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Macro Thoughts

Euro had gotten way ahead of itself.

Home Thoughts

This Morning The Little One had gotten a little cranky and to deflect
her I asked her who her favourite singer was.And She tells me Akon.
There is a Song in which he repeats NANANANA and she is convinced he
is singing Hannah Nah Nah and hence the Song is for her and Who am I
or anyone else to disavow her of that Notion. Previously, when he was
meant to come to Nairobi, she had shown a very keen interest in his
whereabouts and where he might stay.I did not tell her yet that I have
a Friend in Kinshasa who is Akon's very good Friend and if I can swing
it, I will swing a big surprise.

I said

Look If Mr. Akon wants to come by and call on you, he better wear a
Suit and be on his best Behaviour.

Anyway How will Ayush feel? Ayush being a Toddler in her Kindergarten.

And we left each other this Morning, thinking our Thoughts.

Mr. Obama won a surprisingly easy victory in 2008, carrying 53% of the
popular vote and 365 electoral votes – along with Bill Clinton in
1996, the biggest Democratic presidential win since Lyndon Johnson’s
1964 landslide.

Quinnipiac University today released a national poll of 2,181
registered voters, almost twice the size of most national polls. (It
has a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points.) It showed President
Obama’s net job approval rating at its lowest point ever – 44%
approve, 48% disapprove.In July 2009, Quinnipiac’s national poll had
the president with 57% approve, 33% disapprove.The decline in Mr.
Obama’s support over the past year has been across the-board, with the
largest decreases being among whites, older voters, political
independents and men.

On Election Day 2008, much was made of the increased turnout that Mr.
Obama inspired among young voters and African-Americans, and to be
sure that fattened his margin. But he won the White House because, the
exit polling showed, he got 49% of men, 43% of whites and 52% of
independents. Each of these three groups individually makes up a
larger share of the electorate than blacks and young people combined.

In July 2009, President Obama had actually grown that support so that
he was getting a thumbs-up job approval from 54% of men, 51% of whites
and 52% of independents.But today, the numbers for those three groups
show just how far he has fallen. He gets a positive job approval from
just 37% of whites, 38% of independents and 39% of men – a roughly 30%
drop in all three groups in his support.

Conclusions

The Tape is Your Telescope and The Tape reads very soft.

“Sometimes I get these bad dreams,” said Ahmed Uleh, his eyes hidden
behind shiny aviator sunglasses. “Like they are trying to cut off my
head.”

He arrived here in Uganda’s capital, Kampala, last year, joining tens
of thousands of other Somalis who have fled decades of violence back
home, to come live in a country diplomats and United Nations officials
call a refugee’s paradise.

Now that paradise is under threat. Since the attacks, the military and
police presence has heightened, some travelers from the Horn of Africa
have been turned away at borders and changes to asylum protocol have
put Somalis like Mr. Uleh on edge.

A Somali girl walked home from school with her Ugandan classmates.
Somalis have built a flourishing community that many here call Little
Mogadishu.

Conclusions

This was surely an intended Consequence of Al Shabaab's, to pressurise
their Diaspora Populations living in African Cities.

A painting by a graffiti artist was among the official gifts to Barack
Obama from David Cameron on his first trip to Washington as prime
minister.The work, Twenty First Century City, is by Ben Eine, said to
be one of the PM's wife Samantha's favourite artists.
The 39-year-old artist recently sprayed the entire alphabet on shop
shutters in a London street.Mr Obama continued the art theme by
presenting the Camerons with a signed lithograph by pop artist Ed
Ruscha.

U.S. politicians may dream of one day sinking into the presidential
bed aboard Air Force One. David Cameron, returning last night from his
first trip to the U.S. as British prime minister, took a
business-class seat on board a scheduled British Airways flight.

Cameron, trying to cut Britain’s deficit, its largest since World War
II, is scaling back on the chartered jets his predecessors used for
overseas travel and told his staff to book him on regular flights.
Yesterday he traveled to New York from Washington on Amtrak’s Acela
train.

“We have got a lot of money to save,” the prime minister told ABC News
July 20. “We’ve got a very big budget deficit, so we can’t go spending
money on executive planes, sadly.”

Conclusions

Liked him when I met him and frankly, he has not put a Foot wrong.

US equities tumbled into negative territory and the yield on two-year
Treasury notes fell to a record low after Ben Bernanke, the Federal
Reserve chairman, acknowledged an “unusually uncertain” economic
outlook.The Fed chief told Congress that the central bank “continues
to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant
exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended
period.“He added that financial conditions in light of European debt
concerns “have become less supportive of economic growth in recent
months.”Against that backdrop, Mr Bernanke said policy makers “remain
prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return
to full utilisation of our nation’s productive potential in a context
of price stability.”

Treasuries are seeing demand, with yields of the two-year note, at
0.56 per cent, its historic low. The 10-year yield is down 6 basis
points at 2.87 per cent, with traders confident that the Fed will
resort to more QE, should the economy warrant further support in the
coming months.

Conclusions

Hardly a Ringing Endorsement.

3-Month Bill*    0/32    0.157
6-Month Bill*    -0/32    0.193
1-Year Note*    -0/32    0.242
2-Year Note*    2/32    0.560
3-Year Note*    3/32    0.904
5-Year Note*    8/32    1.644
7-Year Note*    13/32    2.314
10-Year Note*    21/32    2.882
30-Year Bond*    1 21/32    3.893

2 Year at a Record Low.

Investors' recent romance with the euro may just be a summer fling.

Before taking a midafternoon slide Wednesday, the euro had advanced
more than 9% on the dollar since June 7, climbing to $1.30 this week
from a four-year low of just under $1.19.

Conclusions

You are not wrong. We had massive Short Positioning in the Euro and a
Squeeze until the Pips Squeaked. And then Bernanke started talking
down the US. I think this Dead Cat Bounce has run its course.
Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

Euro 1.2770
Pound 1.5178
Dollar Index 83.18
Aussie 0.8753
Rand 7.5510
South Korean 1206.20

The euro fell to $1.2764, after being above $1.28 before Bernanke's
remarks and from $1.2886 late Tuesday. Earlier this week, the single
currency was unable to extend a push above the $1.30 level against the
dollar.

Dow Industrials, down 109.43 points, or 1.07% to 10120.53

Conclusions

Bernanke Blues.

Go-Go Boots, White Gloves and Legroom: What Airlines Can Learn From the Past.

A study by the Institute of Leadership and Management has revealed
that 40pc of workers do not come back to the office feeling more
relaxed, with 90pc worried they will return to a deluge of emails. A
third of staff work while away on annual leave to try to stay ahead of
their heavy workloads, the study of 2,500 managers found.

Gold futures settled virtually unchanged Wednesday amid light volume.
Copper, however, rose 3%, the red metal's biggest one-day increase
since mid-June.

Last Price    3.0870
Contract High    33.112
Contract Low    1.56

Conclusions

Copper is all about China.

That is to say we used to pay for borrowing money from the bank –
pledging gold as collateral. Now we get paid for borrowing money from
the bank – pledging gold as collateral. We wonder why.

Among them, a clear deviation in the shape of the gold forward curve,
in part linked to what seems on the surface a totally seized up and
dysfunctional gold leasing market.Lease rates as they stand now are
negative — something that’s almost unprecedented in recent history. At
least judging by the below chart:

The problem is: the ‘total’ picture of stocks is actually made up of
two types of inventory. Gold that is registered and gold that is
eligible. It just so happens that only  ‘registered gold’ is available
for delivery against futures, while ‘eligible gold’ is simply that
being stored at the Comex by its owners.

And when those two categories are broken down, a very different
picture begins to emerge.

First, Comex’s registered holdings:

Conclusions

Negative Rates are not entirely unusual. I have paid negative rates
for CTD Bonds in Italy and Japan. It strikes me that we might be
reaching a Tipping Point and a small Perturbation might result in Lent
Gold being pulled and that would seriously squeeze the Price.
Aly-Khan Satchu www.rich.co.ke

Cocoa -1.53%
Coffee Front Month -3.45% Rest of the Curve -0.25%
Sugar +1.48%

The fastest economic growth in 15 years, a currency that has doubled
against the U.S. dollar since 2003 and higher disposable income are
encouraging Brazilians to purchase luxury goods in New York. At the
Prada store in SoHo, the Italian retailer has at least three
Portuguese-speaking sales representatives to cater to Brazilian
visitors. David Wasserman, co-owner of Stereo Exchange in Manhattan,
said demand from Brazilians is rising, including the sale of a
$100,000 home theater system this month to a customer from Sao Paulo.

“Brazil has really hit my radar screen,” Wasserman said.

In the country of more than 193 million people, the number of
billionaires has doubled since 2000 to 18 and Brazil now has more than
any nation in Latin America, according to Forbes magazine. The number
of millionaires in Brazil jumped 19 percent to 126,882 from 2008 to
2009, according to Boston Consulting Group data. That ranks Brazil as
17th among markets with the highest number of households having a net
worth of $1 million.

The real rallied 100 percent against the dollar since President Luiz
Inacio Lula  da Silva took office in January 2003 and jumped 33
percent in 2009, the best-performing currency in the world, helped by
revenue from exports  of commodities such as coffee and soybeans and
demand for the nation’s stocks and bonds. The currency is down 1.7
percent this year after the government started a tax on foreigners’
purchases of stocks and bonds in a bid to curb its gains.

First quarter economic growth of 9 percent, the fastest since 1995,
was driven by consumer spending, as retail sales climbed 15.7 percent
in March from a year earlier, the most since at least 2001. Gross
domestic product will expand 7.2 percent in 2010, the quickest pace in
more than two decades, according to a central bank survey of about 100
economists published July 19.

Gross disposable income in Brazil advanced 54.3 percent from the time
Lula, 64, took office through the first half of 2010, the national
statistics agency said in an e-mailed statement July 16.

More than 5.22 million jobs have been created in Brazil since December
2006, pushing the unemployment rate down to 7.5 percent in May from
8.4 percent. Average monthly wages have risen 29 percent, excluding
inflation, to 821 reais ($463) under Lula, according to the Labor
ministry.

Demand is so strong for travel to New York that American Airlines is
adding 11 flights a week between the U.S. and Brazil beginning Nov.
18, the Fort Worth, Texas-based air carrier said in a June 24
statement.

Conclusions

On a Tangential Point, the DRC should be Africa's Brazil.

Value27,833.52   
Change483.910    
% Change1.769

Conclusions

Crosses into Positive Territory for 2010 Yesterday.

Value25,002.00   
Change185.170    
% Change0.746

Conclusions

I expect a Probe Higher.

Value5,967.53   
Change53.310    
% Change0.901

Conclusions

Mubarak Illness Political Risk tapering the Bulls' Enthusiasm.

Value4,953.61   
Change30.440    
% Change0.618

Conclusions

Lowest Beta and best performing Stock Index over a 3 Year Period Bar None.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it’s in exclusive talks with Vitol Group
and Helios Investment Partners LLP over its planned sale of interests
in 19 African retail and distribution units.

“Under the terms of the proposed deal, which would see the Shell brand
and products remain in each country, Vitol and Helios would become the
majority shareholders in the businesses, with Shell retaining a
shareholding,” Shell Oil Products said in an e-mailed statement today.

Shell said in April it’s reviewing its downstream businesses in 21
African countries and other regions to focus on fewer, larger markets.
The businesses under review in Africa are profitable, Shell said at
the time. The countries include Morocco, Egypt, Ghana, Togo, Kenya,
Uganda, Tanzania, Botswana and Namibia among others.

“We’re talking about 1,350 retail sites and about 2,000 staff
members,” Dennis Matsane, a spokesman for Shell, said by mobile phone
in Johannesburg today, declining to disclose the potential deal value.
Shell’s fuels, lubricants, refining and liquefied petroleum gas
businesses in South Africa are not part of the deal, according to the
statement.

A Kota reliquary figure from the Congo River, arts of central Africa
exhibition at the Musée du Quai Branly. Photograph: Vincent
Everarts/EPA

Conclusions

One Night when I was staying in the Grand Hotel in Kinshasa this Year,
a Biblical Storm broke over the Congo River. It was extraordinary and
elemental and my Bedroom shook all night.

Police had a difficult time stopping ‘Yes’ supporters from disrupting
a ‘No’ rally at Suswa in Narok District on Wednesday.

Police officers were forced to create a buffer zone between the two
groups, with ‘Yes’ supporters, led by nominated councillor Lydiah
Ntimama vowing that the ‘No’ team, led to the meeting by Higher
Education minister William Ruto and retired President Moi, will not
have their meeting at the venue.

“Tell Moi and Ruto to keep off our land, it is a sacred shrine and we
won’t allow anybody to desecrate it,” a charged Ms Ntimama told area
police officer Isaac Odumbe.

Several lorry-loads of police officers were poured in the area to
ensure there was no confrontation. But there was a near-stampede when
Mr Moi arrived shortly after 1pm. ‘Yes’ supporters, who had been
watching the proceedings from a distance, charged towards the dais
waving green scarves and chanting slogans.

Police moved quickly and stopped the hecklers, who regrouped and waved
placards. “Moi failed to give us a constitution for 24 years” and “Who
grabbed Mau?” read some of the placards.

Conclusions

Its going One way and it is the right way for the Bourse.

The interest rate on Kenya’s second 25-year Treasury bond auction fell
to 9.8 percent from 10.5 percent during the first auction last month,
the Central Bank of Kenya said in a statement in the Nairobi-based
Daily Nation.

Value75.59   
Change-0.510    
% Change-0.670

Conclusions

Traded a little circumspect yesterday. Might see thin markets ahead of
August 4 but I expect significant Upside Traction off the back of a
Yes Vote.

Safaricom says it is going to leverage on knowledge of the local
market to ward off competition from other service providers.Safaricom
Chief Executive Officer Michael Joseph on Wednesday acknowledged
increasing competition in the market but said they are not going to be
drawn into vicious marketing gimmicks to retain their lead.His
sentiments come barely three weeks after new entrant Bharti vowed to
become the leading operator within the next three years.

“We can’t pretend that we don’t have a new offering coming in from
Bharti very soon. But we have withstood the two companies that have
come before them promising to eat our lunch and never did,” Mr Joseph
said.

He added that Safaricom was in a unique position to maintain a
sizeable share of the market.

“Of course, our 78 percent market share by SIM numbers will decline;
it is a mathematical certainty. What is important for us is to
maintain our market share by revenue which is more important,” he
said.

In its 2009 financial year, Safaricom’s revenues grew by 19.1 percent
to Sh83.9 billion from a previous Sh70.4 billion. The growth was
mainly driven by a 137.6 percent jump in data revenues as it looks to
reduce its dependency on voice revenue alone.

Bharti has announced plans to pump Sh12 billion in a bid to push the
Airtel brand to the rural areas signaling a battle based on pricing
for subscribers.Airtel will be looking to increase its market share by
focusing on rural areas and lowering communication costs.

One way Safaricom will look to maintain its lead in the market will be
by capitalising on its flagship money transfer service, M-Pesa.Since
its introduction three years ago the service has moved Sh300 billion.
Some utility companies have also teamed up with the service to offer
convenience in paying bills.

Conclusions

“We can’t pretend that we don’t have a new offering coming in from
Bharti very soon. But we have withstood the two companies that have
come before them promising to eat our lunch and never did,” Mr Joseph
said.

Safaricom's Chief Executive Officer, Michael Joseph, said: “We take
this opportunity to laud Huawei Technologies for taking the leadership
to formally launch the first Android phone in Kenya. Safaricom and
Huawei have been collaborating for several years now and this joint
initiative is an example of cooperation between the most innovative
companies in the fields; Safaricom is the Kenyan telecommunication
arena. Safaricom is in the middle of revolutionising its use of the
Internet to change people's lives and Huawei is an important partner
to the end.”

An Interview with the CEO Michael Joseph RICH TV
http://j.mp/81lKEb

Kenya recorded a balance of payments surplus of $524 million in the
year to March 2010 from a deficit of $698 million a year previous, the
central bank said in its latest monthly economic review.

The current account deficit shrank to $1.072 billion in the twelve
months to March from a deficit of $2.155 billion a year earlier.

Domestic credit grew by 23.2 percent in the year to April, compared
with growth of 11.2 percent a year earlier. Private sector credit
increased to 17.4 percent, from 14.5 percent
previously.

The average interbank rate rose to 2.46 percent in April from 2.21
percent in March.

The interest rate spread widened to 10.09 percent in April from 10.06
percent a month earlier. The average deposit rate stood at 4.49
percent from 4.74 percent in March, while lending rates were at 14.58
percent from 14.80.

Commercial banks' aggregate balance sheet grew by 21.4 percent to
1,488.5 billion shillings ($18.18 billion) in April. In the same
month, gross loans and advances grew to 799.5 billion shillings from
698.2 billion shillings a year before.

In the first 10 months of the 2009/10 (July-June) fiscal year, the
budget deficit rose to 106.3 billion shillings , or 4.2 percent of
gross domestic product (GDP) on a commitment
basis, within the government's ceiling of 6.2 percent of GDP.

Kenya's public debt stood at 1,191 billion shillings  -- or 25.9
percent of GDP -- in April, up 137.4 percent from 1,053.7 billion
shillings in the same period a year previous.

The Bourse traded thin today and might hunker down some more ahead of
August 4th. The Optimal Outcome for the Bourse remains a convincing
Yes Vote and on balance I expect such an Outcome. I feel this will be
the Catalyst for a Feel Good Factor [Both Local and International]
which could translate into a further rally into the close of the Year
in the same magnitude as we have witnessed so far +29.96% This Year.

The NASI eked out an 0.01 point gain to close at 95.88.
The NSE20 rebounded 15.92 points to close at 4345.86.
Market cap was 1.118679 Trillion versus 1.118606 Trillion.
Equity Turnover slid to 155.942m versus 234.554m last time.

Sasini Tea traded 164,800 shares and closed at 13.55.
Kakuzi traded 1,100 shares to close at 72.50.

SAFARICOM

shares volume     3,946,100
total turnover      22,537,496
avg price     5.71 Closing Price 5.70 Unchanged
high price     5.80
low price     5.60
last price     5.70

Conclusions

A Curious 2 Day Swoon now ended. Safaricom was the most active Counter
and was trading at 5.75 into the close. They remain in Pole Position
and their Ability to work in their Landscape unmatched. I dont see
Airtel as a big threat here in Nairobi simply because taking on
Safaricom Head to Head is hardly 'low hanging Fruit.' There is Low
Hanging Fruit elsewhere in their African Franchise and it makes sense
to look at Return on Capital, I would venture.

TPS Serena has announced the Rights Issue Timetable and edged 50 cents
higher to close at 59.50 and traded a 58.00-60.00 range and 52,800
shares. TPS Serena has returned 63.685% ex Dividends over 12 months
and this is a 2 Year Closing High.

TPS Serena Rights Issue Details and share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/5Ve4gj

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          59.00
Total Shares Issued:          123,508,864
Market Capitalization:        7,287M
EPS:            3.60
PE:                16.389

ScanGroup rallied 4.795% to close at 38.25 and traded 44,000 shares. A
Neutral Price is 40.00 and we are headed there.

CMC Holdings traded 3rd overall. CMC bounced 1.966% to close at 12.95
and traded a 12.60-13.00 range. CMC Holdings traded 948,800 shares
[0.1628% of its shares] worth 12.297m.
CarGen traded 500 shares at an unchanged 48.50.

Kenya Airways was unchanged at 46.25 and traded a 46.00-47.00 range
and 22,400 shares. This is a Basing Pattern at this Price.

Access Kenya fell 4.5% to close at 19.10 and traded 53,800 shares.

Nation eased 0.7% to close at 142.00 and traded 2,800 shares.
Standard traded 3,600 shares at 37.00

Standard Chartered rallied 1.646% to close at 247.00 and traded a
session High 250.00 +2.88% into the Finish Line. Standard Chartered
traded 4th overall at the Bourse with 41,300 shares worth 10.23m
changing hands. Standard Chartered trades on a Trailing PE of 14.482
and a Running Dividend of 4.858%. Standard Chartered's shares are
typically the tightest held of the Big Caps and shares are currently
trading cum Rights and Few Folks are willing to cede their Rights,
keeping the Price Firm. 257.00 is the all time High posted on 12 Jan
2007 and we are now very close to taking that out.

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/1MoR3I

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          243.00
Total Shares Issued:          271,967,808
Market Capitalization:        66,088M
EPS:            16.78
PE:                14.482

Barclays Bank eased back 0.72% to close at 68.50 and traded a
67.50-69.00 range and 150,600 shares. Sellers have camped at 70.00
after a very strong rebound, which was further spiced by Talk of a
Special Dividend.
KCB was unchanged at 17.75 and traded a 17.70-17.95 range and 460,700
shares. I expect a pick up once the Rights Issue Data is published and
confirms a strong Majority Take up of what is the biggest Rights Issue
ever undertaken in the Region, near enough $200m. The Draw Down was
preemptive ahead of the Rights and looks as if it nearing completion.
COOP Bank rallied 10 cents to close at 14.75 and traded a 14.65-15.00
range and 457,900 shares. COOP Bank posted a string of New All Time
Highs above 15.00 before retracing but that correction has now
completed and the Price targets 15.00 which is the Pivot.
Equity Bank retreated 1.05% to close at 23.50 and traded a 23.00-24.00
range and 301,300 shares. The Half year Results +46% Pre Tax confirmed
the Bounce seen in the 1st Quarter was following through and had
traction.

CFC StanBic was unchanged at 85.00 and traded an 85.00-86.00 range and
92,900 shares worth 7.900m. They have called a Special EGM [I believe]
to confirm the hiving off of the Insurance Businesses and are giving
their Investors a share in that. Buyers remain keen to participate in
the unlocking of that Value. CFC StanBic has bounced more than 100%
since 31st March.

CFC StanBic share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/dqreug

HFCK retreated 2.33% to close at 21.00 and traded 145,600 shares.
Someone was showing a Block of 1m shares for sale above the Market.
DTB traded 6,900 shares at 89.00 -1.66%.
NBK was unchanged at 39.25 and traded 11,000 shares.
NIC was unchanged at 39.50 and traded 18,900 shares.

Centum retreated 1.524% to close at 19.35 and traded an 18.80-19.65
range and 59,700 shares.

Kenya Re firmed 0.44% to close at 11.35 and traded an 11.25-11.50
range and 237,800 shares.
Jubilee eased 0.61% to close at 163.00 and traded 1,200 shares.
PanAfric did not trade.

Olympia Capital closed lower at 7.30.

KenolKobil which has been caught in the KPRL's crosshairs bounced 1.5%
to close at 10.20. They released a Press Statement yesterday
confirming their Product had been released. KenolKobil traded 454,700
shares worth 4.637m.
Total was unchanged at 29.25 and traded 2,700 shares.

BAT firmed 1.3% to close at 234.00 and traded 7,300 shares. BAT has
returned 44.262% over a 12 month Period and this a Three and a Half
Year closing High.

BAT share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/aJsT6n

KPLC closed a shilling easier at 194.00 and traded 55,100 shares. It
has retreated from just over 200.00 ahead of the GOK Preference Shares
Conversion Ratio [and subsequent Dilution] announcement.
KenGen retreated 0.58% to close at 17.00 and traded a 17.00-17.10
range and 193,200 shares.
Cables closed 2.54% better at 20.25 and traded 172,800 shares.

Mumias Sugar was the 2nd most actively Counter. Mumias traded a
12.55-12.65 range and shaved off 0.4% to close at 12.55 with 1.060m
shares worth 13.323m changing hands.

Sameer bounced 5% to close at 8.40 and traded 48,300 shares.

EABL was unchanged at 180.00 and traded 182.00 +1.11% into the close
with 14,900 shares traded.

Bamburi Cement was unchanged at 198.00 and traded just 1,800 shares.
ARM traded 7,000 shares at 143.00 +0.7%. 145.00 is the all time Closing High.
Portland firmed 1.74% to close at 117.00 and traded 4,900 shares.

BOC Kenya traded a 1,000 shares at 142.00 unchanged.
Carbacid traded 30,000 shares all at an unchanged 160.00
Crown Berger traded 2,000 shares at 32.00 -1.54%
Eveready closed at 3.85 -1.28% on 83,200 shares.
Unga fell 5.88% to close at 12.00 and traded 12,600 shares.