www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

I thank Alishia for the Interview this Morning on CNBC. Thanks.

This Monday's Piece The Star Michael Joseph The Art of Leadership and
Succession Planning
http://bit.ly/cqRcr7

Interviews with Michael Joseph and Martin Odour-Otieno here RICH TV
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtvi.php

Macro Thoughts

As I have said previously I like the Pound and believe That Osborne's
Budget was optimal. However, I see the Euro topping out at 1.33 or
worse case 1.3380 and that will affect the Pound.

Home Thoughts

We were having some Croissants on Sunday Morning at Art Caffe and
Nishet overheard Hannah mutter under her Breath, I am going to be bad
really bad.

A huge cache of secret US military files today provides a devastating
portrait of the failing war in Afghanistan, revealing how coalition
forces have killed hundreds of civilians in unreported incidents,
Taliban attacks have soared and Nato commanders fear neighbouring
Pakistan and Iran are fuelling the insurgency.

The disclosures come from more than 90,000 records of incidents and
intelligence reports about the conflict obtained by the
whistleblowers' website Wikileaks in one of the biggest leaks in US
military history. The files, which were made available to the
Guardian, the New York Times and the German weekly Der Spiegel, give a
blow-by-blow account of the fighting over the last six years, which
has so far cost the lives of more than 320 British and more than 1,000
US troops.

Conclusions

Still making my way through the Documents.

The African Union president has criticised International Criminal
Court indictments against Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, saying
they were "undermining African solidarity and African peace and
security".

"To subject a sovereign head of state to a warrant of arrest is
undermining African solidarity and African peace and security that we
fought for for so many years," Malawian President Bingu wa Mutharika,
current head of the pan-African organisation.

Mutharika told African leaders at the opening session of AU summit in
the Ugandan capital, Kampala, to look for ways of resolving the
conflict in Sudan without the need to arrest Bashir.

He was there on the reviewing stand on Oct. 6, 1981, when the
assassins struck down his flamboyant predecessor, Anwar Sadat. Few
thought that Hosni Mubarak, an unassuming military officer, would
survive the tumult of Egypt's politics. The country was on the boil,
the assassins who took Sadat's life had been brazen beyond
imagination. They had stormed the reviewing stand on the eighth
anniversary of the October War of 1973. Lt. Khalid Islambouli, the
leader of this band of assassins, told Mr. Mubarak to get out of the
way for they had come only after "that dog."

Mr. Mubarak was spared that day, and still, three decades later, he
rules. Rumors of poor health swirl around him, and the Egypt he has
dominated for so long is a crowded, broken country. "I shot the
Pharaoh," Lt. Islambouli said, without doubt or remorse. He and his
band of plotters had no coherent plan for the seizure of power. They
would kill the defiant ruler, for them an apostate, make an example of
him, and hope that his successors would heed his fate.

Grant Mr. Mubarak his due: He has not dispatched his countrymen on
deadly expeditions and needless wars. He has kept the peace, he has
been the cop on the beat. But Egypt needed and deserved something
better, more ennobling, than a tyrant's sterile peace.

Conclusions

The Point now is surely will he have time to hand over to Gemal the
Dauphin or is this a disjunctive moment? El Baradei seems to think its
disjunctive.
Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

A COUPLE of months or so after becoming Britain’s prime minister,
David Cameron wanted a few tips from somebody who could tell him how
it felt to be responsible for, and accountable to, many millions of
people: people who expected things from him, even though in most cases
he would never shake their hands.

He turned not to a fellow head of government but to…Mark Zuckerberg,
the founder and boss of Facebook, the phenomenally successful social
network. (It announced on July 21st that it had 500m users, up from
150m at the start of 2009.) In a well-publicised online video chat
this month, the two men swapped ideas about ways for networks to help
governments. Was this just a political leader seeking a spot of help
from the private sector—or was it more like diplomacy, a comparison of
notes between the masters of two great nations?

As Facebook’s masters present it, their mission is just to make the
world more open and connected—and bring closer the “global village”
predicted in the 1960s by Marshall McLuhan, a futurologist they love.
Their claim to be accelerators has some force.

So if newspapers and tatty paperbacks can create new social and
political units, for which people toil and die, perhaps the latest
forms of communication can do likewise. In his 2006 book “Code:
Version 2.0”, a legal scholar, Lawrence Lessig noted that online
communities were transcending the limits of conventional states—and
predicted that members of these communities would find it “difficult
to stand neutral in this international space”.

Conclusions

Aly-Khan Satchu wrote:
Jul 23rd 2010 9:23 GMT

I think You are absolutely right. These Uber Platforms [Facebook,
Google and Twitter] have reformatted the Global Architecture. This
Development is very disjunctive especially where it comes to the
Relation between the State and its Citizens. The Citizens were
Lilliputians, The State Gulliver, and now the Internet is like a Net
with which to catch Gulliver. I believe it is upending the
Architecture.

Where I think Zuckerburg has made a Strategic Mistake [I feel] is not
to have taken enough Notice of His Fiduciary Duty to his Users with
respect to Privacy. With 500m Citizens, Facebook has been cavalier in
their disregard and I think it was and remains a Poor Decision.
Nevertheless Your Point is well made and We have yet to feel the real
Muscle that lies embedded in the Crowd for delivery via these
Platforms.
Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

Euro 1.2922
Pound 1.5447 - Has rallied sharply post the Osborne Budget. I am a Bull.
Dollar Index 82.46
Aussie 0.8945
Korean Won 1193.20
India Rupee 46.855
Rand 7.4105

Investors cut their bets against the euro in the past week, according
to data released Friday.
Net speculative bets, called shorts, against the euro were at 24,250
with a value of $3.9 billion in the week ended Tuesday, compared to
last week's 27,000 contracts with a value of $4.3 billion.

Euro shorts have been seriously squeezed.

Conclusions

I like Sterling best.

Conclusions

It can be very whippy but I feel it is trending towards 1.5850.

The best-performing asset this year is one that will earn you zero
interest for the next 20 years.

Zero-coupon Treasurys maturing in more than 20 years have returned 21%
this year through Thursday, the latest data available, beating out
investments from stocks to corporate bonds and gold. Zero-coupon
Treasurys maturing from 10 to 20 years have handed investors a return
of nearly 17% in the same period.

Conclusions

The US Bond Market has behaved just like the Japanese Bond Market did
in the 90s.

Dow Industrials, up 326.72 points last week, or 3.24% to 10424.62.The
DJIA has finished with weekly moves of 2% or more (up or down), in 10
of the last 12 weeks. Today it added 102.32 points, or 0.99%. Up
304.09 points, or 3.00% over the past two sessions.

Facebook users share more than 25 billion pieces of content each month
(including news stories, blog posts and photos), and the average user
creates 70 pieces of content a month. There are more than 100 million
registered Twitter users, and the Library of Congress recently
announced that it will be acquiring — and permanently storing — the
entire archive of public Twitter posts since 2006.

In a recent book, “Delete: The Virtue of Forgetting in the Digital
Age,” the cyberscholar Viktor Mayer-Schönberger cites Stacy Snyder’s
case as a reminder of the importance of “societal forgetting.” By
“erasing external memories,” he says in the book, “our society accepts
that human beings evolve over time, that we have the capacity to learn
from past experiences and adjust our behavior.” In traditional
societies, where missteps are observed but not necessarily recorded,
the limits of human memory ensure that people’s sins are eventually
forgotten. By contrast, Mayer-Schönberger notes, a society in which
everything is recorded “will forever tether us to all our past
actions, making it impossible, in practice, to escape them.” He
concludes that “without some form of forgetting, forgiving becomes a
difficult undertaking.”

Laval’s more recent pictures are dreamier and more elusive, beautiful
in a painterly way; they seem to reveal hidden worlds. My mind is
seduced into lingering in spaces between the real and the imagined. I
want to float in cool waters and forget about the heat wave in
steaming New York City.

Here’s a selection of Laval’s “Poolscapes.”

Conclusions

Dreamy.

Cocoa +1.66%
Coffee +2.15%
Sugar +0.05%

Conclusions

I remain resolutely Bullish on the Breakfast Commodity Class.

Last Price    3018
Contract High    3477
Contract Low    2410

Conclusions

I am very Bullish on Cocoa and believe a $1b of Supply has been taken
out of the Game, which is in some ways a Tipping Point.

Cocoa March 2011 Options Ladder
http://bit.ly/9Krwdc

2011-02-04    2900    CC.H11.2900C    334    +30        CC.H11.2900P    217    -22    1
2011-02-04    2950    CC.H11.2950C    308    +29        CC.H11.2950P    241    -23   
2011-02-04    3000    CC.H11.3000C    285    +27    40    CC.H11.3000P    267    -26    40
2011-02-04    3050    CC.H11.3050C    264    +25        CC.H11.3050P    295    -29   
2011-02-04    3100    CC.H11.3100C    244    +22    50    CC.H11.3100P    325    -31   
2011-02-04    3150    CC.H11.3150C    226    +21        CC.H11.3150P    356    -32   
2011-02-04    3200    CC.H11.3200C    208    +19    1    CC.H11.3200P    388    -33   
2011-02-04    3250    CC.H11.3250C    192    +18        CC.H11.3250P    422    -34   
2011-02-04    3300    CC.H11.3300C    177    +18    112    CC.H11.3300P    456    -35    35
2011-02-04    3350    CC.H11.3350C    163    +17    8    CC.H11.3350P    492    -35   
2011-02-04    3400    CC.H11.3400C    150    +16    3    CC.H11.3400P    528    -36   
2011-02-04    3450    CC.H11.3450C    138    +15        CC.H11.3450P    566    -37   
2011-02-04    3500    CC.H11.3500C    127    +14        CC.H11.3500P    604    -38   

Conclusions

Sell 2900 Puts at 217.00
Buy 3000 Calls at 285.00

Last Price    166.55
Contract High    173.85
Contract Low    131.4

Conclusions

New Contract Highs in sight.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 0.4 percent to 984.95 as of
2:56 p.m. in Singapore, extending a four-day, 3.8 percent advance.
South Korea’s Kospi index increased 0.6 percent while the Shanghai
Composite Index added 0.4 percent, heading for a sixth straight day of
gains that will be the Chinese gauge’s longest winning streak in more
than eight months. Russia’s Micex Index jumped 1.1 percent.

Conclusions

China Has plenty of Headroom.

The Tehran Stock Exchange, home of the world’s second-best performing
equity index, today begins offering derivatives based on Iranian banks
to diversify its market and attract foreign investors.

The exchange is introducing six futures contracts on two banks,
Managing Director Hassan Ghalibaf-Asl said July 23 in a telephone
interview. The contracts, based on Parsian Bank and Karafarin Bank,
will expire in two, four and six months. The exchange said it hopes to
increase the number of companies covered by futures contracts to at
least 10 by March.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 19 percent in the past 12 months,
compared with a 12 percent gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and
16 percent for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. The TSE’s benchmark index,
the TEDPIX, surged 55 percent in the first half, making it the
second-best performing broad market index, according to the World
Federation of Exchanges.

Conclusions

I am surprised The Regime has not been trumpeting their Stock Market.

Value28,424.17   
Change150.140    
% Change0.531

Conclusions

Has rallied about 15% from the Lows just before the World Cup.

Value24,450.35

Value25,312.17   
Change218.180    
% Change0.869

Conclusions

I think it has rebased out again.

Value6,246.91   
Change1.140    
% Change0.018

Conclusions

The Retracement looks overdone now.

HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Plc are in talks to buy Old
Mutual’s 52 percent holding in South Africa’s Nedbank, the Financial
Times reported in Mark Kleinman’s “In the Loop” column.

“Considerable” hurdles remain to any deal, Kleinman said, citing
people close to the transaction who weren’t named.

High-profile Kenyan investment house, Transcentury Ltd has earned a
guaranteed position of chair of the board of the newly restructured
Rift Valley Railways Investments, under a new deal struck with wealthy
Egyptian private equity firm, the Citadel Group.Rift Valley Railways
runs the 1,200-kilometre metre gauge between Mombasa and Kampala under
a 25 - year concession. The arrangement is spelt out in a new
shareholders agreement with Citadel, which has been seen by The
EastAfrican.

Hammered after months of lengthy negotiations, the agreement is
largely viewed by insiders as representing a tactical retreat by the
wealthy Egyptian equity fund to accommodate the interests of the
politically- influential local shareholders of TransCentury.

With the Egyptians having invested millions of dollars in purchasing
interests of the minority shareholders in RVR, including South African
national Roy Puffet and with both Kenya government and international
lenders displaying unwillingness to support the raid of RVR’s
shareholding register by the Egyptians, Citadel has now calculated
that a prolonged battle in a foreign land was only going to jeopardize
its long term interests and desire to control one of the most critical
logistics arteries in East Africa.

Under the new agreement, Trans-Century’s interests in RVR will now
revert to a new special purpose vehicle by the name, Safari Rail Ltd
that will hold 34 per cent of RVR shares.

The Egyptians, with a 51 per cent shareholding will be represented in
the company by another special purpose vehicle, Ambience Railway
Company Ltd.

But notwithstanding the majority position by the Egyptians in the
company, the shareholder agreement specifically stipulates that Safari
Rail Ltd shall nominate the chair of the board of RVR from its
appointed directors.

Conclusions

Politically Astute are those Citadel Folks.

Once upon a time there was a young King of Morocco, who was said to be
the seventh richest monarch in the world. King Mohammed VI ascended to
the throne in 1999, descendant of more than a 1,000 years of sultans
but, being a modern man, he drove his own car, championed women's
rights and took only one wife.

Despite his many inherited palaces, he decided, a few years into his
rule, to build yet another. For this magnificent place there was no
budget, only the royal edict to make it the most beautiful example of
Moroccan architecture in the world. It was handmade by 1,200 artisans
using the best stones, marbles, tiles, silks, satins, beads, feathers
and cedar. No one, to this day, knows how much it cost.

The lobby of the Royal Mansour.

I remember them all so, so well. Goliath, who lost his alpha position
when Mike, using his superior intelligence, learned to enhance his
dominance displays by hitting and kicking empty four-gallon tin cans
ahead of him. William, the clown, who once stole a blanket, dragged it
up the hillside, then draped it over his head and felt around him like
a child who has been blindfolded.

Is it really 50 years ago that I stepped ashore, for the first of who
knows how many hundreds of times, onto the sandy beach of Gombe Stream
Chimpanzee Reserve, now Gombe National Park? Has half a century passed
since I saw, for the first time, a wild chimpanzee feeding high in a
palm tree? It seems almost impossible to believe.

Value75.82

Conclusions

Looking like a Classic Triangle Pattern which normally presages a Big
Break one way or the Other.

Sameer Africa Ltd. reported first- half net income rose 21 percent to
58.96 million shillings, the company said in a statement published in
the Nairobi-based Daily Nation today.

Sales rose to 1.76 billion shillings from 1.55 billion, the company said.

“Turnover for six months to June 2010 was 14 percent higher compared
to the same period last year driven by growth in both domestic and
export market revenue,” it said. “Similar trends in performance are
forecast for the remainder of the year supported by marketing and
sales promotional activities.”

Sameer share price data and results here www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/dCsksT

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          8.40
Total Shares Issued:          278,342,400
Market Capitalization:        2,338M
EPS:            0.57
PE:                14.737

At the last auction, the 91-day cut-off rate fell to 1.728 percent. A
Reuters poll ahead of last week's cancelled auction forecast the yield
would edge-up fractionally to 1.738 percent.

High liquidity levels have also seen yields on longer-term government
paper come off sharply. The average yield on the reopened 25-year
Kenyan Treasury bond was 9.84 percent at auction on Wednesday, down
from 10.46 percent a month ago.

Conclusions

No Longer one way Traffic.

The Boghal-1 well in block 9 yielded some gas but not enough for
commercial exploitation, the government said last week, citing latest
tests by explorers.China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)
with its partners Africa Oil Corporation, Lion Energy and China
Petroleum Corporation (CPC), now plan to plug the well after carrying
out drill stem tests.

“If the tests done to quantify the gas had showed it was of commercial
value, Kenya would have received many applications from companies
seeking to be granted exploration blocks,” Energy permanent secretary
Patrick Nyoike said in an interview on Friday.

Conclusions

There was a great deal of Excitement and a Squeeze higher in Real
Estate Prices.

The NASI closed 0.72 points lower at 94.84.
The NSE20 fell 3.91 points to close at 4326.01.
Market Cap was 1.108666 Trillion versus 1.117052 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was 325.551m versus 202.766m.

The Chart Pattern is a Triangle and signals a sharp Break Either way.

Comments to Reuters
http://bit.ly/aboVGL

"I sense the markets will be thin until the referendum result. The
polls are showing a 'yes' majority and the market is skewed that way,"
says independent analyst Aly Khan Satchu.

Kakuzi traded a 100 shares at 78.00 +9.09%. PE is about 4.

Sasini Tea firmed 5 cents to close at 13.65 and was trading at 13.90
+2.21% session highs into the Finish. Sasini traded 33,800 shares.
Rea Vipingo traded 500 shares at 17.40 +1.16%

SAFARICOM

shares volume     4.345m
avg price     5.63 Closing Price 5.60 -0.88%
high price     5.70
low price     5.55
last price     5.65

Conclusions

Kenya Airways firmed 0.55% to close at 46.00 and traded a 46.00-46.25
range and 37,400 shares. At these Prices, Demand is 4x Supply
signalling a Price Base is at hand.

Access Kenya eased back 2.33% to close at 18.85 and traded an
18.50-20.00 range and 27,800 shares.

CMC Holdings was unchanged at 12.50 and traded 45,800 shares.
CarGen did not trade.

Nation eased 1.38% to close at 142.00 and traded 10,100 shares.
Standard Newspapers rose 1.96% to close at 39.00 on 3,400 shares.

Scangroup eased 0.68% to close at 36.50 and traded 14,500 shares.

TPS Serena was marked down 4.2375% to close at 56.50 with 3,600 shares trading.

Diamond Trust Bank was the most active Counter at the Nairobi Bourse.
DTB rallied 5.5909% to close at 94.50 and traded a 90.00-95.00 range
and 1.4371m shares [0.878% of its Shares] worth 135.952m. DTB trades
on a Trailing PE of below 12.00, is tightly managed, has a Regional
Foot print and a Low Base Effect.

Diamond Trust Bank share price data www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/4A8Khs

Par Value:                  4/-
Closing Price:          89.50
Total Shares Issued:          163,037,104
Market Capitalization:        14,592M
EPS:            7.67
PE:                11.669

KCB was the 3rd most active Counter. KCB was unchanged at 17.95 and
traded a 17.95-18.20 range and 1.652m shares worth 29.717m. KCB trades
at a 43% discount [on my Model] to its Peers and that looks egregious.
Buyers outnumber Sellers by 3-1, which is positive for the Price.

Equity Bank was unchanged at 23.25 and traded a 23.00-23.50 range and
790,100 shares worth 18.414m.
COOP Bank was unchanged at 14.70 and traded a 14.70-14.80 range and
564,900 shares worth 8.325m.

StanChart eased 1.2% to close at 247.00 and traded 8,100 shares. This
is a 3 and a Half Year Closing High and 257.00 is its all time High
posted Jan 2007.
Barclays Bank was marked down 6.67% to close at 63.00 with just 10,400
shares traded. The Pull Back was exaggerated today on low Volume.

HFCK was unchanged at 20.75 and traded a 20.50-21.00 range and 446,700
shares worth 9.363m.
CFC StanBic rowed back 3.54% to close at 82.00 and traded 8,300 shares.
NBK eased back 2.56% to close at 38.00 and traded 36,200 shares.
NIC was unchanged at 38.00 and traded 71,900 shares.

PanAfric rallied 7.083% to close at 68.00 and traded 10,100 shares.
Kenya Re firmed 0.89% to close at 12.35 and traded 193,300 shares.
Jubilee traded 2,000 shares at an unchanged 164.00.

Centum firmed 1.04% to close at 19.40 and traded a 19.30-19.55 range
and 116,400 shares worth 2.263m. Centum reacted lower when it went ex
but that correction looks over.

Olympia Capital closed higher at 7.35.

ARM was the 2nd most Active Counter at the Bourse. ARM rallied 3.475%
to close at 149.00, which is a New All Time Closing High versus a
Market that is trading at 23 Month Highs. ARM traded a 145.00-150.00
range and 266,100 shares worth 39.885m.

Athi River Mining share price data www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/4slEGv

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          144.00
Total Shares Issued:          99,055,000
Market Capitalization:        14,264M
EPS:            6.52
PE:                22.086

Bamburi Cement closed 1% lower at 198.00 on just 600 shares.
Portland traded 500 shares all at 110.00 -5.98%.

KenGen traded 0.29% firmer to close at 17.00 and traded a 17.00-17.30
range and 316,500 shares. This Area is proving Strong Support.
KPLC was marked down 2.06% to close at 190.00 and traded 4,100 shares.
Cables rose 0.26% to close at 19.45 and traded 128,100 shares.

Eveready rebounded 6.41% to close at 4.15 and traded 69,400 shares.
Sameer reported Half Year Results +21% but was unable to gain Traction
and closed unchanged at 8.40 and traded 47,000 shares.

EABL was unchanged at 180.00 and traded a 180.00-182.00 range and
86,000 shares worth 15.497m. We have been at this Resistance Level for
at least 4 weeks.

Mumias Sugar was unchanged at 12.50 and traded a 12.50-12.60 range and
435,100 shares worth 5.458m.

KenolKobil closed 0.49% easier at 10.10 and traded a 10.00-10.20 range
and 113,000 shares.
Total was unchanged at 29.50 and traded 5,300 shares.

BAT traded a 1,000 shares unchanged at 232.00.

BOC Kenya eased 0.71% to close at 140.00 and traded 200 shares.
Carbacid closed 2.504% easier at 156.00 and traded 8,100 shares.
Crown Berger was unchanged at 32.25.

Unga traded 23,900 shares all at 12.00 -4.38%.