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Thursday 21st of November 2019 |
VII. The Sea The Sea Shell William Wordsworth (1770-1850) From "The Excursion," Book IV Africa |
I HAVE seen A curious child, who dwelt upon a tract Of inland ground, applying to his ear The convolutions of a smooth-lipped shell; To which, in silence hushed, his very soul 5 Listened intensely; and his countenance soon Brightened with joy; for from within were heard Murmurings, whereby the monitor expressed Mysterious union with its native sea. Even such a shell the universe itself 10 Is to the ear of Faith; and there are times, I doubt not, when to you it doth impart Authentic tidings of invisible things; Of ebb and flow, and ever-during power; And central peace, subsisting at the heart 15 Of endless agitation.
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Here we go round the prickly pear Africa |
Here we go round the prickly pear Prickly pear prickly pear Here we go round the prickly pear At five o’clock in the morning.
This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a whimper.
The Hollow Men T.S. ELIOT
Political Reflections
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04-NOV-2019 :: @Potus currently undergoing an impeachment process at the hands of "Nervous" @SpeakerPelosi [his moniker which probably is a linguistic transference of a sort] Law & Politics |
Pollice verso or verso pollice is a Latin phrase, meaning “with a turned thumb”, that is used in the context of gladiatorial combat. It refers to the hand gesture or thumb signal used by Ancient Roman crowds to pass judgment on a defeated gladiator. The Madison Square UFC 244 verso pollice moment is a Shakespeare level moment for President Trump and of more import than the Impeachment process because Impeachment is political and therefore the outcome should split on Political Party lines. The Republican Party will be making a hard nosed political calculation this weekend that if the President is getting booed at a UFC event, the Base is lost. Vice President Pence who is an evangelical Christian [and is in the habit of praying with another evangelical Christian and Nobel Prize Winner far away in Addis Ababa, allegedly] is the coming Man and this could happen real quick.
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26-AUG-2019 :: China Strikes at Trump Law & Politics |
@IvanTheK put it pithily and tweeted ‘’CHINA TO THE CHOSEN ONE: GFY’’ The Stock Markets fell sharply. The overarching Question Investors need to ask themselves is this Is this a permanent rupture? Or is this a crazy off the charts escalation just before a Deal? The Markets pirouette on the answer to this question.
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27-MAY-2019 :: China vs. US War Ballistic Law & Politics |
The point being in the trade war Trump is no longer the decider. In the US, there is clearly a consensus baseline for a full-on toe to toe slugfest as it were. In China, however, there is only one decider who was pronounced as much by Xinhua in a historical announcement in March 2018. Xi reckons he can direct a successful, society-wide struggle in the trade dispute’’ Notwithstanding all the hyperbole and very partisan commentary, the following are the plain Truths. The Markets are still pricing in a benign [but much less benign than a month ago] Outcome. We need to consider what a non-benign or even maximum non-benign outcome looks like.
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Xi Jinping specifically speak of "The End of Vanity" Law & Politics |
I only recently discovered Ecclesiastes and clearly Xi was ahead of me in this regard. Ecclesiastes 1:2-11 2 Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher 2 Vani- ty[a] of vanities, says the Preacher, vanity of vanities! All is vanity. 11 There is no remembrance of former things,[c] nor will there be any re- membrance of later things[d] yet to be among those who come after.
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13-AUG-2019 :: The Feedback Loop Phenomenon Emerging Markets |
China has exerted the power of pull over a vast swathe of the world over the last two decades. We can call it the China, Asia, EM and Frontier markets feedback loop. This feedback loop has been largely a positive one for the last two decades. With the Yuan now in retreat [and in a precise response to Trump], this will surely exert serious downside pressure on those countries in the Feed- back Loop. The Purest Proxy for the China, Asia, EM and Frontier markets feedback loop phenomenon is the South African Rand aka the ZAR.
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Yields Past 100% Just Put Lebanon Debt Into Venezuela Territory @markets @PaulWallace123 Emerging Markets |
The political crisis in Lebanon has sent the yields on some of its dollar bonds into triple digits. Rates on the government’s $1.2 billion of notes maturing in March next year climbed 15 percentage points on Tuesday to 103%. They were at 13% five weeks ago, just before the start of nationwide protests that led to the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and exacerbated the nation’s economic strife. With Lebanon viewed by many bond traders as a default waiting to happen, cash prices have become more important than yields as they factor in potential recovery rates. That’s inverted the government’s curve and distorted yields at the shorter end. The price of Lebanon’s 2020 debt is 78 cents on the dollar, while that of its April 2021 securities is 56 cents. Still, it’s rare for a nation’s dollar yields to reach triple figures. Even in Argentina -- where investors are far from convinced that the incoming leader Alberto Fernandez can fix the country’s economic woes -- they haven’t gone far beyond 85%. Some of Venezuela’s short term-term bonds reached 100% around the time it defaulted in late 2017. Lebanon, one of the world’s most indebted nations relative to the size of its economy, has consistently said it will honor its liabilities and has downplayed any talk of a restructuring. The country has never defaulted on its government debt, most of which is held by local banks. According to central bank Governor Riad Salameh, Lebanon has the money to repay $1.5 billion of securities maturing at the end of this month. The next Eurobonds after that come due in March 2020.
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Bank of Zambia Raises Key Interest Rate to Curb Inflation @economics Africa |
Zambia’s central bank raised its key interest rate for a second time this year, bucking a global easing trend, in a bid to support its currency and tame inflation. The Bank of Zambia increased the rate to 11.5% from 10.25%, Governor Denny Kalyalya told reporters Wednesday in Lusaka, the capital. That’s the highest level since May 2017. Key Insights The central bank faces a trade-off between stabilizing the kwacha to help control inflation and boosting an economy that expanded at the slowest since least the first quarter of 2016 in the three months through June. Inflation accelerated to 10.7% in October, the highest level in three years, as the worst drought in almost four decades in the southwest of the country caused crop failure. Kalyalya said while the MPC was mindful of the slowdown in economic growth, the upside risks to inflation have increased and there is a need to restore macro-economic stability. The central bank sees the rate staying above the 8% upper end of its target range until at least 2021. The lack of rain also drastically curbed output at the hydropower dams that Zambia relies on for about 80% of its electricity generation, and the resultant power cuts that last more than 15 hours a day are weighing on the economy. The electricity cuts also mean that many businesses run on generators, increasing their input costs because the kwacha’s 18% drop against the dollar this year has pushed up fuel prices. The nation’s power utility has asked the energy regulator to allow it to more than double prices, which will add to inflationary pressure. The Energy Regulation Board said it would announce new energy tariffs this month
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"keep the tango dancing, as we say. Let's see where it will go. I don't see it going now, but just keep tango dancing with these guys and let's see where it will go." @business Africa |
During his second day on the stand, Jean Boustani told the federal jury in Brooklyn, New York, that when a Mozambican demanded a $50 million “success fee” to get approval for a maritime project, he immediately notified his boss, French-Lebanese billionaire Iskandar Safa, the co-owner of Privinvest. Safa was appalled, Boustani said. “Mr. Safa said ‘Jean, look, I’ve never seen this in my life,’” Boustani said. “He said ‘I hope you will be successful in this, for the company, for you, but I don’t see this going far with such an attitude, but look, keep the tango dancing, as we say. Let’s see where it will go. I don’t see it going now, but just keep tango dancing with these guys and let’s see where it will go.’” Boustani denied paying any bribes or kickbacks to either Mozambican officials or bankers. During the trial, former Credit Suisse bankers Andrew Pearse and Surjan Singh told jurors that Privinvest paid them tens of millions of dollars to help arrange loans for three coastal projects that eventually swelled to $2 billion. Pearse testified Boustani paid him $45 million. Pearse testified Ndambi Guebuza, the son of Mozambique’s former president, collected at least $50 million in illegal payments for helping introduce Privinvest executives to his father. But Boustani said that during a personal audience with then-President Armando Guebuza and his son in early 2013, he told the president a Mozambican man had asked for a $50 million bribe, stunning the country’s leader. “The president was frozen, then he looked at his son,” Boustani recounted. Then he quoted the president’s response: “Mr. Boustani, you are talking about big strategic projects. My answer to your question is simple: nobody, nobody, not me, not any public official in Mozambique will be allowed to take one penny in order to do their job for this project. You say no and you come to me and you tell them ‘no.’ I said, sorry but I had to do it.”
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Kenya raises 66 bln shillings from state corporations for budget @ReutersAfrica Africa |
Kenya’s Treasury has raised 66 billion shillings ($650.89 million) out of a target of 78 billion in dividends and retained earnings from state corporations, the acting finance minister said on Wednesday. Ukur Yatani said state companies had not been remitting their dividends at the end of every financial year as required by law, denying domestic reports that the move to take the cash would starve the banking sector of liquidity. “These are just surplus funds. Their operational accounts and all other matters have not been touched,” he told Reuters, adding that the extra cash would be spent on development projects.
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"No bank wants to finance you any more especially if you have a contract from the government," said one small business owner who spoke on condition of anonymity @ReutersAfrica Africa |
A second supplier said: “You get disrupted in the middle of (the contract) ...either because you are not speaking to the right people, making commitments to the right people, or your payments may just be delayed.” George Muiruri, managing director of Leakey’s auctioneers, says repossessions among government suppliers had increased. “They are financially stuck,” he said, adding he was dealing with at least one such case every day. Central bank governor Patrick Njoroge said in late May that delayed payments to suppliers, the bulk contracted by the government, made up 10 percent of the total volume of bad loans. Such loans stood at 12.4 percent of the total in April, the highest level in more than a decade.
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