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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

Macro Thoughts

Keeping a Keen Eye on the Breakfast Commodities. Sugar Coffee Tea
Cocoa. I think Cocoa is in the Eye of the Storm and that if Armajaro
can warehouse his $1b of Cocoa for a meaningful period, we are set to
squeeze a lot higher.

Euro rally to peter out.

Home Thoughts

Hannah and I continued our conversation from yesterday Morning.

Dad 'Look Hannah if Akon turns up looking scruffy singing his NANANA I
am not going to be happy.'

Hannah 'Actually In fact [She is like an expert Sommelier with her
words testing the Language savouring it like a Fine Wine] - [Her
latest words along with You are very embarrassing which means BAD] I
like the way he dresses.'

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton joined Asia’s biggest security
forum in Hanoi today as the U.S. strengthened defense ties across a
region where China’s expanding military reach has triggered
unease.Clinton yesterday discussed military cooperation with Vietnam
and Defense Secretary Robert Gates restored ties with Indonesia’s
special forces after a 12-year gap. A day earlier, the two officials
affirmed U.S. support for South Korea in Seoul ahead of joint naval
drills that China criticized.

Clinton is set to meet China’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi in Hanoi,
where both are attending the 27-member Asean Regional Forum. China
considers the entire South China Sea as its own, dismissing rival
claims, and is building a blue-water fleet to project power beyond its
own borders.

“China’s assertiveness has caused anxieties in the region,” Carlyle A.
Thayer, professor of politics at the Australian Defense Force Academy
in Canberra, said by phone. Countries around Asia “are quite happy the
U.S. is doing the heavy lifting,” he said.

Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said two days
ago that the inability to speak directly with Chinese military leaders
was a cause for concern.

“I’ve moved from being curious about what they’re doing to being
concerned about what they’re doing,” Mullen told U.S. troops in South
Korea. “I see a fairly significant investment in high-end equipment,
satellites, ships, anti-ship missiles, high-end aircraft.”

The South China Sea, stretching from Singapore to the Strait of
Taiwan, is an “area of growing concern,” Gates said in Singapore last
month. Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP Plc are among companies that have
halted projects in the sea because of China’s objections, according to
U.S. government agencies.

The USS George Washington and three destroyers called into South
Korean ports the same day in a show of U.S. commitment to the region.
The ships arrived ahead of planned military maneuvers off South
Korea’s east that start July 25.

“The U.S. is very important to the whole Asia-Pacific,” Thai Foreign
Minister Kasit Piromya told reporters in Hanoi. “Their presence here
with the Seventh fleet guarantees peace and security and the safety of
sea lanes.”

Conclusions

Neither the US or China appear as if they will back down and hence
this could ratchet higher.

"What we're trying to do is make it clear to the Iranians that there's
a cost to continuing down this road," said one Obama administration
aide deeply involved in the sanctions effort. "It sharpens the choice
for these guys. One way to relieve the pressure is to make a different
[nuclear] policy choice."

And indeed, in recent days BP PLC has cut some sales of jet fuel to
Iran's national airline, and Lloyd's of London has declined to insure
shipments of petroleum products to Iran. In addition, the engineering
arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, one specific target of the
new U.N. sanctions, announced that it was withdrawing from projects in
a big Iranian natural-gas field.

Conclusions

Your Faith in Sanctions is a little too bright eyed and Bushy Tailed.
I think it has been proven in most cases and Iran with its long
Internalised History of Persecution [Shiism and the c20th] is surely
set to see growing support for the Regime at a time when its back is
seen to be against the Wall. It would be interesting to test
empirically the Popularity within Iran for the Nuclear Push. I am
certain it would be a resounding Majority. Sanctions is a very Blunt
Instrument with which to try and climb this Wall.
Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

Euro 1.2875
Pound 1.5277
Dollar Index 82.65
Aussie 0.8920 10 week High
Rand 7.3880 - Muscular Move higher in the Rand on no Rate Hike
Real 1.7575

Conclusions

"While the euro may rise further near-term on the impression that most
banks have probably passed, this factor may return to undermine the
euro if the credibility of the tests cannot be proved," said Jane
Foley, research director at Forex.com. "Medium-term, the potential
headwinds facing the euro zone are such that we remain unconvinced
that the euro's fortunes have turned versus the U.S. dollar. "

Strong Move Higher in the Higher Beta Currencies like the Rand and the Aussie.

The Dow Industrials surged 201.77 points, or 1.99% to 10322.30. The
Nasdaq Composite gained 58.56 points, or 2.68% to 2245.89. The S&P 500
jumped 24.08 points, or 2.25% to 1093.67. Asia is following through
with the Nikkei +1.8%.

Conclusions

Strong Bounce

Jewels that King Edward VIII gave the woman for whom he renounced the
U.K. throne will be offered in a London sale that may fetch as much as
$5 million.The King abdicated in 1936 to become the Duke of Windsor
and marry U.S. divorcee Wallis Simpson. The 20 pieces that previously
belonged to her are to be sold by Sotheby’s on Nov. 30 with a formal
estimate of about 3 million pounds.

“The offering comprises incomparable examples of the genius of Cartier
in collaboration with the Windsors,” said David Bennett, Chairman of
Sotheby’s Jewelry in Europe and the Middle East. “The inscriptions
tell the story of perhaps the greatest love story of the 20th
century.”

Eleven Cartier pieces are included in the new sale. Among these is an
onyx-and-diamond bracelet designed, with the Duke’s encouragement, in
the form of a panther by Jeanne Toussaint for Cartier in 1952. This is
expected to sell for between 1 million pounds and 1.5 million pounds,
as is a flamingo-shaped brooch by Toussaint that the Duchess bought in
1940.

An onyx and diamond panther bracelet (1952) by Cartier. The item is
expected to fetch between 1 million pounds and 1.5 million pounds at
Sotheby's Nov. 30 auction in London of jewels formerly owned by the
Duchess of Windsor. Source: Sotheby's via Bloomberg

A ruby, sapphire, emerald, citrine and diamond flamingo brooch
designed by Jeanne Toussaint for Cartier. The item is expected to sell
for at least 1 million pounds at Sotheby's Nov. 30 auction in London
of jewels owned by the Duchess of Windsor. Source: Sotheby's via
Bloomberg

“I want a chef who enjoys cooking,” Koffmann tells me. “Every morning
when you go into the kitchen, it’s best: the noise, the smell, looking
at the beautiful fish, so fresh, so beautiful you want to give them a
kiss. You go to a lot of parties but I have two parties a day: lunch
and dinner.”

“You and I are like old Camembert,” Koffmann says. “The only thing
that can make us attractive is the packaging. Sometimes you think,
‘I’m going to be the only one to live forever,’ but you’re not and you
have to try to enjoy it all.

Conclusions

With Koffmann, I remember Howard Marks Esquire. Hello Howard. Howard
is a Broker Par Excellence and Looked after me from 1994 and the Old
Tante Claire was a Place both of us enjoyed holing ourselves in,
especially when we had landed a Coup in the Interest Futures Markets,
as we did once in a While.

Since China's government started cracking down on its overheating
property market in mid-April, global prices for aluminum are down 18%;
for copper, 13%; for lead, 19%; and for nickel, 27%, though prices for
all of those metals have stabilized somewhat in recent weeks. Steel
prices in China are down about 15% over the period.

Conclusions

You Know what is going on in China and You know most things in the
Commodity Markets.

Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
http://j.mp/5DNHhI

Crude-oil futures soared nearly 4% Thursday. Crude oil for September
delivery gained $2.74, or 3.6%, to $79.30 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. That was oil's highest price in nearly one month.

Cocoa +0.2%
Coffee Front Month Down -3.45% Further out +2.69%

Last Price    18.30
Contract High    22.78
Contract Low    11.79

Conclusions

It based out some time ago.

The allure of the pearl has captivated the Queen of Sheba, Elizabeth I
and Catherine the Great, all of whom are said to have worn Bahraini
pearls. Their fabulous luster is to do with the combination of the
sea's freshwater springs that give the island kingdom its name --
Bahrain means "two seas" in Arabic -- and its warm, shallow, highly
saline water. Whatever rare alchemy creates these lustrous objects,
then as now Bahraini pearls are widely believed to be the best in the
world.

South Africa's economy is one percent higher than it would have been
without the spending and infrastructure development that went into
hosting the soccer World Cup, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said on
Thursday.

The government has previously said hosting the tournament that ended
earlier this month would add 0.5 percentage points to annual growth
this year.

Conclusions

I thought he was too cautious when he said 0.4% previously.

Value28,274.03   
Change440.510    
% Change1.583

Conclusions

Pushes Higher into Positive Territory for the year.

Conclusions

Punched Higher on a Return of Risk Appetite.

Safaricom said on Thursday its chief executive, Michael Joseph, would
step down in November and be replaced by Bob Collymore.

Collymore, 52, has served in various capacities for Vodafone's
operations in Africa, and is currently Chief Officer for Corporate
Affairs for South Africa's Vodacom. He has been on Safaricom's board
for four years.Joseph told Reuters in a March interview he planned to
retire before the end of 2010. Collymore, who launched Vodafone's 3G
strategy in the Japanese business market, worked for retailer Dixons,
mobile operator O2 and BT (BT.L: Quote) in Britain before joining
Vodafone.

"Bob Collymore has been involved with Safaricom so is not a greenhorn
from another planet. I think he will surely have an intimate
understanding of the business," said Aly Khan Satchu, an independent
analyst.

During his 10 years at Safaricom, Joseph helped turn the company from
a start-up into one of the most profitable firms in the region,
building its subscriber base to more than 16 million from 17,000.

Joseph will remain on the Safaricom and Vodacom boards and will have
an advisory role with the Kenyan firm for two years.

"Safaricom under Michael Joseph has been a hot bed of innovation and
impeccable execution. I do not expect that to change," said Satchu.

Conclusions

I remember meeting Mr. Collymore at the time of the IPO so I have to
believe He has been looking at this up close and personal for quite
some time. Confirming that Michael is there for 2 Years also I feel
negates the Succession Risk. However, that is de minimis simply
because of the Depth of the Bench. Clearly the 2 day price swoon that
we saw this week was a preemptive reaction to this Announcement.

Allow me to give you My Reminscences of Michael Joseph because he is a
Totemic Figure in this part of the World and not without Good Reason.

I met Michael when I came back to settle in Nairobi 4 Years ago and I
was writing my Book 'Anyone can be rich.' And whenever, I have really
needed to speak to him, I have always turned up early at his
Functions, because even before the Cleaners show up, Michael will be
there.

Do watch this Interview I did earlier this Year RICH TV
http://j.mp/81lKEb

The remarkable Thing is The Story from Start Up in the Norfolk Towers
with 4 others and building the Business to where it is today

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:          5.70
Total Shares Issued:          40,000,000,000
Market Capitalization:        228,000M
EPS:            0.38
PE:                15.000

Look There are many things I could say. Michael saw where this was
going a Long time ago and he bet Big on the New Trends before anyone
else really understood the Scale of this new Mobile and Information
Century. He consistently made the right calls. In many ways, he
understood the Psyche of Kenyans. He Built an Ecosystem, embedded the
Brand in Peoples' Minds to the Point where People believed there Money
was safe not because of MPesa but because they believed he had it and
that was a cast iron Guarantee, in a World of Uncertainty.

And through it all he is a Gentleman, of the Old School.

No Disrespect to anyone but if You were to ask me, I would say he
would be the Optimal Candidate for 2012. Run the Country like you ran
Safaricom.

Safaricom Ltd.’s Chief Executive Officer, Michael Joseph, said he
doesnt expect his resignation, announced yesterday, to affect the
company’s share price as his departure was expected.

The company’s shares, which closed trade in Nairobi yesterday at 5.7
shillings, may rise as high as 6.8 shillings, he said in an interview
on Kenya Television Network, which is based in the city, without
giving a timeframe.

Conclusions

Actually, the Price has already had its swoon as I was noticing
earlier in the Week.

The U.S. Embassy in the Kenyan capital urged U.S. citizens to be
cautious in public areas and warned them to avoid public rallies and
demonstrations.

"Since the July 11 bombings in Uganda, for which the Somalia-based,
U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization al-Shabaab terrorist
group has claimed responsibility, there have been increased threats
against public areas across East Africa," the State Department said.

The U.S. warning follows a clash this week between Kenyan security
forces and gunmen from the Somali rebel group along the border with
Somali.Both Kenya and the al Shabaab militia were reported to be
sending reinforcements to the area, although similar border skirmishes
in the past have not escalated into wider fighting.

The Ugandan bombings were the first al Shabaab strike outside Somalia,
although there have been fears for some time in Kenya that the
violence could spill over the long and porous border between the two
countries.

The State Department also warned of the potential for civil unrest
ahead of Kenya's upcoming constitutional referendum.

"While the U.S. Embassy hopes for a peaceful August 4 constitutional
referendum with high voter turnout, it recognizes that past elections
in Kenya have been marred by violence," the State Department said.

The proposed charter is the centerpiece of a deal signed to end the
violence that followed Kenya's 2007 presidential election, which
killed at least 1,300 people, scared off investors and tourists and
sent growth rates plummeting.

Par Value:                  10/-
Closing Price:          234.00
Total Shares Issued:          100,000,000
Market Capitalization:        23,400M
EPS:            14.78
PE:                15.832

Swot Analysis 6 months to June 2010 versus June 2009
Gross Turnover 10.088b versus 9.020b
Net Turnover 6.006b versus 5.180b
PAT 1.023b versus 0.858b
EPS 10.23 versus 8.58 +19.23%
No Interim

Conclusions

Strong Results and puts the Forward PE at 11.43 on a Zero Bias 2nd
Half Extrapolation.

BAT is trading at a 3 and a Half Year High

Value76.03   
Change0.210    
% Change0.277

Regulators have allowed TPS Eastern Africa Ltd, the holding company of
the Serena Hotels, to raise additional capital.
The Nairobi Stock Exchange listed hospitality group is seeking to
raise about Sh1.2 billion through a rights issue where the current
owners will be called upon to buy additional shares at a discounted
rate.

The rights subscription price has been set Sh48 per apiece.

The application was approved by the Capital Markets Authority (CMA)
and the NSE.

The hospitality company will now issue 24.7 million new shares to be
distributed at a rate of one share for every five held.

The money raised from the issue will be complemented by long-term
borrowing to finance acquisition of 51 per cent of Upekee Lodges Ltd
by TPS (Tanzania), acquisition of the assets of Mbuzi Mawe Tented
Camp, and Mountain Village by TPS (Tanzania) and buying part of TPS
Rwanda.

The cash will also be used to help in expansion and refurbishment of
Nairobi Serena Hotel and injecting more money in Jaja Limited, a TPSEA
subsidiary used to develop tourist properties in Kenya.

Conclusions

Full Subscription expected.

TPS Serena share price data from www.rich.co.ke [Rights Schedules and
Notices here]
http://j.mp/5Ve4gj

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          59.50
Total Shares Issued:          123,508,864
Market Capitalization:        7,349M
EPS:            3.60
PE:                16.528

Conclusions

Will be fully subscribed. Riding a Rising Regional Tourism Tide.

The NASI retreated 0.32 points to close at 95.56.
The NSE20 closed down 15.94 points at 4329.92.
Market Cap was 1.117052 Trillion versus 1.118679 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was 202.766m versus 155.942m last time.

Clearly the Big News was The Departure [not exactly because he is
staying on the Board for 2 Year] of the Totemic Michael Joseph from
Safaricom announced after the market closed Yesterday. The Price had
swooned some earlier in the Week and now I am able to connect the
Dots.

Sasini Tea closed at 13.60 and traded 204,100 shares.
Rea Vipingo traded 600 shares to close at 17.20.
Kakuzi traded 5,600 shares to close at 71.50.

SAFARICOM

shares volume     3.004m
avg price     5.68 Closing Price 5.65 -0.88%
high price     5.75
low price     5.60
last price     5.65

Conclusions

Safaricom eased 0.88% to close at 5.65 as the Market digested the news
that Michael Joseph will had over to Bob Collymore in November.
Michael Joseph took Safaricom from a Start Up of 4 Employees in the
Norfolk Towers to a Company now value at just under $3b. Todays price
correction of 0.88% on the news confirms that this News had already
filtered into the Combined Intelligence that is the Market. I expect a
seamless Transition and think the News might even be cathartic for the
Price as it had been hanging over the Price for some time.

Kenya Airways edged 1.08% lower and traded 20,700 shares to close at 45.75.

Nation bounced 1.40% to close at 144.00 and traded 6,900 shares.
Standard bounced 3.3378% to close at 38.25 and traded 8,700 shares.

Access Kenya [It was good to catch up with Mr. Somen in the Lift]
traded 20 cents better to close at 19.30 with 32,200 shares traded.

TPS Serena traded 31,400 shares and closed at 59.00

CMC Holdings retreated 3.47% to close at 12.50 and traded 52,600 shares.
CarGen did not trade.

ScanGroup was low ticked to close at 36.75 and traded 8,700 shares.

KCB was the most active Counter at the Nairobi Bourse today and closed

+1.13% at 17.95 and traded a 17.70-18.00 range and 2.423m shares worth
43.566m.
As per my Calculations KCB trades at a 43% discount to its Peers,
which I believe was a Supply related move. The Rights Issue is worth
just under $200m and the biggest ever undertaken in the Region. 1st
Half witnessed a 16% rebound and confirmed an acceleration in the
Underlying earnings Curve, which will be further jump started by the
Rights Warchest. I venture this Price has probably crossed the Bottom.

Stanchart rallied 1.21% to close at 250.00 and traded a 248.00-255.00
range. 257.00 is Standard Chartered's all time closing High and was
printed on 12 of January 2007 and looks set to be tested. Standard
Chartered traded 45,400 shares worth 11.358m.
COOP Bank traded 2nd at the Bourse and shaved off 0.34% to close at
14.70. COOP Bank traded a 14.65-14.95 range and 1.447m shares worth
21.324m.
Barclays Bank rowed back 1.45% to close at 67.50 and traded 78,000 shares.
Equity Bank eased back 1.065% to close at 23.25 and traded 402,300
shares worth 9.358m.

CFC StanBic eased 0.59% to close at 84.50 and traded 107,700 shares
worth 9.154m. The Price has rallied 111.25% from End March This Year.
DTB traded 13,700 shares at 90.00 +1.12%.
HFCK eased 1.19% to close at 21.75 and traded 50,700 shares.
NBK closed 0.64% easier at 39.00 and traded 12,100 shares.
NIC eased 1.3% to close at 38.00 and traded 68,700 shares.

Centum retreated 0.7725% to close at 19.20 and traded a 19.05-19.55
range and 178,200 shares. The Ex Rights Draw Down looks as if it is
nearing completion.

Kenya Re eased 0.88% to close at 11.25 and traded 67,400 shares.
Jubilee rose 0.61% to close at 164.00 and traded 4,300 shares.
PanAfric did not trade.

Olympia Capital closed lower at 7.15.

BAT reported 1st Half 2010 +19.23% before the market Opening. BAT
traded a 229.00-245.00 range and edged 0.8533% lower to close at
232.00. BAT traded 18,700 shares worth 4.35m. There was no Interim
Dividend which might have disappointed the Dividend People, who have
camped in BAT.

EABL closed unchanged at 180.00 and traded a 180.00-182.00 range and
111,500 shares worth 20.087m.

Mumias Sugar eased 0.4% to close at 12.50 and traded a 12.30-12.60
range and 868,200 shares worth 10.86m.

KenGen eased 5 cents to close at 16.95 and traded a 16.50-17.05 range
and 203,400 shares worth 3.453m.
KPLC has lost its perch at just over 200.00 as Investors continue to
wait for the Dilution Ratios. KPLC closed unchanged at 194.00 and
traded 6,800 shares.
Cables retreated 4.1933% to close at 19.40 on light volume of 3,800 shares.

Bamburi Cement bounced 1.01% to close at 200.00 and traded 5,600 shares.
ARM rose 0.7% to close at 144.00 a shilling off its all time closing
High of 145.00. ARM traded a 144.00-145.00 range and 23,500 shares
worth 3.406m.
Portland did not trade.

BOC Kenya traded 83,600 shares worth 11.787m all at 141.00 -0.7%.
Carbacid did not trade.

KenolKobil closed at 10.15 -0.49% and traded a 9.80-10.50 range and
366,500 shares.
Total closed at 29.50 +0.85% and traded 2,900 shares.

Unga bounced 4.58% to close at 12.55 and traded 13,500 shares.

Crown Berger traded a 1,000 shares at 32.25 +0.78%.
Eveready rose 1.3% to close at 3.90 and traded 45,400 shares.
Sameer was unchanged at 8.40 and traded 36,400 shares.