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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 26th of February 2021
 





Context: Eurodollar Mar23 futures (H3) volumes today exceeded one million contracts @EddBolingbroke
World Currencies


Historically, this has only ever been done once before in the 9th eurodollar contract. The October 2014 flash crash

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Once Upon a Time in the West (Italian: C'era una volta il West, "Once upon a time (there was) the West") is a 1968 epic Spaghetti Western film directed by Sergio Leone
Misc.



The film features long, slow scenes with very little dialogue and little happening, broken by brief and sudden violence. 

Leone was far more interested in the rituals preceding violence than in the violence itself. 

The tone of the film is consistent with the arid semidesert in which the story unfolds, and imbues it with a feeling of realism that contrasts with the elaborately choreographed gunplay.

Leone liked to tell the story of a cinema in Paris where the film ran uninterrupted for two years. 

When he visited this theater, he was surrounded by fans who wanted his autograph, as well as the projectionist, who was less than enthusiastic. 

Leone claimed the projectionist told him, "I kill you! The same movie over and over again for two years! And it's so SLOW!"[13]

Fonda did not accept Leone's first offer to play Frank, so Leone flew to New York to convince him, telling him: 

"Picture this: the camera shows a gunman from the waist down pulling his gun and shooting a running child. The camera tilts up to the gunman's face and… it's Henry Fonda." 

After meeting with Leone, Fonda called his friend Eli Wallach, who had co-starred in The Good, the Bad and the Ugly. 

Wallach advised Fonda to do the film, telling him "You will have the time of your life."


When he accepted the role, Fonda came to the set with brown contact lenses and facial hair.

Fonda felt having dark eyes and facial hair would blend well with his character's evil, and also help the audience to accept this "new" Fonda as the bad guy, but Leone immediately told him to remove the contacts and facial hair. 

Leone felt that Fonda's blue eyes best reflected the cold, icy nature of the killer. It was one of the first times in a Western film where the villain was played by the lead actor.


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08-FEB-2021 If you have a "normal" pandemic that is fading, but a "British variant" that is surging, the combined total can look like a flat, manageable situation. @spignal
Misc.



We are at peak vaccine euphoria

Global covid19 cases [are] falling at just under 2%/day @video4me

No one wants to think that

If you have a "normal" pandemic that is fading, but a "British variant" that is surging, the combined total can look like a flat, manageable situation. @spignal

They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.

We've updated our preprint on the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01, aka B.1.1.7, with new statistical and modelling methods. 

Headline: we estimate VOC is 43–82% more transmissible than preexisting variants.

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Data from #Covid19 worldwide on February 24: + 443,429 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 112,553,978 in total @CovidTracker_fr
Misc.


Data from #Covid19 worldwide on February 24: + 443,429 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 112,553,978 in total + 11,973 deaths in 24 hours, i.e. 2,498,203 in total

Conclusions

See the Turn higher 

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The data for Denmark lie almost perfectly on a line. Epidemiology can be hard, but not when it is this predictable. @TWenseleers [We can extrapolate from here]
Misc.


These sigmoidal logistic curves can be linearised by showing them on a logit scale (log(odds to encounter the variant)=log(prop 501Y.V1/prop other variants)). The data for Denmark lie almost perfectly on a line. Epidemiology can be hard, but not when it is this predictable.

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Algorithmic Master [Blaster] and Sun Tzu Maestro
Misc.





''The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting''

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.2135

Dollar Index 90.354

Japan Yen 106.06

Swiss Franc 0.9051

Pound 1.3938

Aussie 0.7822

India Rupee 73.1155

South Korea Won 1125.465

Brazil Real 5.532

Egypt Pound 15.6998

South Africa Rand 14.9234

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27 NOV 17 :: "Wow! What a Ride!"
World Currencies



Or as T.S Eliot said in The Hollow Men 

Between the idea

And the reality

Between the motion

And the act

Falls the Shadow

For Thine is the Kingdom.

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I think @CathieDWood is blowing up her fund @TheMarketDog
World Of Finance




Sold her most stable cos

$AMZN 25%

$AAPL 18%

$CRM 100% ($100M)

$RGN 6%

$NVS

$TSM 33%

Added on her biggest overvalued

$TSLA down to 6% of port. from 9% despite buying 

Adding $TDOC $SQ $BEAM $TWTR




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Ethiopia: Eritrean troops’ massacre of hundreds of Axum civilians may amount to crime against humanity @amnesty
Africa



Amnesty International interviewed 41 survivors and witnesses to mass killings in November

Troops carried out extrajudicial executions, indiscriminate shelling and widespread looting

Satellite imagery analysis shows evidence consistent with new burial sites

Eritrean troops fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray state systematically killed hundreds of unarmed civilians in the northern city of Axum on 28-29 November 2020, opening fire in the streets and conducting house-to-house raids in a massacre that may amount to a crime against humanity, Amnesty International said

Witnesses could easily identify the Eritrean forces. They drove vehicles with Eritrean license plates, wore distinctive camouflage and footwear used by the Eritrean army and spoke Arabic or a dialect of Tigrinya not spoken in Ethiopia. 

Some bore the ritual facial scars of the Ben Amir, an ethnic group absent from Ethiopia. 

Finally, some of the soldiers made no secret of their identity; they openly told residents they were Eritrean.


On 29 November, Eritrean soldiers shot at anyone who tried to move the bodies of those killed.

The soldiers also continued to carry out house-to-house raids, hunting down and killing adult men, as well as some teenage boys and a smaller number of women. 

One man said he watched through his window and saw six men killed in the street outside his house on 29 November. 

He said the soldiers lined them up and shot from behind, using a light-machine gun to kill several at a time with a single bullet.


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His push for“unity” could achieve the exact opposite-disintegration of Ethiopian empire @GudinaMerera
Africa



Ethiopia is once again in crisis. Abiy's efforts to re-centralise all state powers & dismantle the multi-ethnic federation made Ethiopia a centre of instability & conflict in z Horn of Africa. His push for“unity” could achieve the exact opposite-disintegration of Ethiopian empire

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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa



Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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United States urged Eritrea for #humanrights situation, to withdraw their troops immediately from Ethiopia’s Tigray region.
Africa



Statement of the United States of America

As delivered by Daniel Kronenfeld

United Nations Human Rights Council 46th Session

Geneva, February 24, 2021

Our question is the following: Does the Eritrean military have sufficient control over its troops to prevent them from committing human rights abuses?

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Summary of Active COVID-19 Cases in Africa 333,364 @BeautifyData
Africa


-35.89% % below 520,000 record high from January 2021 

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The SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction number (R) in SA has been slowly increasing but still remains below 1 at 0.8. @lrossouw
Africa


However 2 provinces are now close to 1. Free State (left) seems to be just below 1.  Northern Cape (right) is creeping over 1. 

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President @MagufuliJP in his call to local media to only report "good news." @Chahali
Africa


#Tanzania: "Tanzanian journalists must be patriotic... Weird things are happening in some countries but you wouldn't see their media reporting about them..." President  @MagufuliJP  in his call to local media to only report "good news."

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States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
Africa



Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah 

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...” 

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

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The first known emergence of Ebola Zaire—the hottest subtype of Ebola virus— happened in September, 1976, when the virus erupted simultaneously in fifty-five villages near the Ebola River.
Africa



The first known emergence of Ebola Zaire—the hottest subtype of Ebola virus— happened in September, 1976, when the virus erupted simultaneously in fifty-five villages near the Ebola River. 

Ebola Zaire is a slate-wiper in humans. It killed eighty- eight per cent of the people it infected. 

Apart from rabies and the human immunodeficiency virus, H.I.V., which causes aids, this was the highest rate of mortality that has been recorded for a human virus. 

Ebola was spread mainly among family members, through contact with bodily fluids and blood. 

Many of the people in Africa who came down with Ebola had handled Ebola-infected cadavers. It seems that one of Ebola’s paths wends to the living from the dead.

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Zimbabwe’s inflation rate stood at 321.59% year-on-year in February compared to 362.63% the previous month Zimstats said on Thursday.
Africa




On a month-on-month basis, prices increased by 3.45% compared to 5.43% during the same period.

The central bank has forecast annual inflation will end the year below 10%, which economic analysts say is too optimistic.


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COVID-19 numbers in Kenya last week had the highest weekly numbers for this year and positivity rate also staying upwards of 5-7% @DrAhmedKalebi
Africa



COVID-19 numbers in Kenya not looking good at the moment with a slowly & steadily rising curve of daily new confirmed cases being recorded of late, whereby last week had the highest weekly numbers for this year and positivity rate also staying upwards of 5-7%



Conclusions



Somalia and probably Tanzania at the peak of their infection curve 

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KenGen Kenya reports HY Earnings EPS 0.77 versus 1.24
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied



Par Value:                  2.50/-

Closing Price:           4.70

Total Shares Issued:          6243873667.00

Market Capitalization:        29,346,206,235

EPS:             2.79

PE:                 1.685

  

KenGen HY Earnings through 31st December 2020 versus through December 2019 

HY Revenue 21.801b versus 22.361b

HY Revenue net of reimbursable expenses 20.567b versus 18.914b +9%

HY Depreciation and Amortisation [5.738b] [5.708b]

HY Steam Costs [1.527b] versus [1.661b]

HY Operating Expenses [5.825b] versus [5.569b]

HY Operating Profit 7.275b versus 6.700b

HY Finance Income 829m versus 723m

HY Finance Costs [1.232b] versus [1.145b]

HY Profit Before Tax 6.872b versus 6.278b

HY Income Tax Expense [1.817b] versus +1.892b

HY Profit After Tax 5.055b versus 8.170b

HY EPS 0.77 versus 1.24 

Balance as at 31st December 10.793b versus 5.229b

Commentary 

Energy Unit Sales increased by 5% for the half  Year ended 31st Dec 2020

Peak Electricity Demand 1976 MW during the period versus 1882 MW

Energy Sales from Hydro increased to 51% versus 40% [4.807b versus 4.474b]

Thermal generation declined from 6% to 2% 

Total Revenue declined by 3% 

Geothermal Revenue increased by 14% [14.056b versus 12.280b]

Conclusions

Solid results however There was no repeat of the Income Tax benefit 

HY Income Tax Expense [1.817b] versus +1.892b

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Kenya Power & Lighting Company Ltd reports HY 2020 EPS 0.07 versus 0.35
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied



Par Value:                  20/-

Closing Price:           1.42

Total Shares Issued:          1951467045.00

Market Capitalization:        2,771,083,204

EPS:             0.13

PE:                 10.923

  

The energy company in charge of national transmission, distribution and retail of electricity throughout Kenya.

Half Year Results through 31st December 2020 versus 31st December 2019

HY Revenue 69.014b versus 69.607b

HY Cost of Sales [45.578b] [45.516b]

HY Gross Margin 23.436b versus 24.091b

HY [Transmission and distribution costs] [18.675b] versus [22.977b]

HY Operating Profit 8.330b versis 4.914b

HY Finance Costs [8.057b] versus [3.835b]

HY Profit before Tax 332m versus 1.139b

HY Profit after Tax 138m versus 692m

HY EPS 0.07 versus 0.35 

Cash and Cash Equivalents 1.723b versus [6.004b]

Commentary 

Electricity sales grew marginally +0.7% from 4,167 GWh recorded in 2019 to 4,196 GWh in period under review

sharp decline in energy consumption at the onset of COVID19 pandemic

Transmission and distribution costs decreased to 18.675b from 22.977b

Finance Costs increased to 8.057b from 3.835b due to depreciation of Shilling leading to an unrealised FX Loss

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And they are also enjoying 0 interest large trade receivable debt from Kengen. @moneyacademyKE
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


They benefited from the moratorium because they didn’t incur additional costs from ODs they could have taken had they been paying interest. And they are also enjoying 0 interest large trade receivable debt from Kengen.

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East African Portland Cement Company reports HY 2020 Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Par Value:                  5/-

Closing Price:           9.50

Total Shares Issued:          90000000.00

Market Capitalization:        855,000,000

EPS:             -30.77

PE:                 -0.309

  

A key provider of Cement and Cement products in Kenya for over 70 years.

East African Portland Cement reports HY Earnings through 31st Dec 2020 versus through 31st Dec 2019 

HY Revenue 1.389511b versus 1.483572b

HY Cost of Sales [1.723828b] versus [1.797456b]

HY Gross Loss [334.317m] versus [313.884m]

Admin and Selling Expenses [540.541m] versus [1.074954b]

HY Loss from Operating Activities [836.656m] versus [1.383242b]

HY Loss Before Tax [1.105987b] versus [1.634979b]

HY Loss After Tax [1.035339b] versus [1.575403b]

HY EPS [11.36] versus [17.55]

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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