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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 22nd of November 2011

www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the
site http://www.rich.co.ke

Mindspeak is on the 26th November at the @InterConNairobi The Guest is
Seni Adetu CEO #EABL

#Mindspeak 2011 RICH TV

A Description of the #Mindspeak Audience Financial Times

#Mindspeak 2011 RICH TV

Are Arab economies on the road to ruin? #Aljazeera  Inside Story aired
on Friday, August 12, 2011

I thank Samantha Loring for the Interview on CNBC today. Thanks

Macro Thoughts

Exploring The State of the Now Twitpic

Home Thoughts

You know as a Father with Daughters, the most delicious Experience is
getting a Kiss from each of them in the Morning. Hannah will
oftentimes just get hold of my Bald Pate and wont stop and I never
want her to stop. Aysha and Layla have apparently internalised the
'Mwah Mwah' Kiss that can be found at Royal Ascot.

read more

Tibet self-immolation: Video purports to show nun setting herself on fire Global Post
Law & Politics

The footage — released Monday by Students for a Free Tibet — purports
to show a burning figure they say set herself alight Nov. 3 in the
town of Tawu, in a Tibetan region of Western China. According to the
group, the woman was Palden Choetso, 35, a nun from Geden Choeling
Convent, who died of her injuries.

Other nuns witnessing the self-immolation in the video are chanting
“Freedom to Tibet," according to a press release accompanying the
footage. The release said the video also shows thousands of Tibetans
gathering in a candlelight vigil early on the morning of Choetso's
funeral, and it depicts Chinese security forces converging on Nyitso
Monastery, where Students for a Free Tibet said Choetso’s body was


One thing is for sure, though: When people begin to set themselves on
fire for the sake of a cause, all bets are off.

read more

Egypt's army is 'at war with the people' as riots flare again in Cairo Independent
Law & Politics

The Egyptian cabinet offered its resignation last night as deadly
riots, which once again have turned parts of central Cairo into a
battlefield, continued into the evening, threatening the viability of
next week's landmark elections and leaving at least 33 people dead.

Stone-throwing youths faced down riot police outside the American
University of Cairo near Tahrir Square, as hundreds of protesters
shouted chants calling for the downfall of Field Marshal Mohamed
Hussein Tantawi, Egypt's de facto leader.


Tantawi the Head of SCAF, was and apparently remains a Trusted Mubarak
Servant. Most Servants essentially follow and mimic  their Master's
Ways. Fritz Fanon made his Career on this type of Analysis. Tantawi
and SCAF have no Plan [except not to repeat the Camel Show], they are
in fact in a completely bygone Era. The Question remains around how
the Army exits. The Money has already voted about $14b has pressed the
Exit Button in 2011.
Aly-Khan Satchu

Tantawi and Mubarak Image

read more

Iran faces new wave of sanctions over nuclear programme Guardian
Law & Politics

The US and Britain are leading a new wave of international sanctions
targeting Iran's banks and oil industry following the International
Atomic Energy Agency's report earlier this month that said Tehran
worked for many years to develop nuclear weapons and may still be
doing so.

Britain has used counter-terrorism powers to order its financial
sector to cut all ties with Iranian banks in an attempt to undermine
funding of the nuclear programme. The US announced measures intended
to limit Tehran's ability to refine its own fuel as well as targeting
Iran's Revolutionary Guards' financial interests.

The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, wrote to European leaders as
well as the US and Japan calling for "unprecedented" sanctions against
Iran, including a halt to buying its oil.

But the measures are expected to have a limited impact in the face of
resistance from China and Russia to strengthening global sanctions
against Iran through the United Nations security council.

Britain went the furthest by, for the first time, cutting an entire
country's banking system off from London's financial sector. It said
that Iranian banks "play a crucial role in providing financial
services to individuals and entities within Iran's nuclear and
ballistic missile programmes".

read more

Hezbollah Waits and Prepares WSJ
Law & Politics

On a recent Saturday afternoon, a radar operated by French United
Nations peacekeepers picked up a pilotless Israeli reconnaissance
drone crossing into south Lebanon. It was given no more attention than
any of the dozens of other surveillance missions flown by the Israelis
in Lebanese airspace each month.

But when the drone passed above Wadi Hojeir, a yawning valley with
steep, brush-covered slopes, it abruptly vanished from the radar
screen. The startled peacekeepers contacted the Lebanese army, and a
search of the rugged valley was conducted in the early-evening gloom.
Nothing was found.

No one can recall the last time that an Israeli drone malfunctioned
over Lebanon and crashed, and there were no reports of antiaircraft
fire. The Israelis have said nothing. Neither has Hezbollah, the
Lebanese militant group and arch foe of Israel. The peacekeeping force
is now abuzz with speculation that Hezbollah may have found a way of
electronically disabling drones.

Iran has delivered its own warnings. Brig. Gen. Masoud Jazayeri, the
deputy chief of the country's armed forces, was quoted saying that
"the smallest action by Israel [against Iran] and we will see its
destruction." He added that plans for retaliation were already in

Many analysts believe that those plans could include directing
Hezbollah to unleash its military might against Israel, pummeling it
with thousands of long-range rockets, placing the Jewish state's
heartland on the frontline for the first time since 1948.

Syria is an important conduit for the transfer of arms to Hezbollah,
but more crucially it is Iran's only solid ally in the Arab world,
granting Tehran an influential toehold on Israel's northern border and
providing strategic depth for Hezbollah

"Let them attack Iran. It will be great," said a young, stocky
Hezbollah fighter named Khodr. "It will mean that Israel is finished."

—Mr. Blanford is a Beirut-based correspondent. His new book is
"Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah's Thirty-Year Struggle Against


Iran is not Iraq Osirack circa 1981. Iran has a great deal of
Strategic Depth and Hezbollah is the Outlier in this regard. Iran can
surely also imperil the Shipping Lanes. Bibi Netanyahu has a Churchill
Thing. The Biggest Risk remains an Israeli Project to bomb Iran, a
Project whose Consequences and Blow Back is simply impossible to

Iran and its Regime are clearly not to our Liking. But Khamenei is
neither Saddam nor Muammar.

Iran is a completely different Prospect.

Aly-Khan Satchu

Secretary General of Hezbollah Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah Image

read more

Turkish president says Syrian crisis at a 'dead end' and change is inevitable Guardian
Law & Politics

"Syria is now at a dead end so change is inevitable," Gul said. "But
we don't believe the right way to create change is through external
intervention. The people must make that change. Civil war is not
something that anyone would want to see happen. Everything must be
done to prevent it. It is very dangerous."

"It's quite too late for that sort of thing now," he said. "He seems
to have opted for a different route. And frankly we do not have any
more trust in him."

"Based on our own experience, the job of the military is not to govern
a country," he warned. "If they do that, the masses will turn against

"It is important to put oneself in their shoes and see how they [the
Iranians] perceive threats," Gul said, referring to Israel's
undeclared nuclear arsenal. "There are different groups and
concentrations of power in Iran. You can't see them as one single
authority. For the sake of peace it is very important that the
dialogue between Iran and the west progresses in a more frank and
transparent way. When I say transparent I mean Iran, and when I say
frank I mean the west."


I am not sure Bashar Assad will be dislodged. I think Turkey and Saudi
Arabia [The Prime Movers behind the Oust Assad Strategy] are set to
fall out and that Turkey is surely the eventual Winner.

Re The Comment about the Military, is surely about Tantawi and SCAF
who are past their Sell By Date and have simply no PLAN, that can fly.

Good Comments on Iran.

Occupy poster art: drawing inspiration from underground comics and
vintage socialist art Guardian

read more

Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.3475 touched 1.3422 on Nov. 17, the lowest since Oct. 10.
Yen 77.05 -0.2% over the last 24 Hours
Swiss Franc 0.9180
Pound 1.5627 touched 1.5613, the lowest level since Oct. 12 Average
asking prices for houses in England and Wales slid 3.1 percent from
October, the largest drop since November 2010, Rightmove
^DXY 78.41
Aussie 0.9848
India Rupee 52.555
South Korea Won 1147.84
Brazil Real 1.8071 below 1.8 per dollar for the first time in a month
South Africa Rand 8.3249

The Federal Reserve will today release minutes of its Nov. 1-2 meeting
when central bank officials lowered their U.S. economic-growth

The pound has weakened 3.7 percent in the past 12 months, the
second-worst performer after the New Zealand dollar among 10
developed-market peers measured by Bloomberg Correlation- Weighted
Currency Indexes


I am bullish The Dollar Index as I have been for some time.

Dollar Index ^DXY 1 Year Chart INO 78.408 +0.108 (+0.14%)

I am looking for 81 and then 83.00.

read more

World Equity Markets At A Glance
World Of Finance

DJIA    11547.31    -248.85    -2.11%
Japan Nikkei Average    8301.93    -46.34    -0.56%
Stoxx Europe 600    224.76    -7.41    -3.19%
UK: FTSE 100    5222.60    -140.34    -2.62%
Australia: S&P/ASX    4134.40    -28.60    -0.69%
China: Shanghai Composite    2391.71    -23.42    -0.97%
Hong Kong: Hang Seng    18047.54    -178.31    -0.98%
India: BSE Sensex    16085.28    139.18    +0.87%
France: CAC 40    2894.94    -102.07    -3.41%
Germany: DAX    5606.00    -194.24    -3.35%
Israel: DJ Israel TSM    784.27    -36.55    -4.45%
S. Africa: FTSE/JSE Africa All Share    31116.01    -696.65    -2.19%

U.S. stocks slumped, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its
longest decline since September, amid concern the U.S. government will
be forced to submit to $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts.
All 10 industries in the benchmark measure declined as 468 out of 500
companies retreated. The S&P 500 fell 1.9 percent to 1,192.98 at 4
p.m. New York time. The benchmark gauge for American equities has lost
5.2 percent in four days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined
248.85 points, or 2.1 percent, to 11,547.31 today. The supercommittee
created to cut the deficit said after the close of U.S. exchanges that
it failed to reach a deal.

“The supercommittee was expected to pave the way to extend the
stimulus that is in the system,” Barry Knapp, the New York- based head
of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays Plc, said in a telephone
interview. If stimulus is not extended, “you get a big hit to the
economy in the first quarter right at the point when the economic
fallout from the European debt crisis is hitting,” he said.


I said they had gotten too far in front of the Real Economy.

read more

"Skull with Knives" (2005) by Damien Hirst, in "Memories of the Future" Bloomberg

“I have a disease,” says the ex- professor of endocrinology and former
chairman of the German hair-products company Wella AG. “I collect.”

“Art is a new focus after the stock market, gold and so on,” he says.
“I give lectures to bankers on the subject.”

Death is the recurrent theme. A Damien Hirst canvas of a skull on an
autopsy table shares a gallery with a 17th-century painting of the
dead Christ in his tomb. Cindy Sherman’s self- portrait as a vamp
stares out at a Chapman Brothers sculpture of skeletons hanging from a

“It’s characteristic of me to think about what will happen in the
future,” says the boyish father of five, dressed in a dark jacket and
blue open-necked shirt. “As I get older, I just have this connection
to the theme of death.”

read more

Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Live Crude Oil chart 97.16 Last

Crude oil for January delivery was at $97.06 a barrel, up 14 cents, in
electronic trading on the New York Mercantile at 2:17 p.m. in
Singapore. The contract slipped 75 cents yesterday to $96.92, the
lowest settlement since Nov. 9. Front-month prices are 19 percent
higher than a year ago.

Oil may extend losses in New York after the moving-average
convergence/divergence indicator fell below its signal line for the
first time since Oct. 6, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Investors tend to sell contracts on a so-called bearish MACD
crossover. Futures have technical support along the 200-day moving
average, or $95.40 a barrel today. That’s close to where yesterday’s
decline halted.


I think there is a material Spike Risk, Iran refers.

Gold Live KITCO 1686.3 Last

Gold Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.7 percent to
$1,688.25 an ounce and traded at $1,685.65 at 3:04 p.m. in Singapore.
The metal fell to $1,667.03 yesterday, the lowest level since Oct. 25.
Holdings in exchange-traded products climbed to a record 2,341.939
metric tons yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Gold, which
reached a record $1,921.15 on Sept. 6, is set for an 11th annual gain
as investors shun declining equities and some currencies. The metal is
1.7 percent lower this month as the dollar rallied 2.3 percent against
a six-currency basket.

Cash silver fell 0.4 percent to $31.4625 an ounce after dropping to a
one-month low of $30.6875 yesterday. Spot platinum gained 0.4 percent
to $1,554.50 an ounce after touching $1,537.75 yesterday, the lowest
level since Oct. 25. Palladium lost 0.6 percent to $587.50 an ounce
after declining to a one- month low of $583.50 yesterday.


BUY on Pullbacks, a Strategy that has worked for 11 Years.

read more

India Rupee versus The Dollar 1 Year Chart INO 52.57 Last An All Time Low
World Currencies

The currency dropped past 52.18 to a dollar, a level last seen on
March 3, 2009. The 14.6 percent depreciation of the rupee, the worst-
performing among Asia-Pacific’s 10 most-traded currencies. The rupee
has fallen as the BSE India Sensitive Index of shares tumbled 22.3
percent this year. The Reserve Bank of India cut the nation’s growth
forecast to 7.6 percent from 8 percent, and the rupee’s slide inflated
the import bill and pushed the trade shortfall to a 17-year high of
$19.6 billion in October.


Lower still.

read more

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar INO 5.9857 Last lowest since January 2005


It breaks 6.00 and the Downside Move will accelerate.

Egypt ^EGX30 Bloomberg -45.9535144% 2011 March 2009 Low

Value     3,860.99     
Change     -162.460 (-4.038%)
Open     4,023.45
High     4,023.37
Low     3,860.99

Egypt Shares Slump to Lowest Since 2009, Bonds Fall on Violence Businessweek

Egypt’s stocks tumbled to the lowest since March 2009, the country’s
2020 dollar bonds fell and credit risk soared amid deadly clashes
between protesters and security forces.

The benchmark EGX 30 Index lost 4 percent to 3,860.99 at the 2:30 p.m.
close in Cairo. The yield on the 5.75 percent dollar notes due April
2020 climbed to the highest since March and the cost of protecting
government debt against default for five years surged to the highest
since March 2009.

“What we’re seeing today is a fear-induced reaction reflecting a
worst-case scenario that may involve the delay of elections and a
prolonged period of economic instability,” said Wael Ziada, head of
research at Cairo-based EFG-Hermes Holding SAE. “The military council
has assured that the elections will happen on time. It now needs to
outline clear timeline for the transfer power of a civilian

Parliamentary elections are due to start Nov. 28. A date for
presidential elections hasn’t been set by the military council.
Egypt’s ruling military council has issued a draft law on political
corruption, state-run Nile News reported today, without saying how it
got the information

About 65 million shares exchanged hands today, compared with a
six-month daily average of 81 million shares. Orascom Telecom Holding
SAE, North Africa’s biggest mobile-phone company by users, lost 3.9
percent to 2.95 Egyptian pounds, the lowest close in more than seven

The yield on the country’s 2020 dollar bond climbed 25 basis points to
6.40 percent. Five-year credit default swaps surged 55 basis points to
525, according to data provider CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc.
and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately-negotiated

The Egyptian pound earlier weakened to as low as 5.9901 a dollar, the
lowest intraday level since January 2005. It lost 0.1 percent to


Getting Ugly.

I covered a Lot of this with Dr. Ahmed Heikal Citadel Capital RICH #TV

Interview with Dr. Ahmed Heikal Citadel Capital #Egypt RICH TV Twitpic

A stand-off between protesters and police in Tahrir Square Guardian Image

read more

Dollar versus Rand 1 Year Chart INO 8.3057 Last
World Currencies

I am looking for 9.00

Tanzania Shilling versus The Dollar ForexPros Live

Uganda Shilling versus The Dollar ForexPros Live

read more

I.Coast to resume coupon payments from June 2012 Reuters
World Of Finance

"In spite of its very limited capacity to payment, the Republic of
Cote d'Ivoire confirms its undertaking to resume full contractual
payments to the holders of $2.3 billion Step-Up bonds due 2032 next
year, beginning with the interest coupon due on June 30, 2012," said
the statement signed by Finance Minister Charles Koffi Diby.

The veracity of the statement to bondholders, which was initially
obtained by Reuters from a market source, was later confirmed by a
finance ministry official.

read more

A Picture I took of the Marche De Valeurs Kinshasa DRC Twitpic

That Screen is locked from the Mobutu Era when the Borsa last traded.

The Building is within the Presidential Complex in Kinshasa and
subsequent to my Visit a Number of Soldiers were attacked at a Check
point just outside.

The Election is Front and Centre now.

read more

Kenya's Richest Man Pursues Presidential Dream Forbes
Law & Politics

Uhuru Kenyatta, a deputy Prime minister and the son of Kenya’s first
president, Jomo Kenyatta, has declared his interest in running for the
2012 Presidential elections of the Republic of Kenya.

Kenyatta, who is ranked as the 26th richest man in Africa in our
inaugural list of the 40 richest Africans announced his candidacy last
week during a public function in Narok, a commercial town west of
Nairobi. He addressed leaders of the community, informing them, “I
will come back to seek your votes as I will be in the presidential
race next year.”

Kenyatta is aggressively pursuing his presidential ambition and is
leveraging the power of social media to endear himself to the young
Kenyan electorate. He is one of the most social media savvy
politicians in the country, and operates active Twitter and Facebook
accounts which he uses to keep followers informed about his
activities. (His Twitter handle is @UKenyatta and he has 21,400
followers.) He also has an active YouTube channel through which his
staff frequently uploads videos of him making appearances and speaking
at public functions.

Will he make a great president? Last week, I put the question through
to some of my Kenyan followers on Twitter.

I picture I found of Uhuru's Father President Jomo Kenyatta Twitpic

read more

Pattni sells 15 pc stake in troubled Marshalls E Africa Business Daily
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Businessman Kamlesh Pattni has sold a 15 per cent stake in Marshalls
East Africa months after gaining control of the loss-making auto
dealer from his business rival Ketan Somaia. Details in the auto
firm’s latest report show that Mr Pattni’s stake dropped to 50.57 per
cent as at March compared to 65.57 per cent in a similar period last
year — earning the controversial businessman more than Sh30 million.

Data from the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) show that the share
sales—estimated at 2.1 million happened in large blocks late last year
of between 200,000 to 325,000 shares for counter that goes for days
without witnessing trading.


I once watched a BBC Program about Mr.Pattni and he said he was Like
Jesus and misunderstood in his Lifetime.

Of Course, he was also Muammar's 'Bag Man'

Marshall E Africa share price data here

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           12.25
Total Shares Issued:          14,393,106
Market Capitalization:        0M
EPS:             -11.80
PE:                 -1.038

read more

N.S.E Today

The Shilling was last trading at 89.80. The Last Time the Shilling was
below 90.00 was in Mid July.
January through October 11 the kenya Shilling was the world's worst
performing Currency versus The Dollar.
October 11 through today, it is the World's best performing versus The Dollar.
The Nairobi All Share eased 0.37 points to close at 70.92.
The NSE20 retreated 15.35 points to close at 3333.09.
Market Cap was 905.144b versus 909.86b.
Equity Turnover was 157.867m versus 151.052m and remains some ways
below the Volume Moving Averages.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Rea Vipingo firmed 2.105% to close at 19.40 and traded 9,400 shares.
Sasini Tea fell 4.69% to close at 13.20 on light trading of 10,500 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom closed unchanged at 2.90 with 1.359m shares traded. Since
Safaricom released its H1 Earnings, it has closed at 2.90 every
subsequent Session except for 1 when it closed at 2.95.

Kenya Airways bounced 2.604% to close at 19.70 and traded 32,700
shares. Kenya Airways closed at 5 successive 25 Month Lows last week
before now bouncing for 2 consecutive sessions.

TPS Serena was the biggest Gainer at the Bourse today rallying 7.46%
to close at 54.00 on 30,500 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Bank was the 2nd most actively traded Counter. Equity Bank
closed unchanged at 19.45 and traded a 19.05-19.65 range and 1.316m
shares worth 25.609m. Equity Bank has rallied 14.411% off a 19 Month
Closing low of 17.00 from 12th October.
CFC StanbIc traded 3rd at the Bourse. CFC Stanbic eased 1.12% to close
at 44.00 and traded 554,900 shares worth 24.415m. CFC StanBic has seen
some good two way action at this Price Point.
KCB eased 1.479% to close at 16.65 and traded 133,500 shares.
Barclays Bank eased 10 cents to close at 13.30 and traded 396,700 shares.
StanChart closed a shilling lighter at 178.00 and traded 3,700 shares.
COOP eased 5 cents to close at 13.90 and traded 270,300 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL was the most actively traded share at the Exchange today. EABL
eased 0.58% to close at 170.00 and traded 201,000 shares worth
34.171m. EABL had rallied 14% 25th October through this morning. EABL
is -11.318% in 2011 and the Downdraft is less than half of the Fall of
the NSE 20 in 2011. EABL has confirmed it will not be seeking any
Funds with respect to the Unwinding of the SABMiller Cross
Shareholding, which requires EABL to buy 20% of Kenya Breweries [a
stake currently held by SABMiller]. Seni Adetu CEO EABL is my Guest at
#Mindspeak this Saturday.

Mumias Sugar traded 4th. Mumias Sugar closed unchanged at 5.60 and
traded a 5.50-5.70 range and 3.61m shares worth 20.335m. Mumias Sugar
remains         -31.843% in 2011 and trades on a Trailing PE of 4.444.

KPLC fell 2.506% to close at 17.50 and traded 309,600 shares.
KenGen closed at 9.40 and traded 15,800 shares.

Athi River Mining traded 5th. ARM closed unchanged at 150.00 and
traded 55,600 shares worth 8.341m.
Bamburi Cement closed unchanged at 156.00 on just 300 shares.
Portland improved 50 cents to close at 58.00 and traded 700 shares.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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November 2011

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  aly khan says:
november 22nd, 2011 at 07:04 pm
Are #Arab economies on the road to ruin? #Aljazeera Inside Story
  aly khan says:
november 22nd, 2011 at 08:07 pm
Are Arab economies on the road to ruin? #Aljazeera Inside Story aired