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Monday 23rd of March 2020 |
For whom the bell tolls a poem (No man is an island) by John Donne Africa |
No man is an island, Entire of itself. Each is a piece of the continent, A part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less. As well as if a promontory were. As well as if a manor of thine own Or of thine friend's were. Each man's death diminishes me, For I am involved in mankind. Therefore, send not to know For whom the bell tolls, It tolls for thee.
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The Decline and Fall of the Gulf's Oil Empire Is Looming @markets @bopinion Law & Politics |
For much of the world, oil wealth is a curse. Endowed with ample reserves of hydrocarbons, the likes of Nigeria, Angola, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Venezuela frittered the benefits away. Only in the Persian Gulf has oil been a nation-building blessing. The discoveries of petroleum in the mid-20th century turned an anarchic, desperately poor region into one of the most affluent places on the planet. Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are all richer than Switzerland. Even Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman are on a par with Japan or the U.K. The transformation has been so complete that it’s easy to believe the wealth derives from some eternal law of nature. That’s not true, though. The current price war in oil markets will only hasten the moment when the unsustainable nature of Gulf economies faces a brutal reckoning. Right now, all six monarchies are joining with Russia in opening the taps to flood the crude market and flush out higher-cost producers. While the planned 2.5 million barrels per day increase from Saudi Arabia is by far the biggest wave in this tsunami, its neighbors aren’t holding back. The U.A.E. will daily add about 200,000 barrels or more, according to consultancy Rystad Energy, while Kuwait will lift output by 110,000 barrels. Russia will raise daily production by 200,000 barrels. That splurge of supply isn’t due to geopolitics. Instead, it’s a mathematical result of the decline in the oil price. With fewer dollars coming in for each barrel of crude, Gulf monarchies need to pump much more to maintain something resembling current revenues. In principle, there’s ample firepower to fight this war. It costs about as much to pump a barrel of oil from a Gulf oilfield as it does to buy a bottle of fancy mineral water. Even in an extreme scenario where crude prices fall as low as $10 a barrel and almost the entire global oil industry loses money, Gulf producers would remain in the black. The problem, as we wrote last week, comes for their economies, which need a far higher price to balance their budgets and support dollar-linked currencies. The region’s central banks and sovereign wealth funds have assembled vast sums to see them through such a crisis, as well as the longer-term risk of declining demand. Faced with lower prices, however, these buffers could disintegrate quickly. Take the net financial assets held by Saudi Arabia’s government — central bank reserves, plus sovereign wealth fund assets, minus government debt. These declined to just 0.1% of gross domestic product from 50% over the four years through 2018 as crude plunged from levels of around $100 a barrel at the end of 2014. The kingdom is now likely to be a net debtor for the foreseeable future, even if prices rise back above $80. Over the same four years, net financial assets held by the six Gulf monarchies fell by around half a trillion dollars, to around $2 trillion, according to a study last month by the International Monetary Fund. Even if peak oil demand doesn’t hit until 2040, that remaining sum could be depleted by 2034, according to the Fund. Oil at $20 a barrel would run it down even faster, emptying the coffers as soon as 2027. With oil prices in the range of $50 to $55 a barrel, Saudi Arabia’s international reserves would fall to about five months of import coverage as soon as 2024, according to an IMF report last year. That should be a deeply alarming prospect, bringing the kingdom within months of an unthinkable balance-of-payments crisis and the abandonment of the dollar peg, which has underpinned the global oil trade for a generation. Yet the prices we’re now seeing make this look almost like an optimistic scenario. There’s still time to avert this future, but it will involve major changes to our ideas about the Gulf and its the role in the global economy. Governments in the region enacted vicious budget cuts in the wake of the 2014 price decline, removing subsidies and adding sales taxes in a way that’s fraying the edges of their sumptuous welfare states. If they fall to an even-lower ledge, there will be pressure to add further taxes and shrink bloated civil services. Neither will be popular with citizens who have never been allowed a democratic vote. Lavish defense and security spending, which accounts for nearly a third of Saudi Arabia’s budget, may have to shrink. The era when the Gulf nations and their sovereign wealth funds were magic cash machines prepared to pay top dollar for assets on every continent may be coming to an end. They may even have to turn into net sellers. That will affect institutions from the U.S. Treasury market, where Saudi Arabia holds about $183 billion of securities; to Softbank Group Corp., which may find Riyadh a less generous partner for funding Masayoshi Son’s expansive visions. The monarchies have surfed a remarkable tide of wealth over the past half-century or so, but every wave eventually crashes. Future generations will never again see the wealth that current subjects enjoy. Perhaps the Gulf wasn’t spared from oil’s curse, after all. That moment was only deferred.
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"Oil creates the illusion of a completely changed life, life without work, life for free. Oil is a resource that anaesthetises thought, blurs vision, corrupts." Ryszard Kapuscinski, Shah of Shahs Law & Politics |
“Oil kindles extraordinary emotions and hopes, since oil is above all a great temptation. It is the temptation of ease, wealth, strength, fortune, power. It is a filthy, foul-smelling liquid that squirts obligingly up into the air and falls back to earth as a rustling shower of money.” ― Ryszard Kapuściński, Shah of Shahs
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13 NOV 17 :: a 32-year-old wannabe king Africa |
In all the history books I have read, its probably wisest to operate on one front not two and certainly not three. The desperate impulse to act is also up against a four- year deadline. The speed of decline in FX reserves produces a 48 month shelf-life.
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@washingtonpost US intelligence warned Trump in January and February as he dismissed coronavirus threat @CNN Law & Politics |
(CNN)President Donald Trump ignored reports from US intelligence agencies starting in January that warned of the scale and intensity of the coronavirus outbreak in China, The Washington Post reported Friday. Citing US officials familiar with the agencies' reports and warnings, the Post reported that intelligence agencies depicted the nature and global spread of the virus and China's apparent downplaying of its severity, as well as the potential need for government measures to contain it -- while Trump opted to dismiss or simply not address their seriousness. "Donald Trump may not have been expecting this, but a lot of other people in the government were -- they just couldn't get him to do anything about it," the official noted to the Post. "The system was blinking red." The CIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment to the Post. When asked for comment on the report, White House spokesperson Judd Deere directed CNN to fellow spokesperson Hogan Gidley's comment to the Post. "President Trump has taken historic, aggressive measures to protect the health, wealth and safety of the American people -- and did so, while the media and Democrats chose to only focus on the stupid politics of a sham illegitimate impeachment," Gidley told the paper in a statement. "It's more than disgusting, despicable and disgraceful for cowardly unnamed sources to attempt to rewrite history -- it's a clear threat to this great country." A source familiar told CNN that the congressional intelligence committees were briefed on the threat coronavirus posed in January and February. The intelligence reports did not predict when the virus might hit the US or recommend steps that should be taken in response, the source said. The reports tracked the spread of the virus in China and then other countries, and warned that Chinese officials were minimizing the impact. Within the administration, Trump's aides tried in vain to convince him of the virus's seriousness, according to the Post. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar was unable to discuss the virus with Trump until January 18, two senior administration officials told the Post -- at which point the President interrupted him to ask when sales of flavored vaping products would resume, senior administration officials told the paper. Later in January, aides met with then-acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney in an effort to convince higher level officials to monitor the virus -- with White House Domestic Policy Council Director Joe Grogan asserting that if the White House did not seriously address the virus, an issue likely to be front and center for months, Trump could risk losing his reelection, people briefed on the meeting told the Post. Mulvaney subsequently held regular meetings, though officials told the paper that Trump did not take the virus seriously because he did not think it had circulated extensively in the United States. The President also seemed to deny the virus's threat in favor of believing information provided by Chinese President Xi Jinping, the paper reported. Administration officials told the Post that even after some of his advisers insisted that China was providing inaccurate data on infection and death rates from the disease, Trump publicly praised China's handling of the coronavirus in late January. In a February meeting, Trump argued that if he put more pressure on Xi, Beijing would be less likely to share how it was handling the outbreak. Even when cases reached the US, Trump opposed characterizing the virus as a serious threat, the paper reported. Two senior administration officials told the paper that while returning from India, Trump complained that senior Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official Nancy Messonnier was frightening investors with her assessment in late February that changes to normal life could be "severe" in light of serious spread.
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Call @realDonaldTrump's News Conferences What They are: Propaganda @nytopinion Law & Politics |
In a time of global emergency, we need calm, directness and, above all, hard facts. Only the opposite is on offer from the Trump White House. It is therefore time to call the president’s news conferences for what they are: propaganda. We may as well be watching newsreels approved by the Soviet Politburo. We’re witnessing the falsification of history in real time. When Donald Trump, under the guise of social distancing, told the White House press corps on Thursday that he ought to get rid of 75 to 80 percent of them — reserving the privilege only for those he liked — it may have been chilling, but it wasn’t surprising. He wants to thin out their ranks until there’s only Pravda in the room. Sometimes, I stare at Deborah Birx during these briefings and I wonder if she understands that this is the footage historians will be looking at 100 years from now — the president rambling on incoherently, vainly, angrily, deceitfully, while she watches, her face stiff with the strangled horror of a bride enduring an inappropriate toast. If the public wants factual news briefings, they need to tune in to those who are giving them: Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, whose addresses appear with English subtitles on Deutsche Welle. They should start following the many civic-minded epidemiologists and virologists and contagion experts on Twitter, like Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch and Yale’s Nicholas Christakis, whose threads have been invaluable primers in a time of awful confusion. These are people with a high tolerance for uncertainty. It’s the president’s incapacity to tolerate it — combined with his bottomless need to self-flatter and preserve his political power — that leads, so often, to his spectacular fits of deception and misdirection. At his Thursday news conference, a discussion of chloroquine and other experimental therapies formed the core of his remarks, when those drugs and therapies are untested and unproven and, in some cases, won’t be ready for several months, as NBC’s Peter Alexander pointed out the following day. “What do you say to Americans who are scared?” Alexander pressed. “I say that you’re a terrible reporter,” Trump answered. Only a liar — and a weak man with delusions of competence — would be so unnerved by the facts. Compare this to Cuomo, who takes questions at his news conferences calmly and systematically — and, more to the point, has a substantive response when asked the same questions about anxiety. He hears it. He relates to it. He says it’s real. “People are in a small apartment, they’re in a house, they’re worried, they’re anxious. Just, be mindful of that,” the governor said Friday. “Those three-word sentences can make all the difference: ‘I miss you.’ ‘I love you.’ ‘I’m thinking about you.’ ‘I wish I was there with you.’ ‘I’m sorry you’re going through this.’ ‘I’m sorry we’re going through this.’” On Friday, Cuomo said something else that was quite striking, as he was issuing his executive order for nonessential workers in New York to stay home, other than to run errands or exercise outside. “If someone wants to blame someone or complain about someone, blame me,” he said. “There is no one else who is responsible for this decision.” Cuomo is nothing if not politically shrewd. He knows full well how this comment compares to Mr. Trump’s “I don’t take responsibility at all.” But telling the media that they’re peddling fake news is straight from the playbook of the political gangsters of the last century. So many of Trump’s moves are. Having each of his cabinet members fulsomely thank him for his leadership and congratulate him for his “farsightedness” before each of their remarks: Check. Making sure each one stays on a message, even if that message has nothing to do with his or her purview: Check. (Alex Azar may have been the worst offender, speaking Friday to the urgency of closing the southern border. He’s the secretary of health and human services, not homeland security. Yet he was parroting Trump’s message about the coronavirus, one specifically tailored to the base: We’re keeping brown immigrants from spreading it.) How about Orwellian doublespeak? Ooooooh, check. Trump and his team are continually deploying words and phrases that disguise a reality that suggests the opposite. Vice President Mike Pence talks about a “strong and seamless” partnership with the states, when at the same time Mr. Trump is trolling the states, telling Cuomo to get his own respirators. Pence speaks relentlessly of a “whole-of-government approach,” when in fact the government is hollowed out — defunded to fight pandemics, denuded of experts — and broken in shards, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sidelined in this fight, and the president’s task force now mutely competing with a shadow group run by the president’s son-in-law. On Friday, Trump said he cherished journalism, and his secretary of state complained about disinformation on Twitter. There are simply too many two-plus-two-is-five moments to count. But most dangerous of all is Trump’s insistence that things are fine, or will be shortly, that they’ll be stronger and better and greater than ever. We don’t have any evidence that this is true, and the president finds any suggestion to the contrary quite rude. When a journalist pointed out to him on Thursday that the economy had all but ground to halt, Trump cut him off. “What’s the rest of your question?” he snapped. “We know that. Everybody in the room knows that.” Here’s the truth: Things might be hard — unfathomably hard — for months, perhaps even north of a year. Anyone who’s reading or listening to other sources of news besides the president knows that. It takes sensitivity and strength and intelligence to speak truthfully to the public about imminent hardship, the prospect of enduring pain. So I listen to Justin Trudeau, a sci-fi experience, a dispatch from an alternate universe that prioritizes the needs and anxieties of the middle class. He speaks about concerns: The kids will be all right. There’ll be food. You won’t be booted out of your home. Not how our president is speaking right now, but it’s a road map for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2020 to follow. And I listen to Cuomo, who says the same thing. His news conference on Friday was about the practical things, knowing the entire state — country, globe — had just taken a precipitous slide down Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, with food, shelter and safety now topmost on many people’s minds. No one can evict you for 90 days. We’re getting hospital beds. We’re recruiting doctors and nurses in training to fight this fight, and we’re coaxing medical professionals out of retirement. Then he spoke from the heart. One of his daughters was in quarantine. “To tell you the truth, I had some of the best conversations with her that I’ve ever had,” Cuomo said. She was alone for two weeks. “We talked about things in depth that we didn’t have time to talk about in the past,” he continued, “or we didn’t have the courage or the strength to talk about in the past — feelings I had, about mistakes I had made along the way that I wanted to express my regret and talk through with her.” He was expressing fallibility. Imagine that.
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The Hollow Men Mistah Kurtz - he dead Law & Politics |
The Hollow Men
Mistah Kurtz — he dead
A penny for the Old Guy
We are the hollow men We are the stuffed men Leaning together Headpiece filled with straw. Alas! Our dried voices, when We whisper together Are quiet and meaningless As wind in dry grass Or rats’ feet over broken glass In our dry cellar
Shape without form, shade without colour, Paralysed force, gesture without motion;
Those who have crossed With direct eyes, to death’s other Kingdom Remember us — if at all — not as lost Violent souls, but only As the hollow men The stuffed men.
Here we go round the prickly pear Prickly pear prickly pear Here we go round the prickly pear At five o’clock in the morning.
Between the idea And the reality Between the motion And the act Falls the Shadow For Thine is the Kingdom
Between the conception And the creation Between the emotion And the response Falls the Shadow Life is very long
Between the desire And the spasm Between the potency And the existence Between the essence And the descent Falls the Shadow For Thine is the Kingdom
For Thine is Life is For Thine is the
This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a whimper.
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how many #WuhanVirus cases #Wuhan city had on March 14 & the number is 22 times the official numbers, 91 cases instead of the official 4. @EpochTimes Law & Politics |
首頁 > 新聞 > 大陸新聞 > 天災人禍 > 正文 【獨家】武漢新增確診是中共公布的22倍
圖為武漢市衛健委收到的3月14日全市「新型冠狀病毒核酸檢測匯總統計表」。數據顯示,武漢市單日核酸檢測首次陽性數(實際新增確診)91例,比當天「官方」發表的新增確診數至少多出22倍。(大紀元) 更新 2020-03-20 6:34 AM 人氣 9988 標籤: 武漢肺炎, 新冠肺炎, 中共病毒, 核酸檢測 Facebook Twitter Line 複製鏈接 Print 【字號】 大 中 小 【大紀元2020年03月19日訊】(大紀元記者何堅報導)儘管中共展開大外宣,宣稱國內中共肺炎(武漢肺炎)疫情大消退,人民日報還發出「五個零」的最新疫情宣傳畫。但大紀元獲得的疫情始發地武漢市的核酸檢測數據顯示,疫情依然凶猛,武漢市當天的實際新增確診病例數,比「官方公布數據」至少多出22倍;而且,出院病人仍具傳染性,居家隔離中可能感染家人。
武漢實際新增病例 比「官方公布數據」至少多出22倍
大紀元新近獲得,武漢市衛健委收到的3月14日當天全市「新型冠狀病毒核酸檢測信息日報」以及各區統計匯總表。武漢市衛健委的核酸檢測文件顯示,當日全市核酸檢驗總樣本數16,320個;其中,檢測樣本陽性數373個,而核酸檢測首次陽性數有91個。
「中共病毒」又名「COVID-19病毒」或SARS-CoV-2(俗稱新冠病毒),其當日核酸檢測樣本陽性數,是當天驗出的已經感染的數量。由於其中包含部分住院病患重新檢測的樣本,所以檢測首次陽性數,才是新增加的確診病例。
2月21日武漢市衛健委已宣布「存量清零!核酸檢測日清日結」,意指武漢全市臨床確診、疑似、密切接觸者、發熱患者的核酸檢測存量已全面清零,2月22日開始實現檢測日清日結。
The picture shows the "Statistical Summary of New Coronavirus Nucleic Acid Detection" received by the Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Commission on March 14. The data show that the number of first positive nucleic acid tests (the actual number of newly confirmed diagnoses) in a single day in Wuhan was 91, which was at least 22 times more than the number of newly confirmed diagnoses published on the same day. (The Epoch Times) Although the Communist Party of China announced a major outbreak of the Chinese Communist Party's pneumonia (Wuhan pneumonia) epidemic, the People's Daily also issued the latest five outbreaks. Propaganda poster. However, the nucleic acid test data from the city of origin of the epidemic in Wuhan shows that the epidemic is still fierce. The actual number of newly confirmed cases in Wuhan on the day was at least 22 times more than the "officially released data"; Infectious, may infect family members in home isolation. The actual number of new cases in Wuhan is at least 22 times greater than the "official data" The number of positive nucleic acid test samples on that day is the number of infections detected on that day. Because it contains re-tested samples of some hospitalized patients, the number of positive tests for the first time is the newly added confirmed case. On February 21, the Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Committee has announced that "the inventory is cleared! The nucleic acid test is cleared daily", which means that the nucleic acid test inventory of clinically confirmed, suspected, close contacts, and fever patients in Wuhan has been completely cleared. The inspection day will be cleared and the day will end. Therefore, the nucleic acid tests performed on March 14 were all samples taken the previous day. Among them, 91 were positive for the first time, representing 91 new diagnoses that day. In the official outbreak data released by the Communist Party of China from March 14th to 16th, the newly confirmed cases in Wuhan were 4 cases, 4 cases, and 1 case respectively. That is to say, within three days from March 14, the CCP issued a maximum of 4 new cases in Wuhan in a single day.
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Buy Gold 'Right Here and Now,' Top Wealth Manager Says After Dip @markets Commodities |
Now’s the time to buy gold, according to one of the world’s leading wealth managers, which flagged bullion’s prospects after the haven lost out to the dollar in recent weeks as the pandemic roils markets. “When I think about what would I buy in the right here and now, I would be buying gold,” Wayne Gordon, executive director for commodities and foreign exchange at UBS Group AG’s wealth-management unit, told Bloomberg TV. Prices would appreciate over three to six months, according to Gordon. Bullion is set for back-to-back weekly losses for the first time since September after the dollar hit a record, although its drop was pared Friday as investors took stock of the outlook for the global economy, the spread of the disease, and looser monetarty policy. With deep losses in risk assets this month, some investors have been forced to sell gold to raise cash. A similar pattern -- losses at times of extreme market stress -- was seen in bullion at the onset of the global financial crisis in late 2008, before it went on to peak in 2011. Gold “provided what it should during times of crisis, a form of insurance to cash in when liquidity was required,” Peter Grosskopf, chief executive officer at Sprott Inc., said in a note, referring to recent moves. It’s one of the first assets to be cashed in when leverage is reduced, and long-term investors not subject to margin pressures will be rewarded owning gold at this time, he said. Gold traded 1.6% higher at $1,484.86 an ounce at 6:32 a.m. in London as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell after an eight-day rally. The metal is down 2.3% this week after an 8.6% fall last week, the most since 1983. Earlier this month, it topped $1,700 to hit the highest level since 2012. Given additional quantitative easing from central banks “you should see a weaker dollar over the next 12 months,” Gordon said. “On the back of that, you’ll see real rates go back into negative territory,” he said, adding: “That will be a potent power for gold.”
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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA. Africa |
The First Issue is whether The #CoronaVirus will infect the Continent. We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!
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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word. Africa |
The First Issue is whether The #CoronaVirus will infect the Continent We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative. what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!
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Debt, virus and locusts create a perfect storm for Africa @TheAfricaReport Africa |
The year began with promise for sub-Saharan Africa. All the major institutions tracking African growth said so: The African Development Bank pronounced in its Economic Outlook that Africa’s economic outlook continues to brighten. Its real GDP growth, estimated at 3.4% for 2019, is projected to accelerate to 3.9% in 2020 and to 4.1% in 2021. The IMF said in its World Economic Outlook sub-Saharan Africa growth is expected to strengthen to 3.5% in 2020–21 (from 3.3% in 2019). The World Bank predicted ”Regional growth is expected to pick up to 2.9% in 2020” Interestingly the World Bank added a caveat which was prescient: A sharper-than-expected deceleration in major trading partners such as China, the Euro Area, or the United States, would substantially lower export revenues and investment. A faster-than-expected slowdown in China would cause a sharp fall in commodity prices and, given Sub-Saharan Africa’s heavy reliance on extractive sectors for export and fiscal revenues, weigh heavily on regional activity. Those forecasts are now defunct and it’s only March. The Coronavirus has to date barely made landfall on the African continent with only 5 countries reporting infections but a Virus is in its essence non-linear, exponential and multiplicative and it would be a Shakespeare-level moment of hubris if policy makers were to pat themselves on the back. Diagnostic kits were only recently availed and if South Korea had tested the same number of People as the entire African Continent, they too would be reporting single digit cases. We all know now ”what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing … then cluster, cluster, cluster … then BOOM!” and therefore we will know soon whether we really have dodged the #Coronavirus Infection Bullet. The issue at hand now is around the violence of the blowback from the China #Coronavirus feedback loop phenomenon. The virus is not correlated to endogenous market dynamics but is an an exogenous uncertainty that remains unresolved and therefore, it is a ”Black Swan”. Fantasy predictions of a V shaped recovery in China have been dashed. In fact China cannot just crank up the ‘Factory’ because that will risk a second round effect of infections. Therefore, I expect negative GDP Growth through H1 2020 in China as my base case. Standard Bank’s Chief Economist has calculated that a one percentage point decrease in China’s domestic investment growth is associated with an average 0.6 percentage point decrease in Africa’s exports. Those countries heavily dependent on China being the main taker of their commodities are at the bleeding edge of this now negative feedback loop phenomenon. Commodity prices [Crude Oil, Copper, Coal] have crashed more than 20% since the start of the year. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist or an Economist to calculate which countries in are directly in the line of fire. Angola, Congo Brazzavile, DRC, Equatorial Guinea, Zambia, Nigeria and South Africa spring immediately to mind. Notwithstanding comments by the always upbeat and bright-eyed President Adesina of the African Development Bank that Africa is not facing a debt crisis. He told Bloomberg, “Debt is not a problem, it’s very bad debt that’s a problem,”. The point is this. SSA Countries with no exception that I can think off have gorged on borrowing and balance sheets are maxed out. Africa’s sovereign issuance in the Eurobond markets totaled $53bn in 2018 and 2019 and total outstanding debt topped $100bn last year. Debt burdens have increased and affordability has weakened across most of Sub-Saharan Africa, while a shift in debt structures has left some countries more exposed to a financial shock, said Moodys in November last year. Very few of the investments made are within spitting distance of providing an ROI [Return on Investment]. Rising debt service ratios are best exemplified by Nigeria where the Government is spending more than half of its revenue servicing its debt. More than 50% of SSA GDP is produced by South Africa, Nigeria and Angola. South Africa reported that GDP in Q4 2019 shrank by a massive 1.4%. Annual growth at 0.2% is the lowest yearly growth since 2009 and the tape is back at GFC times. The rand which has been in free fall has a lot further to fall in 2020. And this is before the viral infection. Nigeria’s oil revenue is cratering and there is $16bn of ”hot money” parked in short term certificates which is all headed for the Exit as we speak. A Currency Devaluation is now predicted and predictable. South Africa, Nigeria and Angola are poised to dive into deep recession. East Africa which was a bright spot is facing down a locust invasion which according to the FAO could turn 500x by June. It is practically biblical. “If I shut up heaven that there be no rain, or if I command the locusts to devour the land, or if I send pestilence among my people;” – 2 Chronicles 7:13-14 This is a perfect storm. Buckle up, and let’s stop popping the Quaaludes.
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.@flyethiopian Airlines Losses From #Coronavirus Reach $190 Million @business @Habesh_ Africa |
Ethiopian Airlines Group has lost over $190 million as the impact of the coronavirus on global travel hurts Africa’s only consistently profitable airline. “Under the current situation, it is facing huge challenges,” Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in a televised address to the public on Saturday. The carrier has suspended flights to 30 destinations as demand collapses and some countries impose travel bans to try and contain the deadly pandemic. Aviation is one of the hardest hit industries by the virus, facing billions of dollars of lost revenue. In Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country, the coronavirus will be a “huge burden” on the economy, Abiy said, adding that the government will impose economic measures to help the most vulnerable.
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Guinea Forges Ahead With Referendum That Could Entrench Conde @bpolitics Africa |
Guinea is pushing ahead with a controversial referendum on Sunday to revise the constitution, paving the way for President Alpha Conde to seek a third term, despite concern from the European Union and regional heads of state. The vote that takes place on the same day as long-delayed parliamentary elections is widely seen as a power grab by the 82-year-old president, who assumed office in 2010 and is due to step down this year after completing two five-year terms. The opposition has objected to a new constitution that will reset the clock. Presidential elections are due in October. The world’s biggest bauxite exporter has a history of authoritarian rule. Its first two presidents, Sekou Toure and Lansana Conte, died in office after clinging to power for 26 and 24 years respectively. At Conte’s death in 2008, military junta leader Dadis Camara ruled for a year until he was incapacitated by an assassination attempt. While Conde hasn’t explicitly said he plans to seek a third term, the European Parliament has urged him to preserve current presidential term limits, and nations from the U.S. to France have reiterated the need for a democratic transition of power. African leaders are worried too. The West African economic bloc on Tuesday canceled a last-minute visit by the presidents of Niger, Nigeria and Burkina Faso, their second such attempt to discuss the poll with Conde, who canceled the first meeting. This time around, the visit was scrapped over widening travel restrictions and concerns about the coronavirus pandemic. Guinea confirmed its first case, a Belgian national, on March 13. Conde postponed the referendum and parliamentary elections, originally scheduled for March 3, for almost three weeks after international observers questioned whether the vote would be credible. The African Union withdrew its election observer mission earlier this month, citing concerns about the voters roll. Yet Conde has the support of at least one important nation: Russia. Last year, the country’s then-ambassador to Guinea, Alexander Bregadze, openly backed Conde in a speech and said that constitutions “are no dogma, Bible or Koran.” Bregadze has since been named head of United Co. Rusal, the largest producer of aluminum outside China. Rusal sources about one-third of its bauxite from Guinea, the key ingredient in aluminum. “Russian actors are betting on Conde to win, in which case the ties between the two countries could grow even stronger,” said Daphne Piriou, a consultant at London-based strategic advisory firm Africa Practice. Since October, tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets to call on Conde to abandon any potential third-term plans. At least 37 people were killed in crackdowns by security forces, according to human-rights groups. Sunday’s vote will be boycotted by all main opposition parties, with one of its most influential leaders, former Prime Minister Celou Dallein Diallo, predicting a low turnout. The proposals to change the constitution have even caused a rift within the ruling Rally of the Guinean People and prompted three ministers to resign. While Conde has hinted a third term should be allowed, he has so far refused to discuss whether he plans to run again in October, saying the ruling party will select a candidate. He has however openly backed the referendum, arguing that the constitutional changes are necessary because the current law, drawn up under the military junta, is out of date. Conde earlier this week banned flights from high-risk countries, cautioned people against shaking hands and prohibited gatherings of more than 50 people. It’s not clear how authorities will enforce the measures during the vote.
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How Putin Got a New Best Friend Forever in Africa @business Africa |
Alpha Conde of Guinea had a favor to ask Vladimir Putin when the two presidents met at the inaugural Russia-Africa summit in the Black Sea resort of Sochi in October. “I would like, if possible, to spend most of our meeting in a one-in-one format because I have things to say to you that are not worth discussing in such a large group,” the 81-year-old West African leader said. “My pleasure,” Putin, 67, replied as aides began to herd the several dozen officials and reporters in attendance out of the room, leaving him and Conde alone with their respective translators. Russia, on the other hand, is throwing its weight behind Conde’s undeclared campaign. That makes Guinea, holder of the world’s largest deposits of bauxite, a key raw material for making aluminum, the latest focus in a renewed tug-of-war among global powers for influence and profit across resource-rich Africa. The U.S., western Europe and China have advantages over Russia in other areas of the continent. But in Guinea, the Kremlin is leveraging a mix of old Soviet ties, new capitalist might in the form of aluminum giant United Co. Rusal and Putin’s popularity among other leaders. Putin is widely viewed as a kind of “guru” in Africa, Viktor Boyarkin, a former diplomat and ex-Rusal security chief who’s known Conde for a decade, said in an interview in Moscow. “People come to him for advice.” Initially hailed when he came to power for ushering in democratic rule, Conde has cracked down in recent years as opposition has grown. In August, the International Monetary Fund called the poor, mainly Muslim nation of 13 million “a fragile country with heightened risks of social and political instability.” In a speech broadcast on state television, then-Ambassador Alexander Bregadze called Conde “legendary” and argued that constitutions shouldn’t be considered immutable works akin to “The Bible or Koran.” Four months later, Rusal hired the ambassador as its country chief in Guinea. Rusal, which was run by billionaire Oleg Deripaska until U.S. sanctions imposed over his ties to Putin forced him to step down in 2018, sources about 40% of its bauxite from Guinean mines. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia isn’t involved in anything to do with Guinea’s “internal affairs.” Still, Russia’s embrace of Conde has put it at odds with the U.S. and France, both of which have mounted public and private diplomatic campaigns to get him to step down at the end of his term. In August, during a tense exchange in southern France, French President Emmanuel Macron told Conde he was concerned about the tensions that a possible third term could cause in Guinea and warned he’d be watching closely, according to two people familiar with the conversation. Boyarkin blames the protests mainly on “outside forces” and has nothing but praise for Conde. “I consider him a savior for Guinea.” “Since the days of the Soviet Union, you have been alongside us, protecting us,” he told Putin.
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Coronavirus hits tourism industry on Kenya's coast @ReutersAfrica Africa |
MOMBASA,Kenya, March 19 (Reuters) - Restrictions on foreigners coming into Kenya, imposed to curb the spread of coronavirus, have delivered a big hit to the country’s tourism industry, with some hotels on the coast reporting occupancy rates of well below 10%. A spot check in various hotels around the city of Mombasa on Thursday showed most of the hotels now had an average of 7% occupancy rate or less. Tourism is among Kenya’s leading foreign exchange earners, bringing in 163.56 billion shillings ($1.56 billion)last year. Mombasa depends largely on tourism for its livelihood. “We were at 88%, right now we are at 7%. It does not look as if it is growing, and 7% (is) because of the cancellations we had this week,” Victor Shitaka, general manager of Flamingo Beach Hotel, told Reuters. Kenya banned entry on Sunday to people travelling from any country with reported coronavirus cases for 30 days, with the exception of Kenyan citizens and foreigners with residence permits, who will have to undergo a period of self-quarantine. Kenya reported its first case of coronavirus a week ago and now has seven confirmed cases. Curio traders said the situation felt worse than the years from 2012 to 2015 when visitor numbers fell after a spate of attacks claimed by Somalia’s al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab, which wants Kenya to pull its troops out of Somalia. “Just look around, no one else here but you and me. This virus it seems has doomed us and sadly after leaving here, mouths are waiting for us back home to feed them,” Safari Juma, a curio trader, told Reuters in Mombasa.
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Equity Group reports FY 2019 Earnings EPS +13.602% Earnings here Africa |
Par Value: 0.50/- Closing Price: 39.00 Total Shares Issued: 3773674802.00 Market Capitalization: 147,173,317,278 EPS: 5.93 PE: 6.576
Equity Group Holdings PLC FY 2019 results through 31st December 2019 vs. 31st December 2018 FY Kenyan government securities – held to maturity 172.208187b vs. 160.952084b +6.993% FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 366.440456b vs. 297.226915b +23.286% FY Total assets 673.682541b vs. 573.384730b +17.492% FY Customer deposits 482.752134b vs. 422.758486b +14.191% FY Borrowed funds 56.600944b vs. 44.179673b +28.115% FY Total shareholders’ funds 111.776665b vs. 94.957725b +17.712% FY Loans and advances interest income 41.458529b vs. 36.415466b +13.849% FY Government securities interest income 16.872322b vs. 16.301265b +4.293% FY Total interest income 59.722807b vs. 53.230254b +12.197% FY Customer deposits expense [11.072280b] vs. [9.426897b] +17.454% FY Other interest expenses [2.969642b] vs. [1.849890b] +60.531% FY Total interest expenses [14.740446b] vs. [11.808066b] +24.834% FY Net interest income 44.982361b vs. 41.422188b +8.595% FY Fees and commissions income on loans and advances 5.596635b vs. 4.932106b +13.474% FY Other fees and commissions income 15.608742b vs. 13.332054b +17.077% FY FX trading income 3.503661b vs. 3.308959b +5.884% FY Total non-interest income 30.780053b vs. 25.861374b +19.019% FY Total operating income 75.762414b vs. 67.283562b +12.602% FY Loan loss provision [5.302566b] vs. [3.713521b] +42.791% FY Staff costs [12.808766b] vs. [11.455559b] +11.813% FY Other operating expenses [19.583855b] vs. [16.865467b] +16.118% FY Total operating expenses [44.284984b] vs. [38.820612b] +14.076% FY Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items 31.477430b vs. 28.462950b +10.591% FY Profit/ [Loss] after tax and exceptional items 22.560714b vs. 19.823933b +13.805% Basic and diluted EPS 5.93 vs. 5.22 +13.602% Dividend per share 2.50 vs. 2.00 +25.000% Total NPL and advances 31.974770b vs. 21.094581b +51.578%
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Kenyan Shilling Plunges to Record Low as Virus Fears Intensify @economics Africa |
The Kenyan shilling fell to a record low against the dollar ahead of a central bank monetary policy meeting on growing fears the coronavirus will hit the East African economy hard. The shilling fell as much as 1.4% to 106.51 against the dollar in Friday trade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “The coronavirus pandemic is seen hitting tourism receipts due to travel restrictions and slow diaspora remittances,” according to Churchill Ogutu, a senior research analyst at Nairobi-based Genghis Capital. The Central Bank of Kenya’s monetary policy committee may cut the benchmark rate by 75 basis points to 7.5% at its meeting on Monday, according to Genghis.
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