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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 19th of September 2017
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
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18-SEP-2017 :: "A screaming comes across the sky" North Korea @TheStarKenya
Africa


When you look at geopolitical alignment, it is entirely unlikely that
the West has anything to offer the Chinese that can compensate them
for the loss of their hinterland, buffer and instrument of attack.

Macro Thoughts

read more












For whom the bell tolls a poem (No man is an island) by John Donne
Law & Politics


No man is an island,
Entire of itself.
Each is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thine own
Or of thine friend's were.
Each man's death diminishes me,
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.

read more







Mr. Mueller's team has used what some describe as shock-and-awe tactics
Law & Politics


“They are setting a tone. It’s important early on to strike terror in
the hearts of people in Washington, or else you will be rolled,” said
Solomon L. Wisenberg, who was deputy independent counsel in the
investigation that led to the impeachment trial of President Bill
Clinton in 1999. “You want people saying to themselves, ‘Man, I had
better tell these guys the truth.’”

“They seem to be pursuing this more aggressively, taking a much harder
line, than you’d expect to see in a typical white-collar case,” said
Jimmy Gurulé, a Notre Dame law professor and former federal
prosecutor. “This is more consistent with how you’d go after an
organized crime syndicate.”

read more



Theresa May denies she has 'lost control' of the Cabinet after Boris Johnson lays out Brexit manifesto
Law & Politics


Asked if, after Mr Johnson’s challenge, she was “truly in charge”, Ms
May replied: “This Government is driven from the front and we are all
going to the same destination

read more




Mattis hints at military options on North Korea but offers no details
Law & Politics


U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis hinted on Monday about the existence
of military options on North Korea that might spare Seoul from a
brutal counterattack but declined to say what kind of options he was
talking about or whether they involved the use of lethal force.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said on Sunday the
U.N. Security Council had run out of options on containing North
Korea’s nuclear program and that the United States might have to turn
the matter over to the Pentagon.

Any conflict on the Korean peninsula could easily result in a degree
of bloodshed unseen since the 1950-53 Korean War, which claimed the
lives of more than 50,000 Americans and millions of Koreans and ended
in an armed truce, not a peace treaty.

Seoul is within artillery range of North Korea, which beyond nuclear
and conventional weapons is also believed to have a sizable chemical
and biological arsenal.

Asked whether there were any military options the United States could
take with North Korea that would not put Seoul at grave risk, Mattis
said: “Yes there are. But I will not go into details.”

Pressed on whether that might include so-called “kinetic” options that
use lethal force, Mattis said: “I don’t want to go into that.”

read more


As World Watches Kim, China Quietly Builds South China Sea Clout
Law & Politics


As Kim Jong Un’s antics in North Korea capture global attention, China
is quietly moving to bolster its grip on disputed territory in the
South China Sea.

Last month, a Philippine lawmaker released photos he said showed
Chinese fishing, coast guard and navy vessels surrounding a
Philippine-occupied isle in the Spratly island chain, preventing
planned repairs to a runway. Vietnam in July halted drilling in an
area leased to Spain’s Repsol S.A, amid reports it did so under
Chinese duress.

The incidents suggest China is taking advantage of a perceived U.S.
vacuum on Southeast Asia under President Donald Trump, whose
administration has focused on Chinese trade tensions and North Korea’s
missile and nuclear tests.

While the U.S. is still doing what it calls "freedom of navigation"
naval operations in the South China Sea, testing China’s claims to
exclusive access -- it plans to conduct two to three such maneuvers in
the next few months, according to the Wall Street Journal -- and a
rear admiral publicly chiding Beijing for its behavior, the intensity
of its actions and statements on the waters has faded since Trump took
office.

read more






The pound's dramatic reversal of fortunes this month has left analysts racing to catch up.
International Trade


Strategists are revising their estimates for the currency after its
best week since 2009 saw it gain almost 3 percent as the Bank of
England signaled it would look to withdraw stimulus “over the coming
months.” Sterling touched $1.36 on Monday, while the median forecast
for the end of the fourth quarter lagged behind at $1.29.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.2003
Dollar Index 91.86
Japan Yen 111.71
Swiss Franc 0.9607
Pound 1.3527
Aussie 0.7985
India Rupee 64.175
South Korea Won 1131.24
Brazil Real 3.1364
Egypt Pound 17.6765
South Africa Rand 13.2750

read more








Tungsten prices have jumped 50 percent in the last two months
Commodities


The price of one of the most critical materials for the Western
world’s economy and defenses is spiking faster than any major
commodity.

Tungsten, used to harden steel in ballistic missiles and in drill
bits, has surged more than 50 percent in the last two months amid
growing concern about supply cutbacks in China, where about 80 percent
of the metal comes from. The country is clamping down on polluting
mines and enforcing production quotas.

The price of tungsten in Europe has jumped 52 percent since early
July, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. The advance has beaten all 22
major materials in the Bloomberg Commodities Index. Tungsten has
gained for six straight months, the longest rally since 2012.

read more


Iron Ore Nearing a Bear Market BBG
Commodities


As Australia’s biggest export earner, iron ore has significant sway
over the nation’s currency, with the pair moving largely in line over
the past five years. That means renewed signs of a glut in the
steelmaking ingredient are likely to weigh on the Australian dollar,
with options on the currency skewing further into bearish territory
last week as iron ore capped its first two-week retreat since the
start of June. The Aussie is currently hovering below 80 U.S. cents as
iron ore at Qingdao port, China, trades at its lowest level since July
28. This is after it slipped below its 50-day moving average --
usually a bearish sign.

read more


The MSCI Emerging Market Index's almost 30 percent surge in 2017 has left valuations at the most expensive level since the start of 2010
Emerging Markets


The MSCI Emerging Market Index’s almost 30 percent surge in 2017 has
left valuations at the most expensive level since the start of 2010

Frontier Markets

read more




@KPMG @McKinsey Feel the Heat as Graft Scandal Hits S. Africa
Africa


Eight top executives at KPMG’s South African office have quit, Bell
Pottinger has collapsed and McKinsey and SAP have suspended or put
staff on leave and initiated internal probes. Yet South African
authorities haven’t arrested or prosecuted anyone despite the nation’s
graft ombudsman and the local media highlighting numerous allegations
of wrongdoing.

The scandal’s most telling damage has been to the reputation of the
state, the presidency and the ruling African National Congress.

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +10.65% 2017
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.2750

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

President @MBuhari has arrived New York for the 72nd Session of
the @UN General Assembly #UNGA #UNGA72 📷: @BayoOmoboriowo

https://twitter.com/NGRPresident/status/909609508309229568

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +29.76% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +36.24% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


Kenya prepares to postpone repeat presidential vote @FT
Kenyan Economy


Kenya’s electoral commission is set to postpone the repeat
presidential election after the company providing the electronic voter
list and results transmission system said it would not be ready by
October 17, the planned date.

Andrew Limo, the commission spokesman, said: “We’re actively exploring
changing the date and unlike the August 8 election, which was set in
stone, this time we have some leeway.”

October 26 and 27 are dates being considered, Mr Limo said, adding
that an announcement was expected by Wednesday.

President Uhuru Kenyatta won the August 8 election against his
long-time rival, Raila Odinga, by 54 per cent to 45 per cent, or some
1.4m votes. But the Supreme Court nullified the result — the first
time in Africa — after Mr Odinga’s National Super Alliance (Nasa)
coalition appealed, citing widespread rigging, particularly in the
counting and tallying of votes.

Under Kenyan law the repeat ballot has to be held by the end of
October, 60 days after the judges’ initial ruling. The electoral
commission set October 17 as polling day after the government said a
vote in late October would interfere with school exams despite
objections from Nasa, which argued the commission would need more
preparation time.

But on Monday Mr Limo said it “should be possible” to hold the
election during the exam period. “Most schools we use for polling
stations are primary schools and they’re not doing exams,” he said.
“It’s only secondary schools and they’ll find a way [to hold the
exams].”

The about-turn comes after OT-Morpho, the French company supplying the
tablets for the 40,883 polling stations and the system to transmit the
results to the national tallying centre, told the commission it would
be “way too risky” to hold the vote on October 17.

Frederic Beylier, OT-Morpho’s chief operating officer, told the
Financial Times the company would “be able to fulfil our assignment by
the end of October”, provided there are “no technical changes” beyond
altering the number of candidates to only Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga
from the eight on the August 8 ballot.

Oliver Charlanes, OT-Morpho’s Africa director, said the extensive time
required was owing in large part to the need to preserve the data on
the tablets’ memory cards because the company is facing legal action
from Nasa and is expecting the electoral commission to conduct an
external audit of the data.

“What we would have done in different circumstances is reuse [what we
have],” he said. “But considering . . . the external audit, we need to
keep the data.”

Nasa has alleged that OT-Morpho was party to the rigging and has asked
the French government to take action against the company.

But Mr Charlanes insisted the company was innocent and that there had
been “no hacking, no intrusions or deletion of any data” on the
systems OT-Morpho was responsible for. “What we don’t want is to be a
scapegoat of this election,” he said.

Mr Beylier said OT-Morpho has initiated legal proceedings over the
“false allegations” but declined to say against whom. He also said his
staff in Kenya were facing “very serious” threats, mostly via social
media.

Mr Odinga has threatened to boycott the repeat election unless a dozen
senior members of the electoral commission Nasa believes perpetrated
the rigging are fired and prosecuted.

Wafula Chebukati, the commission chairman, has said he will make
changes to “personal and processes” but only after the supreme court
delivers its full verdict explaining the “illegalities and
irregularities” in the conduct of the election. By law, the judges
must publish this by September 22.

Conclusions


The Opposition will lose more heavily 2nd time around [poor funding =
poor mobilisation] and therefore the risk is that they boycott the
Election entirely.

read more


04-SEP-2017 :: Supreme Court of Kenya's 4-2 decision to annul the election was an unprecedented move in Africa and the first time on the continent that a court ruled against the electoral victory of an incumbent.
Kenyan Economy


Given the damning nature of the verdict with respect to the IEBC (The
court ruled that it had “failed, neglected or refused to conduct the
presidential election in a manner consistent with the dictates of the
constitution”), its unclear to me how the 60 day deadline is met.

read more



Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +21.52% 2017

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

162.03 -2.46 -1.50%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +18.66% 2017

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,780.61 -3.37 -0.09%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


Last week was sterling's best week since Jan 2009 and its 4th best in 40 years.
The Dow posted its 5th straight record close ahead of today and
tomorrow's Fed meeting
BITCOIN which has been all over the place of late topped $4,000 again.
WTI Crude Oil Recorded a 4-Month High at $50.84
The MSCI Emerging Market Index’s almost 30 percent surge in 2017 has
left valuations at the most expensive level since the start of 2010
Eight top executives at KPMG’s South African office have quit, Bell
Pottinger has collapsed and McKinsey and SAP have suspended or put
staff on leave and initiated internal probes. Yet South African
authorities haven’t arrested or prosecuted anyone despite the nation’s
graft ombudsman and the local media highlighting numerous allegations
of wrongdoing.
The Point is this that once Africa was a faraway place and today
activities on the Frontier can create significant blowback for MNCs
The Equity Market saw lacklustre activity for the 2nd session in a row
as Traders await the Supreme Court Ruling.
The least optimal outcome for the market would be an Opposition
boycott of the Election.
The Nairobi All Share rebounded 1.91 points to close at 163.94.
The Nairobi NSE20 edged +4.30 points higher to close at 3784.91.
Equity Turnover was 583,388m following on from the previous sessions
201.941m figure.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom predictably rebounded +3.092% to close at 25.00 and was
trading 25.25 +4.12% at the finish line. Safaricom traded 12.374m
shares worth 310.96m [some 53.912% of the volume traded today at the
Exchange]. I stand by my 32.00 Year End Target which represents a
+26.73% target return between now and the End of the Year.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


KCB Group firmed +0.59% to close at 42.00 and was trading session
highs of 42.50 +1.8% at the Finish Line. KCB reported a 0.546% decline
in H1 Profit before tax and exceptional items, which was ahead of its
Peer Group.

Centum closed unchanged at 41.00 and traded 720,100 shares. Centum
reported a -16.46% decline in FY Profit after tax but trades on a very
undemanding PE of 3.751.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


KenGen eased -0.53% to close at 9.30 and traded 1.256m shares. I had
the opportunity to interview the Acting MD Rebecca Miano [whom I
expect to be confirmed] and I was impressed all ends up. I expect
Rebecca to protect Shareholders' +64.6% price gains this year which is
close to 3x versus the benchmark Nairobi All Share over the same
period.

KenolKobil ticked +0.3% firmer to close at 16.55 and traded 1.317m
shares. I had an opportunity to listen to the MD David Ohana at the
Renaissance Capital Investor Briefing and he was compelling on the
prospects of KenolKobil but not so confident about when Kenya Inc.
would be digging its Oil out of the ground.

Mumias Sugar was high ticked +4.76% to close at 1.10 on trading worth
a round $1,000,00.

EABL firmed +1.606% to close at 253.00 and traded 14,700 shares.

ARM Cement rebounded +2.65% off a 8 and 1/2 year low to close at 13.55.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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September 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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