www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

Macro Thoughts

V.Bullish on Cocoa.
China SSE 000001.ss looks constructive.
Keen on the Pound.

Home Thoughts

Prufrock TS ELiot
http://bartleby.net/198/1.html

I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.   
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each

Conclusions

It remains one of my Favourite Poems.

“Invisible: Covert Operations and Classified Landscapes,” a new book
by the artist Trevor Paglen, is an album of the visual side of these
secret worlds. Paglen’s “Limit Photography” series offers glimpses of
classified military installations, most of them in southwestern
states, some of them thousands of square miles in size. Their uses
range from combat training to the testing of “unacknowledged weapons.”
To photograph facilities deep in these restricted regions, Paglen used
high-powered binoculars and astrophotography lenses, sometimes
positioning himself on mountaintops. In another series, “The Other
Night Sky,” Paglen photographed classified spacecraft in Earth orbit,
borrowing tracking techniques from a global network of amateur
astronomers who have catalogued the nearly two hundred such objects
currently in space.

The photographs in both series are somewhat abstract, sometimes
blurry, giving them a haunted, ephemeral feel. “At extreme distances,
there is essentially no such thing as depth of field,” Paglen notes.
“No matter how ambiguous or elusive the images in this book are,
however, the underlying landscapes are quite real.” They also
represent a great deal of money. “The blank spots on the map that
Paglen describes have their corollary in the blank spots in the mind
and in public dialogue,” Rebecca Solnit writes in her introduction.
“We do not debate the development of new systems of killing, the
militarization of space, or the cost of our military budget, and most
of us know little or nothing about the programs in question.” The
Post, WikiLeaks, and Paglen have filled in a few of those blank spots.
The debate is up to us.

Here’s a selection of images from “Invisible.”

Unmarked 737 at “Gold Coast” Terminal, 2006. Distance ~ 1 mile.

Four Geostationary Satellites Above the Sierra Nevada, 2007.

Conclusions

Powerful Images. I found the Unmarked 737 particularly haunting.

The African Union called for the International Criminal Court’s arrest
warrants against Sudanese President Umar al-Bashir to be suspended
while the continental body carries out a probe into alleged genocide
in Darfur.

The Hague-based court earlier this month charged al-Bashir with three
counts of genocide against the Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa ethnic groups
in the western Sudanese region of Darfur. The court had issued a
warrant against al-Bashir in March for war crimes and crimes against
humanity.

“We have decided to establish our own mechanism,” AU President Bingu
wa Mutharika told reporters today in Kampala at the end of a three-day
summit of African leaders. “We are asking the United Nations to
suspend for the period of 12 months” the arrest warrants against
al-Bashir, he said.

Conclusions

The ICC gets too close for Comfort?

Euro 1.2993 Key Level
Pound 1.5586 Trades Bullish and has rallied 8 Big Figures since
Osborne's Budget.
Dollar Index 82.14
Aussie 0.8929 - Lost its hold on .90+
India Rupee 46.37 Subbarao tightened 50 bps yesterday
Rand 7.3407 - NedBank

The euro traded at $1.2989, compared with $1.2999 in late North
American trade Monday. It rose as high as $1.3046 in earlier U.S.
trading, the best level since May 10.

The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence fell to 50.4 in
July from a revised 54.3 in June.

Weak labor-market conditions and talk of a 'double-dip' scenario in
the U.S. undermined confidence in July.

The British pound rose to $1.5575, up from $1.5490. Sterling was
supported after the Confederation of British Industry's monthly
retail-sales survey showed a large jump in sales volumes. Important
resistance is seen for the pound near $1.5560, which is near the
200-day moving average and also marks the 50% retracement of the down
move from the November highs at $1.6880 and the low this year near
$1.4230, said Michael Hewson, currency strategist at CMC Markets.

Conclusions

I have been Bullish The Pound since Osborne's Budget.

Sterling versus The Dollar INO
http://j.mp/d8rsnf

Asian shares were mostly higher Wednesday, with the Nikkei charging
ahead 2.4% on solid corporate earnings from Canon. Dow Edges Up 12.26
Points.

The Treasury sold the notes at a yield of 0.665%, even lower than the
0.738% achieved at June's auction. That is a boon to the U.S.
government, as it continues to borrow at historically low interest
rates to fund a more than $1 trillion budget shortfall.

Conclusions

Geithner's Lucky Streak.

1-Month Bill*    -0/32    0.142
3-Month Bill*    0/32    0.157
6-Month Bill*    0/32    0.206
1-Year Note*    0/32    0.278
2-Year Note*    -3/32    0.641
3-Year Note*    -6/32    1.011
5-Year Note*    -9/32    1.790
7-Year Note*    -12/32    2.483
10-Year Note*    -15/32    3.049
30-Year Bond*    -1 2/32    4.080

Conclusions

Japan 1990s Redux.

Gold for August delivery lost $25.10, or 2.1%, to $1,158 an ounce on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was gold's lowest level since
April 26 and its biggest one-day decline since July 1. It also marks a
decrease of 8% from gold's record high of $1,258.30 set June 18.

Demand in top consumer India is set to pick up ahead of the busy
festival season, starting in late August and extending until November,
analyst Pradeep Unni at Richcomm Global in Dubai said in a note to
clients

Conclusions

Washing the Longs out.

Nymex Crude Falls Back From $80/Bbl Barrier to close  down $1.48, or
1.9%, lower at $77.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Cocoa +0.83% - I am seriously Bullish on Cocoa See The Options
Strategy from 2 Days back.
Coffee -1.16%
Sugar -1.25%

Last Price    3065
Settle Time    11:59
Previous Close    3079
Low    3039
Open Int.    4397
Contract High    3410
Contract Low    2877
First Delivery    2011-07-29
Contract High Date    2010-01-26
Contract Low Date    2010-03-10

Conclusions

I expect a move through 3410 Contract Highs.

Cocoa July 2011 Options Ladder
http://j.mp/cQJLd4

2011-06-03    2700    CC.N11.2700P    168    -2    Sell These Puts
2011-06-03    3200    CC.N11.3200C    278    +3    Buy These Calls

Conclusions

Sell Puts x 2 Buy Calls x 1 .

Index Value:    2,630.15
Trade Time:    2:52AM EDT
Change:    Up 54.78 (2.13%)
Prev Close:    2,575.37
Open:    2,574.32
Day's Range:    2,564.16 - 2,636.00
52wk Range:    2,319.74 - 3,478.01

Conclusions

I was Bullish some way lower.

Index Value:    18,090.80
Trade Time:    2:58AM EDT
Change:    Up 13.19 (0.07%)
Prev Close:    18,077.61
Open:    18,077.85
Day's Range:    18,042.29 - 18,137.14
52wk Range:    14,684.50 - 18,237.60

Conclusions

Dealing with Subbarao and His Tightening Bias with aplomb for now.

A bright red lacquer staircase and a glass-walled lift lead to Wasabi
by Morimoto in the Taj Mahal Palace & Tower, less than two years after
the hotel was damaged in terror attacks that left 166 dead across
Mumbai.
Window tables in the mezzanine-level restaurant look out to the
Gateway of India and the Arabian Sea.

The oyster foie gras at 1,550 rupees and the braised black cod for
1,600 rupees were notable. The oysters and liver were served with a
caramelized teriyaki sauce and a piquant yama- momo, or Japanese
bayberry, while the braised black cod sat in a ginger,
teriyaki-tasting reduction

Sashimi at the restaurant Wasabi by Morimoto in Mumbai, India. The
assortment of fresh fish is chopstick tender. Photographer: Margot
Towie/Bloomberg

Conclusions

We ate in the very Restaurant and I can confirm that the Food was as
spectacular as is the View.

Paris is abuzz with rumors about King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and why
he didn’t show up, as planned, at the opening of the Louvre’s first
show devoted to his country.Was he furious at an article in the
newspaper “Le Figaro” quoting him on June 29 -- falsely, say the
Saudis -- as having said to Herve Morin, the French minister of
defense, that two countries, Iran and Israel, didn’t deserve to exist?

Or was the 85-year-old monarch just tired after the G20 summit in
Toronto and his subsequent trip to Washington?

Whatever the reason, his absence shouldn’t discourage you from
visiting “Routes d’Arabie: Archeologie et Histoire du Royaume d’Arabie
Saoudite.” It’s a show full of surprises.

Compared with other Middle Eastern countries, Saudi Arabia is little
known for its archaeological sites. The strictly religious government
has been in no hurry to direct attention to the pre-Islamic period of
“Jahiliya,” or ignorance.

The ancient door to the Kaaba. The artifact is on loan from the
National Museum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to the show "Arabian Roads,"
on view at the Louvre Museum through Sept. 27. Source: Musee du Louvre
via Bloomberg

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi said on Tuesday his dream of a United
States of Africa was still alive and this week's African Union summit
was another step towards that objective.

"I am satisfied that Africa is going along its historic and right
road," Gaddafi told a small group of reporters in Kampala at the end
of the summit. "One day it will become similar to the United States of
America."

"We are approaching the formation of the African Authority, and each
time we solve African problems and also move in the direction of peace
and unity. We deal with problems step by step. We are continuing to do
that," Gaddafi said.

Conclusions

He Promised $90b which will go some of the way.

Conclusions

7.19 is the Key Area of Resistance. Pushed higher on talk that HSBC is
running the Slide Rule over NEDBANK.

Value28,461.48   
Change-37.520    
% Change-0.132

Conclusions

It has the Highest Correlation with Developed Markets of all the
African Indices.

Value6,193.28   
Change0.001    
% Change0.000

Conclusions

Concerns about President Mubarak's Mortal Coil.

Value5,004.23   
Change23.660    
% Change0.475

Conclusions

Lowest Beta of all the Sub Saharan Markets and Top Performing Equity
Index World Wide on a 3 Year View.

Value25,925.20   
Change355.030    
% Change1.388

Conclusions

Based Out turning higher.

Nigerian Central Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi said on Tuesday there was
still interest from potential investors in all of the banks rescued in
a $4 billion bailout last year.

"I can confirm that there are parties interested in combining with
each and every one of the banks," Sanusi told a news conference in the
capital Abuja.

"But at this point it is about interest. Whether we will link up these
deals depends on the negotiations ... So far things are looking
positive," he said.

Conclusions

I am certain There is plenty of Interest from all corners.

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide plans to expand in South Africa,
the continent's largest economy, and is eyeing African frontier
markets for future growth, a top executive said on Tuesday.U.S.-based
Starwood, whose portfolio includes Le Meridien, Westin, W Hotels,
Sheraton and others, faces stiff competition in South Africa,
especially after operators added rooms for the country's hosting of
the soccer World Cup, which ended this month.

"We have nine brands under the Starwood umbrella and would like to see
multiple brands in both Cape Town and Johannesburg, where we don't
have any current presence, with our nearest hotel in Pretoria,"
Patrick Finn, a senior director of acquisitions and development for
Africa and the Middle East, told Reuters in an interview.

Finn said Starwood was also looking to expand in East Africa,
specifically in regional economic power Kenya, and Tanzania, where it
was eyeing game park-themed hotels.Angola, one of Africa's top oil
producers, was a key future destination, although the soaring property
prices in capital Luanda, remained a challenge for operators and
investors.

Pages of history ... reading an ancient Koranic manuscript in
Chinguetti. Photograph: Remi Benali/Corbis

The bone-dry wood creaks as the book opens at a page representing the
course of the moon, framed by black balls and red crescents. The
manuscript contains 132 pages of Arab astronomy bound in well-worn
leather, a 15th-century treasure stored, with similar items, in a
cardboard box in a traditional dwelling in Chinguetti. This historic
town, on the Adrar plateau in Mauritania, holds some of the finest
collections of old Arabo-Berber books, but now the desert libraries
are disappearing.

Describing the retired President’s campaign against the proposed law
as a “shame” and “panic”, Mr Kibaki asked Mr Moi to join the
government to ensure the country gets a new constitution.

Though the President’s remarks were given in a good-natured way, they
were the more pointed in that Mr Kibaki was publicly attacking Mr Moi
for first time in the seven years he has been in power.

Mr Kibaki, without naming him, accused Mr Moi of misleading Kenyans
and asked him to stop doing so: “Wazee wengine wanazunguka wakisema
katiba ni mbaya (Some old men are moving around saying the
constitution is bad).”

“Ni aibu kubwa kwa wazee kama hawa. Awache wasiwasi na aungane na sisi
tupitishe katiba (It is a shame for such old men. He should stop
panicking and join us so that we can pass the constitution),” he said.

The President told Mr Moi to give up his campaigns so that he could be
respected by Kenyans once the constitution is endorsed in the August 4
referendum.

Conclusions

“I am glad that you came in large numbers and it is certain that you
have decided to vote for the draft. It is now obvious that the new
constitution will go through at the referendum so that we concentrate
on something else,” the President said.

Further Conclusions

For someone who has the 'Rep' of being incredibly laid back [a David
Gower of Presidential Politics] he has morphed into a 24 Hour Tyro
Campaigner and becoming a lot more Forthright.

Value76.03   
Change0.360    
% Change0.476

Conclusions

Its a Triangle Pattern which normally signals a Large Break either way
and its a Pattern I have relied on to trade Currencies and
Commodities.

Clearly the Referendum is the High Impact Event and I expect a 30%
Rally from here on a Yes Vote
[Feel Good Local and International] and I think a NO Vote takes us
back to Scratch on Political Risk and 2012 being telescoped to now.

Reflections on Life Treasury Bills and The Referendum The Star
http://j.mp/a0FTVm

Kenya will maintain its policy of auctioning the 91-day and the
182-day Treasury bills separately on alternate weeks, its central bank
governor said on Tuesday.

The bank had departed from that policy by offering bills of both
maturities at last week's auction before announcing it had cancelled
the sale of the 91-day bills, angering some traders. [ID:nLDE66M0H6]

"The CBK (Central Bank of Kenya) will continue separating 91- and 182-
day Treasury bills in the weeks ahead to continue developing the yield
curve in the shorter end of the market," Njuguna Ndung'u said in a
statement to Reuters.

"The CBK cancelled the 91-day Treasury bills auction because it wanted
to remain consistent with the policy adapted in FY 2009/10 where the
auctions for the two securities were separated and held in alternate
weeks."

The actual performance of the 182-day Treasury bill auction was a
subscription rate of 147.7 percent, he said, rejecting claims in local
media that the sale was under-subscribed.

The government wanted to raise 9 billion shillings ($111.3 million)
from auction of bills of both maturities before changing its mind and
raising money only from the 182-day bills, creating the impression
there was an under-subscription.

"The actual performance for this auction was 147.7 percent. By trying
to raise the full amount from the single 182-day Treasury bills
auction, the cut-off rate edged up 19.9 basis points," he said.

Conclusions

He has shown not a small amount of Accomplishment.

Kenyan firms spent Sh20 billion on advertising in the six months to
June —nearly as much as the annual spend for 2008 —signalling a rising
optimism in the economy and the jostling for brand visibility in a
market where consumers are regaining lost purchasing power.

Total advertising spend on radio, television and print media –
excluding rate card discounts – closed at Sh20.4 billion in 2008,
according to data from Synovate, making the 2010 half year spend only
Sh400 million short of the annual spend two years ago.

Mr Joe Otin, the media monitoring director at Synovate, said the firm
has seen a slowdown in discounting that has been rampant among the 97
radio stations vying for a share of the advertising spend.

“Discounting and offering other value-added services has been eroding
earnings from radio and TV commercials but print is less affected,” he
said.

In the first half, for instance, the share of print revenues was 16
per cent or Sh3.2 billion, up from 14 per cent or Sh4.4 billion for
the whole of last year.

Radio increased its share by one percentage point to stand at 52 per
cent while the TV segment dropped from 34 per cent to 31 per cent.

Conclusions

Online is the new Hyper Growth Curve from a Very low Base.

Standard Chartered Bank matched its all time Closing high 257.00 Yesterday
http://j.mp/1MoR3I

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          257.00
Total Shares Issued:          271,967,808
Market Capitalization:        69,896M
EPS:            16.78
PE:                15.316

Kenya Commercial Bank share price data www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/bshUrU

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          18.10
Total Shares Issued:          2,217,777,664
Market Capitalization:        40,142M
EPS:            2.05
PE:                8.829

Conclusions

I can see this share rallying quite sharply.

RICH TV Interview with Martin Odour-Otieno
http://j.mp/81lKEb

It was a Broad based move Higher and I suspect the President's pointed
Remarks yesterday coupled with a Sense that the Referendum Result is
all over Bar the Shouting [The Market, on my Model, has a positive
Bias of between 20-30% on a  Yes Outcome] was the Catalyst for
Investors to come off the Sidelines.

The NASI firmed 0.28 points to close at 95.53. 100 was the Level on
January 2008, so is an immediate Objective.
The NSE20 firmed 13.06 points to close at 4338.25.
Market Cap was 1.116665 Trillion versus 1.113405 Trillion last time.
Equity Turnover was 321.18m versus 312.368m last time.

Kakuzi traded 11,300 shares all at 78.00 +1.3%.
Sasini Tea eased 5 cents to close at 13.50 and traded 37,000 shares.
Rea Vipingo traded 200 shares at 17.00 -1.45%.

SAFARICOM

shares volume     4.335m
avg price     5.6805  Closing Price 5.65 Unchanged
high price     5.75
low price     5.65
last price     5.75

Conclusions

Safaricom was the 5th most active Counter. Safaricom has been
contained in a 5.50-6.10 range for quite some time. I expect a Move
towards the Top of the Range. Today we were trading 5.75 +1.77% at the
Finish Line.

Safaricom share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/4cdZRM

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:          5.65
Total Shares Issued:          40,000,000,000
Market Capitalization:        226,000M
EPS:            0.38
PE:                14.868

Scangroup firmed 0.69% to close at 36.50 and traded a 36.00-37.00
range and 301,800 shares worth 11.052. Synovate are confirming AD
Spend at 20b 1st Half 2010 which was the entire spend for 2009.
ScanGroup has also locked up the Airtel Africa Account firming
confirming its transition into a SSA Franchise.

ScanGroup share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/c1tljc

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          36.25
Total Shares Issued:          220,689,648
Market Capitalization:        8,000M
EPS:            1.81
PE:                20.028

Access Kenya rallied 1.605% to close at 19.00 and was trading at 19.60
+4.81% into the Finish. Access Kenya traded 90,400 shares.

Nation retreated 0.69% to close at 143.00 and traded 23,000 shares.
Standard Group did not trade.

Kenya Airways retreated 0.55% to close at 45.50 and traded 17,900 shares.

CMC Holdings firmed 5 cents to close at 12.15 and traded 43,900 shares.
CarGen traded 300 shares at an unchanged 48.50.

NIC was the most active Counter at the Bourse and firmed 0.63% to
close at 40.00. NIC traded 1.597m shares [0.444% of its shares] worth
63.89m. NIC trades on a Trailing PE of 12.009 and looks inexpensive on
that Measure.

NIC share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/20bSMS

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          39.75
Total Shares Issued:          358,997,792
Market Capitalization:        14,270M
EPS:            3.31
PE:                12.009

KCB rallied 1.1% to close at 18.30 and was trading at 18.50 +2.21%
session highs into the Finish. KCB traded 314,900 shares and Demand is
outweighing Supply by a Factor of 4-1 signalling the Base is in.
Equity Bank was the 2nd most active Counter and firmed 1.075% to close
at 23.50. Equity Bank traded a 23.00-24.00 range and 2.774m shares.
Barclays Bank firmed 0.795% to close at 63.50 and traded a 63.00-67.50
range and 156,400 shares worth 10.002m. The Retreat from 70.00 had
become overdone.
COOP Bank closed 0.675% firmer at 14.90 and traded a 14.75-15.00 range
and 575,600 shares. COOP Bank's all time closing High was posted this
Year and not so long ago at 15.50.
Stanchart came back 2.34% to close at 251.00 on low volume of 9,500
shares. 257.00 yesterdays close was its all time Closing High
[Previously touched in January 2007].

HFCK rallied a steep 4.816% to close at 21.75 and traded a session
high of 22.75 +9.632%. HFCK traded 599,100 shares worth 13.047m.
CFC StanBic closed unchanged at 82.50 and traded 11,300 shares.
DTB traded 2,600 shares at 94.00 -0.53%.
NBK firmed 0.665% to close at 38.25 and traded 21,000 shares.

Centum rallied 3.09% to close at 20.00 and traded a 19.50-20.50 range
and is displaying a 6-1 Demand Supply Imbalance signalling the Pull
Back is complete.

Kenya Re was unchanged at 11.40 but was trading at 11.85 +3.95% into
the close. Kenya Re traded 261,000 shares.
Jubilee was unchanged at 169.000 and traded 2,000 shares.
PanAfric did not trade.

Olympia Capital closed at 7.25.

Mumias Sugar was the 3rd most active share. Mumias rallied 3.6% to
close at 12.95 and was trading session highs of 13.30 +6.4% into the
Finish. Mumias Sugar traded 2.322m shares worth 30.121m. Mumias Sugar
has registered a 133.193% ex Dividend 12 month return. Mumias trades
on a Trailing PE of 11.905 and a Forward of below 10.00.

Mumias Sugar share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/4WJWWK

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:          12.50
Total Shares Issued:          1,530,000,000
Market Capitalization:        19,125M
EPS:            1.05
PE:                11.905

BAT traded 4th at the Bourse. BAT rallied 3.01875% to close at 239.00.
BAT traded a 232.00-240.00 range and 109,300 shares worth 26.224m.
BAT's All time Record High was 247.00 printed in January 2007 and That
looks to be in sight again.

BAT share price data and 1st Half Results here www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/aJsT6n

Par Value:                  10/-
Closing Price:          232.00
Total Shares Issued:          100,000,000
Market Capitalization:        23,200M
EPS:            14.78
PE:                15.697

EABL traded 67,900 shares worth 12.222m and all at an unchanged 180.00.

Athi River Mining rallied 2.76% to close at 149.00 and traded a
145.00-150.00 range and 190,100 shares. Athi River Mining is 1
shilling away from its all time High close of 150.00.
Bamburi Cement traded 9,000 shares at 200.00 +0.5%.
Portland did not trade.

KenGen firmed 0.29% to close at 17.05 and traded 163,400 shares.
KPLC rose 0.53% to close at 190.00 and traded 7,700 shares.
Cables eased back 1.545% to close at 19.10 and traded 23,600 shares.

KenolKobil closed unchanged at 9.85 and traded a 9.70-10.00 range and
551,900 shares.
Total was unchanged at 29.25 and traded 15,300 shares.

BOC Kenya closed a shilling lighter at 139.00 on just 300 shares.
Carbacid was unchanged at 157.00 and traded 2,400 shares.
Crown Berger was unchanged at 32.00 and traded 16,300 shares.
Eveready closed at 3.90 and traded 26,800 shares.
Sameer was unchanged at 8.50 and traded 35,700 shares.
Unga closed at 12.05 and traded 2,800 shares.