs a fine of $550m, and warning that "half truths
and deception" would not be tolerated.

In the humiliating settlement with the Securities and Exchange
Commission, Goldman accepted the largest fine in the commission's
history and accepted that the marketing materials it issued to
investors for the Abacus transaction at the heart of the regulator's
case gave "incomplete information".

Goldman's shares leapt $6.16 to close at $145.22.

Conclusions

A Deal was always going to be made and whilst that might look
optically a Big Number, it most definitely is not.

Buy Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs share price data Digital Look
http://j.mp/bQRcVy

Share Price     $145.22
52 Week High     $192.28
52 Week Low     $131.08
Volume     21,621,842
Shares Issued     514.79m
Market Cap     $74,758m
PE    7.7      Trailing

Conclusions

Looks very cheap especially with the Regulator Risk Angle now squared off.

Net income rose 24 percent to $1.84 billion, or $5.71 a share, from
$1.49 billion, or $4.66, a year earlier, the company said yesterday.
Excluding some items, profit  was $6.45 a share, compared with an
average estimate of $6.52 in a Bloomberg survey of analysts.Google,
based in Mountain View, California, fell as much as $25.02 to $469 in
extended trading yesterday following the report. The shares have
dropped 20 percent this year.

Google also announced its first bond offering yesterday, saying its
board had authorized the company to borrow as much as $3 billion to
fund general corporate expenses. Moody’s Investors Service assigned
Google an Aa2 rating, the third-highest investment grade.The ranking
reflects Google’s leadership in Internet search and online
advertising, as well as the potential growth from YouTube, mobile
advertising and operating systems, the ratings company said. Moody’s
also cited Google’s $30 billion of cash and lack of debt.

The company’s expenses climbed 22 percent to $4.46 billion in the
period, a steeper gain than the 18 percent rise in the first quarter.

Conclusions

“We do have controls -- we do manage the company very responsibly,”
Pichette said. “The question for me is actually the opposite, which
is: In this kind of environment, where we know the digital economy is
really going gangbusters, why would we not invest?”

Dow closed down 7.41 Points but was down about a 100 before that late Move.

Mr. Limbaugh's 10-room condominium, which features a 30-foot-wide
living room with fireplace and four terraces overlooking Central Park
at East 86th Street, went into contract Thursday for a bit under the
final $12.95 million asking price, brokers said.

A mural decorates a bedroom ceiling in the condominium just sold by
Rush Limbaugh.

Crude for August delivery lost 42 cents, or 0.6%, to $76.62 a
barrel.But the star of the day was natural gas, with the August
contract rallying 6.5%, adding 28 cents to $4.59 per million British
thermal units.

Unidentified cocoa investors have put themselves in position to demand
delivery of more cocoa than is stored in all the certified warehouses
in Europe, a potential squeeze that drove prices to 33-year highs
Thursday.If the investor or investors follow through and require the
counterparties who sold them contracts for future delivery to make
good, they could take possession of cocoa valued at more than $1
billion.The NYSE Liffe commodity exchange on Thursday disclosed that
investors still held 24,866 contracts to take delivery of cocoa in
July, translating to 248,600 metric tons.

Conclusions

The Bunker Hunt Trade. I was once the Victim of a Squeeze in the JGB
Bond Market and Japan was like Cocoa, You have to deliver and
therefore, the Price can just about go anywhere. In my case, I paid
-15% to Borrow Japanese CTD Bonds for 90 Days. The Face Amount was not
immaterial either.

Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

Cocoa Dec 2010 INO
http://j.mp/cFbxrD

Last Price    17.78
Contract High    21.56
Contract Low    11.9

World sugar futures climbed to 12-week highs Thursday on concern over
shrinking global crops and continued strong demand.
Most active October sugar traded on ICE Futures U.S. rose 0.42 cent,
or 2.5%, to settle at 17.39 cents a pound. The intraday high of 17.46
is the strongest price for the contract since it hit 17.45 cents April
22.

Conclusions

I expect further Upside Traction in Sugar and the Breakfast Commodity
Asset Class as a whole from here. Tea also looks as if it is basing
out.

MTN Group Ltd. plans to return more money to shareholders as it
balances investor needs with its own growth aspirations, Chief
Executive Officer Phuthuma Nhleko said.

“One of the things we will do is to increase dividend payout ratio,”
he said at the company’s annual general meeting today. “Future growth
will be organic and likely to be smaller bolt on acquisitions.”

MTN share price data Bloomberg
http://j.mp/a53yju

Price11,305.000   
Change305.000    
% Change2.773
52-Wk High (08/11/09)13,433.000   
52-Wk Low (05/21/10)9,502.000   
1-Yr Return-11.169
Earnings7.914    Price/Earnings14.075

Conclusions

Deserving of a Higher Multiple on the Basis of Reduced Big Ticket
Transaction Risk.

Value27,474.68   
Change31.010    
% Change0.113

Conclusions

Making Its way back to Scratch.

Conclusions

Unable to follow through on the Upside notwithstanding a Stronger Euro Dollar.

Value6,049.19   
Change-8.080    
% Change-0.133

Value24,778.89   
Change-0.790    
% Change-0.003

Conclusions

I think the Correction lower is nearing Completion.

The cut-off interest rate on Kenya's 91-day Treasury bill dipped to
1.728 percent at Thursday's auction from 1.801 percent in the previous
sale, central bank said. The Central Bank of Kenya said it received
bids worth 5.3 billion shillings ($65 million) for 5 billion shillings
offered. It accepted 5.2 billion.

Conclusions

Oversubscription Rate Down some.

Reflections on Life, Treasury Bills and The Referendum The Star
http://j.mp/a0FTVm

Last month, Kenya became the first country in sub-Sahara Africa,
outside South Africa, to issue a 25-year bond paper, raising Sh7.5
billion.Treasury now wants to raise Sh15 billion by reopening last
month’s bond.The money borrowed will be repaid in 2035 with interest
paid biannually.Interested investors have until 2 p.m. July 20, 2010
to submit their bids, according to a press ad placed in the Daily
Nation on Thursday.

The June’s issue was oversubscribed by over 260 per cent after
investors returned bids worth Sh27 billion against the offered Sh7.5
billion.

By returning to the market, Central Bank of Kenya, the government’s
borrowing agent, is hoping to capture investors who missed out in
June’s issue.The bond is priced at an indicative coupon rate of 11.25
per cent.However, cutthroat competition among investors depressed the
average interest rate on the debt to 10.5 per cent.Experts project the
market rates to fall further.

The 25-year bond adds to the 20-year, 15-year, 12-year and 10-year
bonds that have been launched in the past three years, helping to
increase Kenya’s debt maturity from 3.8 years to 5.5 years.

Conclusions

It was a First and went off the shelves so fast, They are coming to
sell some more.

Value75.72

Spectacular pictures show how he balances 300 metres above a lake
locked in gymnastic poses with one of his students, Kenyan Moses
Wepukhuli, 25.  Terrifying: Extreme artist Eskil Ronningsbakken and
student Moses Wepukhuli perform their daredevil balancing act in
Geiranger, Norway

Lucrative accounts that have shifted include Kenya Airways from Gina
Din to Ogilvy, and KCB and Samsung from Scangroup to Gina Din.Ogilvy
snatched Telkom Kenya from Africa Practice, while Zain, bought
recently by Bharti, is to change from ZK to Ogilvy.

“Competition has helped to transform PR from events related strategies
to a strong component in shaping corporate communications for many
organisations,” says Mr Denis Chebitwey, a former media manager at
Gina Din, who is now the chief executive officer Kenya Year Book, a
parastatal.

Conclusions

Interesting Space.

 The NSE All Share closed +0.56 points at 97.06 a new 2010 Closing High
and a 23 Month Closing High. 01st Jan 2008 The Index was at 100.00.
The NSE 20 closed +27.70 points at 4372.53. That is a new 2010 Closing High.
Market Cap closed at 1.132509 Trillion versus 1.125972 Trillion last time.
Equity Turnover was 259.485m versus 184.328m.

Sasini Tea was unchanged at 14.00 and traded 46,900 shares.
Rea Vipingo closed at 17.25 and traded 1,200 shares.

Safaricom

shares volume     5,305,400
total turnover      31,333,430
avg price     5.91 Closing Price 5.90 Unchanged
high price     5.95
low price     5.90
last price     5.90

Conclusions

Safaricom was the 3rd most active Counter and closed at 5.90
unchanged. Safaricom targets 6.10 but the Volume Numbers are slowing
down confirming Sellers are in fact at 6.00 now.

TPS Serena was the 2nd most actively traded Counter at the Bourse. TPS
Serena rallied 3.536% to close at 58.50 and was trading at session
Highs of 59.00 +4.42% into the Close. TPS Serena traded 670,500 shares
worth 39.505m. TPS Serena has returned 81.159% over the last 12 months
and results confirmed a sharp Snap Back in 2009.

TPS Serena share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/5Ve4gj

Presentation by Mahmud Jan Mohamed at Mindspeak
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcfrbs/frbsmedia.php

Kenya Airways was unchanged at 47.50 and traded a 47.50-48.00 range
and 56,800 shares.

Nation firmed 0.7% to close at 143.00 and traded 4,500 shares.
Standard was marked down 5.73% to close at 37.00 and traded 3,900 shares.

Scangroup eased 1.91% to close at 38.50 and traded 6,300 shares.

Access Kenya eased 1.19% to close at 20.75 and traded 82,000 shares.

CMC Holdings eased 0.4% to close at 12.60 and traded 27,400 shares.
CarGen did not trade.

The Big Cap Banking Stocks Continue to exhibit Strength and Market
Leadership ahead of a slew of 1st Half Results next week.

Equity Bank was the most active Counter ahead of its 1st Half Earnings
Release expected Tuesday Pre Opening. Equity Bank rallied 3.26% to
close at 23.75 and traded a 23.25-24.00 range and 2.532m shares worth
60.102m. Equity Bank sharply inflected its Earnings 1st Quarter and if
that Momentum and Trajectory has been maintained 1st Half we could
project to 27.00.

Barclays Bank where talk of a Special Dividend has ignited the Price,
traded a 67.50-70.00 range and closed 2.96% firmer at 69.50 and traded
a 67.50-70.00 range and 250,600 shares worth 17.48m. This Closing
Level is a 2 Year High.

KCB shaved off 5 cents to close at 17.95 and traded a 17.80-18.10
range and 367,000 shares.
COOP Bank rallied 1.3728% to close at 14.60 and traded a 14.30-15.00
range and 1.174m shares worth 17.167m. COOP is less than 10% off its
all Time Closing Highs.
Stanchart firmed a further 1.28% to close at 238.00 which is a 3 and
Half Year Closing High. Stanchart traded 4,600 shares. Sellers are
entirely absent.

CFC StanBic firmed 1.2% to close at 84.50 and traded 13,100 shares.
DTB rallied 2.232% to close at 91.50 and traded 84,200 shares worth 7.743m.
HFCK was unchanged at 21.25 and traded 75,600 shares.
NBK rallied 4.64% to close at 39.50 and traded 74,400 shares.
NIC was unchanged at 39.00 and traded 21,500 shares.

Centum was unchanged at 22.50 and traded 258,500 shares.

Kenya Re rose 0.8712% to close at 11.45 and traded an 11.40-11.65
range and 349,400 shares.
Jubilee was low ticked to close at 163.00 on 300 shares.
PanAfric did not trade.

Olympia Capital was unchanged at 7.40.

EABL was the 4th most active Counter closing unchanged at 181.00 and
traded a 181.00-182.00 range and 166,100 shares worth 30.067m. This is
a 22 Month Closing High.

Mumias Sugar firmed 0.4% to close at 12.60 and traded 696,100 shares.

KenGen reversed 2.53125% to close at 17.35 and traded a 17.20-17.55
range and 122,000 shares. KenGen has moved about 2.5% higher during
the week.
KPLC eased 0.5% to close at 198.00 and traded 30,200 shares.
Cables rallied 7.38% to close at 21.75 and traded 14,100 shares.

KenolKobil retreated 0.9108% to close at 10.80 and traded 314,300 shares.
Total was unchanged at 29.25 and traded 13,500 shares.

Bamburi Cement rose 0.5% to close at 201.00 on just 400 shares.
ARM traded 4,900 shares and closed 0.7% better at 143.00, which is a
shilling off its all time closing High.
Portland was unchanged at 115.00 and traded 3,600 shares.

BAT firmed 0.44% to close at 230.00 and traded 1,300 shares. There is
hardly any Supply.
BOC Kenya traded 100 shares at 142.00.
Carbacid eased 1.3% to close at 151.00 and traded 5,400 shares.
Crown Berger traded 12,000 shares at 32.50 +0.78%.
Eveready was unchanged at 3.90.
Sameer was unchanged at 8.50.
Unga closed lower at 11.85 and traded 23,400 shares.